The Nail, May, 2016

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NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Randall Smith Vice President John Zelenak Secretary/Treasurer Keith Porterfield Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Pat Newsome

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 9 HBAMT Spring Membership Mixer recap

The Spring Membership Mixer at the Sutler Saloon drew a big crowd who enjoyed the terrific venue and great food thanks to the event’s sponsors (listed on page eight).

11 Remodeling right: diy or call a professional?

May is National Home Remodeling Month; if you want your renovation project done right, call an HBAMT remodeler.

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 13 SPIKE Club Report 14 May Calendar 14 Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER: May is National Home Remodeling Month.

Find tips on tackling your next home renovation project on page eleven.

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news&info

Remodeling industry poised for growth despite index dip

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he National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 54 in the first quarter of 2016, dipping four points below the previous quarter but remaining in positive territory above 50.

An RMI above 50 indicates that more remodelers report market activity is higher (compared to the prior quarter) than report it is lower. The overall RMI averages ratings of current remodeling activity with indicators of future remodeling activity.

“Remodelers were solidly booked for jobs in the first quarter of 2016 but calls and appointments for work slowed down in comparison to the end of 2015,” said 2016 NAHB Remodelers Chair Tim Shigley, CAPS, CGP, GMB, GMR, a remodeler from Wichita, Kan. “Volatility in the financial markets during the first quarter may have impacted consumers’ readiness to commit to projects.”

While the future market conditions of the index dipped slightly, we still anticipate growth in the industry over the course of 2016.

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The RMI’s current market conditions index stands at 55, decreasing by a single point from the previous quarter. Among its components, major additions and alterations continued gains from the previous quarter, rising to 55 from 54. The smaller remodeling projects component decreased two points to 54, and the home maintenance and repair component of the RMI decreased two points to 56.

At 53, the RMI’s future market conditions index decreased six points from the previous quarter. Among its four components, calls for bids decreased to 51 from 58, the amount of work committed fell to 52 from 57 and appointments for proposals dropped to 52 from 60. Meanwhile, the backlog of remodeling jobs decreased only three points to 58 from the previous quarter’s reading and high-water mark of 61.

“Minor declines in the small additions and maintenance categories coupled with a slight uptick in major additions resulted in a flat outcome for current market conditions,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “While the future market conditions of the index dipped slightly, we still anticipate modest growth in the remodeling industry over the course of 2016.”

For data tables on the RMI, visit www.nahb. org/rmi. For more information about remodeling, visit www.nahb.org/remodel. n

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*see page 12 (twelve) of this issue. ** see page 10 (ten) of this issue.

New home sales relatively unchanged in March

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ales of newly built, single-family homes fell 1.5 percent in March from an upwardly revised February read-

ing to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000 units, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and

Housing starts down in March, builder confidence holds firm

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ationwide housing starts fell 8.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.089 million units in March, according to newly released data from the U.S. Housing and Urban Development and the Commerce Department. Overall permit issuance was also down 7.7 percent.

“Single-family starts are off from their strong showing in February but this slowdown represents a return to a long-run, gradual growth trend that is consistent with builder confidence levels, which are overall positive,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “While we are also seeing a monthly decline on the multifamily front, multifamily construction is expected to level off at a solid rate given the high level of rental housing demand.”

“Starts are up at a double-digit rate from a year ago and builders remain fairly optimistic that more consumers will return to the housing market in the months ahead,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady.

Both housing sectors posted production declines this month. Single-family housing starts fell 9.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 764,000 units in March while multifamily starts dropped 8.5 percent to 312,000 units. On a year-over-year basis, however, single-family starts were up 22.6 percent.

Combined single- and multifamily starts fell in three of the four regions in March. The Mid-

west, West and South posted respective losses of 25.4 percent, 15.7 percent and 8.4 percent.

The Northeast registered a 61.3 percent gain.

Single-family permits fell 1.2 percent to a rate of 727,000 while multifamily permits dropped 20.5 percent to 359,000.

