KIHAS 2013 Presentation

The 32nd Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations

Dr. Stephen Klineberg The Basic Presentation of the 2013 “Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey�

1900-1982

Houston was basically a “one-horse� industrial town focused

2

on refining hydrocarbons into gasoline and petrochemicals and servicing the oil and gas industry.

“The ideological thrust in Houston in the twentieth century has been

anti-government, anti-regulation, anti-planning, anti-taxes, anti-anything

that seemed to represent, in fact or fantasy, an expansion of the public sector or a limitation on the economic prerogatives and activities of the city’s business community.�

(Robert Fisher 1990)

3

The Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2013) More than three decades of systematic interviews with

The New Economy

representative samples of Harris County residents,

Quality of Place

focused on three central issues:

The Demographic Revolution

4

Percent increase in before-tax income

Two contrasting economic eras

110%

116%

111%

114%

100%

99% 86%

63%

The 30 years after World War II were a period of broad-based prosperity.

50% 43%

The past 30 years have been marked by growing concentrations of wealth.

-10%

-3%

2%

Bottom 20%

Second 20%

5%

15%

Middle 20%

Fourth 20%

Top 20%

Top 5%

The 30 years after World War II (1949-1979) The past 30 years (1980-2011)

5

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social And Economic Supplements.

Mean Household Income Received By Each Fifth And The Top 5 Percent, Inflation Adjusted. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

23.9% (1928) 23.5% (2007) Share of total before-tax income flowing to the top one percent (1913-2010)

25%

20%

15%

19.8% (2010) 10%

5%

0

1920 6

1930

1940

1950

1960

Source: Piketty and Saez, based on IRS data Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

The New Economy

The new economy (2013)

“For a person to be successful in today’s world, it is necessary to get an education beyond high school.”

73%

The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now largely disappeared.

25%

“There are many ways to succeed with no more than a high school diploma.”

2% Don’t know/Can’t say

7

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

Positive perceptions of job opportunities in the Houston area (1982-2013) 100%

Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good”

71% of Houstonians in 1982

gave positive ratings to job opportunities in Houston.

50%

43%

66% 68%

58%

58%

42%

48% 41%

36%

35% 25%

11% 0% 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 8

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

The official unemployment rates in Harris County (1982-2013) 11.0 10.0

9.8

10.1

8.6

9.0 8.0

8.4

7.8 7.3 6.8

7.0

6.6

6.8

6.0 5.0 4.0

4.0

4.3

3.0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 9

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

Assessments of personal financial situations (1982-2013) 70%

62% 56% 54%

59%

51%Will be “better off”

45%

financially three or four years down the road.

41% 28%

27%

26% Personal financial

23%

21%

10%

situation has been “getting better” in the last few years.

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

10

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

Two measures of belief in the “American work ethic” (1982-2013) Percent of respondents agreeing 100%

“If you work hard in this city, eventually you will succeed.”

88%

89%

81% 73%

71% “People who work hard

and live by the rules are not getting a fair break these days.”

46%

20% 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

11

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

What is the biggest problem facing people in the Houston area today?

16% Crime

37% Economy

15% Traffic

26%

21% 32% Other

2012 12

23%

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

30% Other

2013 The New Economy

Growing support for government efforts to reduce the inequalities Percent of respondents agreeing 65%

58% 51%

52% 50%

45%

50%

41%

35%

24%

Welfare benefits generally give poor people a chance to get started again.

Government has a responsibility to help reduce the inequalities in America.

Government should do more to solve our country’s problems.

0% 94 13

09

13 09

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

11

13 96

11

The New Economy

13

Arts, culture, sports Air and water quality Green spaces, trees Bayous Transportation Urban centers

Quality of Place

Hiking, boating, birding

Concerns about crime, traffic and air pollution (2005-2013) “Very worried” that you or a member of your family will become the victim of a crime.

“Very concerned” about the effects of air pollution on your family’s health.

Traffic has generally “gotten worse” over the past three years.

Living conditions in the Houston area have “gotten better” or “stayed the same.”

79%

76% 66% 56% 50% 41% 33%

31%

05 15

07

09

11

13 05

07

09

11

13 05

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

07

09

11

13 05

07

9

11

Quality of Place

13

Life in the Houston area compared to other U.S. metro areas (2005-2013)

“Compared to most other metropolitan areas in the country, is Houston a better or worse place to live?”

100%

78%

85%

86%

89%

90%

“Much/slightly better” 50%

17% 8%

7%

6%

“Much/slightly worse”

0%

05

16

9%

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

07

09

11

Quality of Place

13

The City of Houston 2.1 million 600 sq. mi.

