Market Report 2017-18 Commercial ¡ Spain and Andorra
Index
1. Editorial review .................................................................................................................................3 2. International juncture.......................................................................................................................5 Global growth........................................................................................................................6 Property market......................................................................................................................7
3. Spain‘s economy.................................................................................................................................8
4. Tertiary sector in Spain...................................................................................................................10
5. Madrid .............................................................................................................................................10
6. Barcelona .........................................................................................................................................12
7. Valencia ............................................................................................................................................13
8. Pontevedra .......................................................................................................................................14
9. Andorra.............................................................................................................................................15
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Editorial review
International juncture Global growth demand for new build properties accumulating in Spain. This increase wasn‘t experienced during the crisis. The only segment that has not grown is the offices, with 2,200 million reduced by 20 per cent due to the lower investment activity of the socimis.
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productivity and wage increases as well as unstable property prices. The economic growth for Japan will not reach 1% due to the moderation of private consumption and the fact that the momentum for the organisation of the Olympic Games in 2020 is neutralised by the increase in imports and the lower projected growth of foreign demand. Emerging markets will benefit from a favourable global financial environment and the good performance of the developed economies, with growth close to 5%. In the case of Brazil, although it also shows improvement, it has not yet applied structural changes so the recovery can be weak and vulnerable. China‘s growth remains robust, mainly due to investment, although this will moderate in response to the adjustments necessary to reduce overcapacity in certain sectors. On the other hand, the excessive indebtedness of this Asian country still persists. GDP Growth - Annual variation Developing economies
4%
8% 7%
3%
6% 2% 5% 1%
4%
Source: FMI
1 8 0 2
1 7 0 2
1 6 0 2
1 5 0 2
1 4 0 2
1 3 0 2
1 2 0 2
1 1 0 2
1 8 0 2
1 7 0 2
1 6 0 2
1 5 0 2
0 2
0 2
1 4
3% 1 3
0% 1 2
For its part, the residential segment grew by more than 150 per cent to 2,080 million, due to sellers offering properties to large international investors ahead of
In the second year of activity in the sector, Engel & Völkers has doubled its turnover after brokering over 200 sales through the offices of Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Bilbao, Vigo and Andorra. By 2018 we plan to open more offices in five Spanish cities as well as in Lisbon, which, together with the favourable situation of the sector, will allow us to triple our turnover.
GDP growth - Annual variation Developed economies
0
Among the investments made in 2017, the retail industry accounted for a total of 3,900 million euros, 30 per cent more than in 2016, due to the growth of domestic consumption after years of containment. The hotel industry managed to break its record with 3,600 million thanks to the high number of tourists visiting the country.
For 2018, we foresee a progression in all segments. The best performance is expected, on the one hand, in logistics in the face of the growing demand generated by the unstoppable growth of electronic commerce. On the other hand, in alternative products such as residences for the elderly and students, both due to the accumulation of unmet demand during the crisis and the interest of investors in new niches of profitability before the foreseeable exhaustion of the cycle in the traditional products. The sector will also benefit from the improvement of investment activity in Catalonia as doubts about legal security and economic stability dissipate.
Europe will grow in a rhythmic manner, around 2%, with Spain as one of the leading countries. The economy of the United Kingdom will again be weakened by the uncertainty about the Brexit negotiations. The consequences of the process are already taken into account in the economy, with a slowdown of consumption and investment, weak
2
With respect to the former, Spain continues to be a very attractive destination for investors as it offers higher returns than the main European cities while still leaving room for capital gains generation in the short and medium term. In the international arena, political stability in Europe, the low interest rate environment and the consolidation of GDP growth above 1.5-2 per cent attract capital flows to countries such as Spain, Ireland and Germany where investment profitability is higher than a fixed income.
“In 2018 there will be an increase in investment in all segments, with logistics and alternative products as the main players”
1 1
Investment in the tertiary sector in Spain is still highly attractive for national and international investors, with figures reaching almost 14,000 million euros in 2017. The significant 45 per cent increase in the volume invested with respect to 2016 has been based on national and global factors.
The estimates point to an overall growth of 3.9%, more than recorded in 2016 and 2017, but still lower than the historical averages. The United States will make progress up to 2.3%, supported by higher spending on consumption, tax cuts, the surge in business investment and job creation, while regulatory reforms are still pending.