All four regions posted permit losses in March. The Northeast, Midwest, South and West posted respective drops of 17.9 percent, 3.1 percent, 3.2 percent and 15.4 percent..

Builder confidence holds steady Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained unchanged in April at a level of 58 on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“Builder confidence has held firm at 58 for three consecutive months, showing that the sin-

Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Builders are slowly raising inventory as they remain cautious about the housing recovery,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, a home builder and developer from Bloomington, Ill. “Though sales were flat this month, they are running modestly higher on a year-overyear basis,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “We expect the sales pace to rise through 2016, given ongoing low mortgage interest rates and healthy job creation.”

The inventory of new homes for sale rose to 246,000 in March, which is a 5.8-month supply at the current sales pace. The median sales price of new houses sold in March was $288,000.

Regionally, new home sales rose 18.5 percent in the Midwest and 5 percent in the South. Sales were unchanged in the Northeast and fell 23.6 percent in the West. n

gle-family housing sector continues to recover at a slow but consistent pace,” said Brady, a home builder and developer from Bloomington, Ill. “As we enter the spring home buying season, we should see the market move forward.”

“Builders remain cautiously optimistic about construction growth in 2016,” said Dietz. “Solid job creation and low mortgage interest rates will sustain continued gains in the single-family housing market in the months ahead.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.”

The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI components measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 62, and the index gauging buyer traffic also increased a single point to 44. Meanwhile, the component charting current sales conditions fell two points to 63.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, all four regions registered slight declines. The Northeast and West each fell two points to 44 and 67, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Midwest and South each posted respective one-point losses to 57 and 58. n

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news&info

Single family sector leads housing to higher ground

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teady job growth, affordable home prices, attractive mortgage interest rates and pentup demand will help the housing market continue on a gradual upward trajectory in the year ahead, according to economists who participated in last month’s NAHB Spring Construction Forecast Webinar. However, supply side headwinds led by a shortage of construction lots and labor, along with tight access to acquisition, construction and development (AD&C) loans, continue to hamper a more robust recovery.

“Builders remain cautiously optimistic about market conditions,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “2016 should be the first year since the Great Recession in which the growth rate for single-family production exceeds that of multifamily. And we see single-family growth accelerating in 2017 as the supply side chain mends and we can expand production.”

Steady job growth has bolstered consumer confidence and rekindled housing demand. Nationally, payroll employment has surpassed its pre-recession peak by a modest margin and only

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a small number of states lag behind pre-recession levels.

The Forecast Looking at the forecast, single-family production is expected to post a 14 percent gain in 2016 to 812,000 units and rise an additional 19 percent to 964,000 units in 2017.

Using the 2000-2003 period as a healthy benchmark when single-family starts averaged 1.3 million units on an annual basis, NAHB is projecting that single-family production, which bottomed out at an average of 27 percent of normal production in early 2009, will rise to 64 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of this year and climb to 77 percent of normal by the end of 2017. Single-family production currently stands at 58 percent of normal activity.

“The goal of millennials is to purchase a single-family home in the suburbs,” said Dietz. “We see growth for single-family looking ahead. The recovery continues and is dictated by demand side conditions and supply side headwinds.”

On the multifamily side, production ran at 395,000 units last year, above the 331,000 rate that is considered a normal level of production.

Multifamily starts are expected to decline 4 percent to 379,000 units this year and rise 6 percent to 402,000 units in 2017.

Residential remodeling activity is expected to increase 3.3 percent in 2016 over last year and rise an additional 1.3 percent in 2017.

The Best Year Since 2006 Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac, cited several factors that should make this year’s home sales the best in a decade: - Household formations are projected to accelerate.

Between 2008 and 2014, the slowdown resulted in 5.1 million fewer household formations than normal.

- Purchase applications show solid home sales that match demographics.

- More owners are current on their mortgages, with fewer defaults and less foreclosures.

- Solid job gains include rising salaries and wages.

- House prices are rising about 6 percent annually and appear roughly in line with incomes and rents.

“Demographic tailwinds are helping to propel the housing market forward,” said Kiefer.

