THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION
In the Spotlight
+++ EU-Russia +++
The US and the EU together must negotiate European security with Russia
Putin needs to receive a convincing answer!
by Jacques Favin Lévêque, Général (ret), Versailles, and Claude Roche, Vice-President of the Académie de l’Air et de l’Espace, Paris
T
he recent draft security treaty presented by Russia proposes bilateral guarantees between Russia and the United States (US), with the aim of severely restricting NATO’s reach and any attempt to extend it closer to Russia. This applies to the territories of the former Soviet Union, countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic states or other countries bordering on Russia. Many of them have already joined NATO, while others are seeking NATO membership.
President Putin’s provocative stance It is not entirely clear if President Putin’s goal is to restore the geopolitical situation that prevailed before the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, but in any case, the President is clearly affirming Russia’s status as a geostrategic power on a par with the US since the text does not even mention the European Union (EU). It is often said that defence policy is a tool of foreign policy, and it is quite usual for a state to use it to support its negotiations with an interlocutor, which it thus puts in a position of inferiority. For its part, the EU is loath to use the threat of force to achieve its political objectives. This is due to the peaceful intentions on which it was founded after the second world war
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and to an ethic linked to the very nature of democracy. But even if it wanted to, it would be incapable of doing so, because its means are limited, and it is deeply divided on the use of force. In this regard, the EU does not scare anyone... Europe is therefore taken aback that Russia has resorted to a kind of 21st century “gunboat diplomacy”. We cannot fail to see the link between the spectacular deployment of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border and the draft security treaty presented by President Putin. Of course, in the days of the USSR, the Donbas was at the heart of its defence industry and an important economic hub with a Russian-speaking population. But is this the real reason for the crisis? On the part of a Russia, which does not hesitate to show its strength to get what it wants, this draft treaty reveals a desire for geopolitical negotiation more than a desire for territorial reconquest.
What Russia really wants If this interpretation is accepted, the Russian military is simply engaged in a game of politico-strategic posturing and the invasion so dreaded by NATO headquarters will not happen! Let us therefore be bold enough to adopt this hypothesis, even if it is not shared by the operational planners of the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) and the officials of the European External Action Service (EEAS). They are simply doing their duty by considering possible reactions to a possible Russian offensive.
