THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION
A credible response to China’s menaces
photo: © 2020 Tomasz Makowski/Shutterstock
India’s sea-based nuclear second-strike options
by Debalina Ghoshal, non-resident fellow at the Council on International Policy and Indian correspondent to this magazine, Kolkata
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uclear Weapon States (NWSs) – China, France, the United Kingdom, Russia and the United States – and other so called nuclear powers strive to develop technologies and systems that allow them to survive enemy nuclear or conventional attacks on their nuclear forces, and then strike against the enemy capabilities. For the survivability of nuclear weapons and nuclear forces, sea-based nuclear deterrence is one of the best forms that ensures survivability of own weapons on submersible ballistic nuclear ships (SSBN). When they enable states, after an attack, to inflict the assured destruction of an adversary, then the concept of mutual assured destruction is credible. Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) fired from SSBNs provide the best form of sea-based nuclear deterrence owing to the fact that SSBNs can be submerged in water for months and hence the scope of being detected remains low. This provides states with an assured second counter-strike capability. That is what India is striving for.
The Indo-China standoff In the recent past, given the Indo-China standoff, India has focused largely on exerting greater influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This region is also a hotbed for nuclear escalation especially as both China and India work towards strengthening their counter-strike and second strike capabilities, focusing on sea-based nuclear deterrence. Consequently, maritime prowess in the IOR would strengthen India’s naval deterrence against China. Several of
India’s warships were deployed in 2020 in the region to deter China. For the moment, India’s dissuasion relies and will continue to rely on India’s “no first use” doctrine, which means for the moment, that platforms and weapons are separated in peace time.
How to keep a balance China has already developed SSBNs like the Jin and Xia class and SSNs. China’s naval presence is not just restricted to the IOR. The People’s Liberation Army/Navy (PLAN) has exerted its influence in the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS) regions and also in the Arctic. Slowly, China could deploy its SSBNs in the Arctic region too. Hence, India would need to keep up the pace with this growth and global presence of Chinese naval power. In November 2018, India’s first SSBN, “INS Arihant”, commissioned into the Indian Navy in 2016 as its first deterrence patrol, is now ready to perform a deterrence role. As stated in the Indian Navy doctrine, “SSBN due to stealth characteristics enabling discrete and prolonged deployment, and combat capabilities including weapon outfit, provides a credible, effec-
prowess in the Indian Ocean Region “Maritime would strengthen India’s naval deterrence against China.”
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