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THE
NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President David Hughes Vice President Steve Shalibo Secretary/Treasurer Nick Wisniewski Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard
THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee. SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027. Phone: (615) 377-1055.
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FEATURES 9 Annual HBAMT Banquet this month at Franklin Marriott
Make your reservations now for the 2020 Builders First Source Installation and Awards Banquet.
11 Contribute now to the Showcase House program
Donate materials and/or labor to the HBAMT’s Showcase House program. There are currently two Showcase projects underway.
12 Recent trends show a strong shift to suburban housing A higher demand for housing in lowerdensity areas has emerged in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
13 Sponsorships available for the Installation Banquet
Advertise in
THE
NAIL Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details
The HBAMT’s Annual Installation and Awards Banquet is this month! Sponsorships still availble, sign up today!
DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 15 SPIKE Club Report 16 December Calendar 16 Chapters and Councils
ON THE COVER: The Installation and Awards Banquet will be held Thursday, December 10 at the Franklin Marriott Cool Springs (see page 9 for details). December, 2020
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NEWS&INFO
Home building a leading sector in the Q3 rebound
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he economy rebounded sharply during the third quarter, as GDP registered a 33.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate. This bounce back followed a gradual reopening of the economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Prior shutdowns of economic activity had predictably large macro effects, resulting in annualized GDP declines of 5% and 31.4% in the first and second quarters, respectively. This led to an unemployment rate of almost 15% in April. The gains during the third quarter helped reduce the unemployment rate to 6.9% in October, but broad-based economic distress continues. As virus-related hospitalizations increase this fall, policymakers should choose focused protection over shutdowns given the potential economic costs. Home building has undoubtedly been a bright spot for the economy during this period of economic distress. Demand for single-family housing has increased on historically low
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interest rates, a need for more residential space, favorable demographics for home buying, and an evolving geography of housing demand that favors low density, more affordable markets. Indeed, builder confidence reached an alltime high in October, as total single-family starts in 2020 are poised to post a notable gain. These data are consistent with the rise of the home building share of GDP (the dollar value of single-family, multifamily, and remodeling-related construction activities). This measure increased at a 59% annualized growth rate in the third quarter. And the overall housing share of GDP now stands at 15.5%. The gains for home building have led to growth in residential construction employment. The number of residential construction jobs rose in September and October by 24,000 and 23,800, respectively. Residential construction employment stands at 2.9 million as of October, marking the first year-over-year growth since before the Great Recession. Although employment in the sector remains below its total from before the 2020 recession, NAHB is forecasting continued gains for home building and remodeling jobs in the months ahead. n
New home sales continue strong Fall season
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ales of newly built, single-family homes in October dipped 0.3 percent to 999,000 from an upwardly revised September number, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. Despite the monthly decline, the October rate is 41.5 percent higher than the October 2019 pace, and on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 20.6 percent in 2020. “Buyer traffic remained strong in October
even as the country’s attention was focused on the elections and policy issues going into 2021,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Mortgage rates remain low and builder confidence is at an all-time high indicating that demand remains steady and sales will remain solid.” “NAHB analysis showed that the gap between construction and sales was at an all-time high in early fall. Thus, the NAHB forecast contains an acceleration in single-family starts and some slowing of the pace of growth for new
Housing starts increase, builder confidence hits record high
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ed by solid gains in single-family production, overall housing starts increased 4.9% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.53 million units, according to a report from according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The October reading of 1.53 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 6.4% to a 1.18 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, and are up 8.6% year-to-date. The pace of single-family starts was the best since the spring of 2007. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, remained unchanged from the previous month at a 351,000 pace. “As seen in the NAHB/Wells Fargo builder confidence index, single-family starts continue to grow off a historic rebound that began in April,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Current demand is being supported by historically low interest rates and home buyer preferences shifting to the suburbs and exurbs.” “Single-family permits were approximately flat in October, which suggests housing starts will level off in the months ahead, although at post-Great Recession highs,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Builders cite a lack of lots and decreased availability of building materials as headwinds that will limit production.” On a regional and year-to-date basis (January through October of 2020 compared to that same
