Partner, Montrose Lane Ventures
Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research
Faculty Fellow, Northwestern University McCormick School of Engineering
Mark P. Mills
Machines that facilitate finance vs create wealth
Tractors Tabulators Crypto capitalization ($ trillion) 3 2 1 2016 2022 Global GDP ($ trillion) 100 80 60 40 2000 2022
Technology & the means of exchange
2 $50 B global “mobile payments” → $500 B by 2030
2000 2018 Trends in all U.S. noncash payments Share all U.S. business conducted online 2000 2023 30% 20% 10% 0 40 30 20 10 $Trillion
Technology & the means of productivity
Technology remains the dominant engine of growth. Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel Prize Economics
Model T: 1924
25 years
Boeing 707: 1957
25 years
IBM Mainframe: 1964
20 years
Exodus Datacenter: 1995
Economic inflection: Information services
Economic inflection: Transportation services
A.I. information engines: ‘Micro’ chip
Cerebras WSE-2: 2022 25 years
Datacenter, Finland 1950 2022 U.S. private investment IT equip & software ($ billion) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Each datacenter square foot:
Same as skyscraper to build
5x more rent
100x more power 5,000 enterprise-class datacenters vs 1,500 skyscrapers
Information infrastructure
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A.I.-enabled mobile robots: Long time coming
Unimate
Spot Mini 2022 Jimmy Fallon Show
1961 Johnny Carson Show
Million shipped 7 5 3 1
U.S. employment by occupational classification
1983 2016 Millions employed 60 50 40 30 20 10
A.I. & autonomy just in time
Ratio: U.S. jobs available/unemployed
10
Working
populations shrinking Tomorrow? “Optimus” Today ChatGPT
age
From ”irrational exuberance” to a signal of growth?
U.S. Productivity Growth Rate Reverts to Mean?
AI Hype
$100B → $1,500B by 2030
First Robot IPO Agility Robotics
