West Oxford Redevelopment - Economic Feasibility Report

WEST OXFORD DEVELOPMENT Economic Feasibility Report

Rakesh Muthah, Sarju Patel, Alec Parcell, Petya Tsokova, Stefania Ioana Stan & Wai Wong Group D Urban Design Practitce 1 (P32074) Module Leader : Dr Jon Cooper Oxford Brookes University 11 November 2016

CONTENT 1. INTRODUCTION

5

2. MASTERPLAN 2.1 Proposed Masterplan of West Oxford 2.2 Design Actions + Land Use

6 7

3. CONTEXT 3.1 Planning Policy 3.2 Target Land Value + Density 3.3 Residential Development 3.4 Hotel Development 3.5 Commercial Development 3.6 Culture + Leisure Development

8 10 11 12 13 14

4. FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS 4.1 Feasibility Spreadsheet Summary 4.2 Initial Spreadsheet 4.3 Second Spreadsheet 4.4 Final Spreadsheet 4.5 Project Phasing and Cash Flow

16 17 18 19 20

5. CONCLUSION

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6. REFERENCES

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Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

1.INTRODUCTION

DESIGN VISION STATEMENT “To create a cultural hub with a distinctive character and a strong link to central Oxford that draws in both vistors and locals alike through a sustainable network of connections and a tessallation of new focal points and dynamic spaces.”

Figure 001. View of proposed Oxpens Road

Oxford is now facing the issue of population growth,which also entails economic and environmental issues - all of which strongly affect the quality of life in the city of Oxford.The rise in population increases the demand of residential development, which in turn raises the problem of more vehicular traffic. This could both affect the market value of housing and the street usage, as well as the quality of life for residents and experience for tourists.

The existing West End area has been neglected by the City of Oxford, leaving it with no active frontages nor a well-designed street network. Therefore, our vision for this proposal is to reconnect the West End to the City of Oxford by expanding the link between them and by improving the street network with Oxpens Road as main route. Meanwhile, introducing mixed-use development across the site will provide a higher density of housing and retail units, whilst taking advantage of the site’s location and create a strong link between the railway station, the River and surrounding historic buildings.

Figure 002. View of proposed residential area

ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY REPORT BRIEF The purpose of the economic feasibility report is to support the work that has already been conducted on the Oxpens Masterplan and prove its worth as a viable, mixed-use development in the West End area of Oxford. This document also explains how the government planning policies have been addressed throughout the scheme.

Masterplan A condensed introduction to the design brief that was used to generate the masterplan within Studio 1 Context - Planning Policy Analysis of the key planning policies that relate to the site to reveal the methodology used to shape the scheme Context - Target Land Value + Density A short presentation of the Oxpens masterplan as presented for the Studio 1 submission to introduce the targeted land value and density of the proposal Context - Developments in details An explanation of the assumptions for different sectors that had to be addressed to carry out the financial feasibility analysis Feasibility Analysis A compilation of the iterations of the financial assessment spreadsheet ending with the final spreadsheet which shows how the masterplan has been formed in order to meet the target land value and generate profit for the developer Conclusion Conclusion of the findings and how that has impacted upon the masterplan design. Includes calculation of the target land value of the group’s individual land parcels

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Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

2.MASTERPLAN

2.1 PROPOSED MASTERPLAN OF WEST OXFORD

Figure 003. Proposed Masterplan for the West Oxford Development

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Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

2.MASTERPLAN

2.2 DESIGN ACTIONS + LAND USE The total area of development is 161,029m2 (16.1 Ha). This includes the building blocks, streets, blue and green network and public spaces.

The Oxford City Council has put in place an action plan that promotes the redevelopment of the Oxpens area of West Oxford, which has become a run down and socially disconnected part of Oxford.

The project was titled Connecting and Retrofitting West Oxford and encourages the team ‘to respond to the opportunities and needs of the western edge of Oxford city centre in a way which takes on board the economic, social, environmental and urban design realities of this location.’ (Oxford Brookes University, 2016)

DESIGN OBJECTIVES 1. Transformation of this part of the city to bring it up to the standard ‘Oxford’s reputation deserves’ 2.

Developments will be ‘economically and socially sustainable’

3. The area must have a ‘strong sense of community’ 4. The area must be ‘attractive to visitors – providing new retail, leisure and community uses’ 5.

It must have quality open spaces, and streets where people can wander (Oxford Brookes University, 2016)

Figure 004. Ground Floor Land Use diagram

DESIGN ACTIONS DA 1 Create a connected network of streets and increase permeability DA 2 Facilitate urban life through the creation of a sequence of places where people can work or relax DA 3 Enhance and further develop the existing blue and green network amenities DA 4 Create perimeter blocks, walkable and well connected streets within West Oxford DA 5 Create a dynamic and distinctive neighbourhood Key Residential Retail Commercial Restaurant Hotel Educational Gallery Museum Artist Studio Leisure Gym Parking Figure 005. First Floor Land Use diagram

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Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

3.CONTEXT

3.1 PLANNING POLICY The following section outlines the planning policies that apply to the West End area of Oxford and how they have been taken into consideration when developing the masterplan.

PLANNING POLICY

DETAILED DESIGN ACTIONS

The City Council will only grant planning permission for development that:a) provides good access and facilities for pedestrians and for cyclists, and b) complies with the minimum cycle parking standards ...

POLICY TA.3 - TOURIST INFORMATION The City Council will seek contributions towards improvements to tourist information and signage from the development of tourist attractions and major developments in the city centre for: a. additional tourist information points, including the park and ride sites, the bus station and Oxford station; b. interpretative displays; c. extending and enhancing the network of signs for pedestrians and cyclists in Oxford; and d. improvements to traffic sign-posting for tourists;

DA 1

TR.4: PEDESTRIAN & CYCLE FACILITIES

D.A.1a Increase the number of cycle paths D.A.1b Improve the local transport network along Oxpens Road D.A.1c Create new pedestrian routes towards the historic quarter of the city centre D.A.1d Enhance the pedestrian and vehicular connection between the railway station and Oxford west end area

SUMMARY The masterplan advises to reconnect the railway station to the Westgate development by providing high quality pedestrian walkways and cycle paths, especially along Oxpens Road. In order to strenghten this connection, new public transport is also proposed, including the redesign of the transport links and the location of new bus stops on the Oxpens Road to invite a larger flow of people.

The public realm will be enhanced across the West End...

Streets and public spaces should be designed in accordance with the framework set out in the design code.

WE5: PUBLIC SPACES Development of sites on or near those identified for public spaces will be expected to help create the spaces.

The incorporation of other public/semi-public spaces of a more intimate scale within schemes will be encouraged as long as buildings do not front onto these spaces at the expense of creating good street frontages.

DA 2

WE1: PUBLIC REALM D.A.2a Create street activity D.A.2b Create new open public spaces D.A.2c Develop the public realm on Oxpens Road to revitalise the area and create a vibrant place

SUMMARY The masterplan suggests providing a new public space by redeveloping the Worcester Street car park with an addition of a museum, open space and sculpture park next to Oxpens Road in collaboration with the college. These will animate the street with social activities and bring economic benefit to the area.

Oxpens Field will be enhanced to create a high quality open space with areas for formal and informal play, planted gardens and a wetland nature area on the south of the park, along the Thames and Castle Mill Stream.

WE9: THE THAMES Development on the Oxpens site must carefully consider its relationship to the Thames and allow for pedestrian and cycle access along the river frontage and improved access to the river frontage.

Waterside development proposals should protect or create wildlife habitats along the watercourse.

WE 28: LEISURE Opportunities for leisure should continue to be provided in the Oxpens area.

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DA 3

WE8: OXPENS FIELD D.A.3a Encourage a healthy lifestyle D.A.3b Create a sculpture park adjacent to the college D.A.3c Integrate green spaces into the design of museum quarter D.A.3d Provide open access to the public of the water’s edge in the museum quarter

SUMMARY The masterplan encourages a healthy lifestyle by providing open spaces including a museum park, a sculpture park along Oxpens Road and by reactivating the waterside of the site. A variety of facilites, including a new leisure centre, alongside with the existing ice rink will be developed in order to encourage a new gathering point of leisure activities.

Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

3.CONTEXT

3.1 PLANNING POLICY

PLANNING POLICY

DETAILED DESIGN ACTIONS

The new pedestrian and cycle links identified should be created to improve access and movement. When appropriate development of sites on or having an impact upon those identified for new links will be expected to help deliver them and proposals must not prejudice their delivery.

WE3: REDESIGN OF STREETS AND JUNCTIONS IN THE WEST END Developer contributions will be sought towards the redesign of streets and spaces as set out in the AAP. Planning permission will not be granted for the development of sites on or having an impact upon those streets or junctions identified for improvements...

DA 4

WE2: NEW LINKS D.A.4a Create new focal points D.A.4b Create a walkable neighbourhood for ease of movement D.A.4c Activate the edges D.A.4d Create safe neighbourhoods through passive surveillance

SUMMARY The masterplan suggests to create new focal points in order to connect the railway station and the city centre. The proposed blocks are designed within walkable dimensions 80-100m (LllewynDavies Planning, 2010) which suggests to activate the frontages with pedestrian and cyclist movement.

POLICY CP.9 - CREATING SUCCESSFUL NEW PLACES Planning permission will only be granted subject to whichever of the following factors are relevant to the development: a. building blocks, routes and spaces are clearly inter-related; g. building fronts are ‘active’ (allowing people to go in and out or look in and out) with entrances and windows next to public streets and spaces;

On site of 0.2 hectares or greater, planning permission will only be granted for developments that incorporate more than one use. The mix of uses must be appropriate and take advantage of the opportunities that the site presents to achieve the diversity and range of objectives that are an essential part of the vision for the West End, such as cultural attractions.

DA 5

WE20: MIXED USES D.A.5a Create a cultural hub D.A.5b Introduce variation in terms of land use, building height and scale to create an exciting townscape

WE24: CULTURAL ACTIVITY

SUMMARY

Planning permission will be granted for the creation of new facilities that will add diversity to the cultural scene, such as cultural attractions, artists’ studios, galleries and museums.

The masterplan introduces mixed use development across the site by providing a combination of residential, hotel, retail, office and leisure spaces. In order to encourage cultural activities, a number of facilities that form a cultural quarter are proposed within the site.

This cultural quarter is necessary to ensure that there is a magnet that draws tourists and locals alike to the area. The proposal is for a museum, a gallery space and artist studios all of which to generate activity at ground floor level and to encourage pedestrian circulation through the site. The proposed builings are designed within the height restrictions suggested by the council as reference to Oxford’s historic character and succesful townscape (Oxford City Council, 2005).

POLICY HE.9 - HIGH BUILDING AREA Planning permission will not be granted for any development within a 1,200 metre radius of Carfax Tower which exceeds 18.2 m (60 ft) in height or ordnance datum (height above sea level) 79.3 m (260 ft) (which ever is the lower) except for minor elements of no great bulk.

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3.CONTEXT

3.2 TARGET LAND VALUE + DENSITY

MAINSTREAM MARKETS FIVE-YEAR FORECAST VALUES

TARGET LAND VALUE For a financially viable project, the residual land value for Oxford, must be at least £4,500,000 per Hectare. The figure is extracted from the Department for Communities & Local Government, from which the target land value has been set. According to the final calculations obtained from the RLV spreadsheet, the project has an estimated £5,686,773 per Hectare.The detailed assumptions result in an ideal balance between density and the type of housing. The net residual land value demonstrates that a developer could pay for the site and still maintain their profit margin.

