The Climate Adaptation Center CAC Presents The Rate Of Warming Has Changed!
2
Since 1950: A Message – No Listeners
2021
Florida Climate Forecast Conference 3
It’s All About GHGs We Put Into The Air
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Greenhouse Gases
Water Vapor – 0.4 % CO₂ – now 0.04% = 1 CH₄ – now 0.002% = 50x NO₂ – now 0.0003% = 300x Trace Gases Increasing Fast 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 5
CO₂ At A Record – What Do You Expect?
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Emission By Sector Sectors
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Pick Your Poison
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Methane CH4
50 X as powerful as a GHG
A KEY to lowering the rate of climate warming fast
Human Impacts on CH4
from
20%
Agriculture 30% from Oil & Gas Production 50% from Natural Sources2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 11
Methane – 50 X The Impact of CO2 Oil & Gas Production
2021
Florida Climate Forecast Conference 12
Corn & Feedlots – A Lethal Combo
Look Similar To The GHG Curve?
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Why? – A Double Whammy By Humankind
36% of all cropland (deforestation) FEEDS LIVESTOCK
Massive forest have been diminished to grow corn feed for livestock
in feedlots
short
up a
Mostly
This
circuits natural GHG sequestration setting
negative feedback loop - Forest and grasslands take up GHG and release oxygen - Feedlots create methane and other GHG preventing natural recycling 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 15
The Great Warming!
Unprecedented addition of GHGs
Still increasing, FAST Global
Temperatures +1.2°C/2.2°F 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 16
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Increasing Warming Rates Are A Big Deal!
Event probability is proportional to RATE of climate warming.
Disruptions have exploded with
need
● Extreme
● Climate
a doubling of the rate ● To reduce rising risks, GHG emissions
to be rapidly reduced 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 18
The Rate Of Climate Warming
Has doubled since 1990! Rate has gone from .16°C to .32°C per decade
At this rate the temperature rise = 1.5°C Threshold in 2030!
And 2°C Threshold by 2050!
WHY DOES IT MATTER?
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Rapid
= Big Increase Extreme Events
almost
by
Warming
2°C warming is
assured
2050 ● Heat waves like the ones in the Pacific Northwest will occur 14 times more often than they did historically ● Severe droughts previously once a decade will happen 2-3 X crop failures & water emergencies – Lake Mead, China, EU ● Extreme rainfall - 70% more frequently - NYC 2021 ● Hurricanes impacts are rising fast with more Major Storms with Storm Surges, wind damage and flooding. Ian 2022 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 20
At
Climate Disruptions
2.0°C –
● Coral reefs are likely to decline by 99% ● More Red Tides & other algae blooms ● Higher sea levels Faster ● Faster Biodiversity Loss ● 25% of US Infrastructure will be subject to flooding at 2°C 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 21
One Hundred Thousand Years
The last time the Earth was this warm was about 100,000 years ago
What did it look like then
Seas were 20 - 30 feet higher
NYC was under water & so was much of Florida Washington DC & Boston too
The climate warming baked into our system is irreversible from a Sea Level Rise point of view – SLR will go on for hundreds of years
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Hurricanes!
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Hurricanes
The average number of named storms has risen from 12 to 14 when comparing 1960 -1990 to 1990 - 2020
Average hurricane season - 7 hurricanes and 3 Major Hurricanes 2021 & 2022, 51 storms! NO SEQUEL -Stronger too! Since 1851 - 37 Cat 5 of storms And 141 - Cat 4’s The greatest storms on earth!
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More Storms, Slower, More Intense
Storms
storms
are warming. Deep warm water
rocket
intense
storms are spinning up at record rates. Explosive intensification where they are tropical storms one day and Cat
or
More
- oceans
=
fuel for
More
–
4
5 the next day Slower Moving – Arctic warming 2X - 3X faster = weaker jet streams. Harry, Dorian. Ian 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 27
The Forecast: Category 3 - 5 Storms Baseline Now 3 2020 = 7, 2021 = 4, 2022 = 2 YTD Perhaps A Double By 2030 3 – 4 By 2040 3 – 5 By 2050 4 - 6 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 28
Since Satellites
2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 29 Cat 5 Cat 4 19601980 7 16 19812000 5 21 20002021 14 Double! 32 Double!
