The 32nd Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations
Dr. Stephen Klineberg The Basic Presentation of the 2013 “Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey�
1900-1982
Houston was basically a “one-horse� industrial town focused
2
on refining hydrocarbons into gasoline and petrochemicals and servicing the oil and gas industry.
“The ideological thrust in Houston in the twentieth century has been
anti-government, anti-regulation, anti-planning, anti-taxes, anti-anything
that seemed to represent, in fact or fantasy, an expansion of the public sector or a limitation on the economic prerogatives and activities of the city’s business community.� (Robert Fisher 1990)
3
The Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2013) More than three decades of systematic interviews with
The New Economy
representative samples of Harris County residents,
Quality of Place
focused on three central issues:
The Demographic Revolution
4
Percent increase in before-tax income
Two contrasting economic eras
110%
116%
111%
114%
100%
99% 86%
63%
The 30 years after World War II were a period of broad-based prosperity.
50% 43%
The past 30 years have been marked by growing concentrations of wealth. -10%
-3%
2%
Bottom 20%
Second 20%
5%
15%
Middle 20%
Fourth 20%
Top 20%
Top 5%
The 30 years after World War II (1949-1979) The past 30 years (1980-2011)
5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social And Economic Supplements. Mean Household Income Received By Each Fifth And The Top 5 Percent, Inflation Adjusted. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
23.9% (1928) 23.5% (2007) Share of total before-tax income flowing to the top one percent (1913-2010)
25%
20%
15%
19.8% (2010) 10%
5%
0
1920 6
1930
1940
1950
1960
Source: Piketty and Saez, based on IRS data Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
The New Economy
The new economy (2013)
“For a person to be successful in today’s world, it is necessary to get an education beyond high school.”
73%
The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now largely disappeared.
25%
“There are many ways to succeed with no more than a high school diploma.” 2% Don’t know/Can’t say
7
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
Positive perceptions of job opportunities in the Houston area (1982-2013) 100%
Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good”
71% of Houstonians in 1982
gave positive ratings to job opportunities in Houston.
50%
43%
66% 68%
58%
58%
42%
48% 41%
36%
35% 25%
11% 0% 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 8
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
The official unemployment rates in Harris County (1982-2013) 11.0 10.0
9.8
10.1
8.6
9.0 8.0
8.4
7.8 7.3 6.8
7.0
6.6
6.8
6.0 5.0 4.0
4.0
4.3
3.0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 9
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
Assessments of personal financial situations (1982-2013) 70%
62% 56% 54%
59%
51%Will be “better off”
45%
financially three or four years down the road.
41% 28%
27%
26% Personal financial
23%
21%
10%
situation has been “getting better” in the last few years.
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
10
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
Two measures of belief in the “American work ethic” (1982-2013) Percent of respondents agreeing 100%
“If you work hard in this city, eventually you will succeed.”
88%
89%
81% 73%
71% “People who work hard
and live by the rules are not getting a fair break these days.”
46%
20% 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
11
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The New Economy
What is the biggest problem facing people in the Houston area today? 16% Crime
37% Economy
15% Traffic
26%
21% 32% Other
2012 12
23%
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
30% Other
2013 The New Economy
Growing support for government efforts to reduce the inequalities Percent of respondents agreeing 65%
58% 51%
52% 50%
45%
50%
41%
35%
24%
Welfare benefits generally give poor people a chance to get started again.
Government has a responsibility to help reduce the inequalities in America.
Government should do more to solve our country’s problems.
0% 94 13
09
13 09
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
11
13 96
11
The New Economy
13
Arts, culture, sports Air and water quality Green spaces, trees Bayous Transportation Urban centers
Quality of Place
Hiking, boating, birding
Concerns about crime, traffic and air pollution (2005-2013) “Very worried” that you or a member of your family will become the victim of a crime.
“Very concerned” about the effects of air pollution on your family’s health.
Traffic has generally “gotten worse” over the past three years.
Living conditions in the Houston area have “gotten better” or “stayed the same.” 79%
76% 66% 56% 50% 41% 33%
31%
05 15
07
09
11
13 05
07
09
11
13 05
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
07
09
11
13 05
07
9
11
Quality of Place
13
Life in the Houston area compared to other U.S. metro areas (2005-2013)
“Compared to most other metropolitan areas in the country, is Houston a better or worse place to live?” 100%
78%
85%
86%
89%
90%
“Much/slightly better” 50%
17% 8%
7%
6%
“Much/slightly worse”
0%
05
16
9%
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
07
09
11
Quality of Place
13
The City of Houston 2.1 million 600 sq. mi.
Baltimore 0.6 million 81 sq. mi.