UK

LONDON

SOUTH EAST

2017 2017

2017 2017

2017

0.0%

0.0%

2.0%

2018

2018

2018

2.0%

3.0%

2.0%

2019

2019

2019

5.5%

4.5%

6.5%

2020

2020

2020

3.0%

2.0%

4.0%

2021

2021

2021

2.0%

1.0%

1.5%

5-YEAR

5-YEAR

5-YEAR

13%

11%

17%

Table 001. Mainstream Market Five-Year Forecast Values (Savills UK, 2016)

DEVELOPMENT DENSITY The ‘West End Action Plan’ (2015) highlights that there is a necessity to strike a balance between density for accommodation and commercial activity. Newly developed properties in Oxford are predominantly 1 to 2 bedroom apartments. However, Oxford City Council encourages greater density where commercial and residential land is used in conjunction. Thereby, efficiently untilising space whilst simultaneously maintaining a harmonious environment. This report focuses on achieving this balance within the masterplan.

The west end area is in the proximity of Oxford city centre, thereby it is essential to achieve an optimum density acroos the masterplan in order to achieve maximum profit. Jan Gehl’s ‘Cities for People’(2010), illustrates that “density which represents quantity, must be combined with quality in the form of good space”. Gehl’s quote showcases that high density areas must be of qualitative significance implying that the space is both of monetary value and provides a high standard of living.

Increasing commercial and residential activities within the area will create a vaster public transportation network which will help to support the economic viability of the masterplan. (source) According to the ‘Land Use Change’ (2014) statistics, the average density for new build developments in Oxford is around 55dpH. Theis scheme deliveres a net density of 84,9 units per Hectare. However, as highlighted earlier the predominant new builds are 1 to 2 bedroom apartments and this scheme includes commercial developments, which by nature will have greater density. Thereby, the masterplan’s density is suitable for supporting the mixed use development which was the goal of the design brief.

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Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

3.CONTEXT

3.3 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT MIXED-USE BLOCKS Mixed-use perimeter block housing has enabled the development of a scheme which has a great variation of façades and activation. In the centre of the scheme, located closest to the Oxpens Road, the design decision was taken to integrate narrow plots into the ground floor frontage, encouraging activation and variety of the unit use. At this level there are no apartments facing the road as this is prime frontage which is an oppotunity to take advantage of the footfall in the area.

The use of this at ground level has enabled the application of single-aspect apartments from first floor level upwards, that are accessed from a main internal corridor and that look either into the courtyard or out onto the street. These have been located above a level of office development which furthers the diversity of the development. Where fluctuation in the building line and façade height occurs, the additional space has been used to accommodate penthouse apartments which benefit from views out across Oxford and towards the countryside. Those characteristics will increase the price of those apartments, compared to that of standard flats.

RESIDENTIAL BLOCKS Larger retail units have been integrated on the corner plots of the masterplan blocks at ground floor level with flats distributed across the floors above. These flats are smaller and they will be better suited to be studio flats or 1 bedroom apartments as they don’t need gardens and can make use of the communal spaces outside instead.

Along the western edge of the site, the proposed housing lies adjacent to the railway line. A tree buffer zone is proposed to shelter these properties from noise pollution and make the rear garden space more usable. These properties are designed to accommodate a higher number of houses as there is an opportunity for the creation of larger plot sizes in this location.

HOUSING DISTRIBUTION The West End Area Action Plan clearly stipulates a recommended housing distribution of not more than 65% flats, of which at least half should have 2 bedrooms. In addition, ideally the masterplan should include no less than 35% houses of 3, 4 and 5 bedrooms. As part of the masterplanning proposal a concerted effort was made throughout to ensure that these guidelines were adhered to.

TYPE OF DWELLING

STUDIO

1 BEDROOM

2 BEDROOMS

3 BEDROOMS

3 BEDROOMS

<65%

OXFORD CITY COUNCIL GUIDANCE MIX (%)

<32.5%

4 BEDROOMS

5 BEDROOMS

>35%

>32.5% 64.85%

35.15%

MASTERPLAN MIX INCL. AFFORDABLE DWELLINGS

8.57%

12.28%

35.57%

8.43%

20.44%

11.86%

2.85%

AVERAGE SIZE (m2)

40

50

60

75

85

100

120

MASTERPLAN NUMBER OF UNITS

30 market (sale) 15 affordable (sale) 15 affordable (rent)

43 market (sale) 15 affordable (sale) 28 affordable (rent)

114 market (sale) 15 affordable (sale) 99 affordable (rent)

40 market (sale) 15 affordable (sale) 25 affordable (rent)

62 market (sale) 10 affordable (sale) 71 affordable (rent)

41 market (sale) - affordable (sale) 42 affordable (rent)

20 market (sale) - affordable (sale) - affordable (rent)

FLATS

HOUSES

Table 002. Housing Distibution, Average size as recommeneded in Technical Housing Standards - Nationally Described Space Standard (Department for Communities and Local Government, 2015)

VALUE OF HOUSING The value of these properties is determined by market demand, as well as the property’s proximity to green spaces and/or water.

Such location can increase the value by +10% or +25% respectively. This informed the conscious decision to locate the most valuable properties close to the water of either the Thames or Cherwell Stream. In addition, a large portion of the residential property overlooks a green space, a courtyard or the public sculpture park.

Another factor considered in the process of estimating the value of the development was the response to the council’s demand for afforable housing. As the masterplan aims to create a balanced and dynamic society, it allows affordable dwellings to be purchased and socially rented alongside the market value properties. The recommended ratio of 50:50 for any estate over 10 dwellings (Policy WE16, Oxford City Council, 2008) has been utilised in the distribution of property types.

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3.CONTEXT

3.4 HOTEL DEVELOPMENT In the West End Area Action Plan the Oxford City Council highlights the need for hotel accommodation on the site.There is an increase in demand for good quality hotels in Oxford and a variety of accommodation is required. As there are few mid-range accommodations in central Oxford and no quality branded hotels in the West End area, the opportunity exists for the design of a new high-end hotel scheme with permission provided by the city council.

The Oxpens site is a good location for a large hotel due to its proximity to the City Centre and its amenities. Its adjacency to the Oxford railways station, the provision of a good bus netwrok along the Oxpens Road and the connectivity to cities like London and Birmingham will boost the demand for hotels. In addition to answering to that demand, the development of a 4-5 star hotel could also act as a catalyst to revive this corner of the West End area. A possible new multi-functional conference space, providing accommodation for business travellers, as well as other visitors, may be incorporated alongside the hotel.

CONFERENCE FACILITY Oxford City Council have granted permission for a flexible conference facility on the Oxpens site to respond to the need for a conference space which has increased by 40% in recent years (Oxford City Council, 2008). As the existing facilities do not completely satisfy the demand and such a proposal is expected to attract major business to the west end area of Oxford, the provision of a new conference centre on site will be economically viable.

SUMMARY OF HOTEL ROOMS PROVISIONS TYPE OF ROOMS

CONFERENCE ROOM

SINGLE BED

DOUBLE BED

EXECUTIVE

AVERAGE SIZE (m2)

120

18

22

43

NUMBER OF UNITS

5

100

85

50

ROOM PRICE (£/day)

£1,000/day

£120/night

£140/night

£160/night

Table 003. Hotel Rooms Distibution

SALES VALUE FOR A HOTEL Based on market research of the average price of a room in other 5 star hotels in the city, an estimate price per night has been calculated for each room. As highlighted within the West End Area Action Plan, a demand exists for hotels in the area. In response to that, the masterplan scheme proposes to refurbish and extend the hotel currently located on the east end of Frideswide Square, as well as the construction of two new large hotels; one close to the train station and one on Oxpens Road, overlooking the sculpture park.

Using these prices, if all the rooms in the hotel were full it would total £31,900 a day.

In a year, this would total: £31,900 x 365 = £11,643,500 Based on a potential capacity of 60% throughout the entirety of the year: £11,643,500 x 0.6 = £6,986,100 This produces a monthly income of: £6,986,100 / 12 = £582,175 Per room this works out to be: £582,175 / 235 = £2,477 Average room size is 24m2 £2,477 / 24 = £103.20/m2 This is representative of the rent/m2 for the hotel.

The ground floor is equal to the room number x area 24m2 x 235 = 5,640m2

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3.CONTEXT

3.5 COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT Oxford City Council’s West End Area Action Plan highlights the necessity for commercial development in the west end area of Oxford.

This section of the report will propose a commercial development in the west end area that provides ‘good-quality modern office space’ whilst simultaneously meeting the criteria of the West End Area Action Plan. In order to achieve this, the commercial development will have to be in compliance with the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), which sets out a framework of planning policies for England. Moreover, it will follow the economic strategy depicted in the Oxfordshire Strategic Economic Plan to help drive economic growth through innovation. Successful completion of this project will help to recognise Oxfordshire as a vibrant, sustainable, inclusive, world leading economy, driven by innovation, enterprise and research excellence by 2030 (Oxfordshire Strategic Economic Plan, 2014)

OFFICES

Oxfordshire Strategic Economic Plan (2014) suggests that Oxfordshire has positioned itself to have “significant presence and potential in sectors that are poised for growth” making it one of the “best-performing and most innovative areas” in England to support the growth of the national economy.

The Masterplan is intended to attract visitors, employees and businesses in the West End Area of Oxford. The new attractions and facilities will strengthen and enrich Oxford’s attractiveness to both residents and visitors alike.

The following factors highlight the viability of the masterplan:

• Oxfordshire represents a major tourist destination generating £3.1 billion per year

• Businesses frequent Oxford due to its international reputation for scientific and academic excellence accompanied by

world class facilities

• The high quality of life presents the desire for investment from businesses

• Oxford is conveniently located being serviced by a good road and rail network facilitating easy access to the largest

cities in the UK; London and Birmingham, as well as major international airports (Oxfordshire Strategic Economic Plan, 2014) The location of commercial premises is influenced by the availability of employment sites as well as by the supply of labour through the local workforce. AECOM (2016) indicates that there is an increase of inbound commuters from outside the district. Between 2001 and 2011 the number of commuters has increased from 27,700 to 30,600, a rise of 10%.

AECOM (2016) also examines the necessity for new B1 office uses across Oxford, including the west end. The study advised that there is a need for approximately 15,000m2 of new B1 office floorspace in the area until 2021. The west end area offers an opportunity for development due to its lack of office accommodation. The proposed offices will not dominate the streets, most of them being placed on the upper floors. These will be let to businesses for research and development that will enhance the economic status of Oxford.

Oxford is subject to a high level of research and development as a result of two renowned universities. AECOM (2016) highlights that increased research and development results in a large number of start-ups companies. These start-ups companies require commercial spaces, thereby highlighting Oxford as an attractive area for this project. The planned commercial units are situated close to the research and development hubs being located near the college. Moreover, the location of these premises presents a good work / live balance.

RETAIL

OFFICES

RESTAURANT

RETAIL

PROPOSED FLOOR AREA

12,672.00 m2

2,040.00 m2

4,760.00 m2

CONSTRUCTION COST (£/m2)

£1,749.00/m2

£1,014.00/m2

£1,014.00/m2

TOTAL COST

Planning permission has been granted for the redevelopment of the Westgate Shopping Centre, which consists of an additional 34,000m2 of retail floor space. This will strengthen Oxford`s retail sector and will create new jobs on the market (AECOM, 2016).

According to the West End Area Action Plan there is a limit on additional convenience (food) shopping spaces. Hence, why the new masterplan will promote small companies to open boutique cafes and restaurants. These will serve to enhance the character of the area without detracting from the vitality and viability of the existing developments within the city centre.

The proposed new retail units would be most appropriate along the frontages of the major routes, especially along Oxpens Road, Hythe Bridge Street as well as Becket Street.

