Trend Forecasting Report

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2733 Words


Ejide Tondu N0725971

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Contents Key drivers High street retailers Instore interviewers Concepts The magazine Pen portrait Editorial Conclusion

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Introduction

This report explores the oversized fashion trend. By analysing the cause of the trend and how it has shaped the trend through influencers opinions, the high-street and runway interpretations and celebrity culture. Finally, the trends current position within the fashion industry and its future growth. The industry of fashion is always on a transformative shift. (The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company, 2018). This is illustrated through the raised expectation of consumer experiences, the increased convenience of access to clothing, and the increased importance of celebrity culture. These being the leading factors as to why the trend cycle is on a constant rotation. The fashion industry is fluctuated with a mass of uncertainty, which is mirrored through trends. Trends are heavily influential on the fashion industry as they alter pathways of fashion, which can further it to indirectly shift social constructs.

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Since the life cycle of a fashion trend is tightening and condensing, the period of time between a trend’s appearance and disappearance is faster than ever. (Gordon, 2017)

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What is a trend?

A trend is a “general direction in which something is developing or changing” (Oxford Dictionaries | English, n.d.). Trends have the capability to have a long- or shortterm influence. These trends can change through; social cultural, economic or technological factors. In terms of trends within fashion, they are significantly shaped by social affairs. For example, the widespread acceptance of women’s trousers. The trend began in the early 1900s, growing to what has now become a norm for casual wear today. Iconic designers such as Coco Chanel, designed pants in contrast to her skirts and dresses, to help change the stigmatised views on what women wore around the World War I era. Other examples being; historical and cultural impacts i.e. the evolution of hip hop culture, and economic factors such as Brexit, determine the outcome of a trend. Nowadays trends have recently reverted back to previous classic trends, but in an altered state. The entertainment industry (music, television and film), has inspired a mass of trends, the most notorious being streetwear.

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Life of a trend Henrik Vejlgaard’s Diamond-shaped trend model, represents the ebb and flow of a trend. This model is split into seven different profiles; Trenddrivers, Trendsetters, Early adopters, Early majority, Late majority, Conservatives, Anti-innovators. (Raymond, 2010). This model reflects the evolution and volume of a trend. Fashion trends often start by trend drivers stemming from a point of discovery, a new turn of events, environmental, social, cultural and political changes, a catalyst triggered conversation and thought or an invention of a product. This then follows by trend setters taking this pure inspiration, using osmosis, to form products. These products then influence the growth of trends, which filters down to a mainstream level, allowing consumers to become aware of these trends. This then depicts the expansion and life of a trend.

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Life of a trend

Dating back, trends used to trickle down. These trends usually start with designer catwalk shows, getting picked up more widely, trickling down through the fashion markets to high-street fashion retailers. Then reaches saturation. Fashion is now more complex, through the use of social media and technology fashion trends now go from the street up. ‘Trickle/Bubble-up’, “ideas from the street fashion and cultural subgroups, bubble up through the hierarchy of fashion eventually reaching the top” (Posner, 2015). Products might exist but then become trends widely adopted by the mass, due to things such as observation of street level. Whereas Trickle across theory occurs, when fashion trends are adopted by all markets simultaneously. Larger scale trends tend to hit all different types of the market at the same time. Didn’t start upstream, started to appear everywhere due to lifestyle changes. But due to many additional influential factors it’s hard to determine how trends will now form.

