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THE
NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Keith Porterfield Vice President Justin Hicks Secretary/Treasurer David Hughes Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee. SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027. Phone: (615) 377-1055.
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FEATURES 9 Online sale counselors key in today’s market
Online sales programs meet the demands of today’s new home prospects who are seeking quick and easy buying experiences.
11 Millennial homeownership rises 37 percent
Millennials are returning to the home buying market as homeownership rate on the rise.
12 Installation banquet set for December 13th
The annual banquet will be held at the J.W. Marriott Nashville. Sign up now to sponsor the popular event.
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6 News & Information 17 SPIKE Club Report 18 November Calendar 18 Chapters and Councils
Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details
ON THE COVER: Millennials are buying more homes according to the latest data. More on page eleven. November, 2018
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news&info
Home sales fall in September, up 3.5 percent from 2017
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ales of newly built, single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 553,000 units after downwardly revised August, July and June reports, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the lowest sales pace since December 2016. However, on a year-to-date basis, sales are up 3.5 percent from this time in 2017. “New home sales activity has slowed this summer as housing affordability remains a serious issue,” said Randy Noel, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “However, sales are up from this time last year and builders continue to report consumer interest in housing.” “Home price gains and rising interest rates are slowing down the housing market, particularly in high-cost areas and among entry-level buyers who are sensitive to price increases,”
Sales are up from this time last year and builders continue to report consumer interest in housing. 6 The NAIL
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said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Builders need to provide homes at different price points to address these affordability concerns. Meanwhile, overall job and economic growth should help support the housing market in the months ahead as it adjusts to higher mortgage interest rates.” A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the September reading of 553,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months. The inventory of new homes for sale was 327,000 in September. The median sales price was $320,000. Meanwhile, the median home price in September 2017 was $331,500, as the market has shifted to lower-cost homes. Regionally, new home sales rose 6.9 percent in the Midwest. Sales fell 1.5 percent in the South, 12 percent in the West and 40.6 percent in the Northeast. On a year-to-date basis, home sales are higher in all regions expect the Northeast, which has registered a 16.5 percent decrease in sales volume. n
Single-family housing starts flat in September, confidence up
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otal housing starts posted a decline in September due to flat conditions for single-family construction and a pullback for apartment development. Total starts declined 5.3% in September but are 6.4% higher for 2018 on a year-to-date basis, according to the joint data release from the Census Bureau and HUD. The pace of single-family starts was roughly flat in September, decreasing 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 871,000. Slight gains off the summer soft patch for single-family mirror a minor uptick of the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, now registering a score of 68. While builders are benefitting from recent declines in lumber prices (at least relative to spring and summer’s elevated levels), they continue to report concerns about labor access issues. On a year-to-date basis, single-family starts are 6% higher as of September relative to the first nine months of 2017. Single-family permits, a useful indicator of future construction activity, were up slightly (2.9%) in September and have registered a 5.6% gain thus far in 2018 compared to last year. Multifamily starts (2+ unit production) pulled back in September to a 330,000 annual rate. After a strong start to the year, multifamily development is moving closer
to our forecast of leveling-off conditions. On a year-to-date basis, multifamily 5+ unit production is 7.3% higher thus far in 2018, while multifamily 5+ unit permitting is trending lower with just a 0.8% year-todate increase relative to 2017. With respect to housing’s economic impact, 54% of homes under construction in September were multifamily (607,000). The current count of apartments under construction is down slightly from a year ago. In September, there were 522,000 single-family units under construction, a gain of more than 9% from this time in 2017. Regional data show – on a year-to-date basis – mixed conditions. Single-family construction is down 1% for the year in the Midwest and flat in the Northeast. Single-family starts are up in the larger building regions of the South (4.9%) and the West (14.6%). Builder confidence on solid footing Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose one point to 68 in October on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Builder confidence levels have held in the high 60s since June. “Builders are motivated by solid housing demand, fueled by a growing economy and a generational low for unemployment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “Builders are also re-
