Cold Calling

DANNY WILLIAMS ‘COLD CALLING’

Each month our special correspondent Danny Williams* replies to a reader’s letter...

U VALUES? THE U FACTOR IS THE ONE TO WATCH…

“We are a home improvement installer based in the West Midlands; we install kitchens, bathrooms but still our biggest business is windows and doors… and sales have been great. We have thrived since mid-2020 and not stopped since. As I write, Boris has been toppled and we await the fascinating process of finding a successor, and there are signs that things are quietening down, though in normal years that would be expected as people take their holidays. I am usually pretty good at calling it, but with everything else going on, I have no idea what to expect from the autumn onwards. What’s your take Danny?”

LM West Midlands

Let me share a secret with you LM: although for reasons best known to the editor of this excellent organ I continue to answer readers’ letters, even after several years of doing so, my qualifications to do so might best be described as a twitch in the bladder, although 36 years of flogging, making, fitting windows, doors and glass units might contribute something towards that twitch. But neither I, nor my bladder, have ever experienced the run of events that we are experiencing currently, or in the past two years to be honest. And it is just getting weirder and less comprehensible by the day.

But this is what my instincts are telling me: Sales have been falling off steadily amongst my loyal and hardworking installer customer-base, from early spring. But that represents a levelling up of a different sort to the desperate government scheme designed to cling on to the Northern red vote. For me, sales have rationalised, falling from completely nuts at times, to something akin to being decent, but manageable. But we have to look closely at the detail: turnover has continued to increase, but units have fallen, simply due to the spiralling price rises in every single thing that we sell. Nothing has escaped. A change in attitude within the marketplace, an acceptance that costs are out of control, has resulted in the wind spilling from the sales of those who would normally fight over every single penny: even the most die-hard of them accept that it isn’t Danny trying to rip them off, but a global problem that even the best of us cannot do anything about. In turn, most have realised that unless they too pass on the increases to their homeowner punters, then they will head for certain failure as the slimmest of margins become severe losses on every job. How many years have I been beating this drum? What we have currently then LM, is a correction in the market, a welcome steadying, helped of course by supplies becoming generally stable, if not in cost then certainly availability. We all desperately needed that. But of course, the ongoing chaos in world events have now been exacerbated by the continuing debacle that is British politics…collective sigh. By the time this issue hits the streets it will all have changed again, perhaps even with a new PM in place. However, the Boris meltdown has actually come at a convenient time with the Summer Recess and all, taking much of the sting out of it. And that is just as true of home improvement sales. Although the past couple of years have barely missed a beat, we are allowed out now and taking advantage of being able to roam the planet almost without restriction by Covid, though with flight cancellations and rail strikes stepping in the fill that void. But that doesn’t stop us trying to get away…. So sales have also taken their annual summer holiday. Will they restart again in the autumn, that is the question… in my humble opinion, I do not believe that politics, as such, will have any real effect either way. What will, is the fear of impending energy increases, which have crept in almost undetected as we entered the spring and summer months, when of course, most of us have our heating off. The thermostats will be progressively turned up in the autumn with the increases in energy costs, for many people, representing the repayments that they might have made for a set of windows and a new front door. Homeowners will be mindful – and fearful - of that and I believe that this, together with sky-high motoring costs and the inflated costs of everything, further spreading fear. And when fear spreads amongst homeowners, confidence goes out the windows that they were hoping to replace. And this will affect the mass market for replacement windows and doors with even higher earners will be hit as the energy bills in their nice 5 bed mock-Georgians, will be impacted pro rata. And then we have the U Factor: Ukraine. The suffering imposed upon the innocents of Ukraine is horrific and made worse by being driven by actions that are arbitrary and contrived. Even considering the ‘fake’ news from either side, the invasion was unwarranted. And the effect on the world from what is after all, a previously unremarkable area in global terms, has been catastrophic. And there seems to be no end in sight. Until there is, the conflict will play on our collective minds, in business terms creating more pressure on confidence. And let’s pray there is no escalation. There will be some bright spots: employment will remain high and there is still money about and especially amongst older homeowners. For these, at Pioneer we have worked for years to steer our product offer from bog-standard white casements , whilst Danny watchers out there will know that I have put a stake in the ground with the distribution of Gerda, a range of steel and ali resi doors, aimed squarely at middle-market buyers though at nicely competitive prices. We sell a lot of Deceuninck flush sash now, most of them coloured, which again satisfies the higher middle market. I expect our sales to remain steady, though not spectacular, in this sector.

Whilst I find the politics of the moment fascinating and nauseating in almost equal measure, we can but hope for a Churchilean figure that will lead us out of the wilderness; whatever colour your politics might be, a steady period without scandal would be nice. Sadly however, whilst neither Rishi nor Liz are likely to lead us into a Brave New World of positive government, the brown stuff that is out of our control, will continue to define our lives anyway. At which point LM, you are thinking ‘I wish I hadn’t asked!’. And fair play to you, so I will try to end on a brighter note: there is little threat to steady employment; those with money will hold on to it and actually, likely increase it; and we will never lose our extraordinary desire as a nation of homeowners, to lavish attention on our castles. Improving our homes improves our lives, directly but also emotionally. When the crap is hitting the fan, we make ourselves feel better by investing in what for the majority of us is the centre of our financial galaxy. We got through Covid by doing just that. And we will get through whatever fate decides next to throw at us, by responding the same way. But it might be a little more bumpy before we get there.