time frame a year ago), combined single-family and multifamily starts are 15.5% higher in the Midwest, 7.5% higher in the South, 4.7% higher in the West and 6.4% lower in the Northeast. The gains for the Midwest are notable and being led by the shift to lower cost, lower density areas. Overall permits came in at a 1.55 million unit annualized rate in October, remaining unchanged from the previous month. Single-family permits increased 0.6% to a 1.12 million unit rate. Looking at regional permit data on a year-todate basis, permits are 5.6% higher in the Midwest, 5.5% higher in the South, 0.1% higher in the West and 3.9% lower in the Northeast. Builder confidence continues record high In another sign that housing continues to lead the economy forward, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased five points to 90 in November, shattering the previous all-time of 85 recorded in October, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Builder confidence levels have hit successive all-time highs over the past three months. “Historically low mortgage rates, favorable demographics and an ongoing suburban shift for home buyer preferences have spurred demand and increased new home sales by nearly 17% in 2020 on a year-to-date basis,” said Fowke. “Though builders continue to sign sales contracts at a solid pace, lot and material availability is holding back some building activity. Looking ahead to next year, regulatory policy risk will be a key concern given these
homes sale to allow a catch-up,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Demand remains strong as home buyers seek out lower density markets as part of the suburban shift.” Inventory remains tight at a 3.3 months’ supply, with 278,000 new single-family homes for sale. This is the fourth consecutive month with inventory running under four months’ supply. Of the inventory total, just 44,000 are completed, ready to occupy. Regionally, on a year-to-date basis new home sales were up in all four regions: 29.9 percent in the Northeast, 29.8 percent in the Midwest, 18.5 percent in the South, and 20.1 percent in the West. n
supply-side constraints.” “Another record high for the HMI reflects that housing is a bright spot for the economy,” said Dietz. “However, affordability remains an ongoing concern, as construction costs continue to rise and interest rates are expected to move higher as more positive news emerges on the coronavirus vaccine front. In the short run, the shift of housing demand to lower density markets such as suburbs and exurbs with ongoing low resale inventory levels is supporting demand for home building.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 35 years, the HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. All the HMI indices posted their highest readings ever in November. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose six points to 96, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased one point to 89 and the measure charting traffic of prospective buyers rose three points to 77. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased two points to 83, the Midwest jumped six points to 80, the South rose four points to 86 and the West increased four points to 94. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com. n December, 2020
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Thank you Banquet sponsors!
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distributed by DixiePly Nashville
SHOWCASE HOUSE Fundraiser Program The HBAMT Showcase House program is an effort to generate funds to help fuel the association’s daily efforts to promote the home building industry and defend its builders against unjust legislative activity. We currently have TWO projects underway: - The 2020 Showcase House at Nature’s Landing - The 2021 Showcase House at Hardeman Springs See the brochures below for a complete list of materials and labor needed for each project. Contact information for donating to each of the programs is listed below the brochure links.
SEE INSIDE FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF MATERIALS AND LABOR NEEDED FOR THE PROJECT. Visit http://www.hbamt.org/showcase_fundraiser.html for updated lists on needed materials/labor.
SEE INSIDE FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF MATERIALS AND LABOR NEEDED FOR THE PROJECT. Visit
For specific details regarding materials please contact Jimmy Franks: 615-794-7415 or franco314@aol.com; or Blake Parks: 615-243-6373 or blake@tennesseevalleyhomes.com
For specific details regarding materials please contact Steve Shalibo: 615-772-1019 or shalibo42@gmail.com
http://www.hbamt.org/showcase_fundraiser_2021.html
for updated lists on needed materials/labor.
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Suburban housing: trend or permanent shift?
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n the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, certain patterns and trends have begun to emerge in the housing industry — in particular, higher demand for housing in lower-density areas. How much of these trends, though, are actually a change in demand or behavior, or just a continuation of existing trends that may have been accelerated through COVID? “When we think about the conversation around suburban and urban development, it’s really thinking about the extent the trends are on the curve, or if this is really a shift,” moderator Richard Gollis observed during NAHB’s recent The Future of Urban and Suburban Housing in the Wake of COVID-19 webinar. Gollis was join by panelists from NAHB, CoStar, Zillow and Toll Brothers Apartment Living, who presented information from various segments of the industry to highlight growing trends. According to NAHB Chief Economist Dr. Robert Dietz, increased construction activity in lower-density markets was already occurring as part of the housing affordability crisis, with the COVID-related shift to telecommuting accelerating the trend as people have more flexibility to live outside of large metro areas. Supply can respond better in lower-density areas as well because of the lower cost to build, and may affect the size and design of
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single-family homes and types of multifamily projects being built in these areas as well. The same can be said for demand for multifamily rentals, according to John Affleck, vice president of market analytics at CoStar. Supply and demand have geared toward the suburban markets — a trend already in progress pre-COVID — with suburban multifamily products comprising all the rental demand in the second quarter of 2020.Despite the overall improvement, consumer confidence still remained below pre-pandemic levels and the Present Situation Index suggested that current economic conditions remained weak. This has impacted rents, as historically expensive markets such as San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle and Boston have seen double-digit decreases in asking rents since their March peak. Meanwhile, smaller suburbs and cities such as Inland Empire, Calif. (a bedroom community of Los Angeles), Norfolk and Richmond, Va., and Memphis, Tenn., have seen rents increase between 3.6% to 5.3%. Not every suburb is the same, though, noted Charles Elliott, president of Toll Brothers Apartment Living — both in terms of performance as well as mindset. “The meaning of suburbs is very relative to people,” he stated, providing Toll Brothers’ success in the urban core of New Jersey — which can be considered a suburb of New