Unemployment Falls to 3.7% in September
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he labor market continues to be very strong as total employment increased by 134,000 and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.7% in September. Residential construction employment increased by 4,400 and has risen by 139,600 over the last 12 months. In September, total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 134,000, following the increase of 270,000 jobs in August, according to the Employment Situation reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The August increase was revised upward from its original estimate of a 201,000 increase. Job gains have averaged 208,000 a month
in 2018, faster than the first nine months’ averages of 170,000 in 2017 and 206,000 in 2016. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in September, after 3.9% for two consecutive months. In September, the number of unemployed persons decreased by 270,000 while the number of employed persons increased by 420,000. As a result, the number of individuals in the labor force increased by 150,000. The labor force participation rate remained at 62.7% in September. Monthly employment data released by the BLS Establishment Survey indicates that the number of residential construction
lieved that lumber prices have declined for three straight months from elevated levels earlier this summer, but they need to manage supply-side costs to keep home prices affordable.” “Favorable economic conditions and demographic tailwinds should continue to support demand, but housing affordability has become a challenge due to ongoing price and interest rate increases,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Unless housing affordability stabilizes, the market risks losing additional momentum as we head into 2019.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. The HMI index measuring current sales conditions rose one point to 74 and the component gauging expectations in the next six months increased a single point to 75. Meanwhile, the metric charting buyer traffic registered a four-point uptick to 53. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose three points to 57 and the South edged up one point to 71. The West held steady at 74 and the Midwest fell two points to 57. n
jobs rose by 4,400 in September, after a 12,000 increase in August. Residential construction employment now stands at 2.84 million in September, broken down as 799,000 builders and 2 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction is 6,717 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers have added 139,600 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 853,000 positions. In September, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose to 5.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis, after reaching the lowest rate of 4.0% in August. The unemployment rate for the construction sector has been trending downwards since February 2010 and remains historically low. n November, 2018
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Online sales counselors key in today’s market
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ome builders can miss many sales in a hot market without a high-performing online sales program built to capture and maximize the potential of every incoming lead. The Great Recession reminded home builders that every lead is precious. As the economy continues to improve and inventory remains low, home builders must remember the significance of every lead and incremental sale. When sales teams are busy and meeting goals, it’s natural to take what you get and ignore lost opportunities. Today’s new home prospects, increasingly dominated by millennials and digital natives, want a home-buying process that plays out quickly and easily from a laptop or mobile device. An online sales program will meet the demands of these buyers while capturing each lead and leaving less money on the table. So what are the key elements of a high-performing online sales program?
Hiring a Great Online Sales Counselor The core of a successful online sales program is the talent and drive of the online sales counselor (OSC). This program is not a call center. The OSC must be a dynamic sales professional who is self-motivated, organized, team oriented, and personally grounded. The role can be challenging to fill because the key attributes of a great OSC are so diverse. The OSC must be a skilled listener, connecting the buyer’s needs with the builder’s offerings and making an onsite appointment.
call and provides a dynamic coaching tool for sales managers and their OSC teams. The system also provides detailed reporting on call source, call times, length of calls, calls missed, quality of calls and more. 3. Chat software: Website chat software (LiveChat, LivePerson) is easy to integrate with most websites and affordable. A chat function that prompts the website visitor to quickly engage with the OSC is highly desired by buyers who often choose to reach out quickly without making the commitment of a phone call.
