The Nail, November 2020

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THE

NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President David Hughes Vice President Steve Shalibo Secretary/Treasurer Nick Wisniewski Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 8 2020 Installation & Awards Banquet next month

Mark your calendars now and make your reservations early for the Annual Installation and Awards Banquet.

9 Big night at the HBAMT last month for the Oktoberfest

The HBAMT’s 2020 Oktoberfest was held last month in conjunction with the annual general elections and Oktoberfest Builders Show.

13 Contribute now to the Showcase House program

Donate materials and/or labor to the HBAMT’s Showcase House program. There are currently two Showcase projects underway.

15 Sponsorships available for the Installation Banquet

Advertise in

THE

NAIL Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details

The HBAMT’s Annual Installation and Awards Banquet is set for Thursday, December 10th.

Sponsorships needed ,sign up today!

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 17 SPIKE Club Report 18 November Calendar 18 Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER: The HBAMT Oktoberfest was held last month.

More on page nine.

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NEWS&INFO

September new home sales pause, still outpace 2019

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ales of newly built, single-family homes in September fell 3.5% to 959,000 from a downwardly revised August number, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. Despite the monthly decline, the September rate is 32.1% higher than the September 2019 pace, and on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 16.9% in 2020.

“With sales up 32% from a year ago, the demand for new single-family homes remains strong as interest rates are at historic lows,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “However, the recent run-up in lumber and other material costs is leading to an increase in pricing.”

“The pace of new home sales growth over the summer was going to slow given that the gap between sales and single-family construction reached an all-time high in August,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “In-

September sales of new homes that had not started construction were up 47% compared to a year ago.

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deed, September sales of new homes that had not started construction were up 47% compared to a year ago.”

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed.

In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the September reading of 959,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

Inventory inched up to a 3.6 months’ supply, with 284,000 new single-family homes for sale, 32.1% lower than August 2019. This is the third consecutive month with inventory running under four months’ supply. Of the inventory total, just 48,000 are completed, ready to occupy. These inventory numbers point to additional construction gains ahead, as indicated by record levels of the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.

The median sales price was $326,800. The median price of a new home sale a year earlier was $315,700.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis new home sales were up in all four regions: 22.5% in the Northeast, 25.9% in the Midwest, 14.4% in the South, and 18% in the West. n

Housing continues growth, builder confidence at record high

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ingle-family starts showed continued growth in September as overall housing production increased 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.42 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The September reading of 1.42 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if they kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 8.5 percent to a 1.11 million seasonally adjusted annual rate.

This is the highest pace of single-family starts since June 2007. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 16.3 percent to a 307,000 pace.

“The housing market remains a bright spot in the U.S. economy, and this is reflected in today’s positive housing starts report,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Builder confidence is at an all-time high as buyer traffic is strong—another sign that housing is helping to lift the economy.”

“Home sales have exceeded for-sale home construction recently, which means additional home building in the near term,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Demand is being supported by low interest rates, a suburban shift in demand and demographic tailwinds.

However, headwinds due to limited building material availability is slowing some construction activity despite strong demand, with authorized but not started single-family homes up 22.4 percent compared to a year ago.”

On a regional and year-to-date basis (January through September of 2020 compared to that same time frame a year ago), combined single-family and multifamily starts are 11.0 percent higher in the Midwest, 5.7 percent higher in the South, 4.5 percent higher in the West and 1.4 percent lower in the Northeast.

Overall permits increased 5.2 percent to a 1.55 million unit annualized rate in September.

Single-family permits increased 7.8 percent to a 1.12 million unit rate. Multifamily permits decreased 0.9 percent to a 434,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a yearto-date basis, permits are 4.5 percent higher in the Midwest, 6.4 percent higher in the South, 0.5 percent higher in the West and 4.1 percent lower in the Northeast.

Builder confidence roars to record high In a further show of strength for the housing sector, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased two points to 85 in October, further surpassing the previous all-time high of 83 recorded in September, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. These are the first two months the index has ever been above 80.

“Traffic remains high and record-low interest rates are keeping demand strong as the concept of ‘home’ has taken on renewed importance for work, study and other purposes in this Covidera,” said Fowke. “However, it is becoming increasingly challenging to build affordable homes as shortages of lots, labor, lumber and

Sales are outpacing starts by a historic margin

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he home building industry has made a quick and dramatic comeback in the wake of the COVID-induced economic downturn. Housing demand has increased so rapidly in recent months that there is now an unprecedented gap between sales and home construction.

