Issue no: 1335
• FEBRUARY 18 - 24, 2022 • PUBLISHED WEEKLY
FOCUS ON SETTING TRENDS ON THE RE MARKET York Towers' New CEO Khaled Osama talks innovation and creating market demand
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In this week’s issue... Corona Updates: Omicron Strain Enters Downward Phase in Georgia NEWS PAGE 2
PAGE 9
Russia’s Shift from “Greater Europe” to “Greater Asia” POLITICS PAGE 5
Counsel for Georgia: Keep Up the Neutrality! POLITICS PAGE 6
ISET GDP Forecast | Higher Food, Fuel Prices on Global Market Drive Inflation, Dampen Growth Forecasts for Georgia ISET PAGE 6
Christoph Lanz on Berlin and Moscow’s Uneasy Relations INTERVIEW BY VAZHA TAVBERIDZE
BUSINESS PAGE 8
Georgia at the 72nd Berlin International Film Festival CULTURE PAGE 11
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game changer would be a surprise – I don’t expect any. If Biden and Macron failed, why would Scholz succeed? - says Christoph Lantz, a renowned German journalist and former director of television at Deutsche Welle in an interview with Radio Free Europe’s Georgian Service. During the conversation, he broke down the increasingly uneasy relationship between Berlin and Moscow as Chancellor Scholz pays a visit to Vladimir Putin in an attempt to deescalate the tension around Ukraine.
CULTURE PAGE 11 Prepared for Georgia Today Business by
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GBP 6.70
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Christoph Lantz, a renowned German journalist and former director of television at Deutsche Well
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The public is, in general, really disappointed by Scholz not saying anything. The biggest issue in that respect is North Stream 2.
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WHAT IS THE MOOD IN GERMANY AHEAD OF THE VISIT?
Continued on page 5
Liberty Bank Becomes an Official Partner of the Millennium Innovations Award
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NEWS
GEORGIA TODAY
FEBRUARY 18 - 24, 2022
Corona Updates: Omicron Strain Enters Downward Phase in Georgia THE STATISTICS
Image source: Netgazeti
BY ANA DUMBADZE
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n Georgia, this week was marked with high numbers of newly detected Coronavirus cases and related deaths. However, health officials say that the peak of the Omicron strain has already entered its downward phase. “The Omicron peak in Georgia has passed, but the current week will give a more precise picture,” Deputy Health Minister Tamar Gabunia said on Wednesday. “The number of daily positive cases will likely shrink by the end of the month,” she projected, adding that coronavirus testing is no longer needed following isolation. Amiran Gamkrelidze, Head of the
National Center for Disease Control and Public Health (NCDC), welcomed the stabilizing situation, but noted that wearing facemasks and vaccination remain as among the most efficient measures of protection against Covid-19. He noted that facemask wearing, both indoors and out, would be compulsory for a long time. “There is a viewpoint that coronavirus may turn into an endemic seasonal infection. We should watch and remain cautious,” he said. In recognition of the stabilizing situation in the country, the Coordination Council ruled that the clubbing industry will be able to resume operations from March 5-6, although only 60% of the maximum capacity will be allowed to enter the venues.
POLITICS
Political News of the Week at Home and Abroad BY TEAM GT
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ossible aggression by Russia toward the sovereign nation of Ukraine has been one of the most actively discussed topics in the panels of global affairs and international relations of late. President Zelensky and the Ukrainian people have been in the global spotlight in messages of solidarity to prevent a devastating war and maintain peace at the very borders of NATO and the European Union. Chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party, Irakli Kobakhidze recated to the global issue by noting that while they support Ukraine, Georgia’s response will depend on how events unfold. “The starting point for us is the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. These are the principles by which we will be guided. We will observe the events as they unfold and take respective steps,” the GD Chair said, adding that he has no current plans to visit Ukraine. “I am not going to visit Ukraine. We are watching events and depending on how they unfold, we will make a specific decision. We will decide on any step according to the developments, be it a visit or a statement. We have expressed a very loud position in our resolution regarding the current events in Ukraine,” he said. The GD Chairman also noted that all efforts were being made to ensure the security of Georgian citizens in Ukraine. “Yesterday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement addressing Georgian citizens in Ukraine. Of course, we will do our best to ensure the safety of our citizens when needed,” he said. “Given the high probability of further escalation in Ukraine, the Embassy of
Georgia in Kyiv and the Georgian consulates in the cities of Odessa and Donetsk (with residence in Kyiv) have switched to an emergency working regime. A hotline has been set up for the citizens of Georgia in Ukraine: +380 (63) 376 77 68; +380 (93) 761 17 17. Georgia’s diplomatic representations keep constant communication with Georgian citizens in Ukraine and urge them to take into account the difficult security situation on the ground.” At the same time, the US and the EU member states have called on their citizens to leave the territory of Ukraine.
THE RUSSIAN MILITARY Russia on Wednesday said military drills in Moscow-annexed Crimea had ended and that soldiers were returning to their garrisons. “Units of the Southern Military District, having completed their participation in tactical exercises, are moving to their permanent deployment points,” Moscow’s defense ministry said in a statement. State television showed images of military units crossing a bridge linking the Russia-controlled peninsula to the mainland. It comes a day after Moscow said it was pulling back some of the troops deployed at its neighbor’s borders. However, Western leaders, including US President Joe Biden, remain concerned that Russia could still launch an attack on Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says Russia should withdraw all troops from the Ukrainian border. “We have a rule: do not believe what you hear, believe what you see. When we see that Russia is withdrawing its forces, we will believe in de-escalation,” he said. Continued on page 4
Georgia reported 4,028 coronavirus cases, 22,517 recoveries, and 21 deaths on Monday. However, the NCDC’s Amiran Gamkrelidze that afternoon announced the number of coronavirus cases confirmed on Monday, which was displayed on the website, did not reflect the reality. “The shown infection figure does not reflect the real situation as we have a high positive rate, somewhere around 40%. The portal was being updated over the weekend and there was some technical work and not all data could be uploaded to the portal. We cannot judge by today’s numbers. Tomorrow the data will be updated, which includes both Sunday and Monday’s cases,” he said. Georgia reported 19,049 coronavirus cases, 18,409 recoveries, and 51 deaths on Tuesday. Georgian capital Tbilisi recorded the highest number of 8972 Covid-19 cases, followed by the Imereti region with 2854 cases, and the Adjara region with 1317 cases.
Georgia reported 15,315 coronavirus cases, 10,894 recoveries, and 55 deaths on Wednesday. Tbilisi recorded 7055 cases, followed by Adjara with 2960 cases and Imereti with 2233 cases. Georgia reported 15,644 coronavirus cases, 24,110 recoveries, and 46 deaths on Thursday. Tbilisi recorded the highest at 7574 cases within 24 hours, followed by the Imereti region with 2342 cases, and the Adjara region with 1109 cases. The daily test-positivity rate now stands at 29.57%, down from 32.01% in the past 14 days. Georgia’s total case tally reached 1,511,800, among which 1,324,172 people recovered and 15,729 died. As of 17 February, 2,787,627 people had received a Covid-19 vaccine.
THE CASES WORLDWIDE The World Health Organization says just over 16 million new Covid-19 infections were reported globally last week, dropping by 19% week-on-week, while recorded deaths remain stable at around
75,000 deaths last week. The organization noted that all other coronavirus variants, including Alpha, Beta and Delta, continue to decline globally as Omicron crowds them out. WHO said the BA.2 version of Omicron appears to be “steadily increasing” with its prevalence having risen in South Africa, Denmark, the UK and other countries, Al Jazeera reported. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says the acute phase of the pandemic could end by the middle of the year if about 70% of the world gets vaccinated.
HONG KONG Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam said on Tuesday there were no plans for a citywide lockdown in the global financial hub but "surrendering to the virus" was not an option, as authorities battle a surge of Covid-19 infections.
RUSSIA The highest number of new cases was seen in Russia this week. Cases there and elsewhere in Eastern Europe doubled, driven by a surge of the hugely infectious Omicron variant.
EUROPE In Europe, coronavirus case numbers slightly dropped in Germany, and the government plans to loosen restrictions.
THE US Washington D.C. will no longer require people to show proof of Covid-19 vaccination to enter businesses.