0
Alberto Sarrias Managing Director Engel & Völkers Commercial Spain, Portugal and Andorra
The logistics sector deserves special mention, with an investment of 900 million euros in 2017. This sector has experienced its second best year since 2014, while in alternative assets it has reached around 600 million euros, until it became the segment that has further grown.
2018 will bring the definitive consolidation of the expansive cycle. As highlighted by international organisations, the global economy will evolve in a synchronised manner, with an increase in consumer confidence and generalised improvements in investment, employment and trade. The main risks are geopolitical (North Korea, USA, Brexit ...).
2
The property investment companies turned their investment effort around in the years after the crisis by taking advantage of the best opportunities and the availability of quality products. Now, they have started the selling process motivated by the expiration of the three-year period that the law required them to keep the rented property. Once this period has expired, these investors can cash in their accumulated capital gains and everything can be foreseen that we will witness a change in the hands of these assets and an increase in prices.
Source: FMI
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Property market Consumer confidence (Base 100) 120 115 110 105 100 95
Advanced economies
2 08 01 /2 7 01 7
6 2
0
1
5 2
0
1
4 2
0
1
3 1 0 2
2
0
1
2
90
World
Emerging economies
Source: FMI
Inflation Inflation remains at low levels, despite the rebound of major economies due to financial reasons, such as high indebtedness, demographic and technological matters. In developed countries, the increase in prices will remain below 2%, with the exception of United Kingdom, where inflation will move up around 3% as a result of the depreciation of the pound. Inflation in developed countries Interanual variation 3,0 % 2,5 % 2,0 % 1,5 %
unexpected supply disruptions and geopolitical events -especially in the Middle East and Latin America-, and on the other hand, the high level of inventories and the rapid response of oil producing countries could neutralise any significant price increase. Without inflationary pressures, central banks will not be forced to accelerate the withdrawal of stimulus measures, although some have already started to act. This is the case of the Federal Reserve in the US, which last year raised interest rates three times to the range of 1.25% -1.5%, advancing another three increases for 2018. We can also review the interest rates that are set by the Bank of England, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is progressively withdrawing extraordinary liquidity measures although at the moment it has maintained the rates at 0%. In any case, the change in monetary policy will be gradual, without causing shocks and without affecting financial stability. Foreign exchange
1,0 %
House prices continue to advance in much of the world as low interest rates play a key role. Given the importance that the housing sector has for the financial and macroeconomic stability of a country, it should be noted that price increases are occurring at a steady and sustained pace as a result of applying macroprudential policies designed to avoid excessive credit. and new bubbles. This is the case of countries such as Belgium, Luxembourg, Holland, Israel and New Zealand.
especially in an environment of low returns on many assets. The best locations will play a leading role as households with high purchasing power increase and international demand consolidates, especially from China. The main risk for the sector is the tightening of monetary policy, although historically the housing market has shown resistance to these phases of the cycle, while the rate hikes tend to be associated with a healthy economy and inflation. The sector also faces technological challenges among other issues, which will change the way homes are built and marketed in the coming decades.
The expectation that prices will continue to rise, with a growing relevance of rent, explains the demand for investment in housing in the main cities of the world,
GDP development in Spain - Year-on-year change 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
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-4 %
7 0 1 2
6 0 1 2
5 0 1 2
4 0 1 2
3 0 1 2
2 0 1 2
1 0 1 2
0 0 1 2
9 0 0 2
8 0 0 2
7 0 0 2
0 0
6
-5 %
2
With oil making a comeback, it adds excessive pressure on prices. In the medium term, uncertainty will prevent predictions because, on the one hand, it can cause
-3 %
5
Source: OCDE
-2 %
0 0
8 1 2 0
7 1 2 0
6
5
1 2 0
1 2 0
4 1 2 0
3
2
1 2 0
1 2 0
1 1 2 0
2 0
1
0
0%
-1 %
2
0,5 %
Expectations of interest rate hikes will attract capital that seeks higher returns, which will favour the appreciation of certain currencies although volatility will be the dominant note in the market. The ECB‘s more cautious stance with the Federal Reserve can halt the euro‘s rise against the dollar by stabilising it around 1.15-1,20. The pound, for its part, could continue to depreciate because of the Brexit process despite the interest rate increases planned by the Bank of England.
