Global Asia Institute
Global Interdependence Center – Global Conference Series 2009 Food and Water – Basic Challenges to International Stability Booth School of Business, Singapore Thursday, 19 November 2009
“Living Cities”: New Insights for Water and Food Security for Rapidly Urbanizing Asia Seetharam Kallidaikurichi E. Director, Institute of Water Policy Visiting Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Director, Global Asia Institute
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior permission in writing from the Institute of Water Policy and Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
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About the Institute of Water Policy To help leaders address “water challenges� in the region 2
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Vision / Mission of IWP Vision • Increase the profile of water security in national policy agenda in the region • Leading research centre in Asia for effective water policies • Centre of excellence for training leaders and professionals for water governance and management
Mission • Build and strengthen a water policy research network in the region • Offer training, water policy advise, and consulting based on a dynamic and relevant policy research agenda 3
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Research Focus • The Medium Term Research Program focuses on areas like: – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Structural, macro and long term water policy issues Emerging global trends affecting water policy Climate change and adaptation measures in the water sector Formal policy instruments for water management Water resources management Water policy and technology Water, poverty alleviation and environmental conservation Legislative, regulatory and institutional frameworks Infrastructure finance Conflict and collaborative governance for water Politics and planning of water policy Sustainability of water resource systems Inter-linkages between water, energy, and food policies 4
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Our Activities Conferences, Seminars • Singapore International Water Week, 2009 • “New” Thinking on Water Governance, 2007 • World Cities Summit 2010 IWP Research • Asian Water Indicators and Statistics • Water Governance Index • Dynamic Modeling of Water Policy Systems • Key Lessons Learnt and Good Practices in Water and Wastewater Management • Case Studies on Good Practices for Urban Water Management in Asia 5
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1. What does the world economic development, in reference to GDP in the last 50 years, tell us?
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GDP Per capita (Current US$) 1975-2005 45000
40000
35000
30000 Germany 25000
Japan Korea, Republic of
20000
Republic of Korea Singapore United States
15000
10000
5000
0 1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
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GDP and Urbanization 45000 2005 40000
GDP per capita (current US$)
35000
2000 2005
30000
Germany Japan
2005
Republic of Korea
1995 2000
2000
25000
1995 20000
United States 1990
1995
1990
1990
1985
15000
1985 10000
1985 1980
1980 1975
5000
45
50
Linear (Japan) 2000
Expon. (Republic of Korea) Linear (United States)
1995 1990
1975
1980
1975
0
1985
Linear (Germany)
2005
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Percentage Urban (%)
Data source: GDP per capita: UN-Data (Germany: Data prior to 1990 refer to the Federal Republic of Germany before unification for the following categories: agricultural production, balance of payments, trade, government finance, defense, monetary indicators, and tourism.) Percentage Urban: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unup
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Urbanization and GDP increase go together industrial productivity
+
GDP
urbanization
+
industry land requirements
+
+ +
Income growth
industry
+ -
+ urban employment opportunities
rural-urban migration -
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Urbanization Trends in Asian Countries 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50
India
40
Indones ia China
50
Germany Sweden
40
30
30
20
20
USA
10
10
0 0 1950
1950 1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2000
2050
10
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2. What else is needed to support GDP growth (and urbanization)?
How has the world performed in the last 25 years with Governance (measured by TI) and Human Development measured by HDI?
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Urbanization and GDP depend on Human Development, Good Governance
Urbanization
Urbanization
GDP Growth
Human development + Good Governance
GDP Growth
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3. What are the key messages – we will have more cities without choice, in the future. Depending on what policies we embrace, we will know whether we will have “choked cities” or “living cities”.
