Estonian foreign intelligence’s current assessments

LAAS LEIVAT

Amongst the multi-varied analysis of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Services Annual Report is the observation that Russian society is undergoing increased militarization.

The Report suggests that a military conflict with the West is inevitable. It’s just a matter of time before this occurs, in any case not now.

According to the Report, the initial phases of it are already apparent, at first within cyberspace that also reaches foreign consumers. For instance, the cyberwar narrative explains that Russian military operations in Syria are meant to strengthen local forces who are in conflict with the US. Also, the war in Ukraine is just one episode in its opposition to the US in general.

The Foreign Intelligence Service sees the ongoing militarization of Russia’s population as boosting the Kremlin’s resistance to coups and revolutions. In addition, to divert Russians’ attention from the country’s economic failures, the lack of rule of law, political opposition and social problems, it’s necessary for the Russian government to mobilize opinion focussed against foreign enemies.

The Kremlin’s cyber warfare operations remain unpunished and this emboldens Russia to continue its interference in the USA’s 2020 elections, which Western analysts say has been underway for some time. If in the 1990’s the cyber-ops were aimed at Western military, now the choice of targets has widened considerably. For instance, when Russian athletes were suspended from international competitions, Moscow focused its misinformation campaign against anti-doping agencies abroad.

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