Source: INE
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Spain‘s economy Conjuncture The loss of dynamism recorded by Spain‘s economy during the second half of 2017 will be accentuated throughout 2018 due to the slowdown in domestic demand. Private consumption will be slowed down both by the adjustment of household spending decisions on disposable income and by the negative impact associated with the situation in Catalonia. This slowdown will weigh heavily on the economy, as private consumption has been key in the recovery, accounting for nearly 60% of GDP growth in the last three years.
Unemployment Rate (Active Population Survey) 28 % 24 % 22 % 18 % 14 %
A lower public consumption is also expected, in line with the objectives of reducing the public deficit. The foreign sector will continue to contribute to the economy, but more modestly than in 2017. The result will be this year‘s GDP growth of between 2.3% and 2.5% compared to 3.1% in 2017, which was the largest among the developed economies.
10 %
Inflation left a negative terrain in September 2016 and since then it has remained positive for 16 months, standing at 1.1% at the end of 2017. Looking ahead to 2018, the forecasts point to new price increases that would bring the year-on-year rate to 1.6% in December. Despite the rebound, inflation will remain at moderate levels, reflecting the containment of wages and the favourable impact of the euro appreciation on the cost of imports.
7
6 2
0
1
5 2
0
1
4 2
0
1
3 2
0
1
2 2
0
1
1 2
0
1
0 2
0
1
9 2
0
1
8 2
0
0
7 2
0
0
6
0
2
0
0
0 0
0 2
2
Although job creation will move at a moderate pace in line with the growth of the economy, the positive trend in the job market will allow a reduction in unemployment rate to around 15%, the lowest level since 2008. The figure is the generation of about 500,000 jobs per year.
5
6%
Source: INE
Financing The development of the property market is based on financing conditions, which continue to be favourable. The Euribor, the index to which the majority of mortgages in our country are referenced, has been at negative levels since February 2016 and the forecasts from experts suggest that it could be maintained within this rate for at least until the end of 2018. This is why the forecast sees low inflation, which leaves some room for the ECB to maintain interest rates at the current levels.
Euribor in 12 months 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%
1,5 %
7 1
6 1
2 0
1 4
2 0
1 2
0 2
0
1 0
2
8
0
0 0
2
0 6
2
4 0
0
0 2
0
0 2
1,7 1,1
1,6
2
1,8
1,5 1,5 1,6
0
1,9 1,6
-1 % 0
2,6
2,3
2,5 %
0%
2
3,0 3,0
0
3,5 %
The Euribor ended last December at -0.19%, when it was at its all time low. However, it is expected that the index will change its trend and begin to rise. It all depends on when the ECB completes its stimulus plan.
2
Annual development of the CPI
0,7 0,7 0,5 %
0,2
-0,1
-0,3 -0,8 -0,8
-0,5 %
-0,6
-0,8
-1,1 -1,0
-1,5 %
7
7
1
1
0
1 2
/2
0
7 1 1
/2
1 0
7 1 0
/2
7
1 0
1 0 9
/2
0
7 0 8
/2
1 0
7 0 7
/2
7
1 0
7
1 0 6
/2
0 /2
7
1 0
/2
0 4
0 5
7
1 0
1 0 3
/2
0
7 0 2
/2
6
1 0
6
1 0 1
/2
0
1 1 2
/2
0
6 1 1
/2
6
1 0
1 1 0
/2
0
6 0 9
/2
1 0
6 0 8
/2
6
1 0
1 0 7
/2
0
6 0 6
/2
1 0
6 0 5
/2
6
1 0
1 0 4
/2
0
6 0 3
/2
1
1 0
/2
/2
0 2
0 1
0
6
-2,5 %
Source: INE
8|
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Spain
The year 2017 came to a close as the best year for the tertiary sector in the property market since the crisis ended in 2014. The volume of investment in residential buildings, offices, commercial premises, industrial, hotels and alternative products amounted to about 14,000 million euros, consolidating growth in practically all the segments, especially in retail and hotel industries.
Retail
This is a fact that confirms the tertiary sector is currently going through an excellent time in Spain, a country that continues as a focus of investment for both foreign and national investors. The outlook for the year 2018 will be growth - but at a more moderate pace. Investors are beginning to realise that the market is in the upper part of a cycle in which stocks are still rising due to the strong demand and the scarcity of quality products.
