Issue 5 03/06/19
Weekly Magazine Unofficial Weekly Magazine for Football Index Traders
What Next for Arsenal? After another disappointing end to a season that had shown promise, what does Unai Emery need to do to get Arsenal back in to the Champions League?
Arsene Wenger’s tenure at Arsenal can be split in to three stages. The first stage saw many trophy-laden seasons of traditional defensive steel perfectly blended with continental attacking stars. The second stage saw a barren run of silverware due to the financial restrictions brought about by a new stadium, yet the club were praised for qualifying year after year for the Champions League with a production line of talented youngsters helping to turn a profit. And
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finally, the third stage saw any positivity replaced with anger and disappointment, as the team slipped further away from Europe’s elite, with both Wenger and finances seemingly unable to keep up with the modern game. Winning the Europa League may have somewhat papered over the cracks of another disappointing season, and yet they couldn’t even achieve that. They were humiliated by Chelsea whilst finishing outside the top 4 after falling apart once again during the final weeks of the season. Europa League football beckons next season when a return to the Champions League seemed so likely to be in their grasp. The failure to address a glaring weakness is the primary reason why one of the most successful clubs in English history won’t yet return to the elite. For all the clamour of Arsenal’s beautiful attacking play, time and again they are let down by a poor defence. It’s certainly saying something when every single
Bad Week
season, the likes of Tony Adams or Patrick Vieira would have taken the team by the scruff of the neck, barking orders to ensure they push to the finish line and get back in to the top 4. Instead, the fans see Mesut Ozil (£1.19) nonchalantly walking around the pitch, shoulders slumped and with no sense of urgency as the club’s European bid falters. We have seen how Manchester City and Liverpool identified key areas they needed to plug the gaps in their squads, and they have reaped the rewards. It won’t be quite that simple at Arsenal, who not only require a lot of work but will be hindered by a limited transfer budget and a lack of top-tier European football on offer. But who do the Gunners need to start making them contenders once Godin again? Current Price Gary Cahill (£0.24) £0.41 has a wealth of experience and could be a decent
defender could be sold; and fans would probably be okay with that. Ainsley Maitland-Niles (£0.65) and Rob Holding (£0.62) have shown promise, but need better players to guide them than those currently at the club, with question marks over players who are either ageing (Laurent Koscielny, £0.45, and Nacho Monreal, £0.42) or seemingly simply useless (Shkodran Mustafi, £0.33). Question marks also remain over the team’s mental attitude. Arsenal lack leaders on the pitch to drive their team on when the going gets tough. When teams around them were dropping points this
North London: Arsenal and then Tottenham lost in their respective European Cup finals. Credit where it’s due for even being there, but the losses - and the manner of both - will take time to heal.
Good Week
Maurizio Sarri: Europa League winners, 3rd place in the league, League Cup finalists. For all the stick the Italian has received this season, he can look back on an impressive performance. And now he may be off to Juventus.