Head of “Green Diamond Project” Jihad Chakir on Earthquake Safety INTERVIEW BY MARIAM MTIVLISHVILI
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few days ago a 6.2 (ML) earthquake hit Georgia. Strong tremors were felt countrywide, causing fear among the population. GEORGIA TODAY talked to Jihad Chakir, head of the largest construction companies Green Diamond Project and Macro Construction, about how safe their resi-
dents are in their homes, how well the construction companies comply with the regulations when they are constructing new estates, and whether our citizens have a reason to fear this and other safety details. “The buildings of "Green Diamond" are constructed entirely in accordance with seismic regulations and are designed for earthquakes of magnitude 8 (ML),” Chakir tells us. “Compliance with all the conditions provided by the regulations is ensured in line with the applicable laws.
Even before starting construction, a geophysical survey is conducted on the entire construction site at the design phase, and within the boundaries of each building block, a seismic and specific resistance measurement is made, and only then the project is begun. The second phase of the "Green Diamond" residential complex has already been completed and more than 600 families already live there. Protection is among the main priorities of our company,” he says.
TELL US WHAT TECHNICAL DETAILS ENSURE THE SEISMIC RESISTANCE OF THE BUILDINGS. High strength concrete of C 30 category is used at the foundations and on all floors. A reinforced concrete carcass system is used in the project. All vertical bearing elements in residential buildings are constructed with reinforced concrete, and walls are also reinforced concrete, designed following the conditions of “Systems for which all earthquake impacts are carried by reinforced concrete walls.” Building foundations are arranged as massive raft foundations, meaning the full concrete foundation is reinforced. A tunnel formwork construction method is used in taller buildings and others are constructed using the monolith system. In the Green Diamond Project, buildings are designed completely in compliance with the earthquake regulations. All conditions required by the regulation are provided for. Geophysical studies under each block and resistivity measurements and seismic breaking measurements are done in the whole area. In the Green Diamond Project, roofs, floors, walls and ceilings are insulated. Furthermore, earth sand lightening rods are installed.
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POLITICS
GEORGIA TODAY
FEBRUARY 18 - 24, 2022
Russia’s Political and Military Demarche: More Explicitly on Its Separate Aspects. Part II BY VICTOR KIPIANI, GEOCASE CHAIRMAN
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pressing issue for Georgia now is a speedy transformation of a lukewarm activity of the West into a proactive one. Russia’s demarche and its far-reaching implications virtually eliminate a possibility for our partners to continue staying in a “comfort zone” in post-Soviet space. The West – as we have historically known it and accepted by publicly declaring it as a modern Georgian civilizational choice in the 1990s – must take a principled decision now. In particular, it must decide whether it continues only making supportive, at this stage already out of context statements and declarations, providing targeted financial injections and relatively limited programs for strengthening our defense capacity or turns around this rather dull, not-oriented-ontangible-result process to save our country from falling into a geopolitical abyss. Keeping the Georgia issue “hanging” for various reasons, leaving it untouched because of influence of actual “red lines,” giving one and the same excuses for not taking “risky” decisions, etc., make the West an involuntary accomplice in the Russian scenario. This might explain the Kremlin’s moderate tolerance of proWestern initiatives as well as Western influence in Russia’s neighborhood until a dividing line critical to Russia’s “vital interests” is not crossed. It should be noted, however, that by its recent demarch, Russia has already crossed this line. This, in turn, will now force the West, unexpectedly for it or at an inconvenient for it time, to drag itself out of geopolitical lethargy and take a principled position in relation to Georgia and even more so, demonstrate that by deeds because the expression of support through “impressive words” or “targeted programs” will, leaving aside unpleasant historical par-
allels, be assessed as, at least, hypocritical flirtation; even more, a historical opportunity to strengthen its position in the region for the West and a full realization of its choice for Georgia, will be reduced to future abstraction.
A NEED TO BE SAID We will refrain from more specific recommendations or sound advice and would also ask others to refrain from boldly giving any either. Taking about security, regional challenges and international positioning of our country is such a responsible action that it may take place only in such a discursive regime that is free from taboos and restrictions as well as benign “exclusivity” and is oriented on persuading or dissuading by reasoning and discussion. It is also necessary to conduct discussion of such sensitive topic (without infringing permissible openness and public interest) without the involvement of media. This will only benefit the quality of discussion and improve the qualification of discussants. The above few reservations serve the aim to free us from restraining ourselves to express opinions and to argue. Let’s start with the fact that the extraordinary geopolitical order around our country requires communication with our partners and stakeholders in an extraordinary regime. We must know what they want! They must know what we want! We must know what we expect and demand from one another! Such communication allows not to mince words and this may be even inevitable. Without a direct, comprehensive, sometimes uncompromised or reasonably compromised exchange of opinions it is impossible to act in a manner that is pragmatic, consistent and tailored to national interests. In conversation with its partners, Georgia must necessarily establish a practice of receiving direct answers to direct questions: how and in what timeframe, in particular, is the West ready to for-
mally complete the process of integration with us? Does it face an objectively obstructing barrier? Is it able to overcome it and what are we required to do for that? These and other questions can, of course, be further elaborated. The key is not to shy away from raising those questions and receiving answers to them – one cannot imagine a true partnership otherwise. Along with direct communication means it is necessary to employ all channels, that are available and have not been used so far, at every level - be it personal, quasi-institutional or any other. That is how a modern “transactional” politics is, unfortunately (?), done; thus, less “traditionalism” in approaches and more skilled improvisation for the aim of national security! Among numerous noteworthy aspects there is one in modern relationship, which sounds in the following way: to be a player, you have to be a payer. In short, the meaning of this phrase is that a necessary balance in relationship can only be achieved by reciprocity. Thus, knowing what we can give, we should also know what they can give to us – what are the resources and willingness for that. Otherwise, it will be difficult to make a result-oriented advancement in any relationship.
ESCALATION OR DEESCALATION? By the time of finishing this paper, both possibilities are theoretically equal. Clearly, if we apply conscientious diplomatic principles (which will not cite a further escalation as an excuse and threaten with “thwarting negotiations”), the crisis can be overcome through reasonable mutual compromise. It is also a fact that concrete parameters of possible resolution of the crisis are unknown for the moment, but the US State Department has already outlined some of them. In any case, the Western world and especially, the United States as well as
the Russian Federation must be driven by two motives for negotiations. One is a threat of kinetic confrontation which in case of degrading, intentionally or unintentionally, into a nuclear conflict will automatically exclude winners and losers. Another is that a disagreement between Americans and Russians will further strengthen China’s global influence, which is not in either a declared interest of Washington or undeclared interest of Moscow. It is equally important to note that in the relations with Russia, the West will have to recall the experience of the Cold War: the created situation and its possible development does not, unfortunately, leave any other option. Furthermore, to better match own capacities with desires, the Western partners will have to take into account two very important factors regarding Russia. One is a “merger” of European economic structure with that of Russia as well as the influence of Russian money on Western political and business circles. It will not be easy to loosen this interdependence, but without a proper regulation of this issue the West will find it difficult to improve a geopolitical weather. We would like to add yet another opinion to the topicality of this factor. For example, in talks by the West with Georgia (as well as with Ukraine) about socalled de facto Russian veto, we must take into account one very important circumstance. In particular, by submitting the Western political and business
processes to Russian economic influence, does the West itself involuntarily facilitate the effectiveness of Russian de facto veto? Could it be that the strengthening of Moscow’s decisive vote with regard to its neighborhood has been facilitated, inter alia, by a fact that the freedom of decision making by the West has been significantly restricted as a result of the abovementioned “merger”? Another factor, which is rather peculiar and serious, is Russia’s “asymmetric advantage” vis-a-vis the West – to achieve its goal, Russia does not basically and traditionally spare its own human, military or civil resources. In short, the key actors of the demarche discussed here and along with them, our country, have entered a new and very dangerous phase of geopolitical game. The entry into this phase has further complicated objectives of the Georgian state. The load of several most principled challenges faced by us has been increased by yet another, very weighty challenge: the challenge to succeed that the issues related to the fate of Georgia are not decided without our involvement. Under current conditions, this is an extremely difficult task. It must also be said say that if it is possible today to speak about even a tiny positive effect produced by the Russian demarche, it is precisely the triggering of discussions on rather uncomfortable but extremely principled questions raised in this very paper. The closer the culmination of events approaches, the higher the topicality of these issues.
Political News of the Week at Home and Abroad Continued from page 2
RECOGNIZING DONETSK AND LUHANSK In Russia this week, the State Duma supported a draft resolution on the recognition of the self-proclaimed “Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics.” The Duma considered two drafts- one submitted by the Communist Party and another by United Russia. The document submitted by United Russia provided for consultations with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, while the one submitted by the Communist Party envisaged sending it to the President directly. The document prepared by the Communist Party was supported by 351 deputies, 16 went against, one abstained. The version submitted by United Russia was supported by 310 deputies. As a result, the document of the Communist Party was selected. As such, the appeal of the chairman of the lower house of the Russian Parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, for recognition of the independence of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics will be sent directly to the Russian President.