Income levels in the most commercial sections of the main streets of Madrid maintain the upward trend. In the most expensive streets, such as Preciados, rent prices surpass the 250 euros / sqm per month and in Serrano or Gran Vía the rent prices of the best premises range between the 240 and 220 euros / sqm per month, respectively. In other commercial streets, such as Ortega y Gasset in its best location, prices reach up to 190 euros / sqm a month and in Goya 120 euros / sqm. Another street to highlight is Fuencarral, which is very active with rent prices of 145 euros / sqm per month.
The retail industry of Madrid is characterised by its diversity before the large number of active shopping areas throughout the city. Each of them has its own uniqueness and the variation of income depends on its exact location, the property‘s features as well as the flow of pedestrians and road traffic.
Madrid The capital city of Spain is a point of reference for both national and foreign investors, and concentrates a large part of its purchases and sales in the tertiary sector, which is also favoured by the situation in Catalonia and Brexit. Offices The economic recovery has had a positive influence on office leasing in the year 2017, thus closing the year with an increase of 30 per cent in rentals in relation to the previous year, surpassing the figure of 600,000 sqm. The last quarter of the year saw an increase in the number of large volume operations, which has increased the average leased area. However, property investment in an environment of political stability and the current low interest rates is still more profitable than having a fixed income.
“The offices in Madrid offer between 4 per cent and 6 per cent of profitability that can go up to 6-10 per cent”
In the most secondary areas and nerve centres of the city, the rent prices have suffered huge declines in the prime areas, thus leaving us with a wide variety of prices. The territories that show a mixed profile of occupants are the residential buildings and offices, which are also highly sought.
The general office availability figure is around 11 per cent. In the Central Business Area, the availability rate reaches 7.5 per cent and 6.5 per cent in the city centre. Outside the M-30 we can find higher rates ranging from 14 per cent to 19 per cent and reaching up to 20 per cent in areas further away from the periphery.
For investment purposes, the commercial premises offer a yield of between 3 per cent and 4 per cent in the prime area, between 4 per cent and 6 per cent in the second lines of commercial areas, and between 6 per cent and 8 per cent in the third lines. In terms of leasing, the catering industry is one of the most active and one of the most eager to pay a higher price for such facilities.
The Central Business Area has been the most sought after location for offices in Madrid, thus reaching 40 per cent of total leases. Other areas with good activity levels were the A2, with 22 per cent leasing, and city centre with 11 per cent. The public and technological sectors have been the most active in the search for offices in 2017, followed by the financial sector and professional services. Engel & Völkers has improved its growth expectations during 2017 in the closing of numerous rental and sale operations. These include the participation in the leasing contracts of the new offices of a prestigious and reputable international law firm in Beatriz Building at number 29, José Ortega y Gasset Street. The new tenant occupies approximately 6,100 sqm of the building.
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- Prices per square metre in Madrid‘s commercial premises (€)
Average price for rental Prime zone
200 - 250
Zona central Secundaria
50
Extrarradio
20 Rango en venta
Prime zone
8.000 -14.000
Zona secundaria
5.000 - 8.000
Extrarradio
2.000 - 5.000
Buildings, industrial buildings and hotels In this last segment, renovation buildings for sale stand out, with returns of up to 30%. This is far more than the profitability of between 3% and 6% for residential buildings and the range between 6-10% for the industrial buildings. On the other hand, hotels offer a return of 6% from the point of view of real estate investment and without taking into account the expansion potential of such business. The profile of the buyer is divided between the foreign investor, who seeks short-term returns that the financial market does not offer, and the national buyer, who wants to put their money in a safe investment with long-term returns. These investors all search in prime areas regardless of the type of asset they‘re seeking. The quality of the property prevails over the price in a market where customers are very professional and are very knowledgeable about the business. 2017 has been a very positive year for Engel & Völkers, having increased the number of sales in our portfolio by 30%. It has also increased the type of property that we have in our portfolio ranging from residential buildings for renovation, hotels, empty commercial premises and offices for lease as well as industrial warehouses. On the other hand, investments have grown by 37% compared to the previous year and demand has increased by 42%. Prices per square metre for residential buildings to renovate in Madrid (€)
Prime Resto Madrid capital
Mín.