Human Health
Air Pollution
Air pollution is killing about 500K per year ++Forest Fires
Carbon particles & pollutants in smoke aggravate chronic heart & lung diseases, asthma, bronchitis, and worsen
–
diabetes Forest Fire Smoke is taking a big toll – at least 33K per yr. Some fleeing the summer smoke in the Western USA Worldwide – Climate Refugees on the rise 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 30
Sea Level Rise
Sea Levels have already risen 9 inches since 1950
The rate of rise is increasing Some very serious issues will arrive by 2035
flooding
Below 3 feet ASL the East Coast will experience frequent
Big Recommendation: Stop Development on any properties below 4 to 5 feet above sea level now 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 31
Think Climate Warming Isn’t Now?
THE INTENNSITIFING RISK OF CLIMATE WARMING
How’s this impacting you? Insurance premiums are out of control! Many can’t get insurance i.e., over 250,000 in CA canceled, Florida too! $50B in insured losses due to fire since 2016 40 Climate Disruptions in US in 2020 & 2021 over $1B Each and now Ian $100B+ Cost of Climate Refugees isn’t being calculated BUT… 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 32
Or
Get To Net Zero By 2050
Face Temperature 1.5°C 2.0°C 3.0°C Ave. Drought (mo.) 2 4 10 % Ice Free Arctic (mo.) 3 16 64 Half Habitat Loss % Mammals 4 8 41 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 33
Sea Level Rise
Storm Surge Extreme Precipitation
These Are The Issues Through 2050
Flooding, More Often, More Severe with time
More
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Sea Level Rise Forecast
2030 Moon Wobble + 2040 Wobble recedes 2050 But SLR rate increase Total 2021 Florida Climate Forecast Conference 35 2 in 5 in 4 in 11 in
Estate will begin reflecting risk
Insurance Premiums going up
Phase Out in low lying areas
Costs will go up the longer we wait to get going
BUT…
Economy ● Real
●
● Insurance
● Infrastructure
….
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Economy
Adapt & Mitigate – The Largest Economic Opportunity Maybe EVER!
To get there… Governments need to get in front and not just react…and soon. Plan, zone, building codes, and move from traditional geography to regional cooperation Private Enterprise will have to implement with lots of funding from goverments and innovate, fund and deliver products and for the CLIMATE ECONOMY Academe – new focus on the Grand Challenge of Climate Warming with tomorrow’s climate workers, focused research and entrepreneurship & science
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Natural Catastrophe Losses Rising & Here to Stay
• In 2020 prices Natural Catastrophe losses rose from $71B for 2011-2015 to over $90B for 20162020 an increase of about 27%
• Natural Catastrophes for 2021 are estimated to be over $100B
• So far in 2022 estimates are well over 150B
• During this time property rates have been rapidly increasing last few years after years of slow rising rates
• In addition S&P Global estimates that the insurance industry is under capitalized by 33% 50% for climate change risks
So What does all this mean? • Increased losses, less capacity Increased Costs • Increased focus on risk selection by insurers; riskier exposures harder to find coverage • Drive to Invest in better Infrastructure Decreased Losses and Costs
How much damage will climate change cause?
et
Kahn
al. (2019) Globalization Institute Working Paper 365.
Economic Summary
• Economic growth outlook: Uncertain, but recent history is most consistent with the low end of expert opinion and IPCC scenarios.
• Climate change outlook: We are probably headed for 2-3 degrees C warming by 2100.
– Not 4-5 degrees (RCP8.5)!
• Economic damages from climate change: Rising risks from economic damage, climate migration, switching costs, and strategic climate feuds
Highly unequal impacts by country, region & economic strata
Amazing economic opportunity if threat is perceived as opportunity.
• Energy agencies have serially underestimated pace of energy transition and drops in renewable prices. Multipliers from building clean infrastructure are unknown, but could be high.
Therefore, transitioning might be better for the economy than we think!
–
–
–
This Isn’t A Problem For Someone Else!
Climate Change Isn’t Coming Its Here, Time To Get Going!
Government is slow and its going to hurt if they don’t speed up
Climate Czar at the highest levels in each government entity
Every project from now on MUST have a Climate Resilience Factor
Bridges and roads, schools, public and new private buildings
Real Estate Developments, retrofitting existing buildings, beachmanagement, evacuation centers, distributed power
Process for all streamlined, optimized for speedy completion
ESG MAY be an important component of the change we need but it’s too vague,easy to manipulate, not based on standardized sound measurement systemswith accountability metrics & post results rewards & consequences.
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