The Nail, November 2022

THE NAIL

The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Nick Wisniewski

Vice President Brandon Rickman

Secretary/Treasurer Jim Hysen

Executive Vice President John Sheley

Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027. Phone: (615) 377-1055.

FEATURES

Fall Fest & Builders Show at the HBAMT!

The association held its annual Fall Fest & Builders Show at their offices last month drawing a big crowd of builders and vendors.

2022 Pinnacle Financial Partners Parade of Homes

The 2022 Parade opened last month at the Rosebrooke community in Brentwood!

Big crowds swarmed the event to see the amazing award-winning homes during the two-week event.

Installation & Awards Banquet sponsorships

Sign up now to sponsor the association’s biggest night of the year. Return your registration form to the HBAMT today.

Chili Cook-Off entries still available!

Find your registration form here to take part in the HBAMT’s Annual Chili Cook-off, held in conjunction with the 2023 General Elections.

New home sales fall back in September

Risingmortgage rates approaching 7% along with declining builder senti ment stemming from stubbornly high construction costs and weakening consumer demand pushed new-home sales down at a double-digit rate in September.

Following a brief uptick in August, sales of newly built, single-family homes in September fell 10.9% to a 603,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Builders continue to face lower buyer traf fic due to declining affordability conditions as the housing downturn continues,” said Jerry Konter, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home build er and developer from Savannah, Ga. “Build er sentiment has declined for 10 consecutive months. The entry-level market in high-cost areas has been particularly affected, with growing numbers of first-time and first-gener ation buyers priced out of the market.”

“New home sales are down 14.3% on a year-to-date basis compared to 2021,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “More over, sales are now down 1.9% on the same basis compared to 2019 levels that were prior to the Covid-related changes to interest rates.”

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started,

under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the September reading of 603,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months. Notably, the new home sales data do not incorporate cancellations, which ac cording to NAHB survey data have more than doubled compared to a year ago.

New single-family home inventory re mained elevated at a 9.2 months’ supply (of varying stages of construction). A measure near a 6 months’ supply is considered bal anced. The count of homes available for sale, 462,000, is up 23.2% over last year. Of this total, only 56,000 of the new home invento ry is completed and ready to occupy. The re maining have not started construction or are currently under construction.

Reflecting rising construction costs, the medi an new home price in August was $470,600, up 13.9% from a year ago. However, NAHB sur veys indicate that a quarter of builders are now cutting prices, thus recent months’ price data re flects a composition change, with sales lost at the low end of the market pushing the median price higher. In September 2022, there were 20,000 sales priced below $300,000. In September 2021, sales in this price range totaled only 6,000.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales fell in all four regions, down 8.1% in the Northeast, 21.2% in the Midwest, 12.1% in the South and 17.6% in the West. n

Remodelers market confidence softens but still positive

TheNAHB released its NAHB/West lake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) for the third quarter, posting a reading of 77, declining 10 points compared to the third quarter of 2021.

“Remodelers in many parts of the coun try remain positive about the market,” said NAHB Remodelers Chair Kurt Clason. “In some areas, however, a growing number are seeing signs of a slowdown due to the ongo ing problems of labor shortages, high material prices and rising interest rates.”

The NAHB/Westlake Royal RMI survey asks remodelers to rate five components of the remodeling market as “good,” “fair” or

“poor.” Each question is measured on a scale from 0 to 100, where an index number above 50 indicates that a higher share view condi tions as good than poor.

The Current Conditions Index is an average of three components: the current market for large remodeling projects, moderately-sized projects and small projects. The Future Indi cators Index is an average of two components: the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in and the current backlog of re modeling projects. The overall RMI is cal culated by averaging the Current Conditions Index and the Future Indicators Index. Any number over 50 indicates that more remod

Single family production down, builder confidence falls

elers view remodeling market conditions as good than poor.

The Current Conditions Index averaged 82, dropping eight points compared the third quarter of 2021. All three components de clined as well: the component measuring large remodeling projects ($50,000 or more) fell six points to 80, the component measuring moderately-sized remodeling projects (at least $20,000 but less than $50,000) dropped eight points to 83 and the component measuring small remodeling projects (under $20,000) declined by six points to 85.