£25,185,600

£2,433,600

£5,678,400

Table 004. Summary of Commercial Construction Costs

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3.CONTEXT

3.6 CULTURE + LEISURE DEVELOPMENT INTRODUCTION One of the main aims outlined in the Oxford City Council’s West End Area Action Plan is the creation of a vibrant and diverse cultural community in the area. This has informed one of the central points of the design vision behind the masterplan proposal, subject in this report. The creation of a cultural which will strengthen the idea of Oxford as a leading creative and educational centre in the country.

This section of the report will examine the types of developments that will support this concept by dividing them in three subsections and investigating the economic feasibility of each one of them.

CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT According to the WEAAP, the opportunity exists for a private-sector backed cultural centre for science (Science Oxford) to be located on site. The design of the masterplan has taken this into account by providing a suitable space – dubbed as “Museum Quarter” – in place of Worcester Car Park, the construction of which will also be in line with the council’s policy WE24. Using the Spon’s Architects’ and Builders’ Price Book (2017) edition as point of reference, the estimated building cost for this type of establishment is £4,991,000.

Due to the nature of the function of this development, the report expects that the construction costs to be at least partly covered by the government and the aforementioned private investments.

The creation of a new gallery space in a central location within the development will further strengthen the idea of a cultural hub and diversify the cultural scene of the west end area. The estimated building cost is £2,010,000 with partial profit expected to be made through leasing the space for events. However, the main value of this development lies within the opportunities for generating interest in the area and attracting a higher number of visitors.

Further to that, the proposal takes into account the Oxford City Council’s desire to encourage people in creative professions to stay in the city by creating a number of artists’ studios along Osney Lane – the development cost of which is estimated to £855,600 (BCIS, 2016).

In addition to the proposed built form, the masterplan envisions at least two public open spaces – a sculpture park and the park adjacent to the museum – that can serve as exhibition spaces or places for street performances and activities and further contribute to the creation of a vibrant and diverse cultural area. No exact estimated cost have been included in the spreadsheet calculations, as they are considered as part of the total sum allocated to external works.

LEISURE DEVELOPMENT The Oxford City Council’s West End Area Action Plan highlights the necessity for redevelopment of the leisure facility currently existing on site (the ice rink) as the building is derelict and the function is no longer viable. The proposed masterplan addresses that by “sleeving” it with commercial units in order to generate more activity around it and thus generate more profit.

To expand on the Council’s desire to provide more future opportunities for a leisure use on site, the scheme proposes the creation of a new leisure centre in proximity to the Ice Rink, containing sports facilities of a quality satisfactory to the needs of both residents and visitors of the area. The estimated construction cost of such development is £9,856,810 (based on data presented in Spon’s AABPB 2017).

In addition to that the proposal aims to improve the gym currently incorporated into the Oxford and Cherwell Valley college and provide it with better facilities as part of the redevelopment. The building cost is estimated to £937,500 and is expected to be at least partly paid for by the college.

MUSEUM / SCIENCE OXFORD

GALLERY

ARTIST STUDIOS

LEISURE CENTRE

GYM

COLLEGE

PROPOSED FLOOR AREA

1283.40 m2

1080.00 m2

600.00 m2

3523.25 m2

425.00 m2

9605.00 m2

CONSTRUCTION COST (£/m2)

£3,500.00/m2

£1,675.00/m2

£1,476.00/m2

£2,378.00/m2

£1,875.00/m2

£1,600.00/m2

TOTAL COST

EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT According to the Oxford City Council’s West End Area Action Plan, the Oxford and Cherwell Valley College desires to redevelop their campus on site. The current pricing of such development is estimated at £18,989,000. While it is included in the final spreadsheet in order to create a more holistic vision of the financial feasibility of the West End Area site development, the construction fees are expected to be covered by the government and local council.

£4,991,000

£2,010,000

£885,600

£9,856,810

£937,500

£18,080,000

Table 005. Summary of Culture and Leisure Development Construction Costs

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4.FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS 4.1 FEASIBILITY SPREADSHEET SUMMARY

The first spreadsheet that was generated for the masterplan was compiled without fully taking into consideration the West End Area Action Plan (WEAAP), in particular the distribution of affordable homes for sale and rent. Within this spreadsheet, the split of housing was actually reversed so 80% of houses were designed for sale and only 20% for rent. Upon further inspection of the WEAAP, the decision was made to alter these figures and this was updated within the second spreadsheet to 80% socially rented and 20% shared ownership.

Additionally it was noted that all of our properties were oversized in comparison with market properties. By reviewing the technical housing standard manual a decision was made to reduce these houses in size, this led to a reduction in gross floor area, in turn reducing the total building cost of the units but maintaining the rough benchmark for the house prices. Furthermore, upon closer inspection of the WEAAP it was noted that the split of houses to flats in the scheme was disproportionate and actually needed adjusting. Therefore the move was made to change two of the blocks of flats and terraced houses into 3 and 4 bedroom houses to cater for this need. This increased the percentage of houses to 35% across the site.

Within the second spreadsheet, adjustments were made to include the refurbishment of the third hotel on the site to the east of Frideswide Square; this took hotel gross floor area to 18,800m2. It was recognised that when the residential area was reduced in the development due to the units being too large, there was additional space that could be utilised in the mixed-use blocks for commercial ventures. Office space was added to these areas and provides an additional function that increases floor area from 3,600m2 to 14,400m2, a figure close to what has been suggested within the WEAAP for office development on the site.

The college was also excluded from the original spreadsheet, however it has now been included to reflect construction costs. The council would most likely make a contribution towards it from government funding but as the developer would be providing such a large quantity of new housing, education would have to be addressed in relation to this.

In the final spreadsheet the cost of 5 bedroom houses was reassessed as it is very difficult to predict the cost of properties that rarely enter the market. On property websites such as zoopla, 5 bedroom+ size houses go for values up from £1.5 million but it is hard to guarantee these sorts of figures for a brand new development. Therefore the decision was made to place these properties on the market at £1 million to bring them in line with similarly sized 4 bedroom houses.

The addition of artist’s studios incorporated alongside the retail at ground floor level within the mixed-use blocks has enabled a greater level of activation. These artist’s studio have now been added to the spreadsheet as low rent workshop spaces that can remain flexible and be used as walk-in gallery spaces as well.

As a consequence of the alterations to the spreadsheet the land value has fluctuated but always remained above the £4.5 million per hectare target value.

16

Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

4.FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS RLV Spreadsheet

4.2 INITIAL SPREADSHEET A

B

1

Site Number: 0001

2

Site Address: West End Oxford

Modelling The Land Bid Budget C

D

NEW HOUSING DEVELOPMENT MIX

4

Market Homes for Sale

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 18

Studio 1 Bed Flat 2 Bed Flat 3 Bed Flat Penthouse 3 Bed Terrace 4 Bed Detached 4 Bed Townhouse

19

Total Market [Numbers]

20

% of Total Scheme

22

Affordable Homes for Sale [e.g. HomeBuy]

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 36

Studio 1 Bed Flat 2 Bed Flat 3 Bed Flat 3 Bed Terrace

37

Total Affordable Homes for Sale [Numbers] % of Total Scheme

41

Affordable or Social Homes for Rent

42 43 44 45 46 47

Studio 1 Bed Flat 2 Bed Flat 3 Bed Flat

I

J

L

M

Gross Floor

Building Costs

Total Affordable Homes for Rent [Numbers] % of Total Scheme

60 61 62 63 64

Market Rent Type A Market Rent Type B Market Rent Type C Market Rent Type D Market Rent Type E

65

Total Market Homes for Rent [Numbers]

Gross Development

£/unit

Costs [£]

/unit [£]

Value [£]

1409.0 1409.0 1409.0 1409.0 1409.0 1200.0 1320.0 1200.0

£77,495 £91,585 £105,675 £140,900 £147,945 £180,000 £316,800 £240,000 £0 £0

£2,402,345 £9,158,500 £14,266,125 £12,399,200 £5,178,075 £7,200,000 £3,484,800 £2,400,000 £0 £0

£225,000 £240,000 £255,000 £270,000 £450,000 £350,000 £700,000 £550,000

£6,975,000 £24,000,000 £34,425,000 £23,760,000 £15,750,000 £14,000,000 £7,700,000 £5,500,000 £0 £0

450 49.67%

1

Sub-Total

£56,489,045

Sub-Total

£132,110,000

41445.00 Building Costs

Total

Sale Price

Gross Development

Nos units

m²/unit

£/m²

£/unit

Costs [£]

/unit [£]

Value [£]

15 48 150 75 66

55 65 75 100 150.000

1409.0 1409.0 1409.0 1409.0 1200.0

£77,495 £91,585 £105,675 £140,900 £180,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

£1,162,425 £4,396,080 £15,851,250 £10,567,500 £11,880,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

£157,500 £168,000 £178,500 £189,000 £245,000

£2,362,500 £8,064,000 £26,775,000 £14,175,000 £16,170,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 Sub-Total

£67,546,500

39.07%

32595.00 Gross Floor m²/unit

Total

Weekly

Rents/m²

Initial Yield

Annual

Gross Development

Nos units

354

£/m²

1

£/unit

Sub-Total

Costs [£]

Rent(£)

[£]

%pa

Rent Flow [£]

Value [£]

15 27 30 30

55 65 75 100

1409.0 1409.0 1409.0 1409.0

£77,495 £91,585 £105,675 £140,900 £0 £0

£1,162,425 £2,472,795 £3,170,250 £4,227,000 £0 £0

£153.00 £177.00 £218.00 £226.00

133.5 130.7 139.5 108.5 0.0 0.0

7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00

110160.00 229392.00 313920.00 325440.00 0.00 0.00

£1,573,714 £3,277,029 £4,484,571 £4,649,143 £0 £0

£0 £0 £0 £0

£0 £0 £0 £0

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

£0 £0 £0 £0

102 11.26% Nos units

£43,857,255

Building Costs

1

Sub-Total

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

£978,912

£13,984,457

Total

Weekly

Rents/m²

Initial Yield

Annual

Gross Development

£/unit

£11,032,470

Costs [£]

Rent(£)

[£]

Sub-Total

%pa

Rent Flow [£]

Value [£]

£0 £0 £0 £0 £0

£0 £0 £0 £0 £0

0 0 0 0 0

£0 £0 £0 £0 £0

7830.00 Gross Floor

Market Homes for Rent

Sale Price

£/m²

55 65 75 100 105.000 150.000 240.000 200.000

58 59

Total

m²/unit

31 100 135 88 35 40 11 10

48 49 50 55 57

H

RESIDUAL LAND VALUATION MODEL

Gross Floor

56

G

Nos units

21

40

F

Author: Professor Stephen Walker ©

3

38

E

Building Costs

m²/unit

£/m²

0

Sub-Total

0.00%

0

906

81870.00

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

£0

Sub-Total

£0

£0

66

% of Total Scheme

67

Overall Total New Homes

68

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MIX

Gross Floor

Net Floor

Initial Yield

Annual

69

Business Uses

Space (m²)

Space (m²)

£

Costs [£]

[£]

%pa

Rental Flow [£]

Value [£]

70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80

Hotel 1 Hotel 2 Offices Retail Gallery Museum Gym Sports Centre Restaurant

10172 4860 3600 3554 200 1426 200 4145 457

9154.80 4374.00 3168.00 3020.90 180.00 1283.40 170.00 3523.25 388.45

£1,906.00 £1,906.00 £1,749.00 £1,014.00 £3,229.00 £1,612.00 £1,975.00 £2,378.00 £1,014.00

£19,387,832 £9,263,160 £6,296,400 £3,603,756 £645,800 £2,298,712 £395,000 £9,856,810 £463,398 £0 £0

