THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION
Russia and Europe are gambling their future
photo: ©2022 Ruslan Lytvyn/Shutterstock
Ukraine between the Atlantic and the Urals
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by Jean Dufourcq, Counter Admiral (ret), co-founder of Vigie, synthèse stratégique, Paris
T
he Russian aggression in Ukraine, a human tragedy of a bygone era, harks back to the European wars of the 20th century. It bears all the marks of Russian brutality, strategic frustration and a radical political project that has ended badly. Russia is gambling its respectability and its future and Europe its reunification for the next decades. The dialogue of the deaf between Washington and Moscow since the summer of 2021 under the Biden presidency ended up triggering a strategic vicious circle that culminated in the Russian invasion of 24th February. The 27 Member States of the European Union (EU), amazed and anxious, have hastened to try and unblock a European defence project that lacks strategic coherence. France, as president of the Council of the EU, has desperately attempted to maintain contact with the Kremlin and initiate a de-escalation. But once again in Europe, weapons have spoken louder than words and civilian populations are the victims. A new era begins with this disturbing flashback.
it with diplomatic pressure. The full-scale invasion that started on 24th February was therefore a surprise and caused hesitation among traditional allies, initially anxious to avoid any appearance of belligerence in support of the attacked Ukraine. The radical firmness of the former members of the Warsaw Pact and collective fear at the Kremlin’s nuclear posturing also came into play. Many were quick to conclude that it was a war against the West or even the premise of a third world war. And the idea of the NATO defence alliance, that had lost its raison d’être, was quickly reactivated. Some strategists have argued that Russia’s war against Ukraine was perhaps not so much intended as a military challenge to the West than the consequence of a refusal to provide formal security guarantees to Russia as it continued to denounce the continuous progression of NATO towards
Jean Dufourcq is a French Admiral (ret.) and cofounder, with Olivier Kempf, of “Vigie, synthèse stratégique” in 2014. He holds a doctorate in political science and is
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The West was alarmed…
a former commander a.o. of the attack subma-
This brutal assault has taken experts and diplomats by surprise, except in Washington, which hastily moved its embassy from Kyiv to Lviv on 13th February as a Russian invasion became imminent. However, the Russians had already attempted to gain some degree of political legitimacy by invoking the need for action to protect the Russian-speaking populations of the Donbass, who had been exposed since 2014 to the non-application, assumed by Kyiv, of the Minsk agreements of 2015. This enabled Russia to justify its actions and underpin
rine Ouessant. Admiral Dufourcq also served at the photo: private
Centre for Analysis and Forecasting of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Paris, at the Perma-
nent Representation of France to the EU in Brussels and at the NATO Defense College in Rome. From 2007-2012, he was director of studies at the École Militaire in Paris (Irsem) and from 2009-2014 he served as editor-in-chief of Revue Défense Nationale. Since 2010, he has been an associate member of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences.