GEORGIAN DELEGATION VISITS THE UK A Georgian parliamentary delegation paid a visit to the United Kingdom this week, and on February 11, participated in a Round Table of the Council on Geostrategy in London to discuss the situation in the region and the cooperation between Georgia and Great Britain. “At the meeting with the British experts on defense and security issues, and with the academic circles and analytical
organizations, we overviewed the situation in Ukraine, in the wider region, and the risks in the Black Sea basin. We discussed the Britain-Georgia cooperation prospects in defense and security and regional cooperation in general. We will introduce these recommendations to the Georgian Government and consider them upon the planning of our further activity,” the First Deputy Chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, Giorgi Khelashvili, stated. During the visit, Georgian MPs met with the Chief Executive of the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Richard Burge. According to the Chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, Nikoloz Samkharadze, the parties discussed the investment potential and capacity of Georgia. “London is one of the key financial hubs of the world with more than 400,000 businesses registered and paying VAT. It is a city of the greatest opportunities and, hence, we discussed the investment capacity of Georgia and informed Mr. Burge about the tax remissions Georgia established for foreign investors. We agreed to host the Delegation from the Chamber of Commerce as the pandemic allows, to introduce the investment potential of Georgia,” he stated. The Parliamentary Delegation is composed of MPs Nikoloz Samkharadze, Nino Tsilosani, Giorgi Khelashvili, and Teona Akubardia, and the Chief of the Speaker’s Cabinet, Levan Makhashvili.
UKRAINE: SAAKASHVILI IS A “VICTIM” Former president of Georgia, Mikheil
Saakashvili was also the topic of the news this week. Nika Gvaramia, Saakashvili’s lawyer, said the third president had been recognized as a “victim” by the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office. He noted that they are thus investigating the actions of Georgian law enforcers against Saakashvili, and says they already confirmed what was done to him, and now the only thing left is to identify the accused. “Mikheil Saakashvili is recognized as a victim by Ukraine, with excessive use of force having been used against him. There is a fact, there is a victim, the only step that needs to be taken is to identify the accused, and, most likely, it will be the Georgian law enforcement agencies and maybe not only the law enforcement agencies, high officials and not only high officials,” Gvaramia said. Mikheil Saakashvili, a citizen of Ukraine, was arrested in October last year after returning to Georgia.
GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLE Irakli Garibashvili, Prime Minister of Georgia, this week appointed Givi Tumanishvili as Chief of Staff at the National Security Council (NSC). The NSC Office provides information, analytical data, and organizational support to the National Security Council of Georgia. Identification, assessment, analysis, and forecasting of threats and challenges are among the key directions of the Office. The PM wished success to the newlyappointed official and highlighted the significance borne by the effective performance of the NSC. Givi Tumanishvili served as Head of
the Analytics Directorate at the Intelligence Service of Georgia from 2019, while working in various positions within the Military Intelligence Department of the Ministry of Defense of Georgia.
INTERVIEWING CANDIDATES FOR CHIEF OF THE SPECIAL INVESTIGATION SERVICE The Legal Issues Committee started the hearing of candidates Emzar Gagnidze and Karlo Katsitadze, nominated by the Prime Minister for the vacant position of Chief of the Special Investigation Service. “We will have questions to both candidates concerning their professionalism and experience, as well as their plans and visions. This process is maximally transparent and allows our society to observe the hearings,” Chair of the Committee Anri Okhanashvili stated. After the hearing, the candidates will be voted for at the plenary session. Pursuant to the Rules of Procedure, the Parliament elects the SIS Chief with a majority of full composition to a term of 6 years. On December 30, 2021, the changes introduced to the Law on State Inspector Service and the Law on Personal Data Protection entailed the establishment of two independent agencies – Special Investigation Service, and Personal Data Protection Service.
FOR GEORGIA MEMBER MADE CITY COUNCIL CHAIRMAN IN ZUGDIDI Giga Parulava, a member of Giorgi Gakharia’s party “For Georgia,” became the chairman of Zugdidi City Council this week. 25 deputies of the Council took part in the vote. The candidate was also
supported by the United National Movement. The Georgian Dream party did not take part in the vote. Members of the party “For Georgia” also became chairmen of the Rustavi, Chkhorotsku and Tsalenjikha City Councils. “This is a process of ending the oneparty rule of the Georgian Dream in the municipalities. Chairs and high positions are not a priority for us. The election of Giga Parulava in Zugdidi is good for the people of Zugdidi in the first place because he is a representative of a party that can compromise for citizens,” said Natia Mezvrishvili, member of For Georgia. “With consistent politics of compromise, our political party ‘For Georgia’ has begun changes and the end of Georgian Dream’s one-party rule in Georgia by winning chairmanship in four municipal Councils- proof that doing politics without radicalism and boycott is possible and brings change,” she added.
MP STATUS SUSPENDED FOR 3 OPPOSITION MPS In Tbilisi, the Georgian parliament approved the suspension of MP status for opposition politicians Elene Khoshtaria, Shalva Natelashvili and Badri Japaridze, and former Speaker Kakha Kuchava. Kakha Kuchava, the Former Speaker of the Parliament, had his mandate terminated on the basis of a personal statement. The grounds for termination of the mandates of Elene Khoshtaria and Shalva Natelashvili was their absence from plenary sessions, while Badri Japaridze lost his mandate due to the guilty verdict against him issued by Tbilisi City Court.
POLITICS
GEORGIA TODAY FEBRUARY 18 - 24, 2022
5
Russia’s Shift from “Greater Europe” to “Greater Asia” ANALYSIS BY EMIL AVDALIANI*
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hen Russia instigated war in Ukraine in 2014 and pushed Kyiv to the West, analysts pointed out, quite rightly, that Russia without its western neighbor would become more of an Asian power. With the country’s borders more in Asia than in Europe, it was argued, Moscow would inescapably focus more on the Middle East and China. The latter would become Russia’s primary ally in global politics, but there would also be fears that Beijing would overshadow Moscow’s role in their bilateral relations. In other words, analysts believed Russia would turn into a Chinese appendage that provided energy resources to the Asian giant. Years have passed, and there have been some interesting twists in the tale. Russian analysts and many in the West have started to develop the idea that the “Ukraine problem” and the ensuing
After losing large swathes of formerly Soviet territory, Russia was forced to find its place in 21st century Eurasia. Moscow would like to portray itself as independent, but it isn’t
deterioration of relations with the West freed Russia from its Euro-centrist views on foreign policy. For the first time since Peter the Great, Russia would initiate the “de-Europeanization” of its geopolitical outlook and once again be truly Russian in terms of the way it conducted its foreign relations. In this analysis, Beijing is viewed as a facilitator for Moscow. Because the two countries share a desire to limit US influence across Eurasia, there is indeed a sympathy among the Russian political elites for the idea of growing and formalizing Russia-China relations beyond the current level. Some even hesitantly approve of an alliance. This juggling of ideas about Russia’s foreign policy since 2014 is intriguing, but it obscures a crucial development: Russia is slowly being turned into an Asian power. Many might find this assertion farfetched and claim that Moscow now has more avenues through which to project its power across the Eurasian landmass. This “new diversification” idea misses the simple fact that Russia has always had a diversified foreign policy. Moscow was heavily involved in the Middle East for centuries. This applies not only to the Ottoman Empire of the 18th-19th centuries, but also to Russian interests in Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan (if we consider it as separate from Central Asia), northern China, the Korean Peninsula, and elsewhere. This was true during the time of the Romanovs as well as during Soviet times. The idea that Russian foreign policy since the Ukraine crisis has become more diversified does not correspond to the reality of the past two centuries. What we are seeing today is declining Russian political clout in eastern Europe. There might be talk of Russia’s pipeline geopolitics (often successful), successful annexation of Crimea, and thwarting of Ukraine’s, Moldova’s, and Georgia’s NATO/EU aspirations, but the ultimate success of all those measures remains open to question. The West is much more powerful than Russia in terms of economy and soft power, while Russia has been antagonizing its neighbors. Russia is becoming more Asia-focused (including the Middle East) not because of a Kremlin master plan but because playing the China card is inevitable and because that is the region where Moscow
Image source: Mladen Antonov/AFP via Getty Images
can place itself. About ten years ago, the Russian political elite was enthusiastic about the prospect of creating a greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok. This would have been a more or less unified economic space extending all the way to the borders of China. Putin himself publicly advocated this idea. A few years later, Russia’s vision completely changed. In geo-economic terms, Putin’s greater Europe idea was gradually replaced by the concept of a greater Asia from St. Petersburg to Shanghai. In 2014, China displaced Germany as Russia’s number one trade partner, but Russia is only tenth among China’s trade partners. China has also replaced Germany as Russia’s biggest supplier of machinery and equipment. It is commonplace in Russia for grand
geopolitical ideas to shift. A decade ago, Russians envisioned closer political and economic relations with Europe. Now many think about near-strategic cooperation with China, while still others think about being independent of China. Moscow will maintain relations with Europe. Many military, security, and economic problems across Europe can only be solved with Russian participation. But there are economic and cultural shifts that limit Russia’s projection of power into Ukraine, the Baltic States, and even the South Caucasus. Russia has a freer hand in Central Asia, through military moves in the chaotic Middle East and Africa. This illustrates how Russia, without Ukraine and the Baltic States, now has more frontiers in Asia than in Europe. It has become fashionable among Rus-
sia analysts to point out how in the past two decades under Putin the country regained much of its internal strength, which resulted in foreign policy successes. In fact, what has been more pivotal within the context of Russian history is that the Russian political elite in the past 20 years has been seeking the country’s new place in Eurasia. This development was easily foreseen. After losing large swathes of formerly Soviet territory, Russia was forced to find its place in 21st century Eurasia. Moscow would like to portray itself as independent, but it isn’t. Unable to accommodate itself with Europe, Russia has little choice but to turn to Asia. *Emil Avdaliani is a professor at European University and the Director of Middle East Studies at Georgian think-tank, Geocase.