£700.00 £700.00 £230.00 £350.00 £100.00 £100.00 £150.00 £150.00 £150.00

6.00 6.00 8.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00

6408360 3061800 728640 1057315 18000 128340 25500 528487.5 58267.5 0 0

£106,806,000 £51,030,000 £9,108,000 £15,104,500 £257,143 £1,833,429 £364,286 £7,549,821 £832,393 £0 £0

81

Total Business Uses

28614

Sub-Total

£12,014,710

£192,885,571

82

Overall Totals

£111,378,770 Costs/m²

25263

£213,640,957 Rents/m²

Total

Sub-Total

£52,210,868

Gross Development

£163,589,638

83 Preliminaries or Contingencies [e.g. 5%]

Specify %.>>>

5.0

£8,997,430

Specify %.>>>

10.0

£16,358,964

£406,526,529

84 85 External Works [unspecified - % sum [e.g. 20% of Build Costs] 86 87 Abnormal Costs

TOTAL EXTRA WORKS >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

£1,820,000

Efficiency Ratio

£1,500,000

Retail

88 Demolition Costs

Type as lump-sum >>>>>>>

89 Asbestos Survey

Type as lump-sum >>>>>>>

£20,000

90 Archaelogical Study

Type as lump-sum >>>>>>>

£300,000

91 92

CALCULATOR 0.85

NUMBER

Industrial

1.00

Plus %

Offices

0.88

Minus %

Type as lump-sum >>>>>>>

Housing

1.00

RESULT

Type as lump-sum >>>>>>>

Specify other…

0

93 94 Planning Obligations and Other Contributions 96 Community Infrastructure Levy [£] on Market Homes only 97 Community Infrastructure Levy [£] Offices 98 Community Infrastructure Levy [£] Retail 99 Community Infrastructure Levy [£] Industral/Warehousing

£0 £7,404,000

Legal fees [%] (site acquisition)

1.75

£20.00

£372,640

Legal fees [%] (sales of units)

1.75

£100.00

£518,000 £0

Selling Agents' fees [%] (housing) Selling Agents' fees [%] (business)

Professional fees [%] (architects...)

7.5

Building Costs Professional Fees

0.50 0.75

Marketing/Advertising fees [%]

£0

NHBC Fees

£770,100

Land Acquisition Legal Fees

1.00

Planning Fees [£]

£174,663

Estate Agents Fees

0.00

Stamp Duty Land Tax

1.00

103 104

Stamp Duty Land Tax [%]

105 Land

£675,000

<<< either

Marketing/Advertising Fees

<<< or

Planning/survey Fees

£10,674,265

Bank Intro Fee

2.00%

106 Total Site Area (m²)

161,029

Bank Exit Fee

2.00%

107 Total Site Area for Housing (m²)

82,450

Bank Monitoring Fee

108 Housing Density

109.88

PROFIT RATE

110 Project duration

Housing: Market Sector [% of Gross Development Value] 12.0

12.0

Housing: AH Sector [% of Gross Development Value]

5.660

112 Total building period (months)

30.0

30.0

Commercial Sector [% of Gross Development Value]

16.670

Housing: Market Sector [% on All Costs] 1.00

Obligations, Contributions & Other Levies

1.00 0.00 1.00

Conversion Table

Acres

1 Hectare 1 Acre

6.000

Commercial Sector [% on All Costs]

1 sq metre

10.763910 sq metres

117

House Price Change

0

1.00

Build Cost Change

0

1.00

118

120 121 122 123 124 125

0.404686 sq feet

20.005

116 Modelling Options

119

2.47105 Hectares

20.00

Housing: AH Sector [% on All Costs]

115

1.00

Legal Fees on Sales

16.670

111 Total development period (months) 113

1.00

NHBC Fees & Bank Fees

£25,000.00

109

114 Local Cost Adjustment

7.5

Finance Charge Weighting

1

Marketing/Advertising lump sum [£]

£0.0

Interest rate (%pa)

8

£0 £Rate/Unit

102 AH Financial Contribution in Lieu [£]

Financial Environment

Total Payable

£100.00

100 Community Infrastructure Levy [£] Others [combined] 101

Professional environment

£Rate/m²

95 Planning Obligation Contribution [£] [Combined]

CAPITAL PROFITS

1 sq foot

0.092903

£58,791,414

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------BUILDING COSTS & EXTERNAL WORKS

LAND COSTS [Gross]

Building Costs including Contingencies External Works Professional Fees SUB-TOTAL BUILDING COSTS & EXTERNAL WORKS Finance (interests on loans)

126 TOTAL BUILDING COSTS & EXTERNAL WORKS

£172,587,068 £16,358,964 £10,355,224 £199,301,256 £20,261,556

LAND + FINANCE + FEES Finance (interests on loans) LAND + FEES Legal Fees Stamp Duty Land Tax

£219,562,812

LAND BID BUDGET[£ lump sum] Land bid budget [£/m²]

127 128 EXTRA WORKS 129 Extra Works 130 Professional Fees

£490.57

Future Use Value

£2,090,512

133 134 FEES for MARKETING, PLANNING & LETTINGS 135 Marketing/Advertising 136 Selling Agents' fees [for housing]

£78,996,693

<<<< Insert Value

LAND BID /HECTARE [£]

£270,512

132 TOTAL EXTRA WORKS

>>>>>>>>>>>>

Existing Use Value of Development Site [Lump Sum]

£1,820,000 £0

131 Finance (interest on loans)

£98,083,214 £6,843,015 £91,240,199 £1,569,242 £10,674,265

£4,905,743

Existing Use Value

£0

Uplift Multiplier

0.00

£675,000 £1,996,565

137 Selling Agents' fees [business]

£0

138 Planning Fees

SCHEME SUMMARY: Average Cost Components [£/m²]

£174,663

139 NHBC Fees

£770,100

140 Bank Intro and Exit Fees plus Monitoring Fee

£7,655,641

141 Sales' Legal Fees

£7,114,214

142 Finance (interests on loans)

£6,000.0

£695,655

143 TOTAL FEES for MARKETING, PLANNING, SALES, etc

£19,081,839

144 145 PLANNING OBLIGATIONS & OTHER CONTRIBUTIONS 146 Planning Obligations

£0

147 Community Infrastructure Levy

£5,000.0

£8,294,640

148 Affordable Housing Contribution in Lieu

£0

149 Other Contributions

£0

150 Finance [interest on loans]

£718.1

£622,098

151 TOTAL OBLIGATIONS & CONTRIBUTIONS

£8,916,738

152 153 TOTAL SCHEME COSTS [including profit, excluding land]

£4,000.0

£308,443,314

154 155 GROSS DEVELOPMENT VALUE

£406,526,529

156 All Market Housing For Sale GDV

£132,110,000

157 All Market Housing For Rent GDV

£0

158 Affordable Housing [For Sale[Shared Equity] GDV

£3,000.0

£13,984,457

160 All Commercial Development Value

£101.3 £500.6

£67,546,500

159 All Affordable For Rent [GDV]

£350.5

£192,885,571

161 162

FINANCIAL SUMMARY

163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171

Land Bid Budget Building Costs, External Works & Extra Works All Professional Fees & SDLTax Planning Obligations & Other Contributions Interest Charges on Loans Capital Profits Gross Development Value (GDV) Capital Profits as a % on All Scheme Costs

172 173 174 175 176 177 178

Copyright: Professor Stephen Walker

£

% of GDV

Average £/unit

Average £/m²

£78,996,693 £190,766,032 £40,984,914 £8,294,640 £28,692,836 £58,791,414 £406,526,529

19.43 46.93 10.08 2.04 7.06 14.46 100.00

£87,193 £210,559 £45,237 £9,155 £31,670 £64,891 £448,705

£964.9 £2,330.1 £500.6 £101.3 £350.5 £718.1 £4,965.5

£2,000.0

£2,330.1

Capital Profits Interest Charges on Loans Planning Obligations & Other Contributions All Professional Fees & SDLTax Building Costs, External Works & Extra Works

£1,000.0

16.91%

£964.9 £0.0

1

Table 006. Initial Spreadsheet 23-10-16

17

Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

4.FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS 4.3 SECOND SPREADSHEET

RLV Spreadsheet

A 1 2

B

Modelling The Land Bid Budget

C

D

G

H

I

J

L

M

Author: Professor Stephen Walker ©

Site Address: West End Oxford NEW HOUSING DEVELOPMENT MIX Market Homes for Sale

4

F

RESIDUAL LAND VALUATION MODEL

Site Number: 0001

3

E

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 18

Studio 1 Bed Flat 2 Bed Flat 3 Bed Flat 3 Bed House 4 Bed House 5 Bed House

19

Total Market [Numbers]

20

% of Total Scheme

Nos units

Gross Floor m²/unit

£/m²

£/unit

Costs [£]

/unit [£]

Value [£]

30 43 114 40 41 41 41

40 50 60 75 85.000 100.000 120.000

1411.0 1411.0 1411.0 1411.0 1198.0 1321.0 1321.0

£56,440 £70,550 £84,660 £105,825 £101,830 £132,100 £158,520 £0 £0 £0

£1,693,200 £3,033,650 £9,651,240 £4,233,000 £4,175,030 £5,416,100 £6,499,320 £0 £0 £0

£200,000 £220,000 £350,000 £400,000 £430,000 £740,000 £1,500,000

£6,000,000 £9,460,000 £39,900,000 £16,000,000 £17,630,000 £30,340,000 £61,500,000 £0 £0 £0

350

Affordable Homes for Sale [e.g. HomeBuy]

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 36

Studio 1 Bed Flat 2 Bed Flat 3 Bed Flat 3 Bed House 4 Bed House 5 Bed House

37

Total Affordable Homes for Sale [Numbers]

Total

1

Sub-Total

50.00%

25695.00

Nos units

Gross Floor m²/unit

£/m²

£/unit

15 15 15 15 10 0 0

40 50 60 75 85.000 100.000 120.000

1411.0 1411.0 1411.0 1411.0 1198.0 1321.0 1321.0

£56,440 £70,550 £84,660 £105,825 £101,830 £132,100 £158,520 £0 £0 £0

21 22

Building Costs

Total Costs [£] £846,600 £1,058,250 £1,269,900 £1,587,375 £1,018,300 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

£180,830,000 Gross Development

/unit [£]

Value [£]

£140,000 £154,000 £245,000 £280,000 £301,000 £518,000 £1,050,000

£2,100,000 £2,310,000 £3,675,000 £4,200,000 £3,010,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 Sub-Total

£15,295,000

10.00%

4225.00 Gross Floor m²/unit

Total

Weekly

Rents/m²

Initial Yield

Annual

Gross Development

£/m²

£/unit

Costs [£]

Rent(£)

[£]

%pa

Rent Flow [£]

Value [£]

Studio 1 Bed Flat 2 Bed Flat 3 Bed Flat 3 Bed House 4 Bed House

15 28 99 25 61 52

40 50 60 75 85.000 100.000

1411.0 1411.0 1411.0 1411.0 1198.0 1321.0

£56,440 £70,550 £84,660 £105,825 £101,830 £132,100

£846,600 £1,975,400 £8,381,340 £2,645,625 £6,211,630 £6,869,200

£153.00 £177.00 £218.00 £226.00

183.6 169.9 174.4 144.6 0.0 0.0

7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00

110160.00 237888.00 1035936.00 271200.00 0.00 0.00

£1,573,714 £3,398,400 £14,799,086 £3,874,286 £0 £0

48 49 50 55

5 Bed House

0

120.000

1321.0

£158,520 £0 £0 £0

£0 £0 £0 £0

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

£0 £0 £0 £0

56

Total Affordable Homes for Rent [Numbers]

