February, 2021
l
The NAIL 1
2 The NAIL
l February,
2021
February, 2021
l
The NAIL 3
THE
NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Steve Shalibo Vice President Nick Wisniewski Secretary/Treasurer Brandon Rickman Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard
THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee. SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027. Phone: (615) 377-1055.
4 The NAIL
l February,
2021
FEATURES 9 Contributions needed for the Showcase House program
Donate materials and/or labor to the HBAMT’s Showcase House program. There are currently two Showcase projects underway.
10 Home buyers still influenced by pandemic
NAHB’s latest trends report shows gains in the number of people considering a home purchase in the next 12 months.
11 Annual HBAMT Banquet set for March
The Builders First Source Installation and Awards Banquet has been rescheduled for March 25 at the Cool Springs Marriott.
14 Sponsorships still available for the Installation Banquet
Advertise in
THE
NAIL Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details
Sponsorships for the HBAMT’s Annual Installation and Awards Banquet are still available. Register now for the March event.
DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 15 SPIKE Club Report 16 February Calendar 16 Chapters and Councils
ON THE COVER: The percentage of Americans considering purchasing a new home in the next twelve months is up according to latest NAHB report (see page 9 for details). February, 2021
l
The NAIL 5
NEWS&INFO
New home sales hold steady in December
H
igher home prices stemming from rising lumber and other building material costs, as well as a lack of inventory due to a shortage of buildable lots, offset solid demand for new home sales in December. Despite a brief slowing in sales activity toward the end of the year, new home sales in 2020 posted a strong 18.8 percent gain over 2019. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in December rose 1.6 percent to an 842,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, from a downwardly revised November reading, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. “Sales growth continues in lower cost, lower density markets,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Indeed, the Midwest posted a 24 percent sales gain in 2020. Looking forward, builders are concerned that increased regulatory bur-
Median home prices are increasing due to higher building material costs, most notably softwood lumber. 6 The NAIL
l February,
2021
dens in 2021 could hurt housing affordability.” “While the market remains solid, median home prices are increasing due to higher building material costs, most notably softwood lumber, and a shift to larger homes,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the December reading of 842,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months. Inventory remains low at just a 4.3-months’ supply, with 302,000 new single-family homes for sale, 18.9 percent lower than December 2019. The median sales price was $355,900. The median price of a new home sale a year earlier was $329,500. Regionally, and for 2020 totals, new home sales were up in all four regions: 21.2 percent in the Northeast, 24.2 percent in the Midwest, 17.6 percent in the South, and 18.9 percent in the West. Access more home sales data on nahb.org. n
Housing starts end year strong, builder confidence record high
W
hile housing starts ended the year on a strong note, rising lumber prices and increasing regulatory cost concerns could affect future production. Led by a solid, double-digit gain in single-family starts, overall housing starts increased 5.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.67 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The December reading of 1.67 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 12.0 percent to a 1.34 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 13.6 percent to a 331,000 pace. Total housing starts for 2020 were 1.38 million, a 7.0 percent gain over the 1.29 total from 2019. Single-family starts in 2020 totaled 991,000, up 11.7 percent from the previous year. Multifamily starts in 2020 totaled 389,000, down 3.3 percent from the previous year. “Builder concerns about a changing regulatory landscape may have triggered many to move up their plans to pull permits and put shovels to the ground,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Our latest builder sentiment survey suggests somewhat softer numbers ahead due to rising building costs and an uncertain regulatory climate.” “The 1.34 million single-family starts pace in December is the highest since September 2006,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “And while NAHB is forecasting further production increases in 2021, the gains will tempered by ongoing supply-side challenges related to material costs and delivery times, a dearth of
buildable lots and regional labor shortages that continue to exacerbate affordability woes.” On a regional and year-to-date basis (January through December of 2020 compared to that same time frame a year ago), combined single-family and multifamily starts are 13.2 percent higher in the Midwest, 7.5 percent higher in the South, 6.2 percent higher in the West and 2.8 percent lower in the Northeast. Overall permits increased 4.5 percent to a 1.71 million unit annualized rate in December. Single-family permits increased 7.8 percent to a 1.23 million unit rate. Multifamily permits decreased 3.0 percent to a 483,000 pace. Looking at regional permit data on a year-todate basis, permits are 7.4 percent higher in the Midwest, 7.3 percent higher in the South, 2.1 percent higher in the West and 5.2 percent lower in the Northeast. Builder confidence dips from record high Rising material costs led by a huge upsurge in lumber prices, along with a resurgence of the coronavirus across much of the nation, pushed builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes down three points to 83 in January, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Despite the
Remodeling industry confidence strong despite COVID-19
N
AHB’s Remodeling Market Index (RMI) for the fourth quarter of 2020 posted a reading of 79, signaling residential remodelers’ strong confidence in their markets, for projects of all sizes.