Christoph Lanz on Berlin and Moscow’s Uneasy Relations Continued from page 1 It’s a German-Russian project, but the US President says “forget it” because the German Chancellor doesn’t have the strength to even speak out the name of the pipeline in the press conference, which, from my point of view, has to do with his internal party problems in the Social Democrats. The Social Democrats have a long history of closer ties to the Russians than any other current party.
WOULD GERMANY AND SCHOLZ BE WILLING TO TOE THE WASHINGTON LINE WHEN IT COMES TO NORD STREAM 2? If something happens around Ukraine regarding the sanctions, I’m 100% confident that we will not start to operate Nord Stream 2, that’s for sure. If the German government decides differently, if Putin starts a new aggression against Ukraine and we don’t touch Nord Stream 2, this means he managed to successfully divide Europe. Nord Stream 2 isn’t just a pipeline anymore, it’s now a symbol too.
GERMANY HAS BEEN CRITICIZED FOR ITS SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS STANCE ON UKRAINE – WHAT IS IT WITH THE GERMAN THINKING THAT DIFFERS WITH THE REST OF THE WEST? We have our share of “Putinverstehers,” such as the crazy former chancellor Schroder, whose behavior is disgusting. But even if we have these Putinverstehers, most in Germany are in favor of Ukraine and its sovereignty. Also, we don’t want a war within Europe. That might be, by the way, our problem in that conflict. Timothy Snyder, an American historian, says that Russia will always try to gain back their “blood lands”, their sphere of influence – Ukraine is one of these countries, and so is Georgia. When he was in Berlin, he said that we have to become aware of the real intentions of the Russians. And then he said, “You know what the question is? It’s are you ready to fight for those or not?” We are not, and this is the problem.
IS FIGHTING A WAR EQUAL TO DELIVERING DEFENSIVE
WEAPONRY TO UKRAINE? BECAUSE THAT’S ONE STANCE THAT GERMANY HAS SEEN A LOT OF CRITICISM FOR. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT BERLIN’S OFFICIAL LINE OF EXPLANATION CENTERS ON NOT DELIVERING WEAPONS TO TENSION ZONES – YET BERLIN HAS SEEN RECORD WEAPONS SALE REVENUES IN THE LAST YEAR, AND HAS BEEN SUPPLYING WEAPONS TO COUNTRIES LIKE EGYPT. WHY THE DOUBLE STANDARDS? I would say that while the Ukrainian President was a former comedian, he’s now the president and a politician, whereas the German government and politicians behave like comedians now by sending helmets to Ukraine. It’s ridiculous. I personally think we should not start to send millions of weapons, but I think it would be a good sign of solidarity to send a limited amount, whatever kind of defense-oriented weapons they may be. And I’m not the only one who says that in Germany. Around one fifth of the population thinks the same.
THE ONLY DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION THAT RUSSIA SEEMS TO FAVOR – AND WHICH BERLIN AND PARIS WOULD PROBABLY BE CONTENT WITH – MAKES KYIV VERY UNHAPPY. THE MINSK AGREEMENTS AND ITS STEINMEIER FORMULA ATTACHMENT MAKES UKRAINE WORRY IT WILL LEAD TO FEDERALIZATION AND A DE-FACTO VETO ON THE COUNTRY’S WESTERN COURSE. ARE KYIV’S FEARS JUSTIFIED? It’s not that I want to push any conspiracy theories, but you have to remember that Steinmeier was a very close ally of Gerhard Schroder. He served as Chief of Staff of the Chancellery for six years during Schroder’s tenure. And he belongs to the “old boys” network of the Social Democrats. I don’t think he followed our ethics and our principles when he made such a proposal. So I would say Kyiv’s fears are justified. I can really understand that people in Ukraine are irritated by Germany today, I met with a Ukrainian friend of mine, and when it came time to say goodbye to her, I said I felt very embarrassed by the German govern-
ment’s behavior. I apologized, and said I wished her country all the best. And it wasn’t easy for me. But that’s all you can say.
AND FINALLY – YOUR THOUGHTS ON THIS RT VS DEUTSCHE WELLE STANDOFF THAT THE KREMLIN SEEMS TO BE ALL TOO TRIGGERHAPPY ABOUT? The conflict around Deutsche Welle and Russia Today is another stone in the mosaic of the tensions between Germany and Russia. That’s really a tough, asymmetrical reaction – rolling out big cannons after a little incident. I see it as a pure provocation, but what should our answer be? Should we kick out the Russian journalists because of that? I don’t think that would be clever. Our policy is that, unlike Russia, we really have press independence. And we really respect the freedom of opinion, maybe sometimes even too much. We should demand the return of Deutsche Welle, because they had a running license – unlike Russia Today – and the Russian state just took it away. But in one and a half, two years from now, Deutsche Welle will open up an office in Moscow again.
6
POLITICS
GEORGIA TODAY
FEBRUARY 18 - 24, 2022
The Big Picture of Russian Military Posturing BY MICHAEL GODWIN
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he density of Russian military units being posted to locations near Ukraine outside of their typical training areas is continually furrowing European and American brows. The topic had a meteoric rise in popularity in the wake of several recent meetings between NATO and EU member states, American diplomats, and other stakeholders, along with missives, demanding an explanation from the Kremlin. Russia insists it is NATO who
is stoking the fires, while NATO argues the reverse. Ever since the 2014 invasion and subsequent occupation of its easternmost province of Donbas, Ukraine has fought politically with NATO and other Western allies for support. Much of that support, particularly in the form of battlefield technologies and hardware, was realized. However, it was the large strategic allies such as the United States and the United Kingdom that still kept a nebulous position on interventionism, opting for the issue to remain a containerized RussiaUkraine problem. Many have allowed the military movements of the Russian forces to stay within
An unclassified U.S. intelligence document on Russian military movement shows new positions of up to 50 new BTGs in place. Source: The Washington Post
that scope. This ignores the larger scale implications of a continual escalation. This influx of men and hardware is far outside any typical maneuvering force. Almost 100 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) are being positioned well within striking distance of Ukraine, potentially in a similar way to American RSOI during the lead up to the War on Terror. RSOI, or Reception-Staging-Onward Movement-Integration, is a system for compressing and unpacking military elements for long travel. Typically utilized during large international training operations and combat deployments, this is a streamlined way to move large numbers of people and equipment. Since the United States generally operates thousands of kilometers from their conflict areas, this has become an integral part of the American military machine. With Russia constructing these RSOI nodes around Ukraine, it allows for not only the initial invasion forces to quickly enter the country, but also for follow-on and support forces to seamlessly move in behind them. In the initial 2014 invasion of Ukraine, Russia brought to bear approximately 4 or 5 BTGs. The following year, it is estimated 10 to 12 BTGs were deployed. With up to 100 BTGs in the region, the scale becomes much more sobering. Large formations of this nature are not mobilized in such a way normally. Decisions have most assuredly been made at some of the highest levels to ensure each component is in place and is at the highest readiness level for potential largescale combat. Commanders thus far have delivered to Putin the option to invade and take additional large swaths of land in Ukraine.