Chicago 2.7 million 228 sq. mi.
Detroit 0.7 million 139 sq. mi.
Philadelphia 1.5 million 134 sq. mi. 17
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Quality of Place
The 10-county Houston metropolitan region 5.9 million 10,062 sq. mi.
New Jersey 8.8 million 8,729 sq. mi. 18
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Quality of Place
Housing preferences (2008-2012) "If you could choose where to live in the Houston area, which would you prefer?" A single-family home with a big yard, where you would need to drive almost everywhere you want to go.
2012 2010 2008
A smaller home in a more urbanized area, within walking distance of shops and workplaces.
47%
51% 39%
58%
36%
59% Don’t know/Can’t say
19
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Quality of Place
Neighborhood preferences (2007-2013) "If you could live anywhere in the Houston area, what sort of neighborhood would you prefer to live in?" A single-family residential area. An area with a mix of developments, including homes, shops and restaurants.
2013 2011 2009 2007 20
48% 50% 52%
50% 50% 47%
49% Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
47% Quality of Place
1978
Š Alex MacLean Quality of Place
2011
Š Alex MacLean Quality of Place
The Demographic Revolution
The number of documented U.S. immigrants, by decade (1820-2010) 12
From 1492 to 1965, 82% of all immigrants coming to America came from Europe.
After reform in 1965, 88% of all the new immigrants were non-Europeans.
Millions of immigrants
10
1897
8.8
Recession
8
1930s Great Depression
1860s 6
4
10.5
1965
American Civil War
“Hart-Cellar Act”
1840s Irish Potato Famine
2
0.1
1924 “National Origins Quota Act”
0
0.5
1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
24
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Office of Immigration Statistics. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Major U.S. immigrant cities
Boston San Francisco
Chicago
New York City Washington D.C.
Los Angeles
San Diego
Dallas Atlanta
Miami Houston
25
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
The demographic transformations of Harris County
Population in Millions
4
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 7.7% 6.7%
3
4.1% 15.5% 2.1% 15.5%
2
0.8% 9.9%
0.3% 1
6.0% Asians 20.1%
19.8%
Latinos Blacks
Asians 19.7% Latinos Blacks
Asians 22.7% Latinos Blacks 19.1%
Asians Latinos 32.9% Blacks
18.2%
Asians
Asians Latinos 40.8%
Latinos
Blacks 18.4%
Blacks
Anglos 0
73.9% 1,243,258
26
Anglos 69.2%
1,741,912
Anglos
62.7%
2,409,547
Anglos
54.0%
2,818,199
Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Anglos 42.1% 3,400,578
33.0%
Anglos
4,092,459
The Demographic Revolution
The demographic changes in Fort Bend County and Montgomery County Fort Bend County 600,000
Montgomery County
1990 2000 2010 1990 20002010 19.0%
Asians
4.0%
15.5
Latinos Asians Latinos 21.1% Blacks Blacks 23.7%
13.1%
300,000
6.5%
21.1%
19.5%
Asians 19.6% Latinos Blacks
20.3%
53.8% 0 225,421 27
Anglos
46.2% 354,452
4.1% 2.5% 12.6% 3.4% 7.3% 4.2%
Anglos 36.2% Anglos 585,375
Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
1.0%
87.5% 182,201
Asians Latinos Blacks Anglos
81.4% 293,768
20.8%
Asians Latinos Blacks
Anglos
71.2% 455,746
The Demographic Revolution
Harris County total population
Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 28
1980
Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Harris County total population
Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 29
1990
Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Harris County total population
Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 30
2000
Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Harris County total population
Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 31
2010
Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in Harris County in 2010 All others 79%
Non-Hispanic Whites 57%
43%
21%
0-4
32
5-9
10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24
25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64
Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
65 +
The Demographic Revolution
Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the state of Texas in 2010 Non-Hispanic Whites 68%
All others 68%
32%
32%
0-4
33
5-9
10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24
25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64
Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
65 +
The Demographic Revolution
Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2010 Non-Hispanic Whites 80%
All Others 51% 49%
20%
0-4
34
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
The Demographic Revolution
Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2050
All Others
Non-Hispanic Whites
63%
59%
42% 37%
0-4
35
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
The Demographic Revolution
Educational attainment by ethnicity (2003-2013 combined) Percent of respondents
Less than H.S.
H.S. diploma
58%
Some college College degree Post-graduate 35%
32% 29%
24%
24%
22%
14%
24%
32%
31%
26%
28% 24%
22%
13%
13%
10%
9% 6%
3%
3%
12% 5% 2%
Asian Immigrants U.S.-born Anglos U.S.-born Blacks U.S.-born Latinos Latino Immigrants 36
Source: 2003-2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Socioeconomic status among Latinos by time in the U.S. and by generation (1994-2013 combined)
Percent of Latino respondents <9 years 16% 10-19 years 22%
Household income greater than $35,000.