“The remodeling market was consistently strong throughout 2020, as home owners had more time on their hands to improve their homes and add space and efficiency,” said NAHB Remodelers Chair Tom Ashley, Jr., CAPS, CGP,
drop, builder sentiment remains at a strong level. “Despite robust housing demand and low mortgage rates, buyers are facing a dearth of new homes on the market, which is exacerbating affordability problems,” said Fowke. “Builders are grappling with supply-side constraints related to lumber and other material costs, a lack of affordable lots and labor shortages that delay delivery times and put upward pressure on home prices. They are also concerned about a changing regulatory environment.” “While housing continues to help lead the economy forward, limited inventory is constraining more robust growth,” said Dietz. “A shortage of buildable lots is making it difficult to meet strong demand and rising material prices are far outpacing increases in home prices, which in turn is harming housing affordability.” All three major HMI indices fell in January. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions dropped two points to 90, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell two points to 83 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers decreased five points to 68. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell six points to 76, the Midwest was up two points to 83, the South fell one point to 86 and the West posted a one-point loss to 95. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com. n
CGR, a remodeler from Denham Springs, La. “However, activity slowed a bit at the end of the year as a result of the rising Covid-19 cases and an increase in economic insecurity.” The RMI survey asks remodelers to rate five components of the remodeling market as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” Each question is measured on a scale from 0 to 100, where an index number above 50 indicates that a higher share view conditions as good (continued, page 15) February, 2021
l
The NAIL 7
8 The NAIL
l February,
2021
SHOWCASE HOUSE Fundraiser Program The HBAMT Showcase House program is an effort to generate funds to help fuel the association’s daily efforts to promote the home building industry and defend its builders against unjust legislative activity. We currently have TWO projects underway: - The 2020 Showcase House at Nature’s Landing - The 2021 Showcase House at Hardeman Springs See the brochures below for a complete list of materials and labor needed for each project. Contact information for donating to each of the programs is listed below the brochure links.
SEE INSIDE FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF MATERIALS AND LABOR NEEDED FOR THE PROJECT. Visit http://www.hbamt.org/showcase_fundraiser.html for updated lists on needed materials/labor.
SEE INSIDE FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF MATERIALS AND LABOR NEEDED FOR THE PROJECT. Visit
For specific details regarding materials please contact Jimmy Franks: 615-794-7415 or franco314@aol.com; or Blake Parks: 615-243-6373 or blake@tennesseevalleyhomes.com
For specific details regarding materials please contact Steve Shalibo: 615-772-1019 or shalibo42@gmail.com
http://www.hbamt.org/showcase_fundraiser_2021.html
for updated lists on needed materials/labor.
February, 2021
l
The NAIL 9
COVID-19 continues to impact home purchasing
A
ccording to NAHB’s latest Housing Trends Report (HTR), the share of Americans who are considering the purchase of a home in the next 12 months was 15% in the fourth quarter of 2020, four percentage points higher than a year earlier and the largest year-over-year gain in the 3+year history of this series. The gain shows the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact Americans’ propensity to want to buy homes. Meanwhile, the share of prospective buyers who would be purchasing a home for the first time declined slightly in the year ended in Qtr4’20, down from 63% to 61%. Between the fourth quarters of 2019 and 2020, the share of Millennials planning a home purchase rose eight points to 27%. The share increased 6 points to 18% among Gen X’ers, 3 points to 16% among Gen Z, and was flat at 5% among Boomers. Geographically, the share of adults with plans to buy a home rose in all four regions during this period, led by the Northeast (up 9 points to 19%) and the West (up 6 points to 18%). Lower shares of prospective buyers of every generation are attempting homeownership for the first time in the final quarter of 2020 than a year earlier, except for Boomers. The share of 1st-timers fell 8 points to 70% among Millennial buyers, 7 points to 81% among Gen Z, and 7 points to 50% among Gen X buyers. Among Boomers, the share rose from 20% to 25% during this period. Across regions, significantly fewer prospective buyers in the Northeast (55%) are 1st-timers compared to a year earlier (65%). The share was flat in the West, and changed slightly in the Midwest and South. A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here. n The Housing Trends Report is a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets. The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time. All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult. Results are not seasonally adjusted due to the short-time horizon of the series, and therefore only year-overyear comparisons are statistically valid.
10 The NAIL
l February,
2021
February, 2021
l
The NAIL 11
Thank you Banquet sponsors!
12 The NAIL
l February,
2021
distributed by DixiePly Nashville
February, 2021
l
The NAIL 13
HBAMT Installation & Awards Banquet
SPONSORSHIPS AVAILABLE! GENERAL SPONSOR
- Logo on all printed material - Two tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Recognition at Banquet
$600
PLATINUM SPONSOR
- Larger logo on all printed material - Two (2) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Ten (10) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet
$1,000
RECEPTIONS SPONSOR (2 available)
- Dual logos on all printed material - Signage at Reception and Banquet - Four (4) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Forty (40) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet
$5,000
TITLE SPONSOR (1 available)
- Headliner on all printed material with logo at Reception and Banquet - Welcome everyone & introduce entertainment - Table at Installation & Awards Banquet (8 tickets) - Sixty (60) beverage tickets of your choice
$7,500
Yes, I want to sponsor the HBAMT’s Installation & Awards Banquet (3/25/21) at the level checked above.