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Haute Couture High-end fashion (Luxury designer/Premium brands)

Middle market (Affordable luxury retail brands)

Mass market (High street mutiple retailers)

Value market (Value/discount retailers)

Haute Couture High-end fashion (Luxury designer/Premium brands)

Middle market (Affordable luxury retail brands)

Mass market (High street mutiple retailers)

Value market (Value/discount retailers)

Haute Couture High-end fashion (Luxury designer/Premium brands)

Middle market (Affordable luxury retail brands)

Mass market (High street mutiple retailers)

Value market (Value/discount retailers)

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Trend Forecasting Fashion forecasting is incredibly important in the industry. Benefits reaped from this includes foreseeing future trends, and the direction in which current and future trends may be heading. Trends are constantly evolving and can differ on levels of categories; fads, classic or seasonal trends. These depict the lifespans and saturation points of trends. Trend forecasting can be defined as “a creative and analytical process, involving not only observation of changes in fashion, but also the analysis and synthesis of information from an array of sources inside and outside the fashion business.” (Eundeok, Ann Marie and Hyejeong, 2013). Trend forecasting is predicting when to introduce or reintroduce trends to the consumer. “The prediction of mood, behavior and buying habits of the consumer at particular time of season.” (Singh, n.d.) Trend forecasting is the endless analysis of archival patterns, within fashion. Through the inspection of past trends, fashion forecasters help to keep brands in an executive position, as they are able to predict the direction of fashion. Therefore, Trend forecasting improves the overall efficiency of fashion marketing, due to brands having the possibility to manipulate the thread of what the consumer desires next. Essentially, this strategy increases the probability of consumers buying the merchandise, which aids financial income for the brand.

Trend forecasting can’t accurately predict the future of fashion and fashion trends. However, it is a tool used through agencies and brands to premeditate and predict existing or upcoming trends as well as forecasting probable trends for future seasons. Fashion innovators need to introduce trends that are relatable to the mass consumer. The fashion Industry is fast moving, and the consumer is changing. There is a mass amount of reasonings which contribute to the need for both retailers and marketeers to understand the market place. For instance, the merge between fashion and technology. Technological developments within society have created trends such as: reactive fashion, a trend that wouldn’t have been considered years ago. Retailers need to have a knowledge and understanding of consumers and trends in the market. In order to do so, they use trend forecasting to help maximise profit. Timing is key in terms of marketing mix. The fundamentals; the right product, at the right price, at the right time. Trend forecasting can’t accurately predict the future of fashion and fashion trends. However, it is a tool used through agencies and brands to premeditate and predict existing or upcoming trends as well as forecasting probable trends for future seasons.

Forecasting is both an art and a science. It is an art because forecasts are often based on intuition, good judgement and creativity. It is also a science because forecasters use analytical concepts and models to predict forthcoming trends in systematic ways.

Sproles and Burns (1994) cited in Eundeok, K (2013)

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FASHION FORECASTING FASHION FORECASTING FASHION FORECASTING FASHION FORECASTING FASHION FORECASTING FASHION FORECASTING

FASHION FORECASTING FASHION FORECASTING FASHION FORECASTING FASHION FORECASTING FASHION FORECASTING FASHION FORECASTING

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The role of media Fast fashion is at its peak having a detrimental effect on high end retailers. Fast fashion retailers have recently been under scrutiny for creating cheap ‘copies’ of high-end fashion products. Fashion watchdogs monitor any upcoming trends or products, they then notify these fast fashion brands enabling them to peddle previously made looks. However, through vices of social media, high-end brands have adapted, “still satisfying their customer, the see now, buy now direct-to-consumer fashion model has evolved.” (Claire, 2017). Shop now syndrome has now influenced a mass of consumers, leading to factors such as impulse buying. Consumers will always have purchasing power. With the help of media platforms, there are seamless ways for brands to advertise to their consumers and for consumers to purchase products, i.e. Instagram product tags. Fashion watchdogs monitor any upcoming trends or products, they then notify these fast fashion brands enabling them to peddle previously made looks. Fashion as a business heavily relies on media as a form of communication to influence consumer behaviour. Media as a marketing tool has been used for the promotion of products for brands, brand awareness as well as consumer engagement. Media platforms enable the growth and expansion of trends. Through the use of social media, the identification of trends is seen as an important factor in influencing customers as stated, “The platforms through which promotional media are conveyed are important toward influencing purchase behaviour.” (Shephard et al., 2016). Social media determines the development of trends, due to the influx of fashion bloggers, social influencers and celebrity endorsements. Consumers are fashion conscious. Living in a society consumed by fashion, consumers turn to social feeds or influencers for latest trends or seasonal looks. There is a massive influential force that social media and influencers have on consumers. These platforms can heavily affect one’s intent to purchase.

