DON’T BET WITH ChatGPT – STUDY SHOWS LANGUAGE AIs OFTEN MAKE IRRATIONAL DECISIONS

he past few years have seen an explosion of progress in large language model artificial intelligence systems that can do things like write poetry, conduct humanlike conversations and pass medical school exams. This progress has yielded models like ChatGPT that could have major social and economic ramifications ranging from job displacements and increased misinformation to massive productivity boosts.

Despite their impressive abilities, large language models don’t actually think. They tend to make elementary mistakes and even make things up. However, because they generate fluent language, people tend to respond to them as though they do think. This has led researchers to study the models’ “cognitive” abilities and biases, work that has grown in importance now that large language models are widely accessible.

WORDS AND THOUGHTS

Inspired by the growing body of research in BERTology and related fields like cognitive science, my student Zhisheng Tang and I set out to answer a seemingly simple question about large language models: Are they rational?

MAKING A BET

So are language models rational? Can they understand expected gain? We conducted a detailed set of experiments to show that, in their original form, models like BERT behave randomly when presented with betlike choices. This is the case even when we give it a trick question like: If you toss a coin and it comes up heads, you win a diamond; if it comes up tails, you lose a car. Which would you take? The correct answer is heads,

THIS LINE OF RESEARCH DATES BACK TO EARLY LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS SUCH AS GOOGLE’S BERT, WHICH IS INTEGRATED INTO ITS SEARCH ENGINE AND SO HAS BEEN COINED BERTOLOGY. THIS RESEARCH HAS ALREADY REVEALED A LOT ABOUT WHAT SUCH MODELS CAN DO AND WHERE THEY GO WRONG

While you’re checking on all the above, have a re look at how the interests of existing customers are taken care of. Obviously, thinking of this magnitude deserves a well worked out business map, a matured vision and real goal-setting alongside precision decision-making skills. Only if the above conditions are satisfied, mindful scaling becomes a success and disruptions a forgotten failure. In the race to remain a few steps ahead of all disruptions, senior managers have to consider three questions. firstly, what types of innovation are truly disruptive? Secondly, is low cost the only basis for upending established business models? And lastly, is it only outside forces that are culpable of disruptions? Academicians may disagree about how practice fits theory when the influence and devastation of disruption is discussed, but business leaders across sectors need to be keenly aware that established models are under a continuous threat from technology oriented disruptions. Therefore, in my personal opinion, self-created disruptions in our policies, procedures and market evaluation may keep us ahead of competitors.

We must remember that adapting to disruption requires a management outlook that embraces rather than resists. It is clear from the experience of past two decades of rapid business changes, that even established business houses collapse and crumble if their leaders fail in being a visionary, strong character person and poses the required traits to lead their organisation when a crisis knocks at their door. The three cardinal principles to keep our heads above water are leadership, Company culture & customers.

Top Tweets

I bow down to the author of the national song ‘Vande Mataram’, poet, novelist and writer Bankim Chandra Chatterjee on his death anniversary. The light that you awakened for India’s independence through literature became the inspiration of the Indian freedom struggle. You will always remain an inspiration of patriotism.

Anurag Thakur @ianuragthakur but the AI models chose tails about half the time.

PM @narendramodi ji is in Hyderabad to inaugurate projects worth `11,300 Cr for people of Telangana. CM KC Rao avoided & skipped PM’s visit. It proves development is not on CM’s agenda.Kind of political madness & vendetta KCR has been showing,his undignified act doesn’t surprise.

RIGHT DECISION

This line of study is important because rational decisionmaking under conditions of uncertainty is critical to building systems that understand costs and benefits. By balanc- ing expected costs and benefits, an intelligent system might have been able to do better than humans at planning around the supply chain disruptions the world experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, managing inventory or serving as a financial adviser.

SOURCE: THE CONVERSATION

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Bigger the ego, the smaller the mind. Bhagavad Gita