MAIN TOPIC: War in Europe
Hybrid warfare is a serious threat to European prosperity and security
by Ralph Thiele, President of EuroDefense Germany and Chairman of the Political-Military Society, Berlin
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he world is in the midst of a tectonic shift. Global competition for security architectures, trade and investment regimes and leadership in new technologies is gathering pace. Strategic goals are also being pursued through the threat and use of open military force. The Russian incursions into Ukraine and the Chinese threats against Taiwan speak a clear language. This is alarming. The European Union must ask itself how well it is positioned to deal with this aggressive dynamic and develop a sense of urgency for innovation and change.
Hybrid warfare – what is it about? Hybrid warfare is an age-old phenomenon. Yet, new technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, cyber, quantum and space technologies and many other more have a catalytic effect on hybrid warfare. They improve the initial conditions for hybrid actions, expand the arsenal of hybrid actors and thus contribute to increasing the scope of their activities as well as their chances of success. Hybrid aggressors, for example, combine industrial age techniques with cyber operations. They use a system of selected visible and clandestine actions, including social engineering, where the attackers are almost invisible and the target is precisely defined. The particularly vulnerable networks and servers of manufacturers, professional and private users are only the tip of the iceberg. Spyware in national parliaments and security agencies, in critical infrastructures and weapons systems offer attackers enormous opportunities in economic and political disputes. Moreover, not only do state and state-sponsored actors cavort in the networks, but also businessmen, criminal offenders and
photo: © 2018 PabloLagarto/Shutterstock
Countermeasures are to be driven by an agile, flexible and comprehensive approach
terrorists. Any of them might explore, steal, forge, coerce and blackmail to gain access to research, trade and state secrets, databases and private accounts.
China and Russia strive for technological leadership China and Russia have narrowed their technological gap over the past two decades, in some cases by turning to commercially available technologies more quickly and effectively than their Western competitors and by accelerating their own innovation in the armed forces. In particular, China has undertaken impressive steps towards technological leadership. It already has a head start on artificial intelligence and 5G and is well under way to dominating other technologies such as microelectronics and quantum computing. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military interventions in Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and Syria since 2015 prove how military force can be used to achieve political goals. No other head of state in the world has such an impressive track record of using military power. Russia is reloaded. Its rearmament over the last decade and a half has been widely ignored by the West. Now Russia finds itself encouraged to use its armed forces as an instrument of power. As a result of its security policy negligence, the West has to stand idly by. It has become vulnerable to coercion and blackmailing. Russia’s particular strength lies in hybrid aggression – including cyber warfare, information warfare, covert and intelligence operations, influencing the domestic politics of other countries, etc – in combination with military power. This very approach has provided Putin with a wide bouquet of options to push through his political goals. What we have seen in → Continued on page 32
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