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The Emergence and Growth of Megacities Population (million) Tokyo Mexico City Bombay Sao Paulo New York Lagos Los Angeles Calcutta Shanghai Buenos Aires Dhaka Karachi Delhi Jakarta Osaka Metro Manila Beijing Rio de Janeiro Cairo
Tokyo Bombay Lagos Dhaka Sao Paulo Karachi Mexico City New York Jakarta Calcutta Delhi Metro Manila Shanghai Los Angeles Buenos Aires Cairo Istanbul Beijing Rio de Janeiro Osaka Tianjin Hyderabad Bangkok
19.8 18.1 18.1 17.8 16.6 13.4 13.1 12.9 12.9 12.6 12.3 11.8 11.7 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.6
1950
1975 New York 12.3
Source: United Nations 2004
2000
26.4 26.1 23.2 21.1 20.4 19.2 19.2 17.4 17.4 17.3 16.8 14.8 14.6 14.1 14.1 13.8 12.5 12.3 11.9 11.0 10.7 10.5 10.1
2015 Tokyo 19.8 New York 15.9 Shanghai 11.4 Mexico City 11.2 Sao Paulo 10.0
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Pace of Urbanization is Unprecedented Massive, unprecedented urbanization in Asia—especially the many small urban centers of less than 500,000 people—will present new types of water- and wastewater-related challenges that all countries will have to face.
Source: AWDO 2007, ADB
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Virtuous cycle – Living City
Vicious cycle – Choking city Lack of governance
Improved governance
Human development
GDP Increase
Predictable public policies
Efficient economy
Human misery
Economic stagnation
Random and politicized policies
Inefficiency
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4. What is the framework for living cities? Living CITIES
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Global Asia Institute Institute Global Asia industrial productivity
+
GDP
urban land area (km2)
+ + industry land requirements
+
+ available land for housing
+ +
industry +
housing price
+
-
+
-
urban employment opportunities
rural-urban migration
rural--urban migration
-
+
urban population
pollution
crowding
quality of life
-
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Competitiveness
Shelter
Infrastructure
Living CITIES Environment
Transport
Information
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C
Competitiveness is crucial for cities to be the engine of growth for the nation Commitment at local political administration is crucial to maintain competitiveness
Competitiveness IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2008
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
The Global Competitiveness Report 20082009 Š 2008 World Economic Forum
The Best Countries for Business 2009: Forbes Magazine
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Competitiveness 2009 Index of Economic Freedom: The Heritage Foundation, Wall Street Journal
Transparency International: 2008 Corruption Perceptions Index
Opacity Index: Milken Institute / Kurtzman Group (2008)
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
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I
Infrastructure of the cities must be efficient and affordable to achieve competitiveness Infrastructure should be improved and operated on commercial sustainability
Infrastructure The 2008 Human Development Index: UNDP
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
2009 Quality of Life Survey (City Infrastructure) : Mercer HR consulting
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T
Transport and communications should provide mobility,
be safe and be reliable for the cities to function effectively
Transport Doing Business Report 2009, World Bank
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Business Environment Ranking 2008
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
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I Information
Information is the key factor for good governance Transparency, low transaction costs through egovernment is a requirement
E-readiness rankings 2008: EIU & IBM Institute for Business Value
Global Information Technology Report 2008– 2009: World Economic Forum-Insead
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
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E
Environment i.e. when the quality of life, open space, and air quality are good, cities will be sustainable Cities have life‌
Environment 2009 Quality of Life Survey: Mercer HR consulting
Innovation Output Study 2008
Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
Personal Safety Index, Mercer HR (2008)
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S Shelter
Shelter i.e. availability and affordability of housing space through appropriate land use and housing policy and planning is a salient feature of a city with a vision
Cost of Living Index 2008: Mercer HR consulting
The 2008 Global Cities Index: A.T Kearney, Chicago Council of Global Affairs, FP
27 Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
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Living Cities become candidates for living in cities through leaders who ensure better “infrastructure” good “governance” Source: Seetharam, MAPES, 2006
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5. What are the crucial enabling factors for living cities: Effective Water and Sanitation services and food security. How have the Asian cities performed with respect to Water, sanitation and food security? What are the linkages between good governance and water and sanitation?