Baltimore 0.6 million 81 sq. mi.

Chicago 2.7 million 228 sq. mi.

Detroit 0.7 million 139 sq. mi.

Philadelphia 1.5 million 134 sq. mi.

17

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place

The 10-county Houston metropolitan region 5.9 million 10,062 sq. mi.

New Jersey 8.8 million 8,729 sq. mi.

18

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place

Housing preferences (2008-2012) "If you could choose where to live in the Houston area, which would you prefer?"

A single-family home with a big yard, where you would need to drive almost everywhere you want to go.

2012 2010 2008

A smaller home in a more urbanized area, within walking distance of shops and workplaces.

47%

51% 39%

58%

36%

59% Don’t know/Can’t say

19

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place

Neighborhood preferences (2007-2013) "If you could live anywhere in the Houston area, what sort of neighborhood would you prefer to live in?"

A single-family residential area. An area with a mix of developments, including homes, shops and restaurants.

2013 2011 2009 2007 20

48% 50% 52%

50% 50% 47%

49% Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

47% Quality of Place

1978

Š Alex MacLean Quality of Place

2011

Š Alex MacLean Quality of Place

The Demographic Revolution

The number of documented U.S. immigrants, by decade (1820-2010) 12

From 1492 to 1965, 82% of all immigrants coming to America came from Europe.

After reform in 1965, 88% of all the new immigrants were non-Europeans.

Millions of immigrants

10

1897

8.8

Recession

8

1930s Great Depression

1860s 6

4

10.5

1965

American Civil War

“Hart-Cellar Act”

1840s Irish Potato Famine

2

0.1

1924 “National Origins Quota Act”

0

0.5

1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

24

Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Office of Immigration Statistics. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Major U.S. immigrant cities

Boston San Francisco

Chicago

New York City Washington D.C.

Los Angeles

San Diego

Dallas Atlanta

Miami Houston

25

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

The demographic transformations of Harris County

Population in Millions

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 7.7% 6.7%

3

4.1% 15.5% 2.1% 15.5%

2

0.8% 9.9%

0.3% 1

6.0% Asians 20.1%

19.8%

Latinos Blacks

Asians 19.7% Latinos Blacks

Asians 22.7% Latinos Blacks 19.1%

Asians Latinos 32.9% Blacks

18.2%

Asians

Asians Latinos 40.8%

Latinos

Blacks 18.4%

Blacks

Anglos 0

73.9% 1,243,258

26

Anglos 69.2%

1,741,912

Anglos

62.7%

2,409,547

Anglos

54.0%

2,818,199

Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Anglos 42.1% 3,400,578

33.0%

Anglos

4,092,459

The Demographic Revolution

The demographic changes in Fort Bend County and Montgomery County Fort Bend County 600,000

Montgomery County

1990 2000 2010 1990 20002010 19.0%

Asians

4.0%

15.5

Latinos Asians Latinos 21.1% Blacks Blacks 23.7%

13.1%

300,000

6.5%

21.1%

19.5%

Asians 19.6% Latinos Blacks

20.3%

53.8% 0 225,421 27

Anglos

46.2% 354,452

4.1% 2.5% 12.6% 3.4% 7.3% 4.2%

Anglos 36.2% Anglos 585,375

Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

1.0%

87.5% 182,201

Asians Latinos Blacks Anglos

81.4% 293,768

20.8%

Asians Latinos Blacks

Anglos

71.2% 455,746

The Demographic Revolution

Harris County total population

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 28

1980

Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.

Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Harris County total population

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 29

1990

Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.

Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Harris County total population

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 30

2000

Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.

Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Harris County total population

Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 31

2010

Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.

Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in Harris County in 2010 All others 79%

Non-Hispanic Whites 57%

43%

21%

0-4

32

5-9

10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24

25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64

Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

65 +

The Demographic Revolution

Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the state of Texas in 2010 Non-Hispanic Whites 68%

All others 68%

32%

32%

0-4

33

5-9

10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24

25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64

Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

65 +

The Demographic Revolution

Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2010 Non-Hispanic Whites 80%

All Others 51% 49%

20%

0-4

34

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

The Demographic Revolution

Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2050

All Others

Non-Hispanic Whites

63%

59%

42% 37%

0-4

35

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

The Demographic Revolution

Educational attainment by ethnicity (2003-2013 combined) Percent of respondents

Less than H.S.

H.S. diploma

58%

Some college College degree Post-graduate 35%

32% 29%

24%

24%

22%

14%

24%

32%

31%

26%

28% 24%

22%

13%

13%

10%

9% 6%

3%

3%

12% 5% 2%

Asian Immigrants U.S.-born Anglos U.S.-born Blacks U.S.-born Latinos Latino Immigrants 36

Source: 2003-2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Socioeconomic status among Latinos by time in the U.S. and by generation (1994-2013 combined)

Percent of Latino respondents <9 years 16% 10-19 years 22%

Household income greater than $35,000.

