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THE
NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Michael Dillon Vice President Trey Lewis Secretary/Treasurer Randall Smith Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Pat Newsome
THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee. SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027. Phone: (615) 377-1055.
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FEATURES 9 Single family production projected to take off in 2015
Economists at the recent NAHB 2014 Fall Construction Forecast webinar expect a number of factors to yield soaring production numbers in the year ahead.
10 2014 Holiday Open House Showcase entry details
Enter your homes and available properties in the 2nd Annual Holiday Open House Showcaase! For sponsorship opportunities, see page fifteen.
DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 13 SPIKE Club Report 14 November Calendar 14 Chapters and Councils
ON THE COVER: New home production should see big numbers in 2015 according to economists at the NAHB’s recent Fall Construction Forecast webinar. Story on page nine. November, 2014
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news&info
Infill Builders Council President Justn Hicks (standing right) welcomes attendees to the council’s October meeting at the HBAMT. Michael Garrigan from Dale & Associates addressed industry issues during the meeting. Special thanks to Markraft Cabinets for sponsoring the meeting.
New home sales edge up 0.2 percent from August rate
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ales of newly built, single-family homes inched up 0.2 percent in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 467,000 units, the highest level in six years, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales numbers for August were revised down from 504,000 to 466,000. “Three consecutive months of sales upticks demonstrate steady growth in the housing market,” said Kevin Kelly, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a
Consistent job creation and low mortgage interest rates are spurring the release of pent-up consumer demand. 6 The NAIL
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home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del. “Consistent job creation and low mortgage interest rates are spurring the release of pent-up consumer demand.” “The August revision was not unexpected, as this figure seemed out of line with the modest housing recovery we have been seeing,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “The continuing increase in the inventory of new homes points to builders’ confidence in the market.” The inventory of new homes for sale increased to 207,000 in September, which is a 5.3-month supply at the current sales pace. Regionally, new home sales rose 12.3 percent in the Midwest and 2 percent in the South. Sales were unchanged in the Northeast and dropped 8.9 percent in the West. n
Metro/Nashville Chapter President John Whitaker talks with guest speaker Bud Rodgers from Metrostudy prior to the chapter’s October meeting at the HBAMT. Rodgers delivered a local housing market update and forecast for meeting attendees.
The Sales and Marketing Council held an informative meeting at the HBAMT last month. The presentation, “Benefitting from HBAMT’s Councils, Chapters and Committees,” featured a panel of presidents and chairs from the various groups being discussed. A big thanks to Ole South Properties for sponsoring the meeting.
Remodeling Market Index reclaims all time high
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he National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI) reclaimed the high-water mark of 57 in the third quarter of 2014. This is the sixth consecutive quarter for an RMI reading above 50. An RMI above 50 indicates that more remodelers report market activity is higher (compared to the prior quarter) than report it is lower. The overall RMI averages ratings of current remodeling activity with indicators of future remodeling activity. “Most remodelers remain confident that the market is improving as home owners undertake renovations, large and small,” said NAHB Re-
modelers Chair Paul Sullivan, CAPS, CGR, CGP, of Waterville Valley, N.H. “The consistency and longevity of positive RMI readings are in line with the gradual recovery of the housing industry.” The RMI’s future market conditions index rose to 58 from 56 in the previous quarter. All four of its subcomponents—calls for bids, amount of work committed for the next three months, backlog of jobs and appointments for proposals—increased or remained level with the previous quarter’s reading. The current market conditions component of
Nationwide housing starts top 1 million for third time this year
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or the third time this year, nationwide housing starts surpassed the million-mark, according to newly released figures from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. Total housing production in September rose 6.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.017 million units. “These numbers show starts returning to levels we saw earlier this summer, where they hovered around one million units,” said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly. “We are hopeful this pattern of modest growth will continue as we close out the year.” “September’s uptick reveals that last month’s dip in production was more of an anomaly than a market reversal,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “I expect we will see a continued recovery as job creation grows and consumers gain more confidence in the housing market.” Single-family housing starts were up 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 646,000 units in August, while multifamily production climbed 16.7 percent to 371,000 units. Combined housing starts increased in all regions of the country. The Northeast, Midwest, South and West posted respective gains of 5.3 percent, 3.5 percent, 4.2 percent and 13.9 percent. Issuance of building permits registered a 1.5 percent gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.018 million units in September. Multifamily permits rose 4.8 percent to 394,000 units while single-family permits decreased 0.5 percent to 624,000 units.
