“Are Things Really that Bad?�
GIC 27th Annual Monetary and Trade Conference April 2009 Dr. Robert A. Eisenbeis Chief Monetary Economist Cumberland Advisors
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Introduction and Outline of Talk • Press would have you believe that we are on the brink of another Great Depression • How do we compare with previous recessions? • How do we compare with the Great Depression?
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 2
• Real GDP • • • •
Personal Consumption Corporate Profits Investment Employment
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 3
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 4
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 5
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 6
• Real GDP
• Personal Consumption • Corporate Profits • Investment • Employment
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 7
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 8
• Real GDP • Personal Consumption
• Corporate Profits • Investment • Employment
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 9
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 10
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 11
• Real GDP • Personal Consumption • Corporate Profits
• Investment • Employment
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 12
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 13
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 14
• • • •
Real GDP Personal Consumption Corporate Profits Investment
• Employment
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 15
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 16
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 17
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 18
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 19
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 20
614 Landis Avenue, Vineland, NJ 08360 800-257-7013 www.cumber.com
Chart 21