York City — as an example. Elliott predicts the urban and walkable suburban markets will come back strong because of rising interest among Gen Z, and also noted increased interest in second homes as a result of the increased flexibility of working from home. Gen Z and millennials are key drivers in the real estate market, observed Svenja Gudell, chief economist for Zillow Group, as many millennials are reaching or have reached 34 — the median age of first-time home buyers. Those with the means to buy are facing an increasingly competitive market, however; although interested home buyers have been active, sellers have been apprehensive to put their properties on the market, leading to tight inventory and quick sales. Low interest rates are helping buyers, she added, but they aren’t going to make up for the extremely high prices. Other trends to watch include the size of single-family homes, which had been on a decline but is likely to increase as people look to expand their available space. Flexible design will play a key role in that as well. Higher unemployment rates among younger age groups is also likely to have a lasting impact on the rental market, with an increased number of young adults moving back in with their parents as a result. n
The 2020 HBAMT Installation & Awards Banquet
SPONSORSHIPS AVAILABLE! GENERAL SPONSOR
- Logo on all printed material - Two tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Recognition at Banquet
$600
PLATINUM SPONSOR
- Larger logo on all printed material - Two (2) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Ten (10) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet
$1,000
RECEPTIONS SPONSOR (2 available)
- Dual logos on all printed material - Signage at Reception and Banquet - Four (4) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Forty (40) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet
$5,000
TITLE SPONSOR (1 available)
- Headliner on all printed material with logo at Reception and Banquet - Welcome everyone & introduce entertainment - Table at Installation & Awards Banquet (8 tickets) - Sixty (60) beverage tickets of your choice
$7,500
Yes, I want to sponsor the 2020 Installation & Awards Banquet (12/10/20) at the level checked above.
Company name: _____________________________________________________________
Your Name: _________________________________________________________________
Your number: ________________________ Your email: ______________________________
Return this form and your company’s logo via email to cnicley@hbamt.org Fax: 615-377-1077 | Mail: HBAMT 9007 Overlook Blvd, Brentwood, TN 37027
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SPIKE REPORT Davis Lamb Jackson Downey Jim McLean Randall Smith
Twenty-one SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of October 31, 2020. Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Mitzi Spann 785 Bill King 776 Terry Cobb 570 Jim Fischer 567 John Whitaker 565 Trey Lewis 498 James Carbine 406 Jennifer Earnest 375 David Crane 335 Jimmy Franks 332 Kevin Hale 302 Reese Smith III 261 Steve Moody 221 Sonny Shackelford 219
216 182 164 154
Life Spikes David Hughes 149 Tonya Esquibel 148 Harry Johnson 146 Steve Cates 142 Helmet Mundt 140 C.W. Bartlett 138 Nick Wisniewski 129 Jordan Clark 123 B.J. Hanson 122 Carmen Ryan 121 Steve Hewlett 119 John Zelenak 118 Michael Dillon 112 Justin Hicks 112 Dave McGowan 110 Steve Shalibo 110 Edsel Charles 109 Wiggs Thompson 106 Duane Vanhook 103 Joe Morgan 94 Brandon Rickman 90 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Christina Cunningham 84 Keith Porterfield 80 Erin Richardson 77 Beth Sturm 74 Jody Derrick 73
Sam Henley 72 Lori Fisk-Conners 70 Ron Schroeder 69 Andrew Neuman 62 Marty Maitland 60 John Broderick 55 Christina James 55 John Ganschow 51 Rick Olszewski 50 Phillip Smith 47 Ricky Scott 45 Bryan Edwards 44 Frank Jones 39 Joe Dalton 33 Frank Tyree 33 Don Mahone 30 Jeffrey Caruth 25 Spikes Ryan Meade 21 Rachel Holloway 20 Perry Pratt 20 Nicole Bird 15 Rob Pease 14 Tammy Chambers 13 Eric DeBerry 12 John Nehrenz 11 MacKenzie Curtis 10 Will Montgomery 10 Chris Richey 9 Bob Bellenfant 8 Matt Dryden 7 Curt Haynes 7
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DECEMBER CALENDAR Sunday
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Sales & Marketing Council Meet & Greet
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CHAPTERS & COUNCILS CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873. The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER
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Next meeting: to be announced. Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313. SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262 WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - John Nehrenz The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Nick Wisniewski The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Wednesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Lebanon Wilson County Chamber of Commerce in Lebanon. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526. The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.
Next meeting: to be announced. Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o). Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308 HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - David Crane. The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263 INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced. Price: to be announced. RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265. MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Christina James. The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: Thursday, December 3rd. Topic: “Holiday Meet & Greet.” FREE TO ATTEND - NO RSVP REQUIRED Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.
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