Regionally, the Northeast, Midwest and West registered overall permit increases of 12.3 percent, 8.2 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. The South posted a 4.7 percent loss. Four month upturn ends as Builder Confidence falls in October After four consecutive monthly gains, builder confidence in the market for newly built
single-family homes fell five points to a level of 54 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released recently. “We are seeing a return to the mid-50s index level trend established earlier in the summer, which is in line with the gradual pace of the housing recovery,” said Kelly.
the RMI increased one point to 57 this quarter. A two-point gain was made among the categories of large additions as well as smaller remodeling jobs with readings of 56 and 58, respectively. “The stabilization of the RMI in the mid50s for more than a year demonstrates the slow, steady recovery of the housing industry that we expect to continue,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “The major headwind to a stronger recovery is a shortage of qualified labor and subcontractors in some parts of the county, making if difficult for remodelers to employ carpenters and finish projects as quickly and economically as many of their customers expect.” For the full report, visit nahb.org/RMI. For more information about remodeling, visit nahb. org/remodel. n
“While there was a dip this month, builders are still positive about the housing market.” “After the HMI posted a nine-year high in September, it’s not surprising to see the number drop in October,” said Crowe. “However, historically low mortgage interest rates, steady job gains, and significant pent up demand all point to continued growth of the housing market.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. All three HMI components declined in October. The index gauging current sales conditions decreased six points to 57, while the index measuring expectations for future sales slipped three points to 64 and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers dropped six points to 41. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast and Midwest remained flat at 41 and 59, respectively. The South rose two points to 58 and the West registered a one-point loss to 57. Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com. n November, 2014
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Construction Career/Job Fair at LP Field The HBAMT hosted a Construction Career/Job Fair Saturday, October 18 at LP Field. Representatives from MTSU’s school of Construction Management and other local educational institutions talked to individuals looking for professions in the construction and land development industry. And local construction corporations and industry affiliated companies took part in an effort to fill their vacant positions. A big thanks to LP Building Products for hosting and to event sponsors VF Imagewear. n
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Single family production poised to take off in 2015
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growing economy, rising household formations, low mortgage rates and pent-up demand will help single-family housing production to rev up in 2015 while a growth in renters will keep the multifamily market at cruising altitude or higher, according to economists who participated in the recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) 2014 Fall Construction Forecast Webinar. “Single-family builders are feeling good. They are not overly confident, but confident enough to keep moving forward,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. He added that the single-family sector will finish out the year much stronger than it began and set the stage for a robust 2015. “This is mostly due to significant pent-up demand and steady job and economic growth that will allow trade-up buyers who have delayed home purchases due to job insecurity
to enter the marketplace,” said Crowe. A Bright Outlook NAHB is forecasting 991,000 total housing starts in 2014, up 6.6 percent from 930,000 units last year. Single-family production is expected to rise 2.5 percent this year to 637,000 units, increase an additional 26 percent next year to 802,000 and reach 1.1 million in 2016. Setting the 2000-2003 period as a benchmark for normal housing activity when single-family production averaged 1.3 million units annually, single-family starts are expected to steadily rise from 48 percent of what is considered a typical market in the third quarter of 2014 to 90 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of 2016. Multifamily starts, which Crowe said are now at a normal level of production, are projected to increase 15 percent in 2014 to 356,000 units and hold steady next year.