The Future Indicators Index fell 13 points to 71 compared to the third quarter of 2021. The component measuring the current rate at which leads and inquiries are coming in dropped 17 points to 66 and the component measuring the backlog of remodeling jobs de creased by eight points to 77. n

this worsening housing affordability crisis.”

Single-family

housing starts declined fur ther in September as high mortgage rates, ongoing building material production dis ruptions and flagging demand stemming from rising affordability challenges continue to put a damper on new home production.

Overall housing starts decreased 8.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.44 million units in September, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban De velopment and the U.S. Census Bureau.

The September reading of 1.44 million starts is the number of housing units builders would be gin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-fami ly starts decreased 4.7% to an 892,000 seasonal ly adjusted annual rate. Year-to-date, single-fam ily starts are down 5.6%. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 13.2% to an annualized 547,000 pace.

“Higher interest rates are hurting the ability of buyers to purchase a new home, particularly at the entry-level end of the market,” said Jer ry Konter, NAHB chairman. “Higher rates also harm the supply-side of the market by increasing the cost of construction and development loans.”

“The ongoing decline for single-family con struction mirrors weakness for single-family builder sentiment, which has now declined for 10 straight months and stands at half the level of a year ago,” said NAHB Chief Economist

Robert Dietz. “The September single-family production level is below a 900,000 annualized rate and the lowest level since May 2020.”

On a regional and year-to-date basis, com bined single-family and multifamily starts are 3.9% higher in the Northeast, 1.2% lower in the Midwest, 3.6% higher in the South and 3.4% lower in the West.

Builder confidence continues to fall In a further signal that rising interest rates, building material bottlenecks and elevated home prices continue to weaken the housing market, builder sentiment fell for the 10th straight month in October and traffic of prospective buyers fell to its lowest level since 2012 (excluding the twomonth period in the spring of 2020 at the begin ning of the pandemic).

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes dropped eight points in October to 38—half the level it was just six months ago—according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released to day. This is the lowest confidence reading since August 2012, with the exception of the onset of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.

“High mortgage rates approaching 7% have significantly weakened demand, particularly for first-time and first-generation prospective home buyers,” said Konter. “This situation is unhealthy and unsustainable. Policymakers must address

“This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts,” said Dietz. “And given expectations for ongoing elevated interest rates due to actions by the Federal Re serve, 2023 is forecasted to see additional sin gle-family building declines as the housing con traction continues. While some analysts have suggested that the housing market is now more ‘balanced,’ the truth is that the homeownership rate will decline in the quarters ahead as higher interest rates and ongoing elevated construction costs continue to price out a large number of pro spective buyers.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder per ceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI components posted declines in October. Current sales conditions fell nine points to 45, sales expectations in the next six months declined 11 points to 35 and traffic of prospective buyers fell six points to 25.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell three points to 48, the Midwest dropped three points to 41, the South fell seven points to 49 and the West posted a seven-point decline to 34 n

Fall Fest & Builders Show at the HBAMT!

TheHBAMT’s big Fall Fest & Builders Show drew big crowds to the association’s offices last month. Over 50 vendors and event sponsors took part in the big show hosting exhibit booths underneath the big tent and greeting builders with snacks, beverages, and good cheer.

A big thanks to all the Fall Fest & Builders Show exhibitors and sponsors for making the event such a success. n

Builders make the rounds inside the Builders Show tent during the Fall Fest at the HBAMT.

Roy Miles was the big raffle winner during the event!

Parade a winner!

The 2022 Pinnacle Financial Partners Parade of Homes drew some of the largest attendance numbers in its history during a successful two-week run last month at the Rosebrooke community in Brentwood. Big crowds lined up daily to see the six incredible homes and interior designs throughout the event thanks to strong word-of-mouth and social media buzz. The stunning homes wowed attendees and received a bevy of well-deserved awards both before and during the show.

Legend Homes enjoyed a strong showing during the event, taking home “Best of Show” awards at both the Parade Preview Party prior to opening day, and the People’s Choice Award presentations held during the show. Votes cast by industry professionals determine the

winners at the Preview Party