FI Weekly Mag Issue 006 - 10/06/19

Issue 6 10/06/19

Weekly Magazine Unofficial Weekly Magazine for Football Index Traders

Could the Dutch Win Euro 2020?

Having missed out on the last two major international tournaments, have the Netherlands turned a corner, or do they still lack the quality in depth to become champions?

Johan Cruyff, Johan Neeskens, Marco van Basten, Ruud Guillit, Ronald Koeman… The list goes on. Responsible for some of the greatest players of all time, the Netherlands certainly have a talent for bringing through young stars. And yet, in recent years, all hasn’t been quite right in Holland.

In a day and age where qualification is largely straightforward for the European powerhouse nations by thrashing the minnows – a David and Goliath story where Goliath wins 99% of the time – it is barely excusable for a top side to fail to qualify for a major tournament. Yet the Dutch

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inexplicably managed to fall not once, but twice: failure to qualify for Euro 2016 was compounded two years later, as they also failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. Surprisingly, this isn’t even a one-off for the Oranje, who are arguably the greatest nation to have never lifted the World Cup. In the ten World Cup tournaments since backto-back second-place finishes during the 1970s, the Dutch have failed to qualify for four of them. To put that in to context, that is the same amount as England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Brazil and Argentina combined.

Gravenberch Current Price

£1.28

Bad Week

This could partly be explained by the fact that, for all the attacking flair and Total Football for which the Netherlands are famed for, a questionable defence has somehow survived by playing better than the sum of their parts. For every sprinkling of stardust they have continued to produce, it seems to be evened out by a player you wouldn’t expect to see.

Take the World Cup Final in 2010: the Netherlands back five comprised of Maarten Stekelenburg, Gregory van der Wiel, John Heitinga, Joris Mathijsen and Gio van Bronckhorst, with Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong sitting in front of them. When you contrast this with Spain’s team – Iker Casillas, Sergio Ramos, Gerard Pique, Carles Puyol, Joan Capdevila, Sergio Busquets and Xabi Alonso – you begin to wonder how they even made it that far.

So what about the Dutch now? It could be

Neymar: A rape allegation has gone public, whilst the Brazilian star has been ruled out of the Copa America. After an injury-hit campaign last season, Neymar continues to hit headlines for the wrong reasons.

argued that, on paper, they still have a weaker squad than most of the top nations across the world. And yet they have overcome France, Germany and England en route to reaching the Nations League final.

Whatever you think of the stature of this tournament, beating these sides of such quality are certainly impressive.

For once, perhaps, it is their defence that is their strong point, boasting arguably the most exciting centre-back partnership in the game. Virgil van Dijk deservedly looks as though he could become the first defender – and only the fourth overall – since Fabio Cannavaro to win the Ballon d’Or. Alongside him is the world’s most sought after teenager, Matthijs de Ligt; a figure of composure that belies his tender years.

Further forward, their team has been boosted by an Ajax side who have equally confounded the odds to this season’s achievement.

Frenkie de Jong (£2.09) and Donny van de Beek (£1.67) have impressed during Ajax’s

Good Week

Cristiano Ronaldo: He might not currently be the favourite to win another Ballon d’Or, but lifting a second trophy with the national team will hold strongly in the eternal ‘Messi v Ronaldo’ debate.

C

Dividend Winners 03/05 - 09/06

De Ligt

Van Dijk

Current Price

Current Price

£3.30

£3.03

run to the Champions League semi-finals, with the latter looking likely to follow de Jong – who has signed for Barcelona – out the door.

In spite of these talents, along with other notable mentions – amongst them, Gigi Wijnaldum (£0.48), Memphis Depay (£1.72) and Steven Bergwijn (£1.49) – the team still seemingly lacks the depth of those nations they have recently beaten. And yet, here they are, finalists at the inaugural Nations League.

Could the Dutch be a dark force for the future? Perhaps.

It’s fair to expect that winning Euro 2020 may be a step too far, but recent form suggests it would take a fool to write them off completely. They continue to produce talented youngsters; Ajax’s youngest ever Eredivisie player Ryan Gravenberch is already being touted for the top. But, just like Sunday night, the feeling is that they lack firepower in all areas of their squad to jump that final hurdle.

