| Grain
Grain and oilseed weekly market report key drivers of market volatility. We need to watch stories for both the northern and southern Hemispheres. The price risk is heightened by the massive net long position held by managed money funds in Chicago corn futures. Net longs as a percentage of open interest now stand at 22.3%, the most bullish position for funds since February 2011. In Brazil, Safrinha (second crop) maize planting is almost complete, but soil moisture is lacking after la Niña. Longer range weather forecasts suggest only average rainfall in the next month, which may hinder crop prospects. StoneX have trimmed their estimate of Safrinha maize by 3.65Mt, to 77.65Mt. Conab will release their latest forecast on 8 April. North American weather will also be key as maize planting progresses and other crops develop. The first USDA crop report of the year was published yesterday and showed winter wheat conditions to be broadly in line with the five-year average. Finally, Russian analytics firm Sovecon cut its estimate of 2020/21 Russian wheat exports by 200Kt, to 38.9Mt.
UK focus Global markets
G
lobal grain markets ended last week strong; the USDA plantings and stocks report was bullish for maize, which drove the whole complex higher.
The 2021 US maize area was seen at 36.9Mha, 2.2% below trade expectations in a pre-report poll by Refinitiv. US stocks of maize as at 1 March were 195.6Mt, 1.7Mt tighter than trade expectations. The bullish signals for maize were enough to outweigh the bearish wheat news. US farmers intend to plant 18.8Mha to wheat in 2021, 3.1% above trade expectations and 4.5% up year-on-year. Further, US stocks of all wheat were 2.8% above trade estimates at 35.8Mt. As we move through April and into May, weather stories will likely be
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Farming Monthly | April 2021
It was a short week of trading for UK markets last week, with Friday a Bank Holiday. In the run up to Wednesday’s USDA reports new crop (Nov-21) feed wheat futures moved lower. The bullish USDA reports saw Nov-21 feed wheat futures move up £3.25/t, on Wednesday. We saw a further downward move on Thursday, with new crop wheat closing at £163.25/t, down £0.75/t ThursdayThursday. UK physical trade remained thin. This, combined with the volatility in futures caused by Wednesday’s reports, made pricing UK grain challenging last week. UK delivered values were largely flat or down, with some reductions to new crop delivered premiums.
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