40 41

Affordable or Social Homes for Rent

42 43 44 45 46 47

% of Total Scheme

57 59

Market Homes for Rent

60 61 62 63 64

Market Rent Type A Market Rent Type B Market Rent Type C Market Rent Type D Market Rent Type E

65

Total Market Homes for Rent [Numbers]

1 20200.00 Gross Floor m²/unit

£5,780,425

Building Costs

280 40.00% Nos units

58

Sub-Total

Sub-Total Sale Price

Nos units

% of Total Scheme

38

1

Gross Development

£34,701,540

Building Costs

70

Sale Price

£1,655,184

£23,645,486

Total

Weekly

Rents/m²

Initial Yield

Annual

Gross Development

£/unit

Sub-Total

£26,929,795

Costs [£]

Rent(£)

[£]

%pa

Rent Flow [£]

Value [£]

£0 £0 £0 £0 £0

£0 £0 £0 £0 £0

0 0 0 0 0

£0 £0 £0 £0 £0

Building Costs £/m²

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sub-Total

£0

£0

66 67

% of Total Scheme Overall Total New Homes

68

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MIX

Gross Floor

Net Floor

Costs/m²

Total

Rents/m²

Initial Yield

Annual

Gross Development

69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80

Business Uses Hotel

Space (m²) 18800

Space (m²) 15980.00

£ £1,906.00

%pa 6.00

14400 5600 1200 1426 500 4145 2400 11300

12672.00 4760.00 1080.00 1283.40 425.00 3523.25 2040.00 9605.00

£1,749.00 £1,014.00 £1,675.00 £3,500.00 £1,875.00 £2,378.00 £1,014.00 £1,600.00

Costs [£] £35,832,800 £0 £25,185,600 £5,678,400 £2,010,000 £4,991,000 £937,500 £9,856,810 £2,433,600 £18,080,000 £0

[£] £700.00

Offices Retail Gallery Museum Gym Sports Centre Restaurant College

£230.00 £350.00 £100.00 £100.00 £150.00 £150.00 £150.00 £0.00

8.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 0.00

Rental Flow [£] 11186000 0 2914560 1666000 108000 128340 63750 528487.5 306000 0 0

Value [£] £186,433,333 £0 £36,432,000 £18,511,111 £1,200,000 £1,426,000 £910,714 £7,549,821 £4,371,429 £0 £0

81 82

Total Business Uses Overall Totals

59771

£16,901,138

£256,834,409 £476,604,894

0.00% 700

Sub-Total

Sub-Total

£0

0 50120.00

£67,411,760

51369

83 Preliminaries or Contingencies [e.g. 5%]

Sub-Total

Specify %.>>>

£219,770,486

£105,005,710 £172,417,470

5.0

Sub-Total

£10,345,048

84 85 External Works [unspecified - % sum [e.g. 20% of Build Costs]

Specify %.>>>

£34,483,494

20.0

86 87 Abnormal Costs

TOTAL EXTRA WORKS >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

88 Demolition Costs 89 Asbestos Survey 90 Archaelogical Study 91 92 93

Type Type Type Type Type

94 Planning Obligations and Other Contributions 95 Planning Obligation Contribution [£] [Combined] 96 Community Infrastructure Levy [£] on Market Homes only 97 Community Infrastructure Levy [£] Offices 98 99 100 101 102 103

Community Infrastructure Levy [£] Retail Community Infrastructure Levy [£] Industral/Warehousing Community Infrastructure Levy [£] Others [combined]

£Rate/m²

Total Payable

£100.00

£0 £2,992,000

£20.00

£664,000

£100.00

£822,600 £0 £0

£Rate/Unit £0.0

AH Financial Contribution in Lieu [£]

£0

as as as as as

lump-sum lump-sum lump-sum lump-sum lump-sum

>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>>

105 Land

Efficiency Ratio

£1,500,000 £20,000 £300,000

Retail Industrial Offices Housing Specify other…

Professional environment Professional fees [%] (architects...)

Legal fees [%] (site acquisition)

8 1.75

Legal fees [%] (sales of units)

1.75

Selling Agents' fees [%] (housing) Selling Agents' fees [%] (business) Marketing/Advertising fees [%] Marketing/Advertising lump sum [£] NHBC Fees Planning Fees [£]

161,029

Bank Exit Fee

107 Total Site Area for Housing (m²)

82,450

Bank Monitoring Fee

108 Housing Density

84.90

110 Project duration

£525,000

<<< either <<< or

£595,000 £198,747 £11,712,348

Stamp Duty Land Tax Obligations, Contributions & Other Levies

1.00

Legal Fees on Sales

0.00

NHBC Fees & Bank Fees

1.00

Housing: Market Sector [% of Gross Development Value]

16.670

Housing: AH Sector [% of Gross Development Value]

5.660

36.0

36.0

Commercial Sector [% of Gross Development Value]

16.670

Housing: Market Sector [% on All Costs]

113 1.00

119

0

1.00

126 TOTAL BUILDING COSTS & EXTERNAL WORKS

£256,523,504

LAND BID BUDGET[£ lump sum] Land bid budget [£/m²]

128 EXTRA WORKS 129 Extra Works 130 Professional Fees

>>>>>>>>>>>>

Future Use Value

£2,150,735

135 Marketing/Advertising Selling Agents' fees [for housing] Selling Agents' fees [business] Planning Fees NHBC Fees Bank Intro and Exit Fees plus Monitoring Fee Sales' Legal Fees Finance (interests on loans) TOTAL FEES for MARKETING, PLANNING, SALES, etc

145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152

PLANNING OBLIGATIONS & OTHER CONTRIBUTIONS

£1,961,250 £0 £198,747 £595,000 £8,787,640 £8,340,586 £1,572,807 £21,981,030

£0 £4,478,600 £0 £0 £696,982 £5,175,582

TOTAL OBLIGATIONS & CONTRIBUTIONS

All Affordable For Rent [GDV] All Commercial Development Value

FINANCIAL SUMMARY Land Bid Budget Building Costs, External Works & Extra Works All Professional Fees & SDLTax Planning Obligations & Other Contributions Interest Charges on Loans Capital Profits Gross Development Value (GDV) Capital Profits as a % on All Scheme Costs

£89.4 £894.0

£5,000.0

£

% of GDV

Average £/unit

Average £/m²

18.17 45.96 9.40 0.94 9.75 15.77 100.00

£123,728 £312,951 £64,010 £6,398 £66,402 £107,375 £680,864

£1,728.0 £4,370.8 £894.0 £89.4 £927.4 £1,499.7 £9,509.3

£4,000.0

Capital Profits Interest Charges on Loans

£6,000.0

£86,609,300 £219,066,012 £44,806,951 £4,478,600 £46,481,343 £75,162,688 £476,604,894

18.72%

£1,499.7

£927.4 £7,000.0

£476,604,894 £180,830,000 £0 £15,295,000 £23,645,486 £256,834,409

All Market Housing For Sale GDV All Market Housing For Rent GDV Affordable Housing [For Sale[Shared Equity] GDV

18Copyright: Professor Stephen Walker

0.00

£8,000.0

£360,993,539

GROSS DEVELOPMENT VALUE

177 178

£0

Uplift Multiplier

SCHEME SUMMARY: Average Cost Components [£/m²]

162

172 173 174 175 176

£5,378,491

Existing Use Value

£10,000.0

£9,000.0

Planning Obligations Community Infrastructure Levy Affordable Housing Contribution in Lieu Other Contributions Finance [interest on loans]

153 TOTAL SCHEME COSTS [including profit, excluding land] 154

171

<<<< Insert Value

£525,000

136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144

163

£86,609,300 £537.85

134 FEES for MARKETING, PLANNING & LETTINGS

170

0.092903

£115,611,355 £15,569,079 £100,042,276 £1,720,629 £11,712,348

133

169

1 sq foot

LAND BID /HECTARE [£]

£330,735

132 TOTAL EXTRA WORKS

168

sq metres

Existing Use Value of Development Site [Lump Sum]

£1,820,000 £0

131 Finance (interest on loans)

167

10.763910

LAND COSTS [Gross]

127

166

0.404686 sq feet

1 sq metre

£75,162,688

LAND + FINANCE + FEES Finance (interests on loans) LAND + FEES Legal Fees Stamp Duty Land Tax

165

1 Acre

20.005

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------£182,762,518 £34,483,494 £10,965,751 £228,211,763 £28,311,740

164

2.47105 Hectares

CAPITAL PROFITS

120 BUILDING COSTS & EXTERNAL WORKS 121 Building Costs including Contingencies 122 External Works 123 Professional Fees 124 SUB-TOTAL BUILDING COSTS & EXTERNAL WORKS 125 Finance (interests on loans)

155 156 157 158 159 160 161

Acres

1 Hectare

6.000

Commercial Sector [% on All Costs]

Build Cost Change

Conversion Table

20.00

Housing: AH Sector [% on All Costs]

115

118

1.00

2.00%

112 Total building period (months)

1.00

0.50 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00

2.00% £25,000.00

24.0

0

7.5

Building Costs Professional Fees Marketing/Advertising Fees Planning/survey Fees Land Acquisition Legal Fees Estate Agents Fees

24.0

House Price Change

7.5

Finance Charge Weighting

111 Total development period (months)

116 Modelling Options 117

0

PROFIT RATE

109

114 Local Cost Adjustment

NUMBER Plus % Minus % RESULT

Interest rate (%pa)

1

Bank Intro Fee

106 Total Site Area (m²)

CALCULATOR 0.85 1.00 0.88 1.00

Financial Environment

Stamp Duty Land Tax [%]

104

£1,820,000

£4,370.8

Planning Obligations & Other Contributions All Professional Fees & SDLTax Building Costs, External Works & Extra Works

£3,000.0

£2,000.0

£1,000.0

£0.0

£1,728.0

1

Table 007 Second Spreadsheet 07/11/2016

Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

4.FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS 4.4 FINAL SPREADSHEET

RLV Spreadsheet

A

B

1

Site Number: 0001

2

Site Address: West End Oxford

4

D

Modelling The Land Bid Budget

E

F

G

RESIDUAL LAND VALUATION MODEL

H

I

J

L

M

Author: Professor Stephen Walker ©

NEW HOUSING DEVELOPMENT MIX Market Homes for Sale

3

C

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 18

Studio 1 Bed Flat 2 Bed Flat 3 Bed Flat 3 Bed House 4 Bed House 5 Bed House

19

Total Market [Numbers]

20

% of Total Scheme

Nos units

Gross Floor m²/unit

£/m²

£/unit

Costs [£]

/unit [£]

Value [£]

30 43 114 40 62 41 20

40 50 60 75 85.000 100.000 120.000

1411.0 1411.0 1411.0 1411.0 1198.0 1321.0 1321.0

£56,440 £70,550 £84,660 £105,825 £101,830 £132,100 £158,520 £0 £0 £0

£1,693,200 £3,033,650 £9,651,240 £4,233,000 £6,313,460 £5,416,100 £3,170,400 £0 £0 £0

£200,000 £220,000 £350,000 £400,000 £430,000 £740,000 £1,000,000

£6,000,000 £9,460,000 £39,900,000 £16,000,000 £26,660,000 £30,340,000 £20,000,000 £0 £0 £0

350

Affordable Homes for Sale [e.g. HomeBuy]

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 36

Studio 1 Bed Flat 2 Bed Flat 3 Bed Flat 3 Bed House 4 Bed House 5 Bed House

37

Total Affordable Homes for Sale [Numbers]

Total

1

Sub-Total

50.00%

24960.00

Nos units

Gross Floor m²/unit

£/m²

£/unit

15 15 15 15 10 0 0

40 50 60 75 85.000 100.000 120.000

1411.0 1411.0 1411.0 1411.0 1198.0 1321.0 1321.0

£56,440 £70,550 £84,660 £105,825 £101,830 £132,100 £158,520 £0 £0 £0

21 22

Building Costs

Total Costs [£] £846,600 £1,058,250 £1,269,900 £1,587,375 £1,018,300 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0