40%
20+ years 2nd Generation
51%
3rd Generation
54%
39%
<9 years 10-19 years
Has health insurance for self and family.
48%
20+ years
63%
2nd Generation
67%
3rd Generation
<9 years
24%
10-19 years
Owns the place where lives.
68%
3rd Generation
Source: 1994-2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
49%
20+ years 2nd Generation
37
77%
65% 60%
The Demographic Revolution
Assimilation among Latinos by time in the U.S. and by generation (1994-2013 combined)
Percent of Latino respondents <9 …
The interview was conducted in English, rather than Spanish.
15%
10-19 …
22%
20+ years
39%
2nd Generation
84%
3rd Generation
90%
<9 years
Respondent thinks of self as primarily Hispanic.
85%
10-19 years
79%
20+ years
51%
2nd Gen…
28%
3rd G… 18%
Three closest friends in Houston are all Hispanics.
<9 years
90%
10-19 years
89%
20+ years
77%
2nd Generation 3rd Generation
38
Source: 1994-2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
57% 41%
The Demographic Revolution
Assessments of ethnic relations in the Houston area, by ethnicity (1992-2013) Percent rating ethnic relations as “excellent” or “good”
61% Anglos
60%
53% 48% 45% Blacks 42% Latinos
48%
39%
41%
38%
38%
33% 27%
27%
21%
14% 10% 92 39
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
The Demographic Revolution
The shift in attitudes toward immigrants during the past four years (2009-2013) Percent of respondents agreeing 90%
83% 68% 55%
64% 66%
71%
74% 61%
55%
51%
For: granting a path to legal citizenship.
Admit about same number or more legal immigrants.
47%
The new immigration mostly strengthens American culture.
0% 09 40
11
13 09
10
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
11
12
13 09
11
The Demographic Revolution
13
Interethnic romantic relationships by age (2007 and 2011 combined)
Anglo respondents who report having been in a romantic relationship with someone who was not Anglo.
41
57%
61%
49%
42%
25%
10%
18-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70+
Source: 2007 and 2011 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey Š Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The Demographic Revolution
Percent of Anglo respondents agreeing, by age
Ethnic attitudes by age among Anglos (2007–2013 combined)
The increasing ethnic diversity brought about by immigration is a “good thing,” rather than a “bad thing.”
Grant illegal immigrants a path to legal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal record.
18-29
71%
30-44
61%
45-59
57%
60+
48%
18-29
74%
30-44
65%
45-59
60%
60+
55%
18-29 The increasing immigration into the U.S. today mostly “strengthens,” rather than “threatens,” American culture.
30-44
43%
45-59
42%
60+
42
Source: 2007-2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
68%
35%
The Demographic Revolution
Abortion attitudes: the “tolerant traditionalists” (1999-2013) 100%
Opposed to “a law that would make it more difficult for a woman to 60% obtain an abortion.”
61% 59%
59% Believe that “abortion is morally wrong.”
0% 99 43
01
03
05
07
09
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
11
13
The Demographic Revolution
The growing support for gay rights during the past four years (2009-2013) Percent of respondents agreeing 55%
52%
45%
46%
45%
44%
43%
46%
39%
35%
Homosexuality is “something people cannot change.”
Same-sex marriages should be given the “same legal status.”
Homosexuality is “morally acceptable.”
25% 09 44
11
13 09
11
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
13 09
11
13
The Demographic Revolution
Percent of Anglo respondents agreeing, by age
Support for gay rights by age among Anglos (2007-2013)
18-29 Favor allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military.
67% 74%
30-44 45-59 60+
70% 62%
18-29
Has a close personal friend who is gay or lesbian.
66%
30-44 45-59 60+
68% 63% 46%
18-29 Favor homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children.
Agree that homosexual marriages should have the same legal status as heterosexual marriages.
45
30-44 45-59 60+
18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
57% 46% 45% 33%
59% 46% 40% 25%
The Demographic Revolution
Support for gun control (2013) “What about a federal law banning assault weapons?”
Strongly favor
Strongly oppose
35%
36%
“What about requiring universal criminal background checks for all gun sales?”
Strongly favor
82%
8%
Strongly oppose 2% Slightly oppose 7% Slightly favor
10% Slightly favor
15% Slightly oppose
4% Don’t know/Can’t say
46
Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
1% Don’t know/Can’t say
The Demographic Revolution
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