Dividend Winners 27/05 - 02/06
Manolas Current Price
£0.67 shortt e r m solution, though Arsenal could make a real statement with another free transfer: Diego Godin. The Uruguayan has been a key part of a successful Atletico team, and has the fighting spirit that the Gunners lack. Whilst rumours have long suggested he is on his way to Internazionale – another giant who has fallen in recent years – the deal appears to have stalled, with Godin reluctant to make an announcement. Should the club be able to boost finances through the sales of Mustafi and Monreal, they may also look to turn to Kostas Manolas. With Roma also failing to reach next season’s Champions League, he may be interested in a move; and a reported buyout clause of around £30m is incredibly reasonable for a consistent Serie A performer with great experience, but still with plenty of years in him at just 27 years of age. Moving forward, Adrien Rabiot (£1.62) is another free transfer of great quality who
27/05/19 Treble Media Day Media Buzz
31/05/19 Treble Media Day Media Buzz
First Harry Kane Second Jack Grealish Third Eden Hazard
First Harry Kane Second Neymar Third Sadio Mane
1260 740 380
28/05/19 Treble Media Day Media Buzz First Eden Hazard Second Mohamed Salah Third Matthijs de Ligt
840 540 480
29/05/19 Treble Match Day Media Buzz Eden Hazard 2850 Goalkeeper/Defender Emerson 121 Midfielder ✴ ✴ ✴ Eden Hazard 219 Forward 216 Pedro 30/05/19 Treble Media Day Media Buzz First Eden Hazard Second Virgil van Dijk Third Mesut Ozil
1880
740 600 510
01/06/19 5 x Media Day + Media Buzz Treble Match Day (First to Fifth) 2270 Mohamed Salah 1420 Harry Kane T. Alexander-Arnold 780 420 Sadio Mane 310 Lionel Messi Goalkeeper/Defender ✴ ✴ ✴ Alisson 180 Midfielder 93 Jordan Henderson Forward 153 Mohamed Salah 02/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) Virgil van Dijk 1920 Mohamed Salah 1540 Sadio Mane 600 490 Matthijs de Ligt Philippe Coutinho 360
460
This Week 5 x Media all week ALL SUMMER!
400
Footie: 94,907 +953
Gotze Current Price
£0.55
c o u l d b r i n g something new to their midfield in replacement of the outgoing Aaron Ramsey (£0.91). Meanwhile, Yannick Carrasco (£0.89) has long been linked with a return from China and would suit Arsenal’s style of
play at what could be a knock-down fee. Arsenal should also not be afraid to use the loan market; winger Malcom (£1.25) has been much maligned at Barcelona and would surely jump at the chance to reignite his career, whilst there is no harm in approaching James Rodriguez (£1.93) whilst question marks remain around his career. Lastly, a smart move could be to go for Mario Gotze. He has struggled in recent years through injury, but he is still young enough to produce some of the undoubted quality he displayed as a youngster, and may be available for a
reasonable price given the arrivals of Julian Brandt and Thorgan Hazard at Borussia Dortmund. He is versatile enough to play across the midfield or front three whilst, for those who love statistics, his 0.31 Expected Assists per 90 minutes was bettered only by Raheem Sterling (£4.97, 0.35) and Eden Hazard (£4.63, 0.33) in the Premier League this season. Arsenal’s summer could of course look quite different should they manage to cash in on some of their squad players, or fail to keep hold of their stars, with more money to spend on other, more expensive targets. But after years of being ridiculed for finishing 4th, they’d happily take that now. Signing these players would be a good start.
5 Questions With... Football Index Scotland Football Index Scotland has been on Football Index since August 2018, and is currently up 112% holding a £55k portfolio. ‘I started at the end of the World Cup and, despite profiting from the start, I would say it is only in the last few months that I have really started to do better’. You can follow Football Index Scotland on Twitter @HibeeIndex Best Buy: I trade quite a lot, so while this may not be my highest % return, quickest flip or biggest £ gain, Mario Gotze has been one of my best buys. I noticed him at 38p - madness that made me double-take given today he’s only turned 27, playing for a Champions League team - and bought a few thousand. I didn’t say much on Twitter as I planned to buy up as many as I could to 50p as I had a target price of 70p; a healthy return. Just a few days later his price rose to a solid 57p following a few contract negotiation articles and lightweight PL rumours. Giorginio Wijnaldum at 34p to 60p (now sold) was another decent pickup. Worst Buy: I have loads of these. The one that is stinging right now is Daniele Rugani. One of my early buys back in August, I hoped for a Chelsea transfer to follow Maurizio Sarri. This never materialised and I held, looking at a long term hold in him for when Juve’s older centre-
