Ford

DECONSTRUCTING THE BRICS: DYNAMICS IN THE POST CRISIS PERIOD August 18, 2009

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick

1

TOPICS TODAY •

Automotive industry in the BRICS

•

Long-term growth prospects in the post-crisis period

•

Memo: Mature market performance with U.S. focus

2

BRICS: KEY AUTO SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS Fundamentals differentiate these markets Series

Units

Brazil Russia

India

China

Population Today

Mils

194

141

1,130

1,322

GDP

2007$ Bils

1,314

1,291

1,171

3,280

GDP per Capita

2007$ PPP

9,456

14,770

2,737

5,337

Vehicle Stock

Mils

26

34

14

40

Per 1,000 Pop

Units

184

281

18

38

New Vehicle Sales

2008 Mils

2.9

3.2

2.0

9.4

2003 – 2007 Growth

% (a.r.)

12

15

15

14

3

POPULATION GROWTH 1995 TO 2008 Annual % Change 2.0 1.6

1.5

1.0

1.0 0.6

0.5

Brazil

Russia

India

China

0.0 (0.5)

(0.5)

(1.0) 1995

1998

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2001

2004

2007 4

2008 NOMINAL GDP $ Billions

1,573

Brazil

4,402

China

8,861

Russia 1,677

India

1,210 Source: International Monetary Fund

5

GDP GROWTH Annual % Change 15

10

9.0 7.3 5.6 5.1

5

0

(5)

(10) 1995

Brazil 1997

Russia

India

2001

2003

1999

Source: International Monetary Fund

China 2005

2007 6

GDP GROWTH Brazil Real GDP

% 12.0

% chg yoy

Russia Real GDP

10

8.0

5

4.0 0.0

(1.5) (3.3)

(4.0) GDP YoY GDP Annual. QoQ

(8.0) (12.0)

12/05

(%yoy)

(10)

12/06

12/07

India Real GDP GDP Pct. Chg. yoy

0% 01

02

03

China Real GDP GDP (Q1): 6.1 CPI (Q1): (0.6)

16 12 8 4 0 (4) Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09

4%

00

(10.9)

12/08

GDP (Q1): 5.8% CPI (Q1): 9.4% WPI (Q1): 2.4%

8%

(5)

(15) 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08

(16.0) 12/04

12%

0

04

Real GDP

05

06

07

08

09

GDP 7

INCOME PER CAPITA PPP 2007$ 16,000

14,770

14,000 12,000 10,000

9,456

8,000 5,337

6,000 4,000

2,737

2,000 0 Brazil

Russia

India

China 8

CHINA POPULATION & GDP BY REGION Heilongjiang

Jilin Xinjiang

Liaoning

Beijing Gansu

Inner Mongolia Ningxia

Tianjin Hebei Shanxi Shandong

Qinghai

Hubei

Sichuan

J

Shaanxi Henan Tibet

Jiangsu Shanghai

Anhui

i

Chongqing Guizhou Yunnan

Hunan

Zhejiang i

Jiangxi Fujian

Tier 1 Taiwan

Guangxi

Guangdong

Tier 2 Tier 3

Hainan

population (mil.)

2007

2018

Driving-age population (mil.)

2007

2018

GDP per capita @ 2005 USD 2007

National

1,322

1,052

5,088

Tier 1

366

299

8,463

Tier 2

491

395

4,487

Tier 3

464

358

2,924

2018

9

INDIA POPULATION & GDP BY REGION

GDP per Capita > $4,000 $2,500 < GDP per Capita < $4,000 GDP per Capita < $2,500

population (mil.)

2007

2018

Driving-age population (mil.)

2007

2018

GDP per capita @ 2005 USD 2007

1,130

770

2,584

Tier 1

233

158

4,279

Tier 2

353

241

2,974

Tier 3

544

371

1,606

National

2018

10

2007 VEHICLE STOCK Mils.

45

40

40 34

35 30

26

25 20 14

15 10 5 0 Brazil

Russia

India

Source: Ward’s Automotive Group, Vehicles in Operation in 2007

China 11

VEHICLE STOCK GROWTH Mils.

1995

45

2007 40

40 34

35 30

26

25 20

23

15

14

15

10

10

7

5 0 % Change (a.r.)

Brazil 4.4

Russia 3.2

Source: Ward’s Automotive Group

India 6.4

China 11.9

12

2008 NEW VEHICLE SALES Mils.

10

9.4

9 8 7 6 5 4 3

2.9

3.2 2.0

2 1 0 Brazil Source: IHS Global Insight

Russia

India

China 13

VEHICLE SALES GROWTH Mils.

1995

10

2008*

9.4

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

3.2

2.9

2.0

1.7 0.8

1

1.5

0.6

0 % Change (a.r.)