Freddie Mac is projecting 5.9 (cont’d on page 13)

Spring Mixer!

Big fun at the Sutler Saloon last month thanks to big crowds and our generous sponsors (see page eight).

HBAMT President Randall Smith and Andy Wyatt.

Carmen Ryan, Sam Carbine, Mitzi Spann and James Carbine.

David Crane and Steve Cates.

Beth Taylor, Angela Prichard and Jennifer Earnest.

At the Shaw Floors table, one of the night’s big sponsors!

Big crowds filled the Sutler Saloon throughout the mixer!

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Don’t miss the 2016 HBAMT Fishing Tournament, Tuesday, MAY 24 at Four Corners Marina!

We’re putting the fun back in fishing! Come fish and enjoy the day meeting other HBA Members and try your luck in winning $1000. Any day on the water is better than a day in the office!

BLAST OFF

5:00 AM Breakfast Served!

WEIGH IN

3:00 PM

AWARDS 4:00 PM

PRESENTED

Entry Fee: $150 Per Boat - Team Entry (two persons)

Voluntary $10 Cash Entry for BIG FISH Pot on the Day of the Tournament

Three (3) Places - Total Team Weight - Based On 40 Boats 1st Place - $1,000 | 2nd Place - $500 | 3rd Place - $250

All Boats Must Consist Of ONE HBAMT MEMBER Or An Employee Of A Member Company Check enclosed for my TEAM in the amount of $ ________________ (team entries only) All Entry Fees MUST BE prepaid in advance! a $25 per person charge will be added to any team entering after the registration cut-off or the day of the tournament. By signing this form it is hereby understood that tournament officials and the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee will not be liable for any death, injury or accident involving or caused by any entry in these tournaments.

HBAMT Member Company ____________________________________ Contact ______________________________________ Contact cell phone (

) __________________________________ Contact email ____________________________________

Address _____________________________________ City ______________________________ State _____ Zip ___________ One person in the boat must be a member (employed, not subcontracted) of the HBAMT - please check which name is the member and should be sent all Fishing Tournament information and correspondence.

Fishermen one (1) - name & signature: __________________________________ / ___________________________________ PRINT

SIGNATURE

Fishermen two (2) - name & signature: __________________________________ / ___________________________________ PRINT

SIGNATURE

Return completed form to: HBAMT - 9007 Overlook Blvd, Brentwood, TN 37027; fax - 615-377-1077; email - receptionist@hbamt.net 10 The NAIL

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Remodeling right: diy or call a professional?

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t’s fun and inspiring to watch TV shows about home design and remodeling – everything from the latest looks in countertops to whole-house remodels. And YouTube and other online video sites are chockfull of helpful how-tos and demos to assist home owners through countless do-it-yourself projects.

There are relatively simple home projects that can be completed

by DIYers, such as hanging pictures, interior painting, caulking, and changing door knobs and cabinet pulls. And, home owners with the correct tools and a higher skill level should be able to tackle some aesthetic work such as installing crown molding.

But it’s also important to know when to stop and hire a professional.

Remodelers can tell you lots of funny stories about siding installed upside down – and sometimes scary stories involving do-it-yourself electrical wiring gone awry. So before you buy the latest or trendiest gizmo for your home, ask yourself a few questions.

How much do you know? Replacing the exhaust fan over your oven with a built-in microwave looks like a reasonably simple swap.

But if you notice your kitchen lights are dimming when you zap your popcorn, you’ve probably forgotten that the microwave, unlike the exhaust fan, uses a lot more energy and likely needs a dedicated circuit.

A remodeling professional knows that.

What if it doesn’t work? That YouTube do-it-yourself video may make a tilework project look doable, but will YouTube give you your money back if you don’t lay it straight? Professional remodelers may not know everything, but they do take responsibility for everything they do.

Are there any unintended consequences? In today’s increasingly efficient and more air-tight homes, it’s more and more important to look at the house as a system. Your new windows are keeping out drafts, but how are they affecting your home’s air quality once the “natural ventilation” of the leaky old ones are gone? Do you need to look at mechanical ventilation systems? If so, how big? A professional can tell you.