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The The The The The The The The

The The The The The The The The

‘90s ‘90s ‘90s ‘90s ‘90s ‘90s ‘90s ‘90s

‘90s ‘90s ‘90s ‘90s ‘90s ‘90s ‘90s ‘90s

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Girl group TLC (T-Boz, LeftEye, Chilli)

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Trend Analysis The oversized trend stemmed from the urban culture. The trend is about youth and rebellion, introducing the loss of natural silhouettes and vibrant prints and colour. Fashion is an indicator of our generation. Fashion is now heavily based on cultural upbringing as well as societal classes. For the youth especially music and fashion interlinked. We’ve gone back to the ‘90s. ‘90s fashion has been a trend that’s impacted the world of fashion for decades now, with ‘90’s hip-hop style being at center of it all. Oversized fashion was born as a sub-trend derived from hip hop culture, which has now become its own trend now innovated to fit into any theme or category of fashion.

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Kris Kross Kross took styling to another level wearing their oversized garments backwards putting their own spin of the trend.

Denim overall Denim overalls were popularised.

Tommy Hilfiger runway show, S/S ’97

Tomboy The feminine tomboy. It popularised the oversized clothing trend for females, female artists TLC & Aaliyah, rebranded femininity. Oversized hats, flannel shirts and overalls.

Chanel A/W ’91. Karl Lagerfeld designed a line heavily influenced by rap culture within the early ‘90s. Featuring oversized caps, bubble flight jackets and exaggerated bling accessories. 26.


Thrift fashion Dismissed designer clothing mixing thrift to create ensembled looks.

Hood by Air. Style drawn from the hip hop and art to create this high-end street wear.

Fenty x Puma Fall ‘16 Balenciaga Fall ‘18

Yeezy x Adidas (NYFW) A/W ‘16

Vetements FW17/18

Timeline

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Yeezy show, New York Fashion Week AW16

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Mass culture Hip Hop culture now represents a mass culture. It represents what once was and now is; political hardship, the oppressed, the rebellious youth, and now a global community of all ages, genders and economic classes. “While the hip-hop community has long been enamoured with the fashion world, the appreciation has been reciprocated in recent years as luxury labels including Balmain and Saint Laurent embrace hip-hop artists and mimic some of their aesthetics.” (Berlinger, 2018). It was only inevitable that consumers, influencers, celebrities and retailers would have adopted the trend of oversized clothing. Due to the pressures of society these luxury brands needed to adapt to consumers interests within that fashion era. Without doing so they would’ve missed out on a global opportunity.

Luxury retailers have continued to keep the essence of oversized clothing within the fashion world, whilst still appealing to today’s society in more innovative ways. The oversized trend that started from the streets throughout the 90’s and later popularised by todays fashion industry, has been on a steady incline. This has led to high-end brands adopting the traits of the trend inspiring their own pieces which overall saw the trickle upwards of a trend once started on the streets ending up on catwalks. “It is trickle across theory where the lure of aesthetic experience has given rise to everyday fashion and cognitive engagement.” (Saravanan & Nithyaprakash, 2016). Oversized fashion has also trickled across due to the trend becoming mainstream; all social groups have adopted this trend not being secular to a particular fashion market.

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AW17 campaign, Marc Jacobs called on New-York based photographer and filmmaker Tyler Mitchell. The collection was inspired by ‘Hip-Hop Evolution’– a documentary about hip hop culture in 90s New York, andfeatures tracksuit two-pieces, oversized sweaters, fur-collared jackets and bucket hats. (Seaton, n.d.)

