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Contingency events & business continuity disruption
robust signals are available to trigger investments in the market to close any potential adequacy gap as defined by the legal security of supply criteria
ELIA TRANSMISSION BELGIUM’s latest study in this respect “Adequacy & Flexibility Study 2020-2030”, dates from June 28, 2019. It is available here: https://www.elia.be/en/publications/studies-and-reports
This study concluded that as a result of the nuclear phase-out, Belgium would face an adequacy gap by 2025 and that there are insufficient robust investment signals to expect this gap to be filled up by the market without additional intervention. In 2020, ELIA TRANSMISSION BELGIUM has launched together with the relevant authorities and CREG and involving market parties the process for the next study (i.e. covering the period 2022-2032) that should become available no later than June 30, 2021.
Following the aforementioned 2019 study, in order to guarantee Belgium’s security of supply in the longer term, the Belgian Parliament adopted in April 2019 a modification of the Electricity Law in order to introduce a capacity remuneration mechanism (CRM). ELIA TRANSMISSION BELGIUM is assisting the government in designing and implementing this CRM mechanism. In 2020 ELIA TRANSMISSION BELGIUM has delivered on all of its legal requirements for the rollout of this new mechanism, including formal proposals for several methodological aspects, for calibration of several parameter and for detailed functioning rules. ELIA TRANSMISSION BELGIUM has also started the necessary implementation actions (e.g. IT developments). The aforementioned study also indicated that Belgium might already face an adequacy issue between 2022 and 2025 (period during which some nuclear units will leave the market). While the study of November 30, 2020 on the perspectives for next winter provides indications confirming the trend, particularly the study to be delivered by June 30, 2021 will provide further insights in this matter. Also on this aspect, ELIA TRANSMISSION BELGIUM continues to inform the relevant authorities and assists them in their works when called upon.
The transmission systems operated by ELIA TRANSMISSION BELGIUM is very reliable. Nonetheless, unforeseen events, such as unfavorable weather conditions, may occur and alter the smooth operation of one or more infrastructure components. In most cases, these will lead to a so-called single contingency event, and have no impact on the end customers’ power supply because of the meshed structure of the grid operated by the ELIA TRANSMISSION BELGIUM. Indeed, electricity can often reach end customers via a number of different connections in the system. However, in other cases, an incident in the electricity system may lead to a multiple contingencies event that could result in a local or widespread electricity outage provoking liability claims and litigation which could negatively impact the financial position of ELIA TRANSMISSION BELGIUM.
There are causes other than unfavorable weather conditions for contingency events & business continuity disruption. Examples include human errors, malicious attacks, terrorism, equipment failures, etc. Offshore equipment
particularly has our full attention, in a context where there is less of a track record with these technologies and a higher complexity for curative actions. The probability of the occurrence of one or more of the above-mentioned events may increase if the competent authorities do not approve the necessary operational procedures, investments or full time equivalent (FTE) resources proposed by ELIA TRANSMISSION BELGIUM.
Responses
There are several procedures in place to manage these risks, going from crisis management plans to operational procedures such as defense plans and restoration plans. All of them are regularly trained for and tested with