Sales of new single-family homes in August increased 4.8% to an annual rate of 1.01 million units — their highest pace since September 2006. Moreover, Census estimates and NAHB

surveys indicate builders are selling homes that have not begun construction in greater numbers. August sales of those homes are 69% higher than a year ago.

The strength of housing demand continues to be largely fueled by historically low interest rates and the growing appeal among consumers to live in lower-density markets. However, prospective buyers must content with historically low inventory of homes. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale fell to a 3.3-month supply (282,000

other key building materials are lengthening construction times.”

“The housing market continues to be a bright spot for the economy, supported by increased buyer interest in the suburbs, exurbs and small towns,” said Dietz. “NAHB analysis published last week showed that new single-family home sales are outpacing starts by a historic margin.

Bridging this gap will require either a gain in construction volume or reductions in available inventory, which is already at a historic low in terms of months’ supply.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 35 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.”

Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All the HMI indices posted or matched their highest readings ever in October. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose two points to 90, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased three points to 88 and the measure charting traffic of prospective buyers held steady at 74.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased six points to 82, the Midwest increased three points to 75, the South rose three points to 82 and the West increased five points to 90.HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com. n

units) in August — 40% lower than last year, and the lowest on record dating back to 1963.

In a recent Eye on Housing post, NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz wrote that in addition to the large gap between new-home sales and for-sale starts, “…low levels of existing inventory, rising resale prices relative to new construction and strong builder confidence … point to solid levels of home construction in the months ahead.”

Dietz also highlights several key comparisons of housing starts and sales that further illustrate housing’s momentum and growth opportunities in the near future. Read the full post here. n November, 2020 l The NAIL 7

the officers of the

Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee request the pleasure of your company at the

76th Annual Installation and Awards Banquet Thursday, December 10, 2020 5:30 pm (doors open)

Reception - 6:00-7:00 pm

JW Marriott Nashville

201 8th Ave S, Nashville 37203 LIMITED SEATING - RSVP REQUIRED

Tickets - $120.00 per person w/RSVP by Fri, Dec. 4th $130.00 per person w/RSVP after 12/4 RSVP to: CNICLEY@HBAMT.ORG

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Builders make the rounds inside the Builders Show tent during the Oktoberfest at the HBAMT.

Big fun at the 2020 HBAMT OKTOBERFEST!

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he Annual Oktoberfest was held in conjunction with the 2021 general elections and a special Builders Show last month drawing big crowds to the HBAMT offices. Local, state, and national director candidates campaigned for votes prior to the election while enjoying a great assortment of vendor exhibits and hors d’oeurvres provided by Oktoberfest participants and sponsors.

David McGowan and Roy Miles were the big raffle winners of the evening. McGowan won the Oktoberfest Raffle while Miles snagged the Builders Show Vendors Raffle.

A big thanks to all the Builders Show participants for making the event such a success. For a full list of event vendors please see page twelve.

Elected officers and directors who will serve in the upcoming year will be installed at the HBAMT’s Installation and Awards Banquet Thursday, December 10 at the JW Marriott in Nashville, Tenn. (See page eight for more details.) Look for all your 2021 leaders and 2020 award winners in the January issue of The Nail next month. n David McGowan with his raffle winnings!

With Michelle Martin and Andy Newman.

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Oktoberfest Builder Show!

Thanks to all the vendors who participated in the Oktoberfest Builders Show!

American Bath Group Atmos Energy Authentically American AZEK Building Products Bell Law Settlement Services Binkley Designed, LLC Blue Ridge Floors Boise Cascade Cambria Carpet Den Complete Insulation Contract Lumber DPIS Builder Services Farmington Mortgage Ferguson FloorMax 12 The NAIL

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GAF Hermitage Hermitage Hold Huber Engineered Woods Huskey Truss James Hardie Building Products Jeffco Flooring Jeffco Flooring Kenny & Company Kohler Kohler LP Markraft Cabinets Metro Carpets New South Services

Opportunity Landscapes & Nursery Parksite PDI Pella Window & Door Piedmont Natural Gas PPG Pulley & Associates Pyles Concrete Red Dog Dumpsters Schluter Sherwin -Williams Smash My Trash SteelSafe Shelters T-Square Engineering US Lumber VaVia

SHOWCASE HOUSE Fundraiser Program The HBAMT Showcase House program is an effort to generate funds to help fuel the association’s daily efforts to promote the home building industry and defend its builders against unjust legislative activity.

We currently have TWO projects underway: - The 2020 Showcase House at Nature’s Landing - The 2021 Showcase House at Hardeman Springs See the brochures below for a complete list of materials and labor needed for each project. Contact information for donating to each of the programs is listed below the brochure links.