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Dapper Dan x Gucci Dapper Dan ‘The hip hop Tailor of Harlem’ used designer wear and transformed them into new pieces of clothing for iconic hip hop artists at the time. “taking fabrics from popular luxury brands such as Gucci, MCM, Louis Vuitton, and Fendi, and repurposing them into street-ready silhouettes like tracksuits, bomber jackets, and puffy-shouldered coats.” (DeLeon, 2018).

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“From the Dapper Dan archive created with the House’s refined materials. Featuring a new yellow Gucci logo, t he pieces were shot by Ari Marcopoulos on young faces from Harlem. “ (Gucci.com, n.d.)

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Oversized Suits

One style within the oversized trend that has emerged is oversized office wear. This is the integration of formal wear with elements of street wear. Marrying the two levels of fashion together forming this edgy/niche look. This is ironic due to factors such as social classes; previously fashion defined what social class you were in; this style now defies that concept.

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- virgil Abloh


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- Robyn Rihanna Fenty


Oversized Jackets

Oversized Pants/ Dungarees

Oversized Trainers

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Key Brands Beforehand, the oversized trend was only a theme within ‘90s fashion. There were key clothing elements to the trend such as the ‘baggy’ oversized denim jeans and jackets, oversized tees and the shell suits. The oversized fashion style had been on the backburner in terms of trends during the mid 2000’s, due to factors such as stricter societal norms. “Hip hop has become an international, multibillion-dollar institution that has virtually changed the nature of the music and entertainment industry.” (Price, 2006).

Sportswear brands like Nike and Adidas were always important in the hip-hop style uniform, and as hip-hop evolved.” (DeLeon, 2018).

The commercialisation of hip hop stemmed from brands such as Champion, Fila, and Supreme. In addition to brands such as Adidas being at the forefront in terms of leading brands within streetwear. Wearing Luxury logo’s such as these, signified success within the hip-hop community for rappers. Till this day that same notion still stands with streetwear brands; wearing exclusive highCultural shift, street culture over a period of end brands such as Off-white and Bape, time has evolved to become more labels you as a 'hypebeast'. mainstream. Where previously the style had “A hypebeast is a mostly derogatory slang been secular to the urban culture. word for someone, usually a man, who follows Associations towards the look of the trend trends in fashion, particularly streetwear, for has changed, formerly being linked to the purpose of making a social statement.” having a lower status within society. The (Everything After Z by Dictionary.com, n.d.). style was a reflection of urban life; political inequalities, police brutality and racial prejudice.

Lining up with your friends for the latest Supreme drop is a lot like what lining up for the latest album from your favourite band used to be.

(The Business of Fashion, 2018)

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Key Drivers “I mean that’s why I wear big baggy clothes, nobody can have an opinion because they haven't seen what’s underneath.” - (CALVIN KLEIN, 2019). Billie Eilish.

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Hence, linking to the theme of individualism. Oversized clothing within hip-hop culture, was a sign of self-expression, freedom of dress and the denial of conventional dressing. Even though the clothing held a lot of stigma towards it, the urban community used it as a means to celebrate hip hop culture. This also connotes to today’s society, with social conformation and expectations of how one should dress, and how the oversized trend has been an underlying factor to the progression of individualism.

@coco_pinkprincess

@rickeythompson

@dolcetelmah

@denzeldion

Celebrity endorsements such as Rihanna’s Fenty x Puma line as well as Kanye’s Adidas x Yeezy line has inspired a mass of mainstream markets.

@jaimetoutcheztoi

The trend has also reached celebrity and influencer culture. The social followings and social status of these influencers is an additional factor to progression of the trend. These influencers use their social media to showcase their oversized looks individual to them; stimulating the growth of the trend. This brings awareness to the trend as well as promoting different styles and brands for it. Major celebrities such as Billie Eilish and Jaden Smith, have definitely played a part to mainstreaming this trend.