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Water utilities lose nearly half the water they produce Phnom Penh,
Jakarta,
Vientiane,
Johor,
Metro Cebu,
Cambodia
Indonesia
Lao PDR
Malaysia
Philippines
2007
2001
2005
2005
2005
Water Supply Coverage (%)
90
51
56
100
Water Availability (hours)
24
22
24
Non-Revenue Water (%)
6
51
Staff Per 1,000 Connections
4
0.32
Indicator
Operating Ratio #
Bangkok,
Ho Chi Minh,
Thailand
Vietnam
2007
2003
2005
55
100
89
72.9
24
20
24
24
24
28
37
27
4 **
34
43
5.3
8
2.1
8
2.6 @
3.1
5.3
0.8
0.93
0.71
0.76
0.85
0.68
0.97
# Annual Operation and Maintenance cost/ Annual Revenue
@ "Staff per 1,000 accounts" for Singapore
** "Unaccounted for Water" for Singapore
Sources: ADB and the utilities
Singapore
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Water utilities deliver on average 4 hours per day Indicator
Ahmedabad
Amritsar
Bangalore
Bhopal
Chandigarh
Chennai
Coimbatore
Indore
74.5
75.7
92.9
83.4
100
89.3
76.1
77.3
2
11
4.5
1.5
12
5
3
0.75
Unaccounted for Water (%)
na
57
45
na
39
17
41
na
Staff Per 1,000 Connections
2.2
4.8
5.2
20.7
8.6
13.3
4
18.7
1.43
1.36
0.8
2.82
1.36
0.44
0.82
5.33
Water Supply Coverage (%)
Water Availability (hours)
Operating Ratio #
# Annual Operation and Maintenance cost/ Annual Revenue "na" denotes "not available" Source: Asian Development Bank, 2007 Benchmarking and Data Book of Water Utilities in India 31
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Immense challenges to deliver Water in Asia Urban water
Rural water
Urban sanitation
Rural sanitation
Corruption Perceptions
Country
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Index 2008
Cambodia
64
35
53
8
1.8
Indonesia
87
69
73
40
2.6
Lao People's Democratic Republic
79
43
67
20
2.0
Malaysia
100
96
95
93
5.1
Philippines
87
82
80
59
2.3
Singapore
100
na
100
na
9.2
Thailand
98
100
98
99
3.5
Vietnam
99
80
92
50
2.7
Note: "na” - "not applicable”; . Transparency International’s CPI score indicates the degree of public sector corruption as perceived by business people and country analysts. It ranges between 0 (highly corrupt) and 10 (highly clean)
Source: Asia Water Watch 2015, Asian Development Bank, UNDP, UNESCAP, WHO
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Food Price Rise •
Over the past 5 years, food prices have been rising, stoking fears of a "food crisis.“ – The World Bank's food price index climbed 57% in the first quarter of 2008 alone.
•
About one billion people in Asia spend at least 60% of their income on food. Majority of these are urban dwellers.
FAO food price indices (Till April 2008)
33 Source: http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/ai465e/ai465e06.htm
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6. What are the out-of-the-box solutions? Water and Sanitation; innovation and technology (learn from other sectors: energy, telecom, food, etc.)
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Water, Sanitation, Food and Housing: Key to Human Development Human development Improved governance
Human development
Health
School enrollment
Water, sanitation, Food and Housing
Education
Predictable public policies Centrality of WATSAN
GDP Increase
Efficient economy Employment and income
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“Even
with the most comprehensive plans and visions of a sustainable future, nothing can be accomplished without strong political will, good governance, effective implementation and a motivated workforce.� - Khoo Teng Chye (Chief Executive, PUB)
in Asit K Biswas, Cecilia Tortajada, and Rafael Izquierdo (Eds.), Water Management in 2020 and Beyond, Berlin: Springer, 2009, p.249
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Global Asia Institute Institute Global Asia industrial productivity
+
GDP
urban land area (km2)
+ + industry land requirements
+
+ available land for housing
+ +
industry +
housing price
-
+
+
-
+
-
urban employment opportunities
rural-urban migration
rural--urban migration
-
+
urban population
pollution budget allocated for improving public infrastructure
crowding
-
+
quality of life public services
+
-
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Water, Precious Water 90%
95%
70%
Blood 82%
95%
Even a 2% drop in the body can trigger Dehydration 38
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Water is Food, Need, and Good •
Drinking water is Food (1–2 liters per capita per day)
•
Water for essential use is a Need (10–20 lpcd; own source, rain water harvesting)
•
Water for other uses is a Good (24-hour supply; full cost recovery, water conservation)
“It is impossible to continue with the traditional idea of providing required drinking water to every one free of cost or at highly subsidized rates.”