Forward deployed Russian military hardware is seen via satellite imagery 300km (185 miles) from Ukraine. Photo by Maxar via Reuters
This option, whether or not he actually intends to use it, is more than a check against NATO. Putin and his staff believe they know Ukraine and its role in the Eurasian political game far better than anyone else. He is also not one to shy away from high-risk/high-reward games. While coercive bargaining is certainly plan “A”, war is his only plan “B.” As a result, they have opted to use this show of force as a hedge against Western perceived ignorance. Despite this, it is unlikely that total war is on the horizon. Russia, economically stricken and buckling under increasing foreign sanctions, would not be able to bear the brunt of funding another invasion. More likely, and certainly more in line with the now infamous “Maskirovka” tactics, they will wage a hybrid and salami-slicing campaign to gain more of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. By staying just under the limit of NATO’s definition of invasion, more leverage can be levied against Kyiv. This leverage aims to keep Ukraine from becoming too warm to NATO, and certainly from any potential membership. Putin knows that Ukraine will eventually make that move. With its growing sentiments towards Western integration, it is becoming more of an inevitability that they will ascend to the alliance. As a result, any delaying action to parry that is paramount in his mind. But Ukraine is only the start. If NATO is unwilling to engage in the event of hostilities in Ukraine, what about Latvia, Lithuania, or even Poland? The salami slicing against the sworn enemy of the Russian Federation, at least at the Kremlin sees it, will only stop when met with enough resistance. In far less kinetic
operations, the undermining of democratic systems of vulnerable nations on NATO’s fringe, such as Georgia and Ukraine, will continue to keep the soil fertile for the aforementioned kinetic operations. Unlike Georgia, Ukraine is essential to Putin's larger mission to restore the empire he witnessed collapse, something he has repeatedly framed as the single greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. While reclaiming Georgia is a bonus, the current hold he has on the nation can satiate his hunger for the time being. Along with Armenia firmly in his pocket, this ensures his southern flank is secure and the Caucasus is no longer the headache it once was. This latest sequence of bouts between the West and Russia is undoubtedly not the last we will see. Instances of increased tension will continue to flare on almost a sine wave pattern until senior national leadership makes full generational changes, most likely not to be seen by any reading this. The predictable dialogue will continue to be Russia accusing the West of dithering and inaction on key diplomatic items, and the West will paint Russia to be the overly aggressive bear reminiscent of the Soviet Union. Zooming in, it is Ukraine themselves, as well as Georgia and Moldova, that will have to look inward for any hope of self-preservation for the time being. NATO is an honorable and righteous organization for sure, but to rely on them in the current state is akin to the old adage “hope is not a plan.” Until a united and firm front against the prying claws of the Kremlin can curtail future advancement, the trio of Russian-abused states will have to stand their own ground.
Counsel for Georgia: Keep Up the Neutrality! OP-ED BY NUGZAR B. RUHADZE
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t would probably take a genius to know the right advice to give Georgia’s current leadership concerning the way it should behave if the much talked about and presumed incipient fratricidal war kicks off between Russia and Ukraine (a potential event which would make zero sense to any of the concerned parties, or the rest of the world, I would say). The global mass media, especially its western wing, has gone absolutely hysterical about the possibility of Russia’s unleashing war on its erstwhile ally and historical blood-brother Ukraine. Georgia is definitely tired of living between the hammer and the anvil. A part of Georgian society, as polarized as it is today, remains radical in terms of evaluating the relationship between Russia and Georgia, condemning anything that is “Russian,” including even the language, culture and literature. The other part tends to perpetuate the idea that we’d better find a means to befriend Russia all over again so that our physical survival is provided for. It seems like both attitudes lack reason and abound in emotionality: the former obsessed with the immediate radical westernization of Georgia, and the latter stubbornly digging in to reinstate the once adorable Russian-Georgian social interaction.
The way out of the lately crystallized situation on the international arena seems to be the extant model of diplomatic behavior of the current Georgian government, whose effort to maintain neutrality and develop a multi-vector policy in the region seems most optimal for the day. If irritating Russia, that giant of worldwide geopolitical interaction, is reckoned unwise as a minimum, then we should understand why this Georgian administration wants to steer clear of bringing the beast out of the ‘giant’, refusing to support the Ukrainian cause by using unnecessary and irrelevant emotional and verbose statements, just to play to the fits and whims of its local political opposition- an opposition which is jumps out of its skin several times a day to prove it is still alive. Why is maintaining a calm and neutral position so bad for Georgia in this tragically deteriorated Russian-Ukrainian deal? Who says it is right and practicable for us Georgians to build goodwill with Ukraine and continue constructing the daggers-drawn attitude towards Russia? Why would this be rational and a winwin for us, one of the smallest nations in the world and not the richest either? Why is the Georgian-Ukrainian brotherhood so valuable and the Russian-Georgian slightly improved and seemingly promising friendship so cheap? Georgia should not, cannot and will not fight with anybody any more for the very simple reason that we have fought enough in the last thirty years, and hav-
ing achieved nothing valuable, we are now too exhausted to be out shooting. We need the world to cooperate with us so as we are to build back and up our own lives, to overpower the destructive errors of the recent past and hold up the constructing blueprint of our labor and understanding. If, God forbid, war bursts out between Russia and Ukraine, I’d rather our soldiers stay home and get ready to defend our own land, which is already cut to
pieces, and to cure those historical lacerations struggling to heal. We cannot afford to love some nations and hate others; we need to be in mutual love with all of them. Not even one enemy should be made out of the nations that are living and working around us. You want to call me a pacifist? So what! The epithet doesn’t offend me. Call me whatever you want, but keep Georgia safe and sound. Enough is enough! The Russian-Ukrainian skirmish
reminds of a husband-and-wife scuffle – they fight today and may kiss tomorrow. Having that in mind, Georgia might feel strange if Russia and Ukraine make it up again; embarrassed because we didn’t use enough ruses to manage it with better smarts. Neutrality may sound like a piece of cake at this heating-up moment, but let’s keep it up, so that nothing regrettable for this country emerges in the future, a future that might not be very far away at all.
BUSINESS
GEORGIA TODAY FEBRUARY 18 - 24, 2022
7
ISET GDP Forecast | Higher Food, Fuel Prices on Global Market Drive Inflation, Dampen Growth Forecasts for Georgia BY DAVIT KESHELAVA AND YASYA BABYCH
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SET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the first and second quarters of 2022. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
HIGHLIGHTS • Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2021, and their estimated growth stands at 9.5%, which is 1.4 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast. • The annual real GDP growth in 2021 amounted to 10.6%, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than our recent prediction. • As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q1 of 2022 was revised downward to 5.9% from 7.4% in January. ISET PI’s first forecast for Q2 of 2022 puts GDP growth at negative 3.9% (as explained below, the negative result is driven in part by the high base effect from Q2 2021, when quarter’s growth reached 28.9%). • Based on December data, the annual growth in 2022 is expected to be 1.7% in the worst-case scenario, and 2.7% in the best-case or an average long-term growth scenario. Our middle-of-the- road scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 2.1% increase in real GDP. • Notably, our econometric model depends only on the retrospective information (past observations), thus, an abnormally large growth of the real GDP in the second quarter of 2021 (which was partially driven by base effect and accumulated demand) might cause underestimation of the growth in the first and second quarters of 2022. • According to the recent Monetary Policy Report of the National Bank of Georgia (NBG), real economic growth forecast for 2022 remained unchanged at 5%. This growth prediction is driven by increased fiscal spending, lending activity and foreign revenue (including tourism).
VARIABLES BEHIND THE GDP GROWTH FORECAST: Merchandise Trade. In December, Georgia’s exports experienced an 28.8% annual growth. This was mainly driven by increased export/re-export of ferro alloys (contributing by 14.4 percentage points), copper ores and concentrates (by 4.0 ppts), and mineral and chemical fertilizers (by 3.3 ppts). In contrast, exports/ re-exports of motor cars (by 0.1 ppt), natural grape wines (by 0.4 ppt), alcohol spirits (by 0.5 ppt), mineral and still water (by 0.1 ppt), medicines (by 0.2 ppt), hazelnuts and other nuts (by 0.2 ppt), and citrus (by 0.3 ppt) experienced annual decline. During this period, the import of goods increased by 26.3%, driven by an increased import of petroleum and petroleum products (contributing by 4.5 percentage
points), and copper ores and concentrates (by 3.2 ppts). Consequently, the trade deficit widened dramatically by 24.6% yearly, and amounted to 618.5 million USD. Overall, trade related variables still had a small positive contribution to the GDP growth forecast.