Brazil

Russia

India

China

4.6

12.2

10.6

16.5

*Source: IHS Global Insight

14

VEHICLE OWNERSHIP RATES ARE VERY LOW Vehicles per 1,000 Driving Age Population 300

281

250 200

184

150 100 38

50

18

0 Brazil

Russia

India

China 15

TAKE-OFF STAGE OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

•

Importance of population and per capita incomes

•

Less direct effect from deeper capital markets

•

Focus on increasing share of discretionary purchases

16

POPULATION GROWTH 2008 TO 2018 Annual % Change 2.0 1.5

1.4

1.0

0.7 0.5

0.5 0.0 (0.5)

(0.6)

(1.0) 2008

2011

Brazil Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Russia

2014 India

2017

China 17

VEHICLE OWNERSHIP RATES AND PER CAPITA GDP % Ownership Limit Realized 120 100

U.S.

Europe

80 60 Russia

40 Brazil

20

China India

0 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

GDP PPP per Capita ( In 000s of 2005$)

45 18

POST CRISIS PERIOD •

Highly varied among these emerging markets

•

Potential growth driven by investment trends and policy

•

Institutional backdrop and innovation are the linchpins

•

Energy, environment, water, and steel are strategic properties

Implications •

Need for country-specific research and investment thesis

•

Spent SWFs and reserve cushions

•

Limits to disintermediation

•

Policy watch

19

DOWNTURN HISTORY – U.S. NEW VEHICLE SALES U.S New Vehicle Sales Downturns Peak-to-Trough % Decline % Decline from Peak 80 60 40 20

71

In 2005, U.S. new vehicle sales were 17.5 million units As of Q1 2009, sales are 45% from the 2005 level

21

24

1988

1973

32

33

36

1978

1950

1955

45

46

48

2005

1937

1941

5

0 2000

1929

Year of Vehicle Sales Peak Note: Based on annual data

20

U.S. NEW LIGHT VEHICLE SALES Steep decline after September 2008

Mil. Units SAAR 19 17 15 13 11

11.2

11.6

9.2

9 7 5 70

73

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97

00

03

06

09 21

U.S. NEW RETAIL VEHICLE SALES Seizing up of credit markets dampened demand to historic lows Mil. Units SAAR 14 12.8

12

11.0

10.6

10 8.8

8.7

8.3

9.2

8.8 8.2

8

7.7

7.6

7.8

8.1

8.5

6 4 2007 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug 2008 2009 22 Source: JD Power and Associates (08/19/09)

U.S. HOUSING AND AUTOS Decoupling in the period of housing financial innovation

Light Vehicle Sales and New Home Sales Mils.

Mils Light Vehicle Sales (Left Scale)

20

1.4 1.2

16

1.0

12

0.8

New Hom e Sales (Right Scale)

9.8 0.6

8

0.4

4

0.4

0.2 0.0

0

2000

2003

Note: Based on 6-month moving average

2006

2009

23

U.S. HOUSING MARKET Current and Past Housing Cycles Indexed at Peak = 100

Home Inventories 14

100 Average of Pre-1980 Housing Downturns and Recoveries

80

Months' Supply Current Selling Rates

12 Long-Run Averages New & Existing : 6 - 7 Months

10

9.4 8.8

61.9 60

8

Existing Homes

54.5 40

1981 Downturn

6

Current 25.6

20

4

74% Below Peak 2

New Homes

Great Depression Low 0 Peak

8 16 24 32 40 Months after Housing Starts Peak

0 2000

2003

2006

2009 24

U.S. AUTO FUNDAMENTALS TODAY New Nominal Vehicle Prices

Auto Inventories

% 2

'000 Units 800

1.2

735

1 0.5

0 502 400

463

(1)

415

(2)

296

(3)

137

(4) 2002

0 Ford

GM Jul-08

Chrysler

2003

2004

2005

Nom MOM % Chg

Jul-09

2006

2007

2008

2009

Nom YOY % Chg

"Good Tim e to Buy" V e hicle Inde x

A u c ti o n P ri c e s %

%*

( Y e a r O v e r Y e a r % Ch a n g e ) 80

10 6 .1

5

60

0

50

(5)

40

(10) (15) 2002

70

70

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Ma n h e im A u c tio n Pr ic e s

2008

2009

30 2002

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 * % of Res pondents s ay ing it is a good time to buy

Source: U of M Consumer Sentiment Index

25

SUMMARY •

BRICS have potential to grow at vastly different rates

•

Building blocks for auto sector are in place

•

Long-term growth prospects are positive – Contingent on key factors of investment and policy trends

•

U.S. auto sales appear to be stabilizing – Financial crisis caused a steep downturn – Fundamentals for vehicle buyer are gradually improving

26