Expert predicts tough election fight for Tories

SOUTH Gloucestershire Council's ruling Conservatives face a serious fight to stay in power in this year's local elections, a polling expert predicts.

Independent statistician Nigel Marriott, who is credited with making the most accurate forecast for the last General Election, says the district bucked the national trend in the last local authority elections four years ago - but may not this time.

In 2019 the Tories retained overall control in South Gloucestershire, in contrast to nearby North Somerset and Bath & North East Somerset, where the party lost power to an independent-led coalition and the Liberal Democrats respectively, with the unpopular government of Theresa May blamed.

Mr Marriott, of Bath, has crunched the numbers on how residents in each of the four unitary authority areas in the region have voted at local, general and EU elections since

New ID rules

2009.

He says there are some striking similarities between South Gloucestershire and North Somerset in particular, as well as crucial differences.

Mr Marriott says the outcome this year depends on whether South Gloucestershire is once again apparently immune from national trends, as happened in 2019, or if that result was a one-off.

He said: “South Glos and North Somerset are similar politically, with Tories dominant and having grown their vote share notably since 2009.

“The vote shares are practically identical for South Glos and North Somerset.

“One difference is that North Somerset has been more open to independents, so the advance of independents in 2019 at Tory expense was not completely unexpected.

“South Glos has no history of independents or even minor parties, other than in EU elections.

VOTERS in South Gloucestershire will need to show an accepted form of identification at upcoming council elections.

Recent changes to the law mean people unable to show ID such as a driving licence, passport at polling stations could be barred from voting in the elections on May 4.

People who do not have an accepted form of ID will be able to apply online or by submitting a paper form to their council for a free ID card — although details of how to do this had yet to be confirmed as the Voice went to press.

“It is a solid three-party council and, unless something else is happening on the ground, I think you have to expect it to remain like that at the next election.”

Nationally, the Conservatives are polling at similar levels to May 2019, at around 25%.

Mr Marriott said it was hard to predict whether the Lib Dems or Labour – the second and third biggest party groups respectively – would benefit most in South Gloucestershire.

In May 2019 Labour was polling around 24% nationally, with the Brexit Party on 18%, Lib Dems on 16% and Greens on 7%. The first national YouGov poll of 2023, however, put Labour on 46%, with the Lib Dems on 9%, Greens on 6% and Reform UK on 7%.

Mr Marriott said: "The Tory vote in 2019 in South Glos was very resilient.

"Given the Tories are polling the same level again today as May 2019, if they are still polling 25 per cent come May 2023 then

But opposition politicians have raised questions about the new rules, particularly over which forms of ID will be accepted.

Liberal Democrat group leader Claire Young told a council meeting in December that it was "outrageous ageism" that photo travel passes for older people are set to be accepted as ID but those for younger people aren’t.

She called on the council to commit to ensuring free ID was available in good time for the local elections.

The Electoral Commission says research shows people less likely to have an accepted form of ID include those over 85 and people with disabilities.

But council leaders said a recent pilot

Nigel Marriott

that points to an unchanged Tory vote in the election.

“The question for South Gloucestershire, though, is whether 2019 was the anomaly that corrects itself in 2023 –ie, big losses – or 2019 is the baseline, in which case they could be unchanged.”

The perils of forecasting individual elections are clear

- Mr Marriott predicted the Conservatives would win the 2021 Metro Mayor election, which was won by Labour.

Mr Marriott’s blog can be found online at marriott-stats. com/nigels-blog/

By Adam Postans, Local Democracy Reporting Service

scheme showed that most people have “an acceptable form of voting”.

Conservative cabinet member Ben Burton said: "The most important thing to ensure is that the democratic process is well run and the people who can vote are able to vote. I have every confidence in the democratic services team, with their experience of elections, to get the message out there in terms of what people can vote with, how they can vote, and to ensure that the electoral process goes smoothly."

The deadline to register to vote for the next local elections is April 17.

By Alex Seabrook, Local Democracy Reporting Service