REMITTANCES. In December, remittances increased by 14.9% annually and reached 229.5 million USD (the growth was partially driven by increased use of bank transfers rather than physically carrying money via border due to COVID regulations). The main contributors to this increase were Kazakhstan (by 368.4% YoY, contributing 5.3 ppts), Italy (by 19.1% YoY, 3.0 ppts), Kyrgyz Republic (by 296.6% YoY, 2.2 ppts), USA (by 19.5% YoY, 2.2 ppts), Germany (by 39.1% YoY, 1.6 ppts), and Israel (by 13.8% YoY, 1.1 ppts). Whereas money inflows decreased from Greece (by 8.6% YoY, -1.0 ppt), Turkey (by 17.9% YoY, -0.9 ppt), Ukraine (by 17.5% YoY, -0.8 ppt), and Russian Federation (by 2.5% YoY, -0.5 ppt). Overall, the recovery of remittances flows made a positive contribution to the growth forecast.
number of international visitors increased by 226.4% yearly (decreased by 69.9% compared to the same month in 2019), while the increase in tourist numbers (visitors who spent 24 hours or more in Georgia) amounted to 239.1%. Overall, recovering numbers of visitors and tourists, along with a moderate increase in touristic spending has made a small positive contribution to the growth forecast.
REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (REER). REER appreciated by 4.0% monthly and 20.5% yearly in December. The Lari Real Exchange Rate (RER) appreciated monthly with respect to the currencies of the major partner countries: Turkish Lira (TRY) (by 15.3%), Euro (EUR) (by 2.1%), Russian Ruble (RUB) (by 2.2%), and US Dollar (USD) (by 1.2%). Moreover, the GEL/TRY, GEL/EUR, GEL/USD, and GEL/RUB real exchange rate appreciated compared to the same month of the previous year by 55.2%, 23.8%, 12.9%, and 11.0% respectively. Overall, REERrelated variables had a small positive contribution to the real GDP growth projections.
TOURISM.
MONEY SUPPLY.
Tourism arrivals and receipts only partially recovered in December of 2021 after a sharp decline in 2020. In December, the
All monetary aggregates except the narrowest, Narrow Money (M0) and Currency in Circulation, experience notable
growth in annual terms. Monetary aggregates M2 and M3 experienced yearly growth of 17.8% and 11.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, currency in circulation decreased relatively moderately by 1.6% yearly. However, the Narrow Money (M0) decline by 5.1% in annual terms. Overall, money supply related variables had a slight positive contribution to the real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2022 based on our model.
INFLATION. In December, the annual inflation of consumer prices amounted to 13.9%, which is notably higher than the targeted 3% (reaching its maximum level since 2011). Approximately 4.7 percentage points of CPI inflation were related to higher food prices, which increased 16.1% annually (this was driven by the hike in food prices worldwide – FAO Food Price Index increased by 23.5% yearly). Fur-
thermore, increased oil prices made a notable positive contribution (1.9 ppts) to the annual inflation measure. The latter trend is mostly a reflection of significantly increased oil prices on the global market (Euro Brent Spot Price (COP) increased by 48.4% yearly. The other important contributor was higher utility prices, with contribution of 3.6 ppts –2 ppts higher than in the previous month . Meanwhile, the measure of core inflation amounted to 6.0%. Due to higher annual inflation rate compared to the targeted 3% and risks of emerging inflationary expectations, National Bank of Georgia (NBG) increased Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 0.5 percentage point - to 10.5% in December 2021. The MPR remained unchanged in February 2022 (thus, NBG continue undertaking strict monetary policy). Overall, CPI related variables had a slight negative contribution to the GDP forecast.
Our forecasting model is based on the Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) methodology developed by the New Economic School, Moscow, Russia. We have constructed a dynamic model of the Georgian economy, which assumes that all economic variables, including GDP itself, are driven by a small number of factors that can be extracted from the data well before the GDP growth estimates are published. For each quarter, ISET-PI produces five consecutive monthly forecasts (or “vintages”), which increase in precision as time passes. Our first forecast (the 1st vintage) is available around five months before the end of the quarter in question. The last forecast (the 5th vintage) is published in the first month of the next quarter.
8
BUSINESS
GEORGIA TODAY
FEBRUARY 18 - 24, 2022
Liberty Bank Becomes an Official Partner of the Millennium Innovations Award
L
iberty Bank became an official partner of the Millennium Innovations Award. The Millennium Innovations Award implemented by the Millennium Foundation is a nationwide competition for 13-18 years old students from Georgian public and private schools. The competition, which will run for the eighth consecutive year, is being implemented with the financial support of the US Embassy in Georgia and aims to foster innovation and new technologies among Georgian youth. The winning team will participate in the Space Center University summer camp at NASA Houston Space Center in the USA. The second and third place winners will also participate in interna-
tional STEM camps and/or will be awarded with different prizes. "The Millennium Innovations Award founded in 2014 has already become a traditional competition in Georgia,” says Magda Magradze, Executive Director of the Millennium Foundation. “The interest of young people as well as new partners in the competition is growing every year. The competition serves to increase the interest of young people in science and technology, the STEM fields, and to encourage the development of innovative ideas and projects. Most of the participants of the competition continue their education in STEM disciplines, which we believe is extremely important for the future development of our country, since there is high demand for qual-
ified professionals is in these fields. This year, a new strategic partner - Liberty Bank has joined us. We are confident that together with our partners, we will be able to further develop the competition and support our youth’s future aspirations.” "It is a great honor for Liberty to become a partner of the Millennium Innovations Award,” notes Vasil Khodeli, CEO of Liberty Bank. “Our cooperation is primarily based on the alignment of our values, which is especially important to achieve our common goal - to help young people gain knowledge and increase their interest in future professions. One of the main priorities of Liberty's new strategy is to support education, and we think that this partnership will further
strengthen the education of talented, young people living in the regions who are looking for innovative ideas. “We are excited to meet and befriend interesting people from the Millennium Foundation team. The Liberty team is ready to invest all its resources in the most important goal – to promote the education of the next generation.” The students who want to participate in the competition must have been born between April 2, 2005 and April 1, 2009. They can submit their innovative projects in the Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) disciplines in the following sub-categories: Space and Aviation, Robotics, Mobile Technologies and Applications, Environment, Healthcare and Nutrition. The submitted
projects will be evaluated by an independent evaluation panel. The traditional partners of the competition are the Georgian Innovation and Technology Agency (GITA) and Sakpatenti. The program is implemented in partnership with the Ministry of Education and Science of Georgia. The competition can be undertaken in teams: a minimum number of 2, and a maximum of 5. The competition consists of several stages. The deadline for application submission is March 25, 2022. You can download the competition terms and application from the website – www. millennium.org.ge. In case of questions, you can contact the organizers at: (0) 32 2281 185.
BUSINESS
GEORGIA TODAY FEBRUARY 18 - 24, 2022
9
The Innovative Leadership of Khaled Osama, York Towers' New CEO
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espite the elevated risks associated with the Covid19 pandemic crisis, the real estate market is showing an upward trend of late. Demand for real estate is increasing as economic activity resumes. Simultaneously, as demand grows and market uncertainty diminishes, real estate prices remain stable. In response to these trends, York Towers is undergoing substantial transformations, both technical and structural, ideological and brand development-related. By concentrating on the demands of multinational clientele, the firm has established a global presence. As a result of 5 years of successful operation in the Georgian market, "York Towers" has evolved into a holding company. The asset management and brokerage arm of York Holding Group – York Towers is now headed by Khaled Osama, a highly analytical and data driven professional who has allowed the group to successfully acquire and sell the whole catalogue of York assets over the years. York Towers has been successful in creating value for clients with a view to maximizing returns. Market research and the ability to predict emerging trends gives them an edge over any other local or international brokers on the market. Property Georgia spoke to Mr. Osama about this news and the company’s activities under his management.