How do you know if it’s right for your home? A professional remodeler can advise you on products, finishes and appliances that match your lifestyle, location, house size and budget and help you avoid spending money without a reasonable payback on either resource expense (energy and water, for example) or the sale of your home when you are ready to upsize or downsize.

And how do you find a professional remodeler? There’s a question with an easy answer. Contact the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee at 615-377-1055 or search the HBAMT online directory, www.hbamt.org/find_builder.cfm, to find a remodeler with the experience, educational qualifications and knowledge to do the job right – the first time. n May, 2016

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We would like to give you the opportunity to participate and be a part of the 2016 HBAMT Fishing Tournament. Along with tournament winners, terrific door prizes are handed out making the HBAMT Fishing Tournament one of the most fun and enjoyable events of the year. And none of it would be possible without the generosity of our sponsors.

We hope we can count on your sponsorship. Look over the available sponsorship levels, check your preferred level, fill in the form below and return it to the HBAMT at receptionist@hbamt.net or via fax (615) 377-1077.

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SILVER Sponsors $200

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GOLD Sponsors $500

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Two (2) Tickets to the Fish Fry “Get Your Name Out” on all signage at fishing tournament.

Mentioned in The Nail following tournament The Chance to pass out “goodies” at blast off and weigh-in.

Two (2) Tickets to the Fish Fry “Get Your Name Out” on all signage at fishing tournament.

Display ad in The Nail for 3 months The Chance to pass out “goodies” at blast off and weigh-in.

PLATINUM Sponsors

$1,000

Two (2) Tickets to the Fish Fry | Two (2) tickets to the Breakfast “Get Your Name Out” on all signage at each fishing tournament.

1/2 page ad in The Nail for 3 months The Chance to pass out “goodies” at blast off and weigh-in.

T U O D L SO

TITLE SPONSOR

$2,500

TITLE PLACING on all materials & signage at fishing tournament.

Full page ad in The Nail for 6 months

2016 HBAMT Fishing Tournament sponsorship registration form

Please bill me as a sponsor of the 2016 HBAMT Fishing Tournament for the designation/amount checked below:

o Silver ($200)

o Gold ($500)

o Platinum ($1,000)

o TITLE SPONSOR ($2,500)

Contact ____________________________________ Company ___________________________________ Address ________________________________________________________________________________ TELEPHONE/CELL ______________________________________________________________________ EMAIL ADDRESS: _______________________________________________________________________ Please print your company name exactly as you would like it to appear on all signage below: _______________________________________________________________________________________ 12 The NAIL

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SPIKE REPORT Life Spikes

Twenty SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of March 31, 2016.

Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Bill King 776 Mitzi Spann 711 Terry Cobb 567 Jim Fischer 566 John Whitaker 464 Jennifer Earnest 348 James Carbine 345 Kevin Hale 287 David Crane 280 Trey Lewis 275 Tonya Jones 271 Reese Smith III 261 Steve Moody 219 Sonny Shackelford 219 Davis Lamb 196 Tim Ferguson 176 Jackson Downey 174 James Franks 174

(cont’d from page 8) million total home sales, the

highest level since 2006, and 6.2 million in 2017.

Regionally, Kiefer said that house price growth is the strongest in the South and West, with Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Colorado and Florida all posting double-digit statewide house price appreciation between December 2014 and December 2015.

Back to Basics Also looking below the national numbers, NAHB senior economist Robert Denk said that housing market conditions are improving across the nation, but the pace of the recovery continues to vary by state and region.

“A common theme has emerged,” said Denk.

“The progress of market recovery is no longer a function of the boom and bust cycle marked by price bubbles, excess supply and foreclosures.

The key driver of the housing recovery is now back to the underlying housing market fundamentals of population and job growth.”

