EU-US Relations
The US treats “shared values” no longer as an axiom for cooperative solutions
Trump and Europe: times of new uncertainty by Prof Bohdan Szklarski, American Studies Center, University of Warsaw, Warsaw
Security, trade, climate regime – the European Union (EU) and the United States of America (USA) used to be on the same side. Disagreements, even serious ones, were quietly resolved. Since 20 January, the predictability has gone. We are reading between the lines for the “real” meaning of American words. What does the president say? Uncertainty, unpredictability, lack of strategic dimension, Americans have started sending signals that “shared values” are no longer to be treated as an axiom that implies cooperative solutions in even most crucial issue areas such as security and trade. Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement or reluctance to confirm the article 5 of the NATO treaty even when speaking in the Alliance headquarters speak volumes. Omissions may be just slips in communication or they may be signals. Signals that European-American relations are no longer automatic, no longer axiological, no longer predictable, and no longer pleasant.
Trump’s visit to Warsaw On his way to the G20 meeting in Hamburg, Donald Trump stopped for a brief one-day visit in Poland. He was invited to attend a summit of the so called Three-Seas Initiative (3SI), a gathering of leaders from 11 states representing the so called “New Europe”, an initiative of a joint Polish-Croatian project, launched in 2015. Trump came ready to provide both in a symbolic and material way. The first came in the form of much awaited endorsement of Article 5 of the NATO treaty. The second in an offer to sell Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) gas in the
future. The third was praising Poland’s wartime heroes. As the South and Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline projects are for Poland like betrayal and makes Warsaw determined to seek special relations with the USA, Trump seemed to understand all these intricacies and promoted the USA as a security and energy guarantor of the region.
Controversial issues of major concern Trump’s Warsaw speech indeed identifies major controversial issues in the EU-US relations which raise the potential for redefinition of what used to be known as the transatlantic partnership. The “America First” philosophy is potentially a source of huge conflict with EU leaders: The President might be at some point inclined to push towards a split of the EU in order to weaken its own allies. In the past, based on value and commitment sharing, the US was seen as a potential mediator and compromise facilitator and strongly advocated European integration. Trump’s bilateralism stands in the way of strong allied ties as they tend to downgrade the potential for transactional deal-making.
Conflictual issues between the US and EU Refugees: Trump’s anti-refugee and anti-immigration statements make him an unlikely constructive actor in that policy area. The seeming stability in the refugee and migrant situation in Europe is fragile. The future of the EU and Turkey agreement is not assured and the continued refusal to extradite Fethullah Gullen and continued support for the Kurds, does not bring the US in the role of a mediator.
Prof Bohdan Szklarski is an associate professor of political science at the American Studies Center and chair at the Center for the Study of Leadership at Warsaw University. A graduate from the Northeastern University, Boston, he has taught at numerous American and Polish Universities within the last 30 years. Currently, Prof Szklarski also lectures at Photo: private
Trade: Trade policy especially has emerged as a possible new crisis area for the EU in the years ahead. The European Court of Justice makes Trump happy, because it has ruled that any new trade agreement that goes beyond external tariff cuts, must be ratified not only by the European Parliament, but also by all national – and some sub-national – parliaments across the EU (39 in total).
the Collegium Civitas, a college of social sciences, where he chairs the American Business and Entertainment In-
dustry program. Between 2012 and 2016, he served as a director of the American Studies Center, Warsaw University. Prof Szklarski frequently appears as a commentator on American and Polish political events in the media.
Digital data sharing: Trump’s security primacy makes the US more likely to delay implementation of security sensitive data sharing arrangements which European allies consider crucial for their security. The adoption of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which will come into force in May 2018, as well as in the eventual
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