Máx.
Medio*
5.000
9.000
6.500
2.000
5.000
3.200
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Barcelona In Barcelona, the volume of investment in residential buildings, commercial premises, offices, industrial buildings and hotels remained on the rise in 2017. Although a slowdown has been noted at the end of the year and beginning of 2018 due to the political situation, the sector continues to be highly attractive for investors in the medium term. Residential buildings The volume of investment in residential buildings that are in need of renovation have suffered the consequences of political instability after a very promising start to the year. This decrease in sales has not turned, for the time being, into a drop in prices due to the fact that the owners consider this situation to be temporary. In fact, the price
Plots
Offices
Hotels
This segment benefits from the significant volumes of land sales carried out by promoters constituted by large foreign investment funds. At this moment, the sellers are starting to focus on plots of land with development potential in the face of their scarcity that allow the developer to obtain the construction permit within a period of no more than 4-5 months. Therefore, 2018 will be the year of the consolidation of continuous sales in this type of product (land plots) that accumulates a demand that has not been experienced for several years.
The volume of investment in offices in Barcelona has been around 850 million euros, exceeding by almost 30 per cent the 2016. The business park offices are about 5,900,000 sqm and the availability rate decreases at a good pace, currently standing at around 8 per cent.
Barcelona has been consolidated as the first national destination by number of overnight stays and the second city by its number of travellers, with 76,000 hotel beds distributed in more than 600 accommodations.
Local areas Eixample, Ciutat Vella and Gracia are the areas with the greatest demand for places to rent, with Eixample as the most expensive area with prices ranging between 100 and 250 euros / sqm. The most sought products are the local ones in terms of profitability, with yields of between 4 per cent and 6 per cent in the best locations.
The most popular area is the centre of the business district, where the average price for rent is between 20 and 23 euros / sqm. This is significantly lower than the price in some symbolic buildings, where prices of 30 euros / sqm can be achieved. Engel & Völkers‘ Commercial division has carried out more than 20 office leasing contracts, including the sale of a building with more than 3,000 sqm of offices in the Mas Blau industrial estate, near the airport, and next to the family office of the Grifols family.
Among the contracts managed by Engel & Völkers, which has more than 300 commercial premises available for rent, transfer and sale in Barcelona, stands out the sale of a shop on Escudellers Street in Ciutat Vella for 1.5 million euros, with a profitability of around 6.5 per cent.
impact per square metre on the buildings that are in need of renovation in the most sought after areas by investors now exceeds the average of 3,000 euros / sqm. This represents a growth of more than 20 per cent compared to the year 2016. The most prominent players for this type of investment continue to be Eixample, Ciutat Vella and Barceloneta. In the first two locations, Engel & Völkers marketed the sale of four residential buildings in 2017. Price per square metre in the buildings for sale in Barcelona (€)
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Min.
Max.
Eixample
3.000
5.000
Barceloneta
2.500
3.200
Ciutat Vella
2.300
3.000
Raval
2.000
2.500
In the case of transfers, it is remarkable the increase of demand for premises destined as restoration businesses. In the year 2018 it is foreseeable that there will be an increase in investment in these types of assets, especially in profitability, due to the downward pressure of prices caused by the political situation and the uncertainty generated by such circumstances.
The 2015 moratorium that suspended the granting of tourist accommodation permits meant the paralysis of many projects in the city, but despite this, in 2016 Barcelona stood as the third city in hotel investment in Spain, after Madrid and the Canary Islands. In 2017, the volume amounted to 325 million euros, which is 26 per cent more than it was in the previous year.
Price per square metre of rent in Barcelona (€)
Locals
Min.
Max.