£148,360,000 Gross Development

/unit [£]

Value [£]

£140,000 £154,000 £245,000 £280,000 £301,000 £518,000 £700,000

£2,100,000 £2,310,000 £3,675,000 £4,200,000 £3,010,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 Sub-Total

£15,295,000

10.00%

4225.00 Gross Floor m²/unit

Total

Weekly

Rents/m²

Initial Yield

Annual

Gross Development

£/m²

£/unit

Costs [£]

Rent(£)

[£]

%pa

Rent Flow [£]

Value [£]

Studio 1 Bed Flat 2 Bed Flat 3 Bed Flat 3 Bed House 4 Bed House

15 28 99 25 71 42

40 50 60 75 85.000 100.000

1411.0 1411.0 1411.0 1411.0 1198.0 1321.0

£56,440 £70,550 £84,660 £105,825 £101,830 £132,100

£846,600 £1,975,400 £8,381,340 £2,645,625 £7,229,930 £5,548,200

£180.00 £230.00 £288.00 £323.00 £350.00 £450.00

216.0 220.8 230.4 206.7 197.6 216.0

6.00 6.00 7.00 7.00 8.00 9.00

129600.00 309120.00 1368576.00 387600.00 1192800.00 907200.00

£2,160,000 £5,152,000 £19,551,086 £5,537,143 £14,910,000 £10,080,000

48 49 50 55

5 Bed House

0

120.000

1321.0

£158,520 £0 £0 £0

£0 £0 £0 £0

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

£0 £0 £0 £0

56

Total Affordable Homes for Rent [Numbers]

57

% of Total Scheme

40 41

Affordable or Social Homes for Rent

42 43 44 45 46 47

59

Market Homes for Rent

60 61 62 63 64

Market Rent Type A Market Rent Type B Market Rent Type C Market Rent Type D Market Rent Type E

65

Total Market Homes for Rent [Numbers]

1 20050.00

Nos units

Gross Floor m²/unit

£5,780,425

Building Costs

280 40.00%

58

Sub-Total

Sub-Total Sale Price

Nos units

% of Total Scheme

38

1

Gross Development

£33,511,050

Building Costs

70

Sale Price

Sub-Total

£26,627,095

Sub-Total

£4,294,896

£57,390,229

Total

Weekly

Rents/m²

Initial Yield

Annual

Gross Development

£/unit

Costs [£]

Rent(£)

[£]

%pa

Rent Flow [£]

Value [£]

£0 £0 £0 £0 £0

£0 £0 £0 £0 £0

0 0 0 0 0

£0 £0 £0 £0 £0

Building Costs £/m²

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0

Sub-Total

£0

£0

66 67

% of Total Scheme Overall Total New Homes

68

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MIX

Gross Floor

Net Floor

Costs/m²

Total

Rents/m²

Initial Yield

Annual

Gross Development

69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80

Business Uses Hotel Artist Studios Offices Retail Gallery Museum Gym Sports Centre Restaurant College

Space (m²) 18800 600 14400 5600 1200 1426 500 4145 2400 11300

Space (m²) 15980.00 600.00 12672.00 4760.00 1080.00 1283.40 425.00 3523.25 2040.00 9605.00

£ £1,906.00 £1,476.00 £1,749.00 £1,014.00 £1,675.00 £3,500.00 £1,875.00 £2,378.00 £1,014.00 £1,600.00

Costs [£] £35,832,800 £885,600 £25,185,600 £5,678,400 £2,010,000 £4,991,000 £937,500 £9,856,810 £2,433,600 £18,080,000 £0

[£] £700.00 £100.00 £230.00 £350.00 £100.00 £100.00 £150.00 £150.00 £150.00 £0.00

%pa 6.00 9.00 8.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 0.00

Rental Flow [£] 11186000 60000 2914560 1666000 108000 128340 63750 528487.5 306000 0 0

Value [£] £186,433,333 £666,667 £36,432,000 £18,511,111 £1,200,000 £1,426,000 £910,714 £7,549,821 £4,371,429 £0 £0

81 82

Total Business Uses Overall Totals

Sub-Total

£105,891,310 £171,809,880

Sub-Total

£16,961,138

£257,501,075 £478,546,304

0.00% 700

Sub-Total

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

£0

0 49235.00

£65,918,570

60371

51969

83 Preliminaries or Contingencies [e.g. 5%]

Specify %.>>>

5.0

£221,045,229

£10,308,593

84 85 External Works [unspecified - % sum [e.g. 20% of Build Costs]

Specify %.>>>

£34,361,976

20.0

86 87 Abnormal Costs

TOTAL EXTRA WORKS >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

88 Demolition Costs 89 Asbestos Survey 90 Archaelogical Study 91 92 93

£30m2 of GIA

94 Planning Obligations and Other Contributions 95 Planning Obligation Contribution [£] [Combined] 96 Community Infrastructure Levy [£] on Market Homes only 97 Community Infrastructure Levy [£] Offices 98 99 100 101 102 103

Community Infrastructure Levy [£] Retail Community Infrastructure Levy [£] Industral/Warehousing Community Infrastructure Levy [£] Others [combined]

Type Type Type Type Type £Rate/m²

Total Payable

£100.00

£0 £2,918,500

£20.00

£676,000

£100.00

£822,600 £0 £0

£Rate/Unit £0.0

AH Financial Contribution in Lieu [£]

£0

as as as as as

lump-sum lump-sum lump-sum lump-sum lump-sum

>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>>

105 Land

Efficiency Ratio

£1,500,000 £20,000 £300,000

Retail Industrial Offices Housing Specify other…

Professional environment Professional fees [%] (architects...)

Legal fees [%] (site acquisition)

8 1.75

Legal fees [%] (sales of units)

1.75

Selling Agents' fees [%] (housing) Selling Agents' fees [%] (business) Marketing/Advertising fees [%] Marketing/Advertising lump sum [£] NHBC Fees Planning Fees [£]

161,029

Bank Exit Fee

107 Total Site Area for Housing (m²)

82,450

Bank Monitoring Fee

108 Housing Density

84.90

110 Project duration

£525,000

<<< either <<< or

£595,000 £199,667 £12,389,289

Stamp Duty Land Tax Obligations, Contributions & Other Levies

1.00

Legal Fees on Sales

0.00

NHBC Fees & Bank Fees

1.00

Housing: Market Sector [% of Gross Development Value]

16.670

Housing: AH Sector [% of Gross Development Value]

5.660

36.0

36.0

Commercial Sector [% of Gross Development Value]

16.670

Housing: Market Sector [% on All Costs]

113 1.00

119

0

1.00

1 Acre 1 sq metre

126 TOTAL BUILDING COSTS & EXTERNAL WORKS

sq metres 1 sq foot

£255,619,528

LAND BID BUDGET[£ lump sum] Land bid budget [£/m²]

128 EXTRA WORKS 129 Extra Works 130 Professional Fees

>>>>>>>>>>>>

£568.68

Future Use Value

£2,150,735

133 134 FEES for MARKETING, PLANNING & LETTINGS 135 Marketing/Advertising

£91,573,536

<<<< Insert Value

LAND BID /HECTARE [£]

£330,735

132 TOTAL EXTRA WORKS

£122,244,525 £16,462,351 £105,782,174 £1,819,349 £12,389,289

Existing Use Value of Development Site [Lump Sum]

£1,820,000 £0

131 Finance (interest on loans)

£5,686,773

Existing Use Value

£0

Uplift Multiplier

0.00

£525,000

136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144

Selling Agents' fees [for housing] Selling Agents' fees [business] Planning Fees NHBC Fees Bank Intro and Exit Fees plus Monitoring Fee Sales' Legal Fees Finance (interests on loans) TOTAL FEES for MARKETING, PLANNING, SALES, etc

145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152

PLANNING OBLIGATIONS & OTHER CONTRIBUTIONS

£1,636,550 £0 £199,667 £595,000 £8,757,018 £8,374,560 £1,568,184 £21,655,979

Planning Obligations Community Infrastructure Levy Affordable Housing Contribution in Lieu Other Contributions Finance [interest on loans] TOTAL OBLIGATIONS & CONTRIBUTIONS

SCHEME SUMMARY: Average Cost Components [£/m²] £12,000.0

£0 £4,417,100 £0 £0 £687,411 £5,104,511

153 TOTAL SCHEME COSTS [including profit, excluding land] 154

£10,000.0 £1,457.7

£356,301,779

GROSS DEVELOPMENT VALUE

£8,000.0

£478,546,304 £148,360,000 £0 £15,295,000 £57,390,229 £257,501,075

All Market Housing For Sale GDV All Market Housing For Rent GDV Affordable Housing [For Sale[Shared Equity] GDV All Affordable For Rent [GDV] All Commercial Development Value

£959.9 £89.7 £918.5

£6,000.0

162

FINANCIAL SUMMARY

163

167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176

0.092903

LAND COSTS [Gross]

127

166

10.763910

£71,771,025

LAND + FINANCE + FEES Finance (interests on loans) LAND + FEES Legal Fees Stamp Duty Land Tax

165

0.404686 sq feet

20.005

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------£182,118,473 £34,361,976 £10,927,108 £227,407,557 £28,211,971

164

2.47105 Hectares

CAPITAL PROFITS

120 BUILDING COSTS & EXTERNAL WORKS 121 Building Costs including Contingencies 122 External Works 123 Professional Fees 124 SUB-TOTAL BUILDING COSTS & EXTERNAL WORKS 125 Finance (interests on loans)

155 156 157 158 159 160 161

Acres

1 Hectare

6.000

Commercial Sector [% on All Costs]

Build Cost Change

Conversion Table

20.00

Housing: AH Sector [% on All Costs]

115

118

1.00

2.00%

112 Total building period (months)

1.00

0.50 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00

2.00% £25,000.00

24.0

0

7.5

Building Costs Professional Fees Marketing/Advertising Fees Planning/survey Fees Land Acquisition Legal Fees Estate Agents Fees

24.0

House Price Change

7.5

Finance Charge Weighting

111 Total development period (months)

116 Modelling Options 117

0

PROFIT RATE

109

114 Local Cost Adjustment

NUMBER Plus % Minus % RESULT

Interest rate (%pa)

1

Bank Intro Fee

106 Total Site Area (m²)

CALCULATOR 0.85 1.00 0.88 1.00

Financial Environment

Stamp Duty Land Tax [%]

104

£1,820,000

Land Bid Budget Building Costs, External Works & Extra Works All Professional Fees & SDLTax Planning Obligations & Other Contributions Interest Charges on Loans Capital Profits Gross Development Value (GDV) Capital Profits as a % on All Scheme Costs

177 178

Copyright: Professor Stephen Walker

£

% of GDV

Average £/unit

Average £/m²

£91,573,536 £218,300,449 £45,223,542 £4,417,100 £47,260,653 £71,771,025 £478,546,304

19.14 45.62 9.45 0.92 9.88 15.00 100.00

£130,819 £311,858 £64,605 £6,310 £67,515 £102,530 £683,638

£1,859.9 £4,433.8 £918.5 £89.7 £959.9 £1,457.7 £9,719.6

17.64%

£4,000.0

£4,433.8

Capital Profits Interest Charges on Loans Planning Obligations & Other Contributions All Professional Fees & SDLTax Building Costs, External Works & Extra Works

£2,000.0 £1,859.9 £0.0

1

Table 008. Final Spreadsheet 07/11/2016

19

Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

4.FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS 4.5 PROJECT PHASING AND CASH FLOW

At the earliest stage of the project the developer will need to pay for planning fees and external works, as well as demolition of the existing structures located across the site. These fees will need to be paid before the development generates any income. Therefore the developer will need to borrow approximately ÂŁ11 million in order to cover these costs to get the project underway.These costs will then be recouped through the scheme.