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Photo graphy - JONATHAN DANIEL PRYCE


Street Street Street Street Street Street Street Street Street Street Street Street

style style style style style style style style style style style style

Photo graphy - JONATHAN DANIEL PRYCE

FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW FW

Fashion week is an event that allows influencers a nd celebrities to showcase their own looks for particular trends of the season. With fashion week in full force, photographers go out on the streets to capture these looks.

Above are looks influenced by the oversized clothing trend, at the A/W 2019 New York fashion week. 47.


High-street retailers Primary research was conducted in order to explore the oversize trend within high-street stores in Nottingham city centre. The oversized clothing was trending within a mass of stores when looking on the high street. It’s evident that high-street retailers knew of the mass appeal this trend has to consumers. When observing store fronts, a multitude of the mannequins were clothed in the oversize trend, either having just singular pieces such as oversized pants, or full outfits. All the high-end stores evidently were trying to appeal to the millennial market, due to the stylisation of the mannequins and stocks within store. Key items being oversized trousers, paired with an oversized longsleeved t-shirt and chunky trainers to finish the look. With the trend expanding to different areas of clothing such as the extension to formal wear, the trend is now broadening in the mainstream market. This could be an indication of a lengthier trend life cycle. This an additional factor to trend awareness for consumers; leading to the probability of the trend becoming commercialised, becoming part of common apparel.

Retailers such as Urban Outfitters were heavily stocked with the trend. The visual merchandising within the store would immediately grab a consumer’s attention. The trend was staggered throughout the store, with there being a variation of different items. In comparison to stores such as Fat face and Ted Baker, who as brands are conscious of the trend, but haven’t fully adopted that within their stores. Having just a few items such as boiler suits or denim overalls for the summer season. Reasons for that being, target market. These brands target an older demographic, who wouldn’t necessarily purchase clothing from stores such as Urban Outfitters. Specifically, for the oversized trend, millennials are now more inclined to shop from charity and vintage stores such as Braderie and Wild clothing. Purchasing from vintage stores, gives the consumer a sense of exclusivity, as these are pre-owned dated items. Especially for the youth that are more fashion conscious or trend chasers, there is easy access to the trend, as a lot of the clothing within the store can date back to the 90’s.

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In-store interviews Q:How often do you change the clothing within the store to fit with current trends? Um. Weekly, because with most retail stores, there are always trends popping up and people want the new fashion to buy into. Q:When first did you notice the oversized trend? I first noticed it when it started in 90s hip hop culture and as time went on higher profile people like celebrities and designers such as Kayne West, Rihanna and Off-white picked it up and made the trend mainstream. Q: How popular is the trend within Urban Outfitters? It is quite popular, as looking at their looks on their website and instore you can see that oversized fashion is on the rise. Q:What type of people have you noticed buy from the oversized trend? Mainly young people, the young people at Urban Outfitters usually have money! most young people usually go to thrift or vintage stores. But personally, I would wanna save my money so I would go vintage. Q:Have you ever bought from this trend? If so from what stores? I’ve never really bought from the trend, but I usually get my stuff from vintage stores or family. Waste not want not. Haha. Q: Do you think the trend will die out? Nah, cause fashion is always recycling. It’s harder to think of new trends so people use old ideas adding a modern twist on it. Look the 90s has come back and this is stuff a couple of years ago people wouldn’t have thought of wearing.

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Mood Board

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Concepts The name of the editorial is ‘Project XL’. A key theme noticed from the trend was the 90’s comeback. From this spawned the idea of the editorial to have a 90s theme with a modern twist to it. We wanted to reflect the youth and the outcasts of today’s society, as well as those who make their own rules and celebrate individuality. We also linked the same values as hip-hop fashion. Our location was based on a ‘recess’ setting. The series represented 6 kids within school facing realistic balances between conformity and individuality.