Eixample
100
250
Diagonal
80
150
Gràcia
20
80
Zona Centro Negocios
20
23
Otras zonas céntricas
15
19
Zonas Out
10
14
Offices
Valencia At the end of the year 2016, Valencia experienced a surge in the purchase and sale of property that has been confirmed throughout 2017 with the rise in prices and the increase in the number of sales and purchases. The biggest price increase has occurred in buildings that are located in Ciutat Vella with permits or the possibility of obtaining permits for holiday rental purposes. This is the star product because it offers higher returns that in some cases reach up to 6.5 per cent. The profile of the buyer is divided equally between the Spaniards and foreigners. Out of the 50 per cent of nationals, 25 per cent are locals seeking mainly buildings for holiday rentals in the centre of the city, while the other 25 per
cent are family offices and promoters looking for business opportunities in order to add value with their management. On the other hand, international clients look for profits or properties that are already rented out and profitability to develop through ‚turnkey‘ projects. The Engel & Völkers‘ product portfolio in Valencia focuses on buildings that require renovation and hotels in the historic centre, as well as land for new construction in consolidated areas with higher than average income levels. The forecast for the year 2018 points towards an increase in the number of sales as well as higher demand and higher price per square metre. In fact, the price of
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Andorra
buildings where tourism activities can be developed has increased in the year 2017 by reaching 30 per cent in some cases. There is also a rebound in the promotions and land sales, mainly in already consolidated areas, since the land packages in development areas are, for the most part, in the property portfolio of banks.
The foreign investor accounts for 70 per cent of purchases made within the tertiary sector of Andorra, with strong demand from the self-employed, small businesses and hotel owners. The remaining 30 per cent are national investors looking to start their own business or make an investment that offers high profits. Engel & Völkers currently has in its portfolio a wide range of properties that cover all the most sought after segments such as offices, premises, hotels, buildings, plots of land and industrial buildings.
Prices per square metre for residential buildings to renovate in Valencia
Zone
Average price
Ciutat Vella
1.450
Eixample-Ruzafa
1.250
Extramurs
1.050
Rent and sale prices per square metre for offices in Andorra (€)
Rental
Pontevedra The tertiary sector registered a strong setback during the crisis, concentrating its activity in very specific areas of the city. Although in the year 2017 a recovery in rental demand has been observed, it continues to be limited to just a few streets in the case of premises and the financial centre, such as offices. There has also been an increase in the purchase and sale of shops and this factor draws attention to the high prices reached in the most commercial streets of the city. While the tertiary sector is a good investment option in Vigo, where offices and commercial premises offer around 4-5 per cent profitability, 98 per cent of the buyers are Spanish. The offices and the premises are acquired by investors while the hotels are sought by national and foreign businesses, and the sought after industrial warehouses are of interest to the companies.
“The activity of Engel & Völkers Commercial division in Vigo has grown by 25 per cent in 2017 compared to the previous year” Vigo stands out as the most dynamic city in Galicia, which makes it an ideal destination for investors and new companies. The forecast for 2018 points to a growth in rentals in both offices and premises resulting from the improvement of economic activity, as well as an increase in the setting up of hotel chains thanks to the development of tourism in the city. Price per square metre (€)
14 |
Rental
Sale
Offices
4-6
500
Locals
5-9
4.000 - 5.000
Sale
Min.
Max.
Medium*
Min.
Max.
Medium*
Canillo
6
12
9
2.000
2.500
2.250
Encamp
5
10
7,5
2.000
2.500
2.250
Ordino
6
12
9
2.500
3.200
2.850
La Massana
6
12
9
2.000
3.200
2.600
Andorra la Vella
8
18
13
3.000
4.700
3.850
St. Julià de Lòria
5
10
7,5
1.800
2.300
2.050
Escaldes - Engordany
8
18
13
3.000
4.700
3.850
Rent and sale prices per square metre for locals in Andorra (€)
Rental
Sale
Min.
Max.
Medium*
Min.
Max.
Medium*
Canillo
6
12
9
2.000
2.500
2.250
Encamp
5
14
9,5
2.000
2.500
2.250
Ordino
5
15
10
2.500
4.500
3.500
La Massana
5
15
10
2.000
4.500
3.250
Andorra la Vella
15
45
30
3.500
7.500
5.500
St. Julià de Lòria
5
10
7,5
1.800
2.300
2.050
Escaldes - Engordany
15
45
30
3.500
7.500
5.500
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Credits
Editor Engel & Völkers Spain S.L. Avenida Diagonal, 640 6ª planta E-08017 Barcelona España Drafting Stakeholders PR Layout Mediabureau Coordination Sarah Brasseur Silke Dittrich
All the information has been extensively researched. No responsibility is taken for the integrity and accuracy of the content. The reproduction of content protected by copyright is only allowed with consent from Engel & Völkers Spain S.L., provided that the relevant reference is made to the source.