5 Traits to Look for When Searching for a Star OSC: 1. Rockstar phone skills 2. Passionately organized 3. Competitive 4. Team oriented 5. History of success Technical Support: Get These 3 Tools of the OSC Trade 1. CRM including programmed follow-up system: The mainframe of the successful OSC program is a great CRM. Every lead that comes in to the OSC is documented in the CRM and connected to an automatic follow-up task system. When the OSC rates the lead, the follow-up path for that type of lead populates and the OSC has a defined daily step for nurturing the lead into an appointment. 2. A call tracking system: Call tracking (CallRail, PhoneWagon) is a game changer for the online sales program, since it records every
Creating a high-performing online sales program pays huge dividends to builders who refuse to miss precious leads even when the market is hot. The online sales program is a revenue generator, not a call center. By creating OSC programs with great talent, follow-up systems and progressive technology, home builders will see stronger profits and better meet the demands of today’s buyer. n November, 2018
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Millennials returning to the housing market
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ccording to the Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), the U.S. homeownership rate was 64.4% in the third quarter of 2018, which is not statistically different from its last quarter reading. The national homeownership rate demonstrated stability during a quarter in which housing markets softened due to declining affordability conditions. This follows the rate dropping to a cycle low of 62.9% in the second quarter 2016. Compared to the peak of 69.2% in 2004, however, the homeownership rate is still lower by almost five percentage points. The count of total households, however, increased to 121 million in the third quarter of 2018 from 119 million a year ago. Newly-gained households are predominantly owner households, while renter households
only increased by 60,000. The homeownership rates among all age groups under 64 increased over the last year. Millennial households, mostly first-time homebuyers, registered the largest gains among all households, a 1.2 percentage point increase from a year ago. Millennials are gradually returning to the housing market, where gains in home price are slowing down. The homeownership rates of households ages 45-54 and 55-64 experienced a 0.8 percentage point increase. The nonseasonally adjusted homeowner vacancy rate remained low at 1.6% in the third quarter 2018. At the same time, the national rental vacancy rate went up to 7.1%, up by 0.3% from the last quarter. The HVS also provides a timely measure of household formations – the key driver of
housing demand. Although it is not perfectly consistent with other Census Bureau surveys (Current Population Survey’s March ASEC, American Community Survey, and Decennial Census), the HVS remains a useful source of relatively real-time data. The housing stock-based HVS revealed that the number of households increased to 121.4 million in the third quarter of 2018, 1.6 million higher than a year ago. The gains are largely due to strong owner household formation. Indeed, the number of homeowner households has been rising since the third quarter 2016, while the number of renter households has been on the downward trend. In the third quarter 2018, the number of homeowners increased by 1.5 million, while the number of renter households rose by 60,000. n
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GENERAL r SPONSOR
- Logo on all printed material - Two tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Recognition at Banquet
$600
PLATINUM r SPONSOR
- Larger logo on all printed material - Two (2) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Twenty (20) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet
$1,000
RECEPTIONS r SPONSOR (2 available)
- Dual logos on all printed material - Signage at Reception and Banquet - Four (4) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Fifty (50) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet
$5,000
TITLE r SPONSOR (1 available)
- Headliner on all printed material with logo at Reception and Banquet - Welcome everyone & introduce entertainment $7,000 - Table at Installation & Awards Banquet (8 tickets) - One hundred (100) beverage tickets of your choice
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Exhibitor Agreement - January 11-13, 2019 FAIRGROUNDS NASHVILLE - NASHVILLE, TN Exhibitor application & contract for exhibit space
Return this completed form to the HBAMT to reserve your space at the 2019 Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee HOME SHOW. Return to: HBAMT - 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027 Phone: (615) 377-1055 Fax: (615) 377-1077 For more information please visit: www.thehomeshow.org
Name ___________________________________________________ Company _________________________________________________ Address ________________________________________________ City ________________________________ St. _____ Zip __________ Phone _______________________________ Mobile ________________________________ Email ________________________________ PLEASE LIST ALL PRODUCTS & SERVICES YOU WISH TO EXHIBIT - This is mandatory (please see rule #1 in show regulations) ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Do you have something new to the market? r Yes; please describe ___________________________________________________________ Estimated time you will need to set up your display ______ Will your display require special needs? r Yes; please describe ____________ ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Would you be interested in doing a seminar? r Yes; what subject _____________________________________________________________
SELECT YOUR BOOTH SPACE & REQUIRED ELECTRICAL CONNECTIONS
for Custom Space Size price, contact HBAMT offices with your dimensions; booth preference choices not guaranteed
Custom Space Insert Size
Exhibit Space Fairgrounds
10x10 Booth Space
10x20 Booth Space
20x20 Booth Space
Member Rate
r $595
r $1090
r $2000
r $______
Non-Member Rate
r $795
r $1490
r $2800
r $______
____ x ____
Standard Electrical Connection (110v) = $125.00* x ___ number of connections = $______ Electricity Industrial Electrical Connection (220v) = $250.00* x ___ number of connections = $______ Your total based on booth space & electrical connections $ ___________ (please pay this amount below)
YOUR TOTAL
A 50% deposit holds your booth; full amount must be paid before the move in date/time assigned by the HBAMT.