40%

20+ years 2nd Generation

51%

3rd Generation

54%

39%

<9 years 10-19 years

Has health insurance for self and family.

48%

20+ years

63%

2nd Generation

67%

3rd Generation

<9 years

24%

10-19 years

Owns the place where lives.

68%

3rd Generation

Source: 1994-2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

49%

20+ years 2nd Generation

37

77%

65% 60%

The Demographic Revolution

Assimilation among Latinos by time in the U.S. and by generation (1994-2013 combined)

Percent of Latino respondents <9 …

The interview was conducted in English, rather than Spanish.

15%

10-19 …

22%

20+ years

39%

2nd Generation

84%

3rd Generation

90%

<9 years

Respondent thinks of self as primarily Hispanic.

85%

10-19 years

79%

20+ years

51%

2nd Gen…

28%

3rd G… 18%

Three closest friends in Houston are all Hispanics.

<9 years

90%

10-19 years

89%

20+ years

77%

2nd Generation 3rd Generation

38

Source: 1994-2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

57% 41%

The Demographic Revolution

Assessments of ethnic relations in the Houston area, by ethnicity (1992-2013) Percent rating ethnic relations as “excellent” or “good”

61% Anglos

60%

53% 48% 45% Blacks 42% Latinos

48%

39%

41%

38%

38%

33% 27%

27%

21%

14% 10% 92 39

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

The Demographic Revolution

The shift in attitudes toward immigrants during the past four years (2009-2013) Percent of respondents agreeing 90%

83% 68% 55%

64% 66%

71%

74% 61%

55%

51%

For: granting a path to legal citizenship.

Admit about same number or more legal immigrants.

47%

The new immigration mostly strengthens American culture.

0% 09 40

11

13 09

10

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

11

12

13 09

11

The Demographic Revolution

13

Interethnic romantic relationships by age (2007 and 2011 combined)

Anglo respondents who report having been in a romantic relationship with someone who was not Anglo.

41

57%

61%

49%

42%

25%

10%

18-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60-69

70+

Source: 2007 and 2011 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Percent of Anglo respondents agreeing, by age

Ethnic attitudes by age among Anglos (2007–2013 combined)

The increasing ethnic diversity brought about by immigration is a “good thing,” rather than a “bad thing.”

Grant illegal immigrants a path to legal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal record.

18-29

71%

30-44

61%

45-59

57%

60+

48%

18-29

74%

30-44

65%

45-59

60%

60+

55%

18-29 The increasing immigration into the U.S. today mostly “strengthens,” rather than “threatens,” American culture.

30-44

43%

45-59

42%

60+

42

Source: 2007-2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

68%

35%

The Demographic Revolution

Abortion attitudes: the “tolerant traditionalists” (1999-2013) 100%

Opposed to “a law that would make it more difficult for a woman to 60% obtain an abortion.”

61% 59%

59% Believe that “abortion is morally wrong.”

0% 99 43

01

03

05

07

09

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

11

13

The Demographic Revolution

The growing support for gay rights during the past four years (2009-2013) Percent of respondents agreeing 55%

52%

45%

46%

45%

44%

43%

46%

39%

35%

Homosexuality is “something people cannot change.”

Same-sex marriages should be given the “same legal status.”

Homosexuality is “morally acceptable.”

25% 09 44

11

13 09

11

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

13 09

11

13

The Demographic Revolution

Percent of Anglo respondents agreeing, by age

Support for gay rights by age among Anglos (2007-2013)

18-29 Favor allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military.

67% 74%

30-44 45-59 60+

70% 62%

18-29

Has a close personal friend who is gay or lesbian.

66%

30-44 45-59 60+

68% 63% 46%

18-29 Favor homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children.

Agree that homosexual marriages should have the same legal status as heterosexual marriages.

45

30-44 45-59 60+

18-29 30-44 45-59 60+

57% 46% 45% 33%

59% 46% 40% 25%

The Demographic Revolution

Support for gun control (2013) “What about a federal law banning assault weapons?”

Strongly favor

Strongly oppose

35%

36%

“What about requiring universal criminal background checks for all gun sales?”

Strongly favor

82%

8%

Strongly oppose 2% Slightly oppose 7% Slightly favor

10% Slightly favor

15% Slightly oppose

4% Don’t know/Can’t say

46

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

1% Don’t know/Can’t say

The Demographic Revolution

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