CONGRATULATIONS ON THE NEW ROLE! LET’S START WITH YOUR PLANS AS YORK TOWERS CEO. WHAT IS YOUR STRATEGY FOR SUCCESS ON TODAY’S VERY COMPETITIVE RESIDENTIAL MARKET? Our strategy is our high level of service, as well as diversification and speed. We
Even though we have been quite successful, we are still hungry for more
I believe it is crucial for any business today to be transparent to its clients, partners, and employees alike
sell projects that are built on our (York Holding Group) own lands and projects that we buy from construction companies. That’s an important part of the strategy that ensures that we have a diverse portfolio of properties on offer for our clients, including land, apartments, villas, etc. Acquisitions are the important part of our angle. If and when we find something suitable within our parameters, we are able to move fast and buy. This gives us a huge supply of properties, but demand is always there because of York Towers attentive approach to customer care and relations. Even though we have been quite successful, we are still hungry for more. Also vital are our employees, and in particular, that they understand where the company is going. I make sure everybody working in York Towers actually knows the strategy and what it means in our day-to-day operations. Everybody needs to really understand their role in the strategy and how they are adding value to it.
so that I can understand what’s going on throughout the organization, and answer any questions that may arise. It’s like combining all the capabilities from the company and all the best ideas. I’m in favor of such a keyword as “transparency”. I believe it is crucial for any business today to be transparent to its clients, partners, and employees alike. I will do my best to preserve and maintain all the best that York Towers has achieved during the past 5 years, and focus on further step-by-step development. We’ve already launched a number of initiatives focusing on internal effectiveness and customer experience, aiming at making every interaction within the company and with our clients quicker and more effective. We’ve upgraded and fine-tuned our CRM system, making sure it constantly improves and learns based on feedback loops. I believe that the main objective of the CEO is the synchronization between every unit of the company to make it act as a single living being.
HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE YOUR MANAGEMENT STYLE AND OBJECTIVES?
IS THE COMPANY’S APPROACH DIFFERENT WHEN IT COMES TO COMMUNICATION WITH CUSTOMERS?
First of all, I spend a lot of his time attending meetings at all levels of the company
When you get around four hundred new customers a year, it is easier to reach out
to every one of them. However, when you get one hundred new customers each month in addition to the existing residents, integrating new technology and adopting a systemic approach becomes a priority. We constantly implement new standards and maintain communication with our clients to identify their needs and expectations. We also try to keep an individual approach to maintain an emotional connection with our customers.
YOUR DIRECTORSHIP ALSO COINCIDED WITH THE MOST ACUTE PHASE OF THE PANDEMIC. WHAT SIGNALS DID YOU GET FROM THE MARKET? We are constantly one step ahead of the game in the real estate industry since we do much more than sell homes: we build a lifestyle. For instance, we were among the first to offer turnkey apartments, energy-efficient construction, and fire safety standards. Our buildings are accessible to disabled individuals. Our customer and hospitality services (for international clients) are always available, ensuring our clients' safety, security, and complete comfort. When the time came to offer something new, we sat together and discussed how we
might elevate our performance and provide our clients with greater value. This is how we came up with the idea for the gated communities of York Town and Lisi View, launched the projects a couple years ago, and successfully completed the early phases of land development and construction. Here, rather than selling square meters, we are selling space. We are selling the environment and a way of life.
DO YOU USUALLY MEET THE EXISTING DEMAND ON THE MARKET, OR DO YOU INDUCE NEW DEMAND? The number of residents per apartment in Tbilisi is considerably higher than the European average, and, moreover, there’s international demand both for living and investment purposes. Therefore, demand has not yet been met. Additionally, our company’s advantage is our innovative approach that also creates demand. When you are conducting such an extensive urban development initiative and creating a new center of attraction, demand tends to shift towards that center and other construction projects start to develop around it.
AND WHAT YOU ARE DOING HAS BECOME A TREND? Indeed, we are striving to create new market trends and launch novel products. Naturally, others will follow suit: we are developing a neighborhood, selling turnkey apartments, and developing energy-efficient structures, among other things. Innovation is risky, but also extremely beneficial; all of this has already become a trend.
SOCIETY
New Study of Attitudes to Diversity in Georgia: People Increasingly Positive about Minorities
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he Council of Europe Office in Georgia presented the results of the project “Fight against Discrimination, Hate Speech and Hate Crimes in Georgia” carried out in 2018-2021 and the main findings of the study “Hate Speech, Hate Crimes and Discrimination in Georgia: Attitudes and Awareness in 2021” conducted under the project and comparing the change in the public attitudes to diversity over the past three years. The project was implemented under the Council of Europe’s Action Plan for Georgia 2020-2023 with the support of the Danish Neighborhood Program in Georgia (DANEP). The study focused on the awareness, understanding and appreciation of diversity in the Georgian society; the protection of minorities and vulnerable groups;
occurrence of discrimination, hate crime and hate speech in the Georgian society and who it affects; public attitude to and knowledge of Georgian legislation against discrimination, hate crime, and hate speech; existing redress mechanisms and their effectiveness; and different actors’ work in this field. The study demonstrates that knowledge and appreciation of diversity in Georgian society increased between 2018 and 2021. Positive attitudes towards diversity in general increased from 56% to 70%, a 14 percentage point increase. People are more capable of naming a minority group and the public has significantly more positive attitudes towards diversity in general, and ethnic and religious diversity, in particular. For ethnic diversity, the data show a 12-point increase in positive attitudes, from 56% to 68%.
a greater extent the importance of minority rights and their protection compared to 2018. The number of persons thinking protecting the LGBTI rights is important rose from 33% in 2018 to 47% in 2021. At the same time, the number of persons that thought the protection of LGBT rights was unimportant decreased from 44% in 2018 to 29% in 2021. While the public’s attitudes have become increasingly positive about diversity, there has been little if any change in terms of awareness of Georgian legislation against discrimination, hate crime, and hate speech. Knowledge of and appreciation of existing redress mechanisms and their effectiveness also remain unchanged. For religious diversity, the data show an increase of 14 percentage points from
46% in 2018 to 60% in 2021. The pubic also began to recognize to
See this article on georgiatoday.ge for more details.
10
SOCIETY
GEORGIA TODAY
FEBRUARY 18 - 24, 2022
Torch Time: Etseri, Svaneti
BLOG BY TONY HANMER
O
nce again the annual cycle of events brings us back to Lamproba, the Festival of Torches in Upper Svaneti, centered on Etseri. It’s connected with the changing date of Orthodox Easter, so it too changes within a range; but it’s always “in the bleak midwinter”. Despite asking many people, I have not found a confidently asserted date, or even century or foe, as details of the battle won near Etseri by men carrying burning torches. However, this time, visiting my neighbor and best friend in the village, I did glean some more intriguing details about the festival itself. The torches are always made of straight birch boughs, one per male family member, the largest belonging to St. George as an extra. Why birch? Here’s why: the legend is that Jesus Christ was running from some persecutors, and in a forest he asked an evergreen tree to hide him
among its branches. It refused, putting them up instead of down to cover him. Another tree, of indefinite species, did the same. But the birch, which he asked third, obliged, and put its branches down to hide him. So, in honor of this protection, birches are always used as these particular torches, and revered for other purposes too! Each branch is cut and, while still very fresh and green, split many times at one end with an adze, making that end spread out a bit like a broom. The greenness ensures that these splits will not break off. Cedar chips (and, more modernly, diesel) are added to the cuts to make it burn better. The morning of Lamproba, ideally while it’s still dark, the men and boys of each family light the torches and carry them burning through the deeply snowladen village paths to where the bonfire of them will be started; usually one location per hamlet, just outside a church. (Our place features a large old pagan holy tree just outside the church, a walnut I think, visibly vying with it for pride of religious place in people’s hearts and
lives.) They make the fire right on the snow, and it burns strongly enough that over the next few hours it will melt through half a meter or more of snow down to the ground, without putting itself out. We greet and congratulate each other for the Day. Then, a while later, the women and other family members will start to arrive, with bags of little round bread loaves and bottles of either moonshine or wine. Three at a time, the men
take three loaves each and pray out loud and together (ideally in Svan) for each family in turn. Toasts are drunk, because, Georgia. Later (which The Virus makes us miss as we are currently doing with all feasts), there will be a traditional Georgian feast in each hamlet, hosted by a different family each year in turn. This year was the first time that I was invited and requested to join in the prayers for each family, which I gladly did, in English but with no-one objecting. It felt like I really was being shown that I belong to the community, which gladdened my heart much. I had two male guests with me, from Chile and Canada, and they were fascinated with the proceedings, and privi-