In order to generate a sustainable development the project must be phased in a way that creates revenue from the first available opportunity. The hotel located next to the train station will be some of the first work to be completed and is a large revenue generator to feed into the scheme.

Housing located in the mixed-use blocks located along the Oxpens Road would also be built early in the development as not only does that include another hotel but the properties can be rented as well as sold within the scheme as social housing and market value homes. Additionally there is other commercial ventures such as artistâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s studios and retail at the ground level with an active frontage onto the Oxpens Road which once open will not only generate rent but also begin activating the neighbourhood and begin improving the footfall through the area as there would be reason for the residents to walk to the station or to the shopping centre etc.

Alongside the railway line, the market value 3, 4 and 5 bedrooms home can be built in their individual blocks. These properties will sustain the cash flow for the scheme as once one block is complete and sold it paves the way for the next block to be completed.

The generation of cash flow at this stage allows for the refurbishment of the ice rink and full integration of the retail and other commercial units surrounding it. The rent from these commercial units will also begin to fund the leisure centre and gym facilities for the local residents to utilise.

The last remaining costs towards the conclusion of the construction of the project is the final advertising of the scheme in order to sell the bulk of properties unless already sold off-plan as the development was taking place.

20

Table 009. Project Phasing and Cash Flow Spreadsheet

Copyright: Professor Stephen Walker

A

84.9

43.5

£125,000 £250,000

7.00%

0.00% 2.00%

Marketing/Advertising lump sum (£)

7.5 1 sq foot

1 sq metre

1 Acre

1 Hectare

0.00

42 Total GDV for Market Homes for Rent

0.092903

sq metres

10.763910

sq feet

0.404686

Hectares

DATA

£0

£57,390,229

£0

£57,390,229

£0 £63,405,821 10.00

0

£0

PLANNING OBLIGATIONS & OTHER CO

£0

£0

£0

1

£0

25.00

£805,793

£397,333

50.00

£0

£148,360

5.66%

16.67%

17.63%

91 Affordable Housing Sector Profit [% of Development Value]

92 Commercial Sector Profit [% of Development Value]

93 Profit as a % on All Costs

TOTAL INTEREST CHARGES

LAND COSTS

Land bid/m² [£]

Land Bid/Hectare [£]

114

115

Cash Flows [£]

£648.97 £6,489,697

17.63%

14.99%

Capital Profits as a % on All Scheme Costs

Capital Profits as a % oF GDV

129

128

127

Land Bid Budget Building Costs, External Works & Extra Works All Professional Fees & SDLTax Planning Obligations and Other Contributions Capital Profits Interest Charges + Bank Fees Gross Development Value (GDV)

10.00

5.00

15.00

10.00

20.00

40.00

2

£0

£1,726,835

£2,051,158

£728,000

2

£16,014,737

£2,662,710

£0

£1,156,085

£3,351,105

2

£38,205,428

£5,739,023

£0

£3,059,000

0

£190,531

1

£34,400

-£1,919,890

£8,748,213

1

£6,901,217

£0

25.00

£0

£0

£0

£22,514,983

2

£9,268,424

2

£0

£1,104,275

2

£1,082,190

£0

£0

£178,950

14.99%

17.63%

100.0

Average Cost Static Nominal Values Discounted Values Discounted [% Average £/unit £/m² [£] [£] of GDV] £149,290 £2,122.5 £107,528,305 £104,502,939 19.70 £377,887 £5,372.6 £219,401,185 £264,520,800 49.87 £68,129 £968.6 £44,560,994 £47,690,253 8.99 £6,310 £89.7 £4,417,100 £4,417,100 0.83 £113,571 £1,614.7 £71,304,562 £79,499,808 14.99 £42,566 £605.2 £28,535,937 £29,796,333 5.62 £757,753 £10,773.4 £475,748,083 £530,427,234 100.0

FINANCIAL SUMMARY

£104,502,939

£667.76

£118,655,328 £14,152,389

£18,788,886 £120,731,796 £2,076,468

£139,520,682

£390,906,552

£6,677,574

126

125

124

123

122

121

120

119

118

117

116

LAND BID BUDGET [£]

113

112 Stamp Duty Land Tax [SDLTax]

£25,000

£5,378,758

£5,378,758

£107,528,305

£19,333,274 £124,229,876 £2,136,632

£122,093,244 £14,564,939

110 Legal Fees

109 Land & Fees & SDLTax

111 Land + SDLTax

£143,563,151

£332,184,932

108 Finance (interests on loans)

107 Land & Finance & Fees

106

105

104

TOTAL COSTS [excl Land and its associated costs]

£4,476,366

£25,000

£4,476,366

102 Bank Exit Fee

103

101 Bank Intro Fee

100 Bank Monitoring Fee

99

-£10,443,171

£11,007,448

£79,499,808

-£10,633,703

£9,202,663

£71,304,562

£0

98 Cumulative debt with interest

FINANCIAL COSTS

£79,499,808

97 Cash flow

96

95

TOTAL PROFIT

16.67%

94

14.99%

90 Market Housing Sector Profit [% of Development Value]

£71,304,562

£0

0

0

£0

£397,333

50.00

£0

£0

£0

PROFIT

89 Profit as % of Total GDV

88 Capital Profit

87

10.00 15.00

10.00

20.00

15.00

20.00

10.00

5.00

20.00

15.00

20.00

£0

3

£1,726,835

£2,526,486

3

£21,352,982

£3,994,064

£0

£1,156,085

£3,351,105

3

£50,940,571

£8,608,534

£0

£3,059,000

£14,836,000

3

£0

25.00

£0

£0

£0

£29,038,320

3

£11,607,231

3

£0

£1,104,275

3

£1,355,272

£0

£0

£178,950

10.00

86

84

10.00 20.00

£14,836,000

2

£52,500

£0

£0

£4,417,100

£0

£0

£4,417,100

1.1465

1.0741

1.0000

3

25.00

1

£8,634,174

£0

£4,417,100

£0

£0

£4,417,100

1.0954

1.0488

1.0000

2

£131,250

0

£8,634,174

£2,069,638

£546,000

30.00

85

£71,304,562

£0

£0

£11,281,808

£8,325,591

£794,667

£0

£1,636,550

£525,000

£0

£284,700,388

£734,414

£546,000

30.00

£1,104,275

TOTAL

£0

£4,417,100

£11,281,808

£8,325,591

£794,667

£0

£1,636,550

£525,000

£0

£235,978,799

£20,179,588

£264,520,800

£1,914,947

£0

83

82 Other Contributions

81 Affordable Housing Contribution in Lieu

80 Community Infrastructure Levy

79 Planning Obligations

78

£0

£794,667

£8,325,591

77

TOTAL

75 Legal Fees on Sales

76

74 Planning Fees+NHBC

73 Selling/letting fees (business)

no units

0.00%

£525,000

£1,636,550

rate

or >>>>>>>>

72 Selling Agents' fees (housing)

71

70 Advertising lump sum

either >>>>>>>>

FEES FOR MARKETING, SELLING AGENTS & PLANNING

TOTAL

69 Advertising as a %

68

67

66

£16,577,614

65 Professional Fees

£1,820,000

£219,401,185

£1,820,000

64 SUB-TOTAL BUILDING COSTS

63 Abnormal Costs and Extra Works

£0

1

£2,662,710 £10,676,491

£0

£0

£10,361,009

£0

£10,361,009

£0

£10,361,009

£0

62

61

60 Preliminaries, including Contingency

5.00%

58

59

£3,351,105

£40,375,964

10.00 10.00 £0

£34,536,696

£32,265,127 £130,535,760

10.00

57

56 External Works

£26,627,095

£106,764,910

£0

£6,950,930

£42,117,065

25.00

£34,536,696

55 Total Building Costs for for Business Uses

£0

£5,780,425

£33,511,050

£0

1

£5,739,023 £25,470,285

£0

25.00

£26,627,095

£106,764,910

54 Total Building Costs for Affordable Homes for Rent

Rate of BC & Ext

£5,780,425

£0

£33,511,050

53 Total Building Costs for Market Homes for Rent

52 Total Building Cost for Affordable Homes for Sale

BUILDING COSTS

51 Total Building Costs for Market Homes for Sale

50

49

TOTAL

£0

10.00

£0

0

Year 1 10.00

47

£530,427,234

£282,569,768

1

£0

£475,748,083

£254,702,854

0

£0

£16,798,518

£254,702,854

£16,834,054

£167,617,591

Values

£15,295,000

£148,360,000

Values

46

49235.0

51968.65

£15,295,000

£148,360,000

£14,836,000

48

-£15,000,000

-£10,000,000

-£5,000,000

£0

£5,000,000

£10,000,000

1

2

M

1.2000

1.1000

1.0000

4

1.2560

1.1265

1.0000

5

1.3145

1.1537

1.0000

6

10.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

10.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

£0

£0

£0

25.00

£0

£0.0

£2,000.0

£4,000.0

£6,000.0

£8,000.0

£10,000.0

£12,000.0

£0

£0

£19,414,332

4

£7,789,775

4

£0

£1,104,275

4

£909,542

£0

£0

£178,950

4

£1,726,835

£1,672,366

4

£10,676,491

£3,994,064

£0

£1,156,085

£3,351,105

4

£25,470,285

£8,608,534

£0

£3,059,000

£14,836,000

4

3

10.00

20.00

15.00

5.00

10.00

20.00

20.00

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

15.00

30.00

15.00

5.00

15.00

30.00

20.00

£0

15.00 £78,750

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£32,424,767

6

£12,100,541

6

6

£1,412,871

£0

£0

£253,130

6

£1,726,835

£2,552,995

6

£16,014,737

£7,988,129

£0

£1,156,085

£5,026,658

6

£38,205,428

£17,217,069

£0

£3,059,000

GDV £/m²

£0

£0

£25,762,567

5

£9,331,655

5

5

£1,089,573

£0

£0

£253,130

5

£1,726,835

£1,912,919

5

£10,676,491

£5,325,419

£0

£1,156,085

£5,026,658

5

£25,470,285

£11,478,046

£0

£3,059,000

15.00 20.00

£22,254,000

6

£10,773.4

Year 2 15.00 20.00

£22,254,000

5

ENTER % of DEVELOPMENT CONTENT BY QUARTERS [i.e. 3months].…

1.0466

1.0241

1.0000

1

£0

45 Total Annual Rental Flow for Business Uses [Capitalised]

44 Total GDV for Business Uses

280.00

70.00

43 Total GDV for Affordable Housing for Rent

350.00

Content of Development

41 Total GDV for Affordable Homes for Sale

GROSS DEVELOPMENT VALUE [GDV]

40 Total GDV for Market Homes for Sale

39

38

Cash Flow

1.0000

37

Discounted

Inflation/Deflation Factor Cost-side

20

35 Inflation/Deflation Rate (% pa) Cost-side

[Undiscounted]