Deliver drinking water immediately to all
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Thinking “out-of-the-box” on Water & Sanitation Learn from the telecom and energy sectors •
• • • • • • •
APANA is a new framework to serve a potential $1 Trillion market, for a market size of $100 million persons per year, until 2015. Technology driven, and Scalable Solutions Replace the 200-year old technology for toilets Give new solutions to approx 1 billion current customers Innovation for sanitation like “handphone” for “telecommunication Car, fashion designers Vacuum cleaner solution for sanitation Building design innovation (self-contained apartments, communities)
Issues
APANA 1012 Solutions
Questions
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Water, Energy, and Food policies cannot be delinked
Water, Energy, and Food policies cannot be made without a deeper understanding of the central role of water with respect to everyday needs. Approaching any of the policies in isolation will result in failed policies in a globalized world. 41
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Nexus between Water and Food • •
• •
•
Agriculture consumes 85 percent of fresh water withdrawals in developing countries Growing population in cities and growing affluence has increased the demand for diets containing more animal protein Roughly 1,000-2,000 litres of water is required to produce a KG of wheat, and 10,000-13,000 litres of water to produce a KG of beef The present average food ingest of 2,800 kcal/person/day may require roughly 1,000 m3 per year water to be produced. Thus, with a world population of 6 billion, water needed to produce the necessary food is 6,000 km3 (excluding any conveyance losses associated with irrigation systems).
42 Source: FAO, World Development Report 2008
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7. Who can ensure that we embrace “living cities” framework – Passionate leadership is essential
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New Paradigm for Living Cities “Proper Knowledge + Positive Action = Good Leadership”
“People”
“Passion”
•
Executive education for nurturing leaders for the future
•
Proactive role of media in shaping public policy on water
•
Simple indicators for a “pulse check” on water governance
Procedures
Policy “Nations that prioritized urban water policies have successfully improved quality of life in terms of HDI.”
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8. What is the big picture on water management – new look at the water cycle; dynamic modeling of public policy
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Understanding the water cycle: “no beginning” – “no end”
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9. What is the vision of good water governance – Man is part of Nature; Nurture Nature.
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Nurture Nature Space
Satellite, internet, mobile phone, and other communication technology are essential in daily life.
Air
Modern industry, medicine, and households use a variety of gases. Air travel is the hallmark of 21st century.
Fire
Solar energy, coal and petroleum products sustain the modern economy.
Water
75% of creation comprises water. Water is home to many beings. Water recycles itself eternally.
Earth
Earth provides all organic and inorganic nutrients (minerals) and materials.
Nature can Give; Nature can Destroy!
radiation hazards harmful gases, infective virus
volcanic eruption extreme temperatures
floods typhoons
landslide, earthquakes 48
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Conclusion “Governance is more about governing our own behavior in Nature.�
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About the Global Asia Institute Transcending boundaries of geography and knowledge
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Introduction • It will address deep issues crucial to the future of Asia, and at a level of depth and breadth not readily achievable if studied through traditional academic disciplines or policy institutes. • GAI will provide an innovative new platform to bring together existing expertise from NUS, as well as other universities within and outside Asia, particularly scholars with expertise in China and India, to work together across disciplines to address the critical issues within Asia. • It will be integrative as well as holistic, combining the hard-side (engineering solutions, quantitative methodologies and systematic scientific analysis), with the soft-side (human and social issues) of the knowledge domains.
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Vision and Mission Vision • Integrative research to solve challenges of the Asian century
Mission • Integrative and multi-disciplinary, cluster of 2-3 PIs • High impact research • India / china focus • Wikipedia approach / regular workshop • Iterative and cumulative • Social sciences first, followed by wet-bench
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For further enquiries, please contact: Director, Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Director, Global Asia Institute National University of Singapore, 469C Bukit Timah Road, Singapore 259772 Telephone: (65) 6516 2083, Fax: (65) 6468 4186 Email: iwplkyspp@nus.edu.sg gaidir@nus.edu.sg
Š All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior permission in writing from the Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.