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The magazine

The chosen publication for this editorial is i-D magazine. i-D magazine is a British magazine that enthused on art, fashion and music within youth culture. The publication targets the youth that are culture and fashion conscious, whom would be knowledgeable on trends.

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Pen portrait Kiyala 22 Studies Fashion management Lives in London (Brixton) Loves vintage fashion Shops and sells on depop Fashion concious

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£5.00

$10.99

i-deas, fashion, music, people

The oversized issue

Project XL


Spring 2019 The oversized issue

the bigger, the better The prime era is making a massive comeback. Small, medium and Large are a thing of the past. Extra-large is coming in fast. In an ode to the 90’s, the undisputed oversized style offers a statement of individuality and culture. In the emergence of oversized fashion, the scenes of the UK pay homage to the flash and fare of the New York hip-hop era. With history rewriting itself, we pay tribute to the fashion elite and icons of that time. The updated revival, the trend has been handpicked by designers such as Karl Lagerfield, Tommy Hilfiger, Vetements, Fenty x Puma, Jacquemus and Off-white. Living in a world where modern fashion demands inclusivity; the models are of a diverse range. i-D 57


Photography – Nick Lowe Photographer’s Assistant – Morgan Arnold Styling - Ejide Tondu Models – Ejide Tondu, Grace Boateng, Niamh Wynne, Ketachi Uba-Ifegwu, Priyal Dodhia and Morgan Arnold


i-D 59

Ejide wears COLLUSION Unisex t-shirt £5.00 COLLUSION x005 straight leg jean £20.00 ASOS DESIGN midweight chain £6.00 ASOS DESIGN narrow square glasses £12.00 Nike Air Force 1 ‘07 £74.95

Morgan wears COLLUSION Unisex t-shirt £5.00 COLLUSION x005 straight leg jean £20.00 ASOS DESIGN midweight chain £6.00 ASOS DESIGN narrow square glasses £12.00 CAT Footwear Intruder Pirate Black Trainers £85.00



(Left to right) Morgan wears COLLUSION Unisex long sleeve tie dye t-shirt £15.00 COLLUSION x005 straight leg jean £20.00 ASOS DESIGN midweight chain £6.00 Hetanshi wears COLLUSION Unisex long sleeve tie dye t-shirt £15.00 Ejide wears COLLUSION Unisex tie dye t-shirt with print £12.00 COLLUSION x005 straight leg jean £20.00 Nike Air Force 1 ‘07 £74.95 Grace wears COLLUSION Unisex tie dye t-shirt with print £12.00 ASOS DESIGN faux fur bucket hat in white £14.00 ASOS DESIGN midweight chain £6.00 Pretty little thing PLT camel chunky platform trainers £35.00


The class of XL ‘19 ‘Let loose this season’

The oversize clothing trend has outsized the fashion industry – literally. In a logomania culture, featuring brands such as Champion and Nike, the models wear pieces from the ASOS- Collusion range, Nike and Champion. Dripping in the decadence of the mid 90’s hip-hop culture, the oversized fashion trend, ministered the urban community by the liberation of style choice – and originality.


Conclusion To conclude the oversized trend has reached out to the mass market, percolating all types of demographics, genders and social classes. Even when considering social hierarchy, the trend managed to trickle up from the streets to the luxury market. The cultural bias within the 90’s led to one of the biggest trends, forming continuous update revival. Living in a highly saturated culture, brands need to stay relevant to their consumers, especially the younger audience, this being 16-24. “Generations Y and Z are already the main growth engine of the luxury goods market, driving 85 percent of luxury expansion last year. By 2025, they are expected to account for 45 percent of total luxury goods spending.” (Business of Fashion., 2018). Which will ultimately add to the longevity of the trend. The liberation of style choice and the crucial role the trend played in 90s fashion, led to its comeback and the continuation of the trend. Luxury fashion is continuously showcasing these trends on the runway and undoubtedly will be forthcoming. But it leaves the question will it ever get too big?

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