THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION
Maintaining the rules-based international order
photo: © 2017 f11photo/Shutterstock.
Preparing for Taiwan contingencies
by Hideshi Tokuchi, Professor, President of the Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS), Tokyo
T
oday, the Taiwan Strait is a frontline of the systemic rivalry between the US and China. Taiwan is not only a vibrant democracy but also a success story of democratic governance to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic. Taiwan is also important from the economic security perspective as a centre of the semiconductor industry. It is indispensable in this digital age.
Security implication of Taiwan Reportedly, Paul Wolfowitz once said, “Taiwan is Asia’s Berlin,” but today’s Taiwan is in a much more difficult situation than West Berlin in the Cold War days. Firstly, the US security commitment to Taiwan remains ambiguous. It seems clearer than before, but President Biden has not said, “Ich bin ein Taiwaner” compared to President Kennedy’s strong call to Berlin’s population in 1962: “Ich bin ein Berliner”. Secondly, the former Soviet Union did not claim West Berlin, but China never abandons its determination to take Taiwan as its own territory. Taiwan’s geography between the important sea routes, ie the South and East China Seas, could not be overstated for Japan’s national security. As Japan is a maritime country scarce in natural resources and much dependent on foreign trade, freedom of the sea is critical for the survival and prosperity of Japan faced with China’s maritime expansion.
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Thirdly, Taiwan is a touchstone for security. Taiwan is part of the first island chain to check China’s expansion to the Pacific. If Taiwan falls under China’s rule, the Chinese military will easily enhance its presence in the Pacific and operate more actively over there. Taiwan is so close to the Japanese territories such as the Senkaku Islands that Japan would be inevitably affected by military contingencies involving Taiwan. Taiwan and the southwestern island region of Japan should be regarded as one single theatre. Australia’s defence minister is more candid on this point than the Japanese. He said, “If Taiwan is taken, surely the Senkakus are next.” As the US military would have to operate from Japan in Taiwan contingencies, Japan’s wartime host
tension between China “AsandtheTaiwan is rising, Japan will
have to squarely face the issue of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as a matter of Japan’s own security.”