SEE INSIDE FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF MATERIALS AND LABOR NEEDED FOR THE PROJECT. Visit http://www.hbamt.org/showcase_fundraiser.html for updated lists on needed materials/labor.

SEE INSIDE FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF MATERIALS AND LABOR NEEDED FOR THE PROJECT. Visit

For specific details regarding materials please contact Jimmy Franks: 615-794-7415 or franco314@aol.com; or Blake Parks: 615-243-6373 or blake@tennesseevalleyhomes.com

For specific details regarding materials please contact Steve Shalibo: 615-772-1019 or shalibo42@gmail.com

http://www.hbamt.org/showcase_fundraiser_2021.html

for updated lists on needed materials/labor.

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The 2020 HBAMT Installation & Awards Banquet

SPONSORSHIPS AVAILABLE! GENERAL SPONSOR

- Logo on all printed material - Two tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Recognition at Banquet

$600

PLATINUM SPONSOR

- Larger logo on all printed material - Two (2) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Ten (10) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet

$1,000

RECEPTIONS SPONSOR (2 available)

- Dual logos on all printed material - Signage at Reception and Banquet - Four (4) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Forty (40) beverage tickets of your choice - Increased recognition at Banquet

$5,000

TITLE SPONSOR (1 available)

- Headliner on all printed material with logo at Reception and Banquet - Welcome everyone & introduce entertainment - Table at Installation & Awards Banquet (8 tickets) - Sixty (60) beverage tickets of your choice

$7,500

Yes, I want to sponsor the 2020 Installation & Awards Banquet (12/10/20) at the level checked above.

Company name: _____________________________________________________________

Your Name: _________________________________________________________________

Your number: ________________________ Your email: ______________________________

Return this form and your company’s logo via email to cnicley@hbamt.org Fax: 615-377-1077 | Mail: HBAMT 9007 Overlook Blvd, Brentwood, TN 37027

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SPIKE REPORT Sonny Shackelford 219 Davis Lamb 215 Jackson Downey 182 Jim McLean 164

Twenty-two SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of September 30, 2020.

Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Mitzi Spann 784 Bill King 776 Terry Cobb 570 Jim Fischer 567 John Whitaker 565 Trey Lewis 496 James Carbine 405 Jennifer Earnest 375 David Crane 334 Jimmy Franks 325 Cindy Huber 307 Kevin Hale 302 Reese Smith III 261 Steve Moody 221

Life Spikes Randall Smith 153 Tonya Esquibel 148 David Hughes 148 Harry Johnson 146 Steve Cates 142 C.W. Bartlett 138 Helmet Mundt 138 Kevin Woodward 137 Nick Wisniewski 127 Jordan Clark 123 B.J. Hanson 122 Carmen Ryan 121 Steve Hewlett 119 John Zelenak 118 Michael Dillon 112 Justin Hicks 112 Dave McGowan 110 Edsel Charles 109 Wiggs Thompson 105 Steve Shalibo 103 Duane Vanhook 103 Joe Morgan 93 Brandon Rickman 89 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Christina Cunningham 84 Keith Porterfield 79 Erin Richardson 77

Beth Sturm 74 Jody Derrick 72 Sam Henley 72 Lori Fisk-Conners 70 Ron Schroeder 69 Marty Maitland 60 Andrew Neuman 59 John Broderick 55 Christina James 54 Derenda Sircy 52 John Ganschow 51 Rick Olszewski 50 Phillip Smith 47 Ashley Crews 45 Ricky Scott 45 Bryan Edwards 44 Frank Jones 38 Joe Dalton 33 Frank Tyree 33 Don Mahone 30 Spikes Jeffrey Caruth 24 Ryan Meade 21 Perry Pratt 20 Rachel Holloway 19 Nicole Bird 15 Rob Pease 14 Tammy Chambers 13 Eric DeBerry 12 John Nehrenz 11 MacKenzie Curtis 10 Will Montgomery 10

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NOVEMBER CALENDAR Sunday

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Thursday

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Saturday

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Sales & Marketing Council meeting

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CHAPTERS & COUNCILS CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER

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Next meeting: to be announced.

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262 WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - John Nehrenz The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Nick Wisniewski The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Wednesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Lebanon Wilson County Chamber of Commerce in Lebanon.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308 HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - David Crane.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263 INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: to be announced.

RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265.

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Christina James.

The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, November 5th.

Topic: “Selling Your Homes in a Multi-Cultural Market.”

SMC members free thanks to DeBerry Insurance Agency and Pinnacle Sales Group; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.

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