leged to be there for the timing of the whole event, which in their eyes was a marvelous medieval-era thing preserved to now. The details lost, it still unites Svans in their own province, elsewhere in Georgia and indeed wherever they are in the world. Tony Hanmer has lived in Georgia since 1999, in Svaneti since 2007, and been a weekly writer and photographer for GT since early 2011. He runs the “Svaneti Renaissance” Facebook group, now with nearly 2000 members, at www.facebook.com/ groups/SvanetiRenaissance/ He and his wife also run their own guest house in Etseri: www.facebook.com/hanmer.house.svaneti
CULTURE
GEORGIA TODAY FEBRUARY 18 - 24, 2022
11
On the Works of Marjory Wardrop. Part II BY INNES MERABISHVILI*
E
nclosed within the solid walls of a Victorian house, Marjory proceeded her perception of Georgia through translating activities and the first book she published was the translation of “Georgian Folk Tales”, 1894, followed by “Life of St Nino”, 1900. The latter informed the English reader about the life and mission of St Nino who converted Georgia to Christianity as early as in 327. In 1894, when Oliver left for a second journey to Georgia, Marjory wrote to him: “I do not know why I can think of nothing to speak about but Georgia! I am happy for you to be there, but oh! to be with you.” It is clear that for a twentyyear-old girl that could never mean a mere satisfaction of cognitive goals. That was falling in love, but not with a handsome prince... That was falling in love with a remote country, its ancient culture and people. Like in all fairy-tales, miracles were to happen in Marjory’s life as well. The first two miracles that awaited her were two forthcoming visits to Georgia. The third and the greatest miracle to happen was an encounter with the greatest Renaissance poet of Georgia, Shota Rustveli. Marjory, who successfully mastered the Georgian language, began meticulous and thorough studies of a Georgian epic poem “The Man in the Panther’s Skin” by Shota Rustveli. The medieval culture in Georgia reached its peak of development by the end of XII century and the beginning of XIII century. The best representation of Georgian culture of that period of time, known as “The Golden Age”, is certainly “The Man in the Panther’s Skin”, deemed to be one amongst the masterpieces of the world literature. The goal of her endeavors was to translate the poem into her native tongue. It took her full eighteen years to study one of the most difficult, arguable, polyphonic texts and to accomplish a prose English
version of the masterpiece with 1576 quatrains. Unlike many love stories, NestanDarejan, the leading female character of the poem, dares to be the first to reveal her feelings to her beloved man, Tariel – the knight in the panther’s skin, and forwards a letter to him. It happened so that Marjory summoned her courage and forwarded a letter to her beloved Georgia. The letter was addressed personally to Prince Ilia Chavchavadze, the poet, statesman and the most prominent figure of Georgia, called “The Uncrowned King” and “The Father of the Nation”. Expressing her interest and love for Georgia, Marjory requested permission to publish Ilia Chavchavadze’s poem “The Hermit” in her English poetical translation. The letter, that reached the Georgian poet from faraway Albion, was a miracle itself as far as it was written almost in perfect Georgian by a young lady, who had never been in Georgia, was selfeducated and could translate poetry into English. Prince Ilia Chavchavadze, the editor of Tbilisi daily newspaper “Iveria”, printed the letter on the very cover of one of its issues. Amazing news spread in the speediest way, causing admiration for the young lady and gratitude for such interest from the outside world. Marjory was invited to Georgia and a few months later, in December 1894, she arrived in the Ajarian port Batumi in Western Georgia, the Black Sea Coast via Greece, accompanied by her mother. Her first travels to Georgia intentionally symbolized the route of the Argonauts to the land of Medea. Oliver wrote the sequence to their reception in Kutaisi, the city in Western Georgia: “the platform, waiting rooms and the outside of the station were all occupied by a vast crowd of the cream of Kutais society apparelled in gorgeous raiment: bouquets of the most brilliant hue were presented and great enthusiasm displayed.” Marjory and her mother stayed in Georgia for two months that permitted
her to travel all over the country and besides the urban life to feel and learn rural Georgia. When in Guria, one of the picturesque western regions of the country, Marjory enjoyed and loved the folk and spoke to them in their dialect. Happy and elated, Marjory returned to England and in 1895, “The Hermit” was published in London with the translator’s preface, where she wrote: “While most English readers are, to some extent, acquainted with the literature of Persia, there are but few who are aware of the existence of Georgian literature. Yet Georgia is well worthy of attention. The Man in the Panther’s Skin, by Rust’haveli, the great epic poet of the 12th century, loses nothing by comparison with Firdausi’s Shah Nameh; but what modern Persian can be placed beside Barat’hashvili or Chavchavadze? Endowed by nature with exceptional gifts, assimilating alike the culture of the East and West, the Christian kingdom of the Caucasus achieved a high degree of refinement and enlightenment at a very early date; and, despite the fierce blasts of war that have swept ceaselessly over the land, the light of literature has been kept alive.” The following year, it was Prince Ilia Chavchavadze who invited Marjory and his mother to Georgia. It is said that this time the grateful population greeted them at Tbilisi railway station. Poets recited specially dedicated poems, choirs and bands played and sang in honor of the dear guest. When in Tbilisi Marjory and her mother stayed at the London Hotel in Atonely Street, in the very centre and heart of the city. Tbilisi possessed wonderful buildings, squares, arcades and a newly built imposing Opera House in the pseudo Moorish-style. Marjory would learn that the first Opera House was founded in Tbilisi in 1851. In 1856 Alexandre Dumas attended one of the Opera performances in Tbilisi and described its hall as one of the most beautiful and rich interiors ever seen. Unfortunately, a sudden fire destroyed that building and a new one was built
A statue of Oliver and Marjory Wardrop in the "Oliver Wardrop Garden" in Tbilisi
twenty years later. Tbilisi attracted Marjory not only as a multinational city and an important centre of South Caucasia but also as a town of exotic landscape. Here, colorful streets stretched from lowland to lofty places or mountains and rocks, from where they proudly overlooked the River Mtkvari (Kura). Modern architectural tendencies – Classicism, Neo-Moorish, and Art Nouveau had been already established in the city but buildings with European facades looked absolutely oriental from behind, where ornate loggias with stained glass and overhanging carved wooden balconies, as if made of lace, fitting spi-
ral stairs, looked over gorgeous courtyards or patios. Tbilisi was the place where the West and the East met each other. Feted by the host, Marjory wholeheartedly enjoyed banquets, receptions, meetings. She kindly reciprocated the cordial welcome by wearing the Georgian national costume on several occasions. Continued in next week’s GT and online at georgiatoday.ge *Innes Merabishvili is Chair of Translatology with MA and PhD programs at Tbilisi State University
Georgia at the 72nd Berlin International Film Festival
A
t the Berlin International Film Festival, within the framework of the European Film Market, the National Film Center will present the Georgian pavilion for the 17th time this year, where the team of the National Film Center, under the leadership of the director of the film center Gaga Chkheidze, will represent the local film industry. Due to the pandemic, the 72nd Berlin International Film Festival will be held in a hybrid format. The European Film Market will be held on February 10-17, and all traditional sections of the festival, including the international competition, panorama, forum and retrospective films, will be screened in Berlin cinemas on February 10-20. The National Film Center will present four Georgian full-length feature films at the European Film Market: “Samurai Resting Time” – Director Levan Tutberidze (Georgia) February 13, 12:40, Virtual Cinema 3;
“Beautiful Helen” – Director Giorgi Ovashvili (Georgia, France, Turkey) Feb-
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GEORGIA TODAY
EDITORIAL DEPARTMENT:
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ruary 14, 15:00, Virtual Cinema 23; “Lotto – a parable at the seaside city”
Journalists: Ana Dumbadze, Vazha Tavberidze, Tony Hanmer, Emil Avdaliani, Nugzar B. Ruhadze, Michael Godwin, Ketevan Skhirtladze Photographer: Aleksei Serov
– directed by Zaza Khalvashi (Georgia, Lithuania) February 15, 12:40, Virtual
Website Manager/Editor: Katie Ruth Davies Layout: Misha Mchedlishvili Webmaster: Sergey Gevenov Circulation Managers: David Kerdikashvili, David Djandjgava
Cinema 6; “Otar’s Death” – Director Ioseb (Soso) Bliadze (Georgia, Germany, Lithuania) February 11, 11:15, Virtual Cinema 17; In addition to film screenings, the Georgian Virtual Pavilion will host online meetings with sales agents, distributors and representatives of Cannes, Montpellier, Karlovy Vary, Cottbus and other international film festivals. The online meetings with the representatives of the Film Center will be attended by 10 Georgian producers who were selected via a competition to participate in the Berlin Film Festival: Keti Kalandarishvili, Keti Danelia, Rati Oneli, Tiko Nadirashvili, Tekla Machavariani, Vladimir Kacharava, Elia Datanargashvili and others. This year, at the section of the Berlin Film Festival called “Books at the Berlinale”, created for the future screening of various literary works, a new novel by the famous Georgian writer Nino Kharatishvili – “The Lack of Light” will be presented.
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