The hardest hit areas during the downturn included the “bubble” states of California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, where housing market excesses were the greatest, and the industrial Midwest, where the longer-term decline in U.S. manufacturing was exacerbated by the recession. Marked by solid job growth, housing markets in the bubble states are on the mend

Jim McLean 164 Louise Stark 163 Harry Johnson 146 Steve Cates 141 C.W. Bartlett 138 Tonya Alexander 128 Sam Carbine 128 Steve Hewlett 119 Carmen Ryan 109 B.J. Hanson 106 Dave McGowan 104 Johnny Watson 101 Julie DuPree 97 Jordan Clark 95 Duane Vanhook 91 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Erin Richardson 76 Wiggs Thompson 75 Michael Dillon 70 Helmut Mundt 70 Jeff Slusher 70 John Baugh 68 Don Bruce 62 Jim Ford, Jr. 62 Beth Sturm 59 Hill McAlister 57 Lori Fisk-Conners 55 Joe Morgan 54 John Broderick 53 Gerald Bucy 53 David Hughes 51 Christina Cunningham 47 Al Davis 47 Andrew Neuman 47 Benny Sullivan 46 John Ganschow 45 Bryan Edwards 44

while the Midwest continues to languish due to an ongoing sluggish manufacturing base.

The states with the strongest housing market recoveries are also among the leaders in payroll employment gains since the end of the recession.

The strongest housing recoveries to date are in Montana, North Dakota and Utah, all with robust energy sectors, which helped push them near or beyond full recovery. The next tier of leaders includes Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Alaska – again, all with prominent energy sectors.

While the collapse in oil prices since mid2014 will undermine the strength of the econo-

Kay Russell 44 Peggy Krebs 40 David Lippe 38 Andy Wyatt 37 Chuck Clarkson 36 Frank Miller 36 Randall Smith 36 Brad Butler 35 Al Hacker 34 Derenda Sircy 34 Ray Edwards 32 Justin Hicks 32 Dan Strebel 32 Steve Wheeley 30 John Zelenak 30 Alvin Basel 29 Marty Maitland 27 Spikes Don Mahone 23 Frank Tyree 18 Ricky Scott 14 Ashley Crews 13 Keith Porterfield 13 Gina Hewlett 10 Ron Schroeder 10 Don Alexander 9 McClain Franks 6 Rob Pease 6

mies in these states as their energy sectors contract, the extent of the weakening will depend on the diversity of the economy. “The basic principle remains the same,” said Denk. “A strong economy, whether helped, hindered or unaffected by the energy economy, will be a key factor driving housing recoveries going forward.”

In another way of looking at the long road back to normal, by the end of 2017, the top 20 percent of states will reach at least 102 percent of normal single-family production levels, compared to the bottom 20 percent, which will still be below 65 percent. n

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MAY Calendar Sunday

Monday

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Tuesday

Wednesday OSHA Class for HBAMT builder members

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24

Friday

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4

3

Thursday

Saturday

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Sales & Marketing Council meeting

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25

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4

10

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Diez de Mayo Membership Mixer

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Dickson County Chapter meeting

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Remodelers Council meeting

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Metro/Nashville Chapter meeting

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30

Piedmont Natural Gas Fishing Tournament

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Sales & Marketing Council meeting

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Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308

CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 306

DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at the Ponderosa Restaurant in Dickson.

Next meeting: Monday, May 16.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 307

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - BJ Hanson: 615/884-4935.

The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305

HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - Ricky Scott.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m. at varying locations.

Next meeting: Wednesday, May 18, at 4:00 p.m.

Location: Cenwood Appliance.

Topic: “Afternoon Mixer” at Cenwood Appliance.

Price: free for RMC members with RSVP; $15 for non-members with RSVP ($20 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 301

MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - John Whitaker: 615/843-3300.

The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Monday, May 23.

Topic: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 304 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Next meeting: to be announced.

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WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices until further notice.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 311 MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Jody Derrick.

The SMC meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, May 5.

Topic: “Avoiding Data Risks and Disasters,” with tech expert Bill Dotson, Rocker Risk, LLC. SMC members free with RSVP thanks to DeBerry Insurance; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 302.

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