Booth preferences
Please list your top 3 booth locations (see brochure at www.thehomeshow.org): ______
______
______
*Electrical fees are subject to change if requirements ARE NOT requested by January 1, 2019.
Are you interested in an HBAMT membership? r Yes (Members receive reduced Home Show rates & other benefits; visit www.hbamt.org for more) Amount Enclosed __________
Payment: r Check; Check #______________________
r Visa/Mastercard
r AMEX
r Discover
Card Number __________________________________________________________ Exp. _____________________ V-Code _____________ Name on Card (please print) ____________________________________ Signature _____________________________________________ I HAVE READ AND AGREE TO ABIDE BY ALL SHOW RULES AND REGULATIONS - complete list found at www.hbamt.org/home_show.html Applicants signature: _______________________________________________________ Date: ____________________________________ 16 The NAIL
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SPIKE REPORT
Twenty-four SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of September 30, 2018. Top 20 Big Spikes Virgil Ray Mitzi Spann Terry Cobb Jim Fischer John Whitaker Trey Lewis James Carbine Jennifer Earnest David Crane Kevin Hale Jimmy Franks Reese Smith III Steve Moody Davis Lamb Jackson Downey Tim Ferguson
821 764 570 566 557 417 392 364 314 300 270 261 219 205 182 177
Jim McLean Louise Stark Harry Johnson Steve Cates
164 163 146 142
Life Spikes C.W. Bartlett Tonya Esquibel Sam Carbine Randall Smith B.J. Hanson Steve Hewlett Jordan Clark Carmen Ryan John Zelenak Dave McGowan Edsel Charles Wiggs Thompson Duane Vanhook David Hughes Michael Dillon Justin Hicks Christina Cunningham Erin Richardson Beth Sturm Lori Fisk-Conners Joe Morgan Don Bruce Keith Porterfield Ron Schroeder Marty Maitland Nick Wisniewski John Broderick
138 136 135 122 119 119 118 117 109 107 105 102 99 98 96 90 82 77 71 69 65 62 61 60 59 56 55
Jody Derrick Andrew Neuman Derenda Sircy John Ganschow Bryan Edwards Ricky Scott Phillip Smith Ashley Crews Steve Shalibo Rick Olszewski Don Mahone Frank Tyree Christina James
50 50 50 49 44 43 43 42 39 36 30 29 26
Spikes Brandon Rickman 21 Frank Jones 19 John Burns 16 Perry Pratt 12 Will Montgomery 10 Rob Pease 10 Tammy Chambers 9 Bob Bellenfant 8 Eric DeBerry 8 Kim Carman 7 Joe Dalton 7 Stacy DeSoto 7 Ryan Meade 7 McClain Franks 6 Curt Haynes 6
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NOVEMber Calendar Sunday
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Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873. The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at the Ponderosa Restaurant in Dickson. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - John Whitaker: 615/843-3300. The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: Monday, November 26. Topic: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER
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Next meeting: to be announced. Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.
sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o). Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308
SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262
HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - Ricky Scott. The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations. Next meeting: to be announced. 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. at a location to be determined. Topic: to be announced. Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263
WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - B.J. Hanson: 615/884-4935. The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526. The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m. Next meeting: to be announced. Price: free for Green Building Council members pending
INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced. Price: to be announced. RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265. MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Tonya Esquibel. The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: January, 2019. 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT. Topic: to be announced. SMC members free pending sponsorship; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.
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