Roehl, Wes Prof. Dec 0704

Implications and Reactions in the Tourism & Hospitality Industry Wesley S. Roehl School of Tourism & Hospitality Management Temple University 3 October 2003

Impact of 9-11 on world tourism  As reported by the WTO, international arrivals declined in 01 for the first time since 82 



Worldwide, 02 showed growth in arrivals over both 00 and 01 However, US international arrivals were down in both 01 and 02

 International Labour Organization estimated real growth loss in travel & tourism industry employment worldwide of 8.6% in 01-02 W. S. Roehl, Temple University

Short-term response to 9-11

by US consumers  Responses reported in samples of the US public 

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Post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) observed both in those with direct and in those with indirect exposure to terrorism Changed or canceled trips / travel / vacations 

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Reported by 9% to 10% of the public in surveys conducted between 9/13/01 and 6/02

Avoided crowds 

Reported by 8% to 14% of the public in surveys conducted 10/01

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Impact on US tourism industries ď ˇ Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel and Tourism Satellite Account

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Tourism-related sales of tourism industries Source: BEA

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Trends in direct tourism sales vary by industry Selected industry

Quarters of negative growth since 9/11/01

Comments

Travel agency services

8/8

-8.5% in 01, -9.5% in 02

Air transportation

5/8

large Q declines: immediate -47%, -45%, later -21%, -18%

Hotels & lodging places

5/8

-4.6% in 01, +1.1% in 02

Amusement & recreation services

2/8

immediate & small Q: -.8%, -.9%; +6.5% in 01

Eating & drinking places

1/8

+4.4% in 01, +5.4% in 02

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Trends also vary by region  Federal Reserve Beige Book  

Variation in overall tourism activity by district and Variation in trends by industry

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Support for security changes Source: Harris Interactive for Time / CNN (10/01)

Measure . . .

% support

Require passengers to check in 1 hour before departure

95

Require passengers to answer questions about travel plans

87

Eliminate curbside luggage check in

82

Require passengers to check in 2 hours before departure

67

Raising airplane ticket prices by $50

64

Profiling by age, race, and gender to identify potentially suspicious passengers

57

Raising airplane ticket prices by $100

30

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Long-term responses to heightened airport security

Source: Dept. of Transportation Omnibus Survey

 Air travelers’ confidence in passenger screeners’ ability to keep air travel secure from individuals with hostile intentions April 02

September 02

54% satisfied or very satisfied

37% rate 4 or 5 where 5 = very confident

August 03 35% rate either “a great deal of confidence” or “total confidence”

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Long-term responses to heightened airport security ď ˇ Air travelers’ satisfaction with overall experience at passenger screening checkpoint April 02

September 02

12% unsatisfied 76% satisfied

07% unsatisfied 66% satisfied

August 03 06% unsatisfied 80% satisfied

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Long-term responses to heightened airport security ď ˇ Effect of passenger screening procedures on air travel September 02 Less inclined to travel by air Had no effect on air travel More inclined to travel by air

August 03 24% 70% 05%

Less inclined to travel by air Had no effect on air travel More inclined to travel by air

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24% 68% 08%

Acceptance of selected security procedures Source: TU-STHM survey of internet travel information seekers (Fall 02)

Acceptance of Selected Biometric Security Procedures

Security Procedure Sky Marshals Fingerprints Background Check Face Scan Eye Recognition National ID Card Voice Recognition Profiles Status Quo 3-Hour Wait 1 Valid percent (%) 2

Not at all Acceptable1 2.5 11.6 11.8 13.5 15.1 15.8 16.4 23.7 50.2 60.5

Total Somewhat to Very Acceptable 97.4 88.4 88.2 86.5 84.9 84.2 83.6 76.3 49.9 39.6

Mean2

N

3.394 2.931 2.792 2.838 2.813 2.840 2.672 2.436 1.710 1.550

552 551 550 550 550 551 548 549 550 552

Mean where not at all acceptable = 1, somewhat acceptable = 2, acceptable = 3, and very acceptable = 4.

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Perceived effectiveness of selected security procedures Perceived Effectiveness of Selected Biometric Security Procedures

Security Procedure Sky Marshals Fingerprints Background Check Face Scan Eye Recognition National ID Card Voice Recognition Profiles Status Quo 3-Hour Wait 1 Valid percent (%) 2

Total Total Very Ineffective Very Effective or Ineffective1 or Effective 6.5 81.8 8.5 78.7 13.1 68.8 14.5 63.3 16.8 59.5 21.8 59.3 26.5 42.4 39.9 34.6 61.8 11.8 61.0 10.8

Mean2 1.880 2.022 2.179 2.358 2.460 2.515 2.784 3.113 3.854 3.827

Mean where very effective = 1, effective = 2, neither effective or ineffective = 3, ineffective = 4, and very ineffective = 5.

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N 541 541 541 542 543 538 541 541 540 543

Multiple threats to tourism Source: TU-STHM nationwide survey (5/03)

 On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being Not Worried At All and 5 being Very Worried, please tell me how worried you are about each of the following . . .  How worried are you about SARS - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome?  How worried are you about terrorism?  How worried are you about the economy?  How worried are you about the potential for bankruptcy and interruption of service by commercial airlines?

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Multiple threats to tourism Mean level of concern

Percentage “very worried�

economy

3.09

22%

terrorism

2.62

13%

airline bankruptcy

2.37

09%

SARS

2.28

11%

Threat

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Threats and travel plans  Level of worry about any of these threats varies across population subgroups 

For example, the level of worry about terrorism . . . 





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Varied by age, with older individuals much more likely to report they were “not at all worried” than were younger individuals Varied by income, with low income individuals more likely to respond that they were “very worried” than were others Varied by ethnicity, with African-Americans more likely to say they were “very worried” than were whites Varied by sex, with men less worried then women

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Issues for the tourism industry  Consumer impacts and behaviors  

PTSD in those directly and indirectly exposed Impact from government and industry adjustments 

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Support for travel security enhancement but effectiveness and inconvenience are issues

Shift in transportation modes, destination choice, and from travel to other discretionary activities W. S. Roehl, Temple University

Issues for the tourism industry  Consumer impacts and behaviors 

Impacts vary across population segments 

Need to address concerns of impacted groups

 Industry impacts   

Vary by specific industrial sector Vary by location Avoid attributing all post 9-11 changes to 9-11 W. S. Roehl, Temple University