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EESTI ELU reedel, 28. veebruaril 2020 — Friday, February 28, 2020
English-language supplement to the Estonian weekly “EESTI ELU” Tartu College Publications Founding Chairman: Elmar Tampõld Editor: Laas Leivat 3 Madison Avenue, Toronto, ON M5R 2S2 T: 416-733-4550 • F: 416-733-0944 • E-mail: editor@eestielu.ca Digital: www.eestielu.ca
Estonian foreign intelligence’s current assessments Amongst the multi-varied analysis of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Services Annual Report is the observa tion that Russian society is undergoing increased mili tarization. The Report suggests that a military conflict with the West is inevitable. It’s just a matter of time before this occurs, in any case not now. According to the Report, the initial phases of it are already apparent, at first within cyber space that also reaches foreign consumers. For instance, the cyberwar narrative explains that Russian military operations in Syria are meant to strengthen local forces who are in conflict with the US. Also, the war in Ukraine is just one episode in its opposition to the US in general. The Foreign Intelligence Service sees the ongoing mili tarization of Russia’s population as boosting the Kremlin’s resis tance to coups and revolutions. In addition, to divert Russians’ attention from the country’s economic failures, the lack of rule of law, political opposition and social problems, it’s neces sary for the Russian govern ment to mobilize opinion fo cussed against foreign enemies. The Kremlin’s cyber warfare operations remain unpunished and this emboldens Russia to continue its interference in the USA’s 2020 elections, which Western analysts say has been underway for some time. If in the 1990’s the cyber-ops were aimed at Western military, now the choice of targets has widened considerably. For in stance, when Russian athletes were suspended from inter national competitions, Moscow focused its misinformation campaign against anti-doping agencies abroad. The West’s failure to make Russia accountable for its cyber attacks has aided their success. The punishment Moscow has endured – mainly sanctions – has been weak. Thus the Kremlin perceives the effort it expends in this activity as justi fied and this is a continuing danger for Estonia. In 2019, the Russian govern ment concentrated on political repression and increasing re
strictions on freedom of speech. The latter concentrates mainly within cyber space which has been until been the only media independent from government control and thus a serious irritant for the Kremlin. Therefore the government continued its change of existing legislation enabling authorities to monitor all content on the internet. Accordingly in 2019 the Duma passed legislation that hands total control over Russia’s own part of the inter net (Runet) to the government, “when the network’s stability is threatened or attacked by a foreign aggressor”. The Report states that the Russian president’s adminis tration is exploiting pseudoNGO’s to reinforce its foreign and domestic policy objectives. It sees the advantage of seem ingly independent grass roots citizens’ groups advancing Russia’s official talking points. These groups, camouflaged as genuine NGO’s (non-govern mental organizations), are de ployed annually at the OSCE’s human rights assessments in Warsaw. (This is a straight take-off on the Soviet era World Youth Peace Festivals, which were financed by and manipulated by the KGB.) Taking all this under con sideration, the Foreign Intel ligence Service concludes there is no discernible possibility of a military threat to Estonia in 2020. For Russian military and foreign policy planners, Estonia is not a primary concern be cause Moscow wants to avoid any conflict with NATO. But a misguided Kremlin or a faulty interpretation of confrontational situations cannot be dismissed. “However it must be noted that Russian military power in the last few years has substan tially increased by gearing up its pre-emptive capability. With improving the rapid deployment of its forces, Russia expects to compensate for its relative weakness in conventional mili tary strength.” The Foreign Intelligence Service reports that Moscow’s relations with the Baltic change as the relationship with wash ington evolves. Russia is intent to reduce the clout the USA
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No speeches or other formalities. Just natural enthusiasm and flags. This is how the tots of the Estonian Kindergarten celebrate the anniversary of Estonia’s Declaration of Independence 102 years ago. Photo: Peeter Põldre
MP asks minister about plans to end funding of Russian propaganda channels BNS, February 2020 Reform Party parliamentary group deputy chairwoman Keit Pentus-Rosimannus has asked Minister of the Interior Mart Helme (EKRE) regard ing the kinds of legislative amendments the Ministry of the Interior plans to submit to end the channeling of Esto nian taxpayers’ money to channels linked to Russian influencing activity and par ticipation in the financing of hostile channels this way. “An absurd situation current ly exists in Estonia in which security authorities are fighting channels that are part of hostile influencing activity while tax payers’ money is being chan neled through a large munici pality to finance these same channels,” Pentus-Rosimannus said. “It was only a week ago that the security authorities of Estonia and Latvia searched the main headquarters of the parent company of PBK. Estonia’s expertise in recognizing and combating hostile influencing activity has been appreciated. All of this is directly counter balanced by the financing of Kremlin propaganda channels with Estonia’s own public sec tor money.” Noted in the inquiry submit ted to the minister is the fact that a report was compiled by the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Riigikogu a year ago that, among other things, drew attention to the use of hostile television channels in influenc ing activity against Estonia and Western countries more broadly, and that Estonia’s Internal Security Service and several experts have likewise referred
internationally and increase its own. “Therefore the Baltic states are just a battlefront in any USA-Russia military confronta tion. It’s therefore necessary for the Baltic states to consider the possibility of a Russian preven tative attack on the Baltics’ ter ritory, to prevent the escalation of warfare with the USA some where else. This could be the result of the Kremlin’s miscal culations and a warped sense of danger.” LAAS LEIVAT
Ambassador Toomas Lukk and President of the Estonian Central Council, Kairi Taul-Hemingway, at the recent flag raising on Toronto’s City Hall Square. Photo: Estonian Life
At the recent celebration of the 102nd anniversary of Estonia’s independence, the Estonian Central Council bestowed its Canadian-Estonian Medal of Merit to recipients who have been outstanding in contributing in many different sectors to the well-being of the Estonian community abroad, as well as in Estonia. Presenting the medals and diplomas are the President of the Council, Kairi Taul-Hemingway and Honorary Vice Consul Thomas Heinsoo. Photo: Maimu Mölder
to the same problem for years. “These are TV channels that are an important part of the Kremlin’s information and in fluencing campaigns and which serve the broader purpose of generating and spreading narra tives that are useful to the Kremlin as well as creating tensions in the West by spread ing lies and arranging conscious information attacks,” the inquiry reads. The Reform MPs who signed the inquiry requested that the interior minister, who is respon sible for Estonia’s internal security, provide an assessment of the situation in which Esto nia’s public sector money is directed to channels hostile toward Estonia and Western countries more broadly. The MPs also want to know
whether the Ministry of the Interior and its area of govern ment have stopped buying air time from PBK and what the Ministry of the Interior has done to stop the financing of hostile TV channels by Tallinn, Estonia’s largest municipality. Helme must also answer whether and what legislative changes he deems necessary to stop the channeling of Estonian taxpayers’ money into the Kremlin’s propaganda channels and whether the interior minis ter, contrary to the general prac tices of the Estonian govern ment, intends to continue giving interviews to the news agency Sputnik after Estonian law en forcement authorities identified violations of Europea Union sanction law in connection with Sputnik’s Estonian arm.