1.0000

Static Nominal

1.0000

Discount Factor

Inflation/Deflation Factor Demand-side

0

10

34 Inflation/Delation Rate (% pa) Demand-side

0

33 Annual Rate of Discount (%pa)

36

Acres 2.471052

£1,500,001

£1,500,000

F108

£15,000,000

7.00%

£20,000,000 E108

7.00%

0.00%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Discounted

L

7.00% £25,000,000

7.00%

£30,000,000 0.00%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

£35,000,000

Nominal

K

N

4

5

O

10.00

10.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

£0

20.00

£0

£0

£0

£0

10.00

10.00

20.00

10.00

15.00

£0

15.00

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£8,913,430

8

£6,041,059

8

8

£705,360

£0

£0

£148,360

£78,750

8

£6,907,339

£1,808,839

8

£10,676,491

£0

£0

£0

£5,026,658

8

£25,470,285

£0

£0

£0

£14,836,000

8

1.4400

1.2100

1.0000

8

6

1.5072

1.2392

Year 3 10.00

£0 £0

£78,750

15.00

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£12,125,658

9

£2,223,602

9

9

£259,630

£0

£0

£148,360

9

9

9

£0

£14,836,000

9

7

Q

8

S

9

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

1.5774

1.2691

1.0000

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

1.6510

1.2997

1.0000

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

1.7280

1.3310

1.0000

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

11

CASH FLOW [£]

R

Quarter Periods [i.e. 3 months]

1.0000

9

P

13

T

£605.2

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

Year 4

12

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

1.8929

1.3960

1.0000

14

U

Average Cost £/m²

£2,122.5

£5,372.6

£968.6

£89.7

£1,614.7

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

1.8086

1.3631

1.0000

SCHEME SUMMARY: Average Cost Components [£/m²]

£0

£0

£14,482,125

7

£6,041,059

7

7

£705,360

£0

£0

£148,360

£105,000

7

£1,726,835

£1,394,399

7

£10,676,491

£0

£0

£0

£5,026,658

7

£25,470,285

£0

£0

£0

£14,836,000

7

1.3758

1.1815

1.0000

7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

32 MODELLING INPUTS

31

30

29 Interest rate (% pa)

28 Financial Environment

27

1.00

82,450

25 Housing Land Area [m2]

26 Local Cost Ajustment Factor

161,029

24 Total Land (m2)

23 Site Area in m2

22

8.0

12.0 Conversion

12.00% 0

10.00%

21 Building (months)

No. Quarter Years

NUMBER

24.0

36.0

20 Total (months)

17 Profit as % of Turnover [or GDV] Minus %

5.00%

Plus %

14.99%

or >>>>>

% CALCULATOR

£595,000

19 Project duration

17.63%

£525,000 £199,667 £14,564,939

18

16 Profit as % on Costs

either >>>>>

51969

14 Business Total in m2 (net)

15 Target rate of Profit

NHBC Fees

Planning Fees [£]

Stamp Duty Land Tax [%]

£925,000

£2,000,001 £2,000,000

5.00%

Marketing/Advertising (%)

8 1.75 1.75 1 0

£14,152,389

£125,001 £250,001 £500,001 £1,000,001

Professional environment

Legal fees % (site acquisition) Legal Fees for Sales (%) Selling Agents'/Letting Agents' fees % (housing) Selling Agents'/Letting Agents' fees % (business)

Professional fees % (architects)

60371

49235.0

SDLTax Thresholds

0.00% 1.00% 3.00% 4.00%

H

SDLTax

G

J

F

I

E

Author: Professor Stephen Walker ©

13 Business Total in m2 (gross)

50.00% 0.00% 10.00% 40.00%

100.0%

D

DISCOUNTED-CASH-FLOW RESIDUAL LAND VALUATION MODEL

12 Total Commercial

11 Total Housing Floorspace Area [m²]

9 Net Housing Density [NDPH]

350 0 70 280

10 Gross Housing Density [GDPH]

700

C

5 Market Homes for Sale (units) 6 Market Homes for Rent (units) 7 Affordable Homes for Sale (units) 8 Affordable Homes for Rent (units)

B

4 Total Number of New Homes

3 The Project

2 Site Address: West End Oxford

1 Site Number: 0001

£

DCFRLV Spreadsheet

13

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

2.0736

1.4641

1.0000

16

15

W

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

16

17

17

17

17

17

17

17

2.1703

1.4994

1.0000

17

X

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

Year 5

17

18

18

18

18

18

18

18

2.2715

1.5356

1.0000

18

Y

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

18

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

2.3774

1.5726

Land Bid Budget

Building Costs, External Works & Extra Works

All Professional Fees & SDLTax

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

19

1.0000

19

Z

Capital Profits Planning Obligations and Other Contributions

Interest Charges + Bank Fees

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

1.9812

1.4296

1.0000

15

14

V

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

2.4883

1.6105

1.0000

20

20

AA

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

2.6044

1.6493

1.0000

21

21

AB

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

Year 6

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

2.7258

1.6891

1.0000

22

22

AC

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

23

23

23

23

23

23

23

23

2.8529

1.7298

1.0000

23

AD

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

2.9860

1.7716

1.0000

24

AE

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

25

Totals

Totals

0.00

0.00

100.00

0.00

Totals

100.00

100.00

0.00

Totals

100.00

Totals

100.00

100.00

100.00

0.00

100.00

100.00

Totals

100.00

100.00

0.00

100.00

100.00

% Total

Totals

AF

Modelling The Land Bid Budget with a Cash Flow

4.FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS 4.5 PROJECT PHASING AND CASH FLOW 11/11/2016

Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

21

Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

5.CONCLUSION

REFLECTIVE STATEMENT The spreadsheet model that has been used as the basis of this economic feasibility study has informed new guidlines that allowed the modification and further development of the scheme presented in Studio I to achieve the best for the developer and end user. While architects tend to design aesthetically pleasing and functional spaces and buildings without the consideration of practical issues such as the demand for a certain type of building or the development potential in regards of its profitability, the main drive behind this scheme has provided the opportunity to explore a different approach towards design, that of an urban designer.

The understanding of Council Planning Policies and the construction costs for different developments are a necessary knowledge for urban designers to achieve a feasible proposal in both pragmatic and economic ways. For instance, the calculation of the construction cost of a mixed used block, like the ones along Oxpens Road, with the consideration of the density of users and the strive towards a predetermined target land value, allows us to understand that designers need to compromise on the conceptual intention in order to achieve their project vision, while maintaining a balance between profitable land uses - like hotels and high street retails - and less-profitable ones - like affordable housing and leisure centres.

The use of the spreadsheet model has given us a clearer image of how a development can be considered in a more practical way. It has helped the group to create a better rounded understanding of urban design which is not only about block forms and open spaces but also about fitting in different social strata through policies and cost management.

INDIVIDUAL TARGET LAND VALUE

Stefania Ioana Stan AREA: 1.6 Ha

TLV: £8,828,651

Alec Parcell AREA: 1.8 Ha

TLV: £9,932,232

Wai (Fiona) Wong AREA: 1.5 Ha

TLV: £8,276,860

Rakesh Mutha AREA: 1.9 Ha

TLV: £10,484,023

Petya Tsokova AREA: 2.3 Ha

TLV: £12,691,186

Sarju Patel AREA: 2.6 Ha

TLV: £14,346,558

Figure 006. Individual Target Land Value

23

Economic Feasibility Report / Urban Design Group D

6.REFERENCES ILLUSTRATION + GRAPHS

All images by Urban Design Studio 1 Group D (2016) TABLES All tables by Urban Design Studio 1 Group D unless otherwise specified (2016) Spreadsheet model by Professor Stephen Walker BIBLIOGRAPHY AECOM (2016) Oxford City Employment Land Assessment 2016. Oxford: Oxford City Council. (Online) Available at: https://www.oxford.gov.uk/download/downloads/id/2989/employment_land_assessment_october_2016.pdf (Accessed: 06 NOV 2016) AECOM (eds) (2017) Spon’s Architects’ and Builders’ Price Book (142nd ed). Abingdon: CRC Press.

Booking.com (2016) (Online) Available at: http://www.booking.com (Accessed: 08 NOV 2016) Carter Jonas LLP (2016) Commercial Edge - Oxfordshire. Oxford: Carter Jonas LLP. (Online) Available at: http://www.carterjonas.co.uk/~/media/Files/WEB%20-%20 Commercial%20Edge%20-%20OXFORD%20-%202016.ashx (Accessed: 03 NOV 2016) Department for Communities and Local Government (2015) Land Value Estimates for Policy Appraisal. London: Department for Communities and Local Government. (Online) Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/488041/Land_values_2015.pdf (Accessed: 06 NOV 2016) Department for Communities and Local Government (2015) Technical Housing Standards - Nationally Described Space Standard. London: Department for Communities and Local Government. (Online) Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524531/160519_Nationally_Described_Space_Standard____Final_Web_version.pdf (Accessed: 05 NOV 2016) Gehl, J. (2010) Cities for People. Washington, DC: Island Press.

HomeCo IP Ltd (2016) Home.co.uk (Online) Avaiable at: http://www.home.co.uk/ (Accessed: 05 NOV 2016) Hudson, N, (2015) The Value of Land. London: Savills. (Online) Available at: http://pdf.savills.com/documents/2015-06-04ValueofLand.pdf?_ga=1.74483602.16617190 0.1478706119 (Accessed: 07 NOV 2016) Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. (2013) Oxford City Council: Updated Viability Evidence Report.. Community Infrastructure Levy Assessment. London: Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. (Online) Available at: https://consultation.oxford.gov.uk/gf2.ti/f/343138/8945605.1/PDF/-/CIL_Nonresidential_Assessment.pdf (Accessed: 06 NOV 2016) Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. (2016) Land & Development. London: Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. (Online) Available at: http://residential.jll.co.uk/~/media/Residential/publications/pdfs/jll-london-land-brochure-2016.ashx?la=en-GB (Accessed: 05 NOV 2016) Knight Frank LLP (2016) Oxford Market Insight 2016. London: Knight Frank LLP. (Online) Available at: http://content.knightfrank.com/research/786/documents/en/ q1-2016-3478.pdf (Accessed: 07 NOV 2016) Lllewyn-Davies Planning, English Partnerships, Alan Baxter & Associates, Housing Corporation (2000). Urban Design Compendium. London: English Partnerships.

Oxford Brookes University (2016) Urban Design Studio 1 Brief: Connecting and Retrofitting West Oxford. Oxford: Oxford Brookes University.

Oxford City Council (2005) Oxford Local Plan 2001-2016. Oxford: Oxford City Council. (Online) Available at: https://www.oxford.gov.uk/downloads/download/414/oxford_local_plan_2001_-_2016 (Accessed: 12 OCT 2016) Oxford City Council (2008) West End Area Action Plan Volume 1 - Main Document. Oxford: Oxford City Council. (Online) Available at: https://www.oxford.gov.uk/ download/downloads/id/1435/west_end_aap_volume_1_-_main_document.pdf (Accessed: 01 OCT 2016) Oxford City Council (2008) West End Area Action Plan Volume 2 - Appendices. Oxford: Oxford City Council. (Online) Available at: https://www.oxford.gov.uk/ download/downloads/id/1434/west_end_aap_volume_2_-_appendices.pdf (Accessed: 01 OCT 2016) Oxford City Council (2013) Oxpens Oxford West End Master Plan SPD. Oxford: Oxford City Council. (Online) Available at: https://www.oxford.gov.uk/download/ downloads/id/592/oxpens_masterplan_spd.pdf (Accessed: 01 OCT 2016) Rightmove (2016) (Online) Available at: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/ (Accessed: 06 NOV 2016) Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (2016) Building Cost and Information Services (BCIS). (Online) Available at: http://service.bcis.co.uk.oxfordbrookes.idm. oclc.org/BCISOnline/ (Accessed: 05 NOV 2016) Savills PLC (2016) Residential Property Focus 2016 Q4. London: Savills PLC. (Online) Available at: http://pdf.euro.savills.co.uk/uk/residential-property-focus-uk/ residential-property-focus-q4-2016.pdf (Accessed: 07 NOV 2016) Zoopla (2016) (Online) Available at: http://www.zoopla.co.uk/ (Accessed: 06 NOV 2016)

25