Company name: _____________________________________________________________
Your Name: _________________________________________________________________
Your number: ________________________ Your email: ______________________________
Return this form and your company’s logo via email to cnicley@hbamt.org Fax: 615-377-1077 | Mail: HBAMT 9007 Overlook Blvd, Brentwood, TN 37027
14 The NAIL
l February,
2021
SPIKE REPORT Davis Lamb Jackson Downey Jim McLean Randall Smith
Twenty-six SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of December 31, 2020. Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Mitzi Spann 787 Bill King 776 Terry Cobb 570 Jim Fischer 567 John Whitaker 565 Trey Lewis 502 James Carbine 407 Jennifer Earnest 376 Jimmy Franks 338 David Crane 336 Kevin Hale 302 Reese Smith III 261 Steve Moody 221 Sonny Shackelford 219
(continued from page 7) than poor.
The Current Conditions Index is an average of three of these components: the current market for large remodeling projects, moderately-sized projects and small projects. The Future Indicators Index is an average of the other two components: the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in and the current backlog of remodeling projects. The overall RMI is calculated by averaging the Current Conditions Index and the Future Indicator Index. Any number over 50 indicates that more remodelers view remodeling market conditions as good than poor. In the fourth quarter, all components and subcomponents of the RMI were 71 or above. The Current Conditions Index averaged 85, with large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more) yielding a reading of 78, moderately-sized remodeling projects (at least $20,000 but less than $50,000) at 88 and small remodeling projects (under $20,000) with a reading of 89. These readings indicate remodeling activity is strong across projects of all sizes. The Future Indicators Index averaged 72, with the rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in at 71 and the backlog of remodeling jobs at 73. “The fourth quarter RMI reading of 79 still
217 182 164 158
Life Spikes David Hughes 152 Tonya Esquibel 149 Harry Johnson 146 Steve Cates 142 Helmet Mundt 141 C.W. Bartlett 138 Nick Wisniewski 132 Jordan Clark 123 B.J. Hanson 122 Carmen Ryan 121 Steve Hewlett 119 John Zelenak 118 Steve Shalibo 115 Michael Dillon 113 Justin Hicks 113 Dave McGowan 112 Edsel Charles 109 Wiggs Thompson 106 Duane Vanhook 103 Brandon Rickman 101 Joe Morgan 94 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Keith Porterfield 81 Erin Richardson 77 Beth Sturm 74 Jody Derrick 73 Sam Henley 73
signals ongoing growth for remodelers into 2021,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “NAHB’s economic forecast predicts GDP growth accelerating as we enter the second half of 2021, as vaccination rates rise and the labor market continues to improve.” The RMI was redesigned in 2020 to ease respondent burden and improve its ability to interpret and track industry trends. As a result, readings cannot be compared quarter to quarter until
Lori Fisk-Conners 70 Ron Schroeder 69 Andrew Neuman 62 Marty Maitland 60 Christina James 56 John Broderick 55 Rick Olszewski 52 John Ganschow 51 Phillip Smith 47 Ricky Scott 45 Bryan Edwards 44 Frank Jones 42 Joe Dalton 34 Frank Tyree 33 Don Mahone 30 Jeffrey Caruth 26 Rachel Holloway 26 Spikes Ryan Meade 23 Perry Pratt 20 Nicole Bird 15 Tammy Chambers 14 Rob Pease 14 Eric DeBerry 12 John Nehrenz 11 MacKenzie Curtis 10 Will Montgomery 10 Chris Richey 9 Bob Bellenfant 8 Matt Dryden 7 Curt Haynes 7 McClain Franks 6
enough data are collected to seasonally adjust the series. To track quarterly trends, the redesigned RMI survey asks remodelers to compare market conditions to three months earlier, using a ‘better,’ ‘about the same,’ ‘worse’ scale. In the fourth quarter, 68 percent indicated conditions were the same as in the third quarter, 21 percent said ‘better’ and 11 percent ‘worse.’ The full RMI tables can be found at nahb.org/ rmi. n
February, 2021
l
The NAIL 15
FEBRUARY CALENDAR Sunday
Monday
1
Tuesday
2
Wednesday
3
Thursday
Friday
4
Saturday
5
6
Sales & Marketing Council Meeting
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
CHAPTERS & COUNCILS CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873. The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER
16 The NAIL
l February,
2021
Next meeting: to be announced. Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313. SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262 WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - John Nehrenz The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Nick Wisniewski The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Wednesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Lebanon Wilson County Chamber of Commerce in Lebanon. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526. The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.
Next meeting: to be announced. Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o). Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308 HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - David Crane. The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263 INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced. Price: to be announced. RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265. MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Christina James. The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: Thursday, February 4th. Topic: “Relocating to Middle Tennessee - a panel discussion with the relocation experts!” SMC Members FREE w/RSVP thanks to Franklin Lifestyle Magazine. Non-SMC members: $15 with RSVP; $20 w/o RSVP RSVP REQUIRED - LIMITED SEATING RSVP to cnicley@hbamt.org Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.
February, 2021
l
The NAIL 17
18 The NAIL
l February,
2021