Meanwhile, the NAHB Remodeling Market Index, which averages ratings of current remodeling activity with indicators of future activity, matched its all-time high of 57 in the third quarter of 2014 and has been above 50 for six consecutive quarters. A reading above 50 indicates that more remodelers report market activity is higher (compared to the prior quarter) than report it is lower. NAHB is forecasting that residential remodeling will post a 3.4 percent decline in 2014 over last year, due in large part to slow activity in the first quarter caused by an unusual harsh winter throughout much of the nation. Residential remodeling activity is expected to rise 2.7 percent in 2015 and an additional 1.3 percent in 2016. Housing Will Soon Be Undersupplied Taking an even more bullish outlook, Mark Zandi, chief economist at (continued on page 13) November, 2014
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Open up your available homes this holiday season during the Holiday Open House Showcase! Take part in the 2014 Holiday Open House Showcase this winter, Saturdays and Sundays, Dec 6th - 7th and Dec 13th - 14th. For two three-day weekends open your doors to potential homebuyers for only $500!
Holiday Open House Entry Fee
$500 Per home! For this low entry fee you will be included in the Holiday Open House Buyers Guide, a comprehensive listing of all the houses on the tour, be included on the Holiday Open House Showcase webpage, and all the promotional benefits that will come with an aggressive media campaign. Fill out the form on the reverse side and return it to the HBAMT -- indicate how many entries your are submitting and the level of your participation -- that’s all there is to it!
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Holiday Night Lights! For no extra fee you can take part in the Holiday Night Lights Tour! From Dec 6th thru Jan 7th we will be holding (and heavily promoting) the First Annual “Holiday Night Lights” event! Comprised solely of Open House Showcase builders who (AT NO EXTRA COST!) choose to participate, “Holiday Night Lights” entries agree to decorate their home and/or yard in seasonal lights and/or decorations. The event will be promoted along with the Open House Showcase as a fun, yuletide tour perfect for family outings during the holiday season! See your entry form for more details. .
The 2014 Holiday Open House Showcase December 6-7 and December 13-14* Saturdays and Sundays Hours: 1:00 - 5:00 p.m.
2014 HOLIDAY OPEN HOUSE SHOWCASE ENTRY FORM Your name: ________________________________________________________________ Company: _________________________________________________________________ Contact number: ____________________________ Cell: ____________________________ Email: _____________________________________________________________________ Number of entries _________________ Please indicate your level of participation for each home by checking the boxes below and listing the appropriate number of entries: r YES, I will have this number of houses open Dec 6-7 and Dec 13-14
______
______
Furnished
Unfurnished
You agree to enter these houses as part of the 2014 Holiday Open House Showcase event and will have them open to the public December 6th and 7th and December 13th and 14th, from 2:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. on Saturday, and from 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. on Sundays.
r YES, I will have this many of my entries decorated (exterior) as part of the “Holiday Night Lights” tour being held from Dec 6 to Jan 7
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In addition to the terms listed following the first agreement, you agree to enter these houses as part of the 2014 Holiday Night Lights Tour and will have them decorated from December 6th through January 7th. Additionally, while the HBAMT
does not charge for Holiday Night Light participation, the necessary lights and decorations that the event requires will result in a minimum investment of $900 or as charged by Red Nose Lights or a vendor approved by the HBAMT. In order to maintain event uniformity and a professional look at every location, all Holiday Night Light participants agree to commission Red Nose Lights or a vendor approved by the HBAMT to install their lights and decorations. RED NOSE lights: 1-615-979-2077.
*If you agree to be part of the “Holiday Night Lights” tour you will be expected to maintain your exterior decorations from Dec 6 through Jan 7th.