back pairing eventually started to bow out. I had heard good things. Fast forward to February and I am a much more active trader; the opportunity cost on him is killing me and I cut ties. I may have broken even or even made a small loss but the cost of holding that long was poor trading. With the news of Sarri moving to Juventus, he has enjoyed a spike recently; I would have been at 50% profit had I held on on what was a sizeable hold. Biggest Regret: Like most I have lots of these. Missing the Jadon Sancho rise is up there! As I started my FI journey, Sancho was THE young hype guy. I focussed on the true value (and still do predominantly) that’s tied to dividend returns and so he made no sense. At £4 old money (£1.33 current prices) I scoffed. At £7 (£2.33) I realised my mistake so I jumped on and took a 15% profit. I was on a few times actually, never going big and never riding the train to the destination. He’s now £5.28, £15.86 in old money. I don’t hold now but it will be interesting to see how his career and his FI journey go over the next few years. Best Tip: I don’t want to tip a particular player but I would rather highlight a few areas of the market that I feel are undervalued and therefore possibly some opportunities in that space for savvy traders. Goalkeepers (for in-play dividends (IPD) next season); 26-31 year olds in Performance Buzz (PB) leagues who are under 40p and have IPD potential; unfashionable teams, leagues and players with IPD potential; players returning from loans; and bargain players in teams who will feature in European competition next season. There are many hunting grounds on FI but I think pre-share split and the immediate period after saw a lot of money go into the top end. That 28% dividend increase was across the board and it looks like this sub-50p market may have been the biggest beneficiaries. Best Piece of Advice: Understand risk! Trader psychology is hugely important in today’s FI market and understanding this is key to the game right now. However, if you do not properly understand risk then there will be events that can cause unexpected and financially impacting consequences. Risk on FI goes very deep and is something you should be looking at across your portfolio in terms of exposure to certain areas, weak spots and opportunity areas. It’s also massively important at the individual trade level. I personally price all players based against dividend potential. This is far easier for sub £1 players (and even lower ideally) with regards to IPD, but you can also assess (with less accuracy) the PB and MB potential on higher priced players. Various other factors need to be brought in but at a fundamental level, pricing this way enables you to keep your risk exposure to the level you desire.
European Champions A massive congratulations must be given to both Liverpool and Chelsea for winning the Champions League and Europa League, as well as commiserations to the two losing finalists, Tottenham and Arsenal. A special shout out should go to Mohamed Salah (£4.88) who bounced back from last season’s injury disappointment to open the scoring in Madrid, along with the superb Virgil van Dijk (£3.03) and Alisson (£0.68). Meanwhile, Eden Hazard (£4.63) stole the show in Baku, though Olivier Giroud (£0.58) put in a memorable performance against his former club.
Wonderkid Profile: Nicolo Zaniolo What a difference a year makes. Just 12 months ago, Nicolo Zaniolo was being used as a makeweight in Internazionale’s transfer bid for Radja Nainggolan, being valued at little more than a few million pounds. Fast forward to the present, and Zaniolo has not only broken in to Roma’s first team, but was called up to the Italian national team before making an appearance for the Giallorossi, becoming the hottest propect in Italy. Style of Play: Zaniolo has shown traits that make him perfect for the trequartista role, drifting between midfield and attack. Technically excellent – he scored an outrageous goal back in December, Cruyff turning then feinting to send both the goalkeeper and a defender on the floor before delicately chipping it over them both – his father has likened him to former Ballon d’Or winner Kaka, whilst Italy manager Roberto Mancini compares him to Paul Pogba. Meanwhile, his former manager for the Inter Primavera team - where Zaniolo top-scored from midfield as his team won the under-19 league - has stated him to be a player of ‘quality and energy, like (Steven) Gerrard or (Frank) Current Price Lampard’; high praise indeed.
£1.57
What’s Been Said? Having become the youngest player to score three Serie A goals since Francesco Totti - who turned out to be a fairly good player - as well as the youngest Italian to score twice in a Champions League fixture, alongside being capped at national level, it’s no surprise to see transfer talk building. A host of top European clubs have been linked with the teenager, including Juventus, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, though do not be surprised to see Zaniolo arrive in England. Champions League finalists Tottenham - who have a fantastic recent record of blooding youngsters in to the starting XI - appear to be leading the pack, with both Arsenal and Manchester City monitoring too.
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