03/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 580 Matthijs de Ligt 520 Virgil van Dijk 510 Harry Kane 480 Paul Pogba 320 Ben Chilwell

07/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 1520 Eden Hazard 1080 Daniel James 570 Matthijs de Ligt 410 Neymar 400 Virgil van Dijk

04/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 680 Paul Pogba 680 Virgil van Dijk Raheem Sterling 510 500 P.E. Aubameyang 460 Cristiano Ronaldo

08/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 610 Eden Hazard 380 Matthijs de Ligt Daniel James 350 340 Mesut Ozil 300 Paul Pogba

05/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 910 Cristiano Ronaldo 840 Virgil van Dijk 780 Matthijs de Ligt 710 Christian Eriksen 540 Raheem Sterling

09/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) 810 Cristiano Ronaldo 760 Goncalo Guedes 530 Matthijs de Ligt 510 Gareth Bale 380 Eden Hazard

06/06/19 5 x Media Day Media Buzz (First to Fifth) Neymar 1710 Daniel James 900 Eden Hazard 800 Matthijs de Ligt 800 Virgil van Dijk 730

This Week 5 x Media all week ALL SUMMER! Footie: 95,512

+605

Wonderkid Profile: Exequiel Palacios An elegant central midfielder, Exequiel Palacios’ talent has been talked about in Argentina ever since making his debut for last season’s Copa Libertadores winners at the tender age of 16. Fast forward 4 years later, and he could be on his way to Europe.

Style of Play: Slated as one of the most gifted talents to come out of River in a decade, Palacios’ is an excellent passer of the ball with a very good eye for a pass. Combined with his enjoyment for a tackle, alongside a supreme confidence and composure rarely seen in a player of his age, he displays the attributes perfect for a box-to-box midfielder. If he can add a few goals to his repertoire, he could become a formidable all-round midfield general, as well as building on his 2 caps for the national side. (Unfortunately for the midfielder, an injury saw him withdraw from this summer’s Copa America squad.)

What’s Been Said? River legend - and current manager - Marcelo Gallardo has stated that he ‘would love to have played alongside a player like Exequiel’.

A deal seemed to have been agreed to make him the latest young South American to be heading to Real Madrid, only for an injury to curtail such a move. The Spanish club are still sniffing around, but in recent weeks Arsenal look to have stepped up in their efforts to sign him. Indeed, a release clause believed to be just shy of £20m would be affordable for a Gunners side who have missed out on Champions League football. Fans will be hoping that he can put any off-field issues behind him - he has been infamous in the Argentine press for his multiple, Current Price simultaneous relationships - but with his agent seemingly confirming that he will be leaving this summer, he could become one of the bargains of the window.

£1.16

Congratulations Portugal It’s an exciting time for Portugal. Euro 2016 winners, they are now the inaugural winners of the UEFA Nations League, overcoming the Netherlands 1-0 in the final on Sunday.

Cristiano Ronaldo (£2.81) will obviously steal many of the headlines, though others deserve praise too.

Bernardo Silva (£1.86) and Goncalo Guedes (£1.09) have both capped excellent seasons at club level by showing their importance for the national teams, whilst the incredible wonderkid Joao Felix (£3.79) will build on his debut cap.

Ronaldo will be a huge loss when the day eventually comes to hang up his boots, but the future looks very bright.

5 Questions With... FIaddict FIaddict has been on Football Index since June 2017 and has a fivefigure portfolio. You can follow FIaddict on Twitter @fi_tipster Best Buy: Simone Verdi. That might seem strange given he has fallen lately, but I made a 300% return on him. I am proud of this buy as I bought at his Initial Public Offering (IPO) price, which no one else seemed to buy at. I knew he was Bologna’s main man with a good baseline and even though I was shot down by other traders I kept faith and I was rewarded the key to good trading.

Worst Buy: Romelu Lukuku, when he moved to Manchester United. I was new to the index at the time and lost £1k when I sold him. I got caught up in the ‘United premium’, the fact he scores goals and his Media Buzz (MB) should have been massive. I did not do my research: I bought against my instinct by following the herd and then panic sold at the bottom. However, great lessons were learned which I think made me double the loss back.

Biggest Regret: My biggest regret is being stubborn and being a long term trader for too long. To be successful on the index you need to be flexible and ahead of the changing cycles.

For the first 9 months I missed these cycles and reacted too slowly to trends, costing me money. I wish I had learnt this lesson sooner. Of course, this regret sits alongside wishing I had joined the index when it was first released; I could now be sitting on 20k Neymar shares!

Best Tip: It’s hard as there are so many to pick. However, I’d have to go with Ivan Perisic. For me at 64p, benchmarking against Angel Di Maria, he is good value. His end of year form was amazing and Inter will be better under Antonio Conte; but in my opinion he will move to Tottenham or Arsenal. In the Premier League he is easily a £1 player so it’s low risk for me.

Traders mention his age but he still has 3 good seasons left in him so I think it will still be easy to sell to market.

Best Piece of Advice: Warren Buffett is the king of investing and his one key motto has served me so well on the Index: ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’. Buying at the bottom of the chart and selling at the top sounds so easy to say but trading practice means this gets easier. Index trading is a skill you need to practice every day and believe in your ability. One strategy that works for me is to hedge your exit. Drip feed your exit to the market; for example, sell 10% of your holding for every 2p the player rises helps to hedge against drops but also still profit from the rises. Lastly, believe in the Index. It is an amazing product that will only get bigger so please stick in there and you will be rewarded.

Please remember: Football Index is a gambling platform.

Do not put in more than you can afford to lose.

Please gamble responsibly.