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SPIKE REPORT Life Spikes
Twelve SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of September 30, 2014. Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Bill King 776 Mitzi Spann 684 Terry Cobb 566 Jim Fischer 566 John Whitaker 400 James Carbine 336 Jennifer Earnest 327 Dan Stern 306 Kevin Hale 287 Tonya Jones 271 Reese Smith III 260 David Crane 250 Steve Moody 219 Sonny Shackelford 218 Davis Lamb 185 Cyril Evers 182 Trey Lewis 180 Jackson Downey 174
(continued from page 9) Moody’s Analytics, said that prospects are good for continued gains in overall economic and housing activity. “The reason is that job growth is quite strong,” said Zandi. “Currently, we are creating about 225,000 jobs per month, or 2.75 million per year. That is double the pace necessary to reduce unemployment and under employment, which augers very, very well for housing demand and the housing market more broadly.” With the current supply of housing running just over 1 million units on annualized basis, Zandi said that this figure is well below what is needed for the longer run. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, new household formations were depressed as the number of Millennials living with their parents or doubling or tripling up in apartments soared to about 3 to 4 million above normal, according to Zandi. As the economy continues to improve and these 18-to-34 year-olds begin to form their own households, this will boost overall demand for new housing construction. “In a normal year, there should be demand for 1.7 million units,” he said, adding that each single-family home generates about 3.5 jobs over the course of a year and every multifamily unit produces 1.5 jobs over the same period. Taking this one step further, Zandi said that increasing the housing stock by 700,000 units
Tim Ferguson 169 Jim McLean 164 Louise Stark 163 Harry Johnson 146 Steve Cates 140 C.W. Bartlett 138 James Franks 128 Tonya Alexander 127 Steve Hewlett 119 Sam Carbine 118 Carmen Butner 108 Johnny Watson 101 B.J. Hanson 100 Dave McGowan 100 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Duane Vanhook 85 Jordan Clark 83 Julie DuPree 82 Erin Richardson 76 Jeff Slusher 70 John Baugh 68 Wiggs Thompson 66 Don Bruce 62 Jim Ford, Jr. 62 Hill McAlister 57 Beth Sturm 55 Joe Morgan 54 John Broderick 53 Gerald Bucy 53 David Hughes 49 Lori Fisk-Conners 48 Al Davis 47 Sheila Rawlings 47 Michael Dillon 46 Bernie Laine 46 Greg Langley 46 Benny Sullivan 46
to meet this unmet demand would create 2.1 million jobs, which “would reduce unemployment by 1.5 percentage points.” By the end of 2017, Zandi expects mortgage rates to rise from their current rate of about 4 percent back to their “equilibrium” of 6 percent, which he noted would be very consistent with a solid job market and solid housing market. “The housing market will be fine because of better employment, higher wages and solid
economic growth, which will trump the effect of higher mortgage rates,” he said. He added that single-family starts could be closing in on 1 million units by the end of 2015 and multifamily production could go as high as 500,000 units. Housing and Jobs Go Hand-in-Hand Delving beneath the national numbers, Robert Denk, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis, noted the housing
Andrew Neuman 45 Bryan Edwards 44 Kay Russell 44 John Ganschow 42 Peggy Krebs 39 David Lippe 38 Andy Wyatt 37 Chuck Clarkson 36 Frank Miller 36 Brad Butler 35 Al Hacker 34 Ray Edwards 32 Dan Strebel 32 Christina Cunningham 30 Steve Wheeley 30 Alvin Basel 29 Spikes Don Mahone 19 Marty Maitland 18 Jess Dillon 16 Tracy Lomax 14 Justin Hicks 13 Frank Tyree 12 Derenda Sircy 11 Pam Smith 10 Don Alexander 9 Randall Smith 6
recovery will vary by state and region. “We are getting back to the point where economic conditions are dictating the strength of local housing markets,” said Denk. “It is very clear that those states with higher levels of payroll employment or labor market recovery are associated with healthier housing markets.” Energy-producing states—North Dakota, Texas, Louisiana, Montana and Wyoming— where job growth is strong are also at the forefront of the housing recovery while Iowa and other farm belt states supported by agricultural commodities are also running above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, states such as Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Alabama, Rhode Island and New Jersey that are coping with weak labor markets are also struggling to get their housing activity back on track. Housing nationwide bottomed out at an average of 27 percent of normal production in early 2009 and the gradual and steady housing recovery now underway across the land will bring nationwide single-family housing starts to 68 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of 2015 and 90 percent of normal by the end of 2016. In another way of looking at the long road back to normal, by the end of 2016 the top 40 percent of states will be back to normal production levels, compared to the bottom 20 percent, which will still be below 75 percent. n November, 2014
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NOVEMBER Calendar Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
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Sales & Marketing Council meeting
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Dickson County Chapter meeting
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Remodelers Council meeting
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Metro/Nashville Chapter meeting
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Sales & Marketing Council meeting
Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873. The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at the Ponderosa Restaurant in Dickson. Next meeting: Monday, November 17. Topic: to be announced. Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 307 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - John Whitaker: 615/843-3300. The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: Monday, November 24. Topic: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 304
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ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Next meeting: to be announced. Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.
Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o). Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308
SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 306
HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - Jason Broderick. The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m. at varying locations. Next meeting: Wednesday, November 19. Location: to be announced. Topic: to be announced. Price: free for RMC members with RSVP; $15 for non-members with RSVP ($20 w/o). Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 301
WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - BJ Hanson: 615/884-4935. The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526. The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m. Next meeting: to be announced. Topic: to be announced.
INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices until further notice. Next meeting: to be announced. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 311 MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Trey Lewis. The SMC meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: Thursday, November 6, 9:00-11:00 AM. Topic: Special educational event: “Agent Safety,” with Bruce Simms. Earn 2 CE Credits! Special thanks to HND Homes for sponsoring the event. SMC members FREE with RSVP; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 302.
Don’t miss out on the available Promotional Opportunities during the Holiday Open House Showcase! Take part in the 2014 Holiday Open House Showcase as a SPONSOR, or GUIDE SPONSOR this winter, Sat-Sun, Dec 6-7 and Dec 13-14. Return your completed form (reverse side) to hold your ad or sponsorship today! EVENT SPONSORSHIPS Title/Naming Rights 2 at $2,500.00 - Ownership of event in all advertising - Dominant logo signage at each entry - Full page in guide; logo on cover Gold Sponsor $1,000.00 - Large logo placement on all advertising - Large logo signage at each entry - Half page in guide Silver Sponsor $500.00 - Medium logo placement on all advertising - Medium logo signage at each entry - 1/4 page in guide Green Sponsor $250.00 - Small logo placement on all advertising - Small logo signage at each entry - Business Card ad in guide
Holiday Open House Guide SPONSOR
Secure your ad in the Holiday Open House Guide Book, distributed at every house on the tour! SIZE RATE Business Card
$125.00
1/4 Page $200.00 Half Page $300.00 Full Page $500.00 Return your completed form, found on the reverse of this page, to the HBAMT today to secure your space in the guide book!
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The 2014 Holiday Open House Showcase December 6-7 and December 13-14* Saturdays and Sundays Hours: 1:00 - 5:00 p.m.
2014 HOLIDAY OPEN HOUSE SHOWCASE SPONSORSHIP/ADVERTISING FORM I want to participate in the Holiday Open House Showcase as a (check each that apply and indicate your level of desired participation):
r Sponsor
- Level requested: _______________________
r Guide Sponsor
- Ad size requested: ______________________
Your name: ________________________________________________________________ Company: _________________________________________________________________ Contact number: ____________________________ Cell: ____________________________ Email: _____________________________________________________________________ Total amount of purchase: $________ Payment (check one): r Check enclosed
r Bill me
r Credit Card (details below)
Credit Card _________________ Credit Card # ______________________ Exp. ___________ Credit Card V-Code ____________
The “v-code� is found on the back of the card, usually printed or embossed atop or near the signature strip. It is comprised of three digits found to the right of a longer number.
After completing the above form, return it to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027 Phone: 615/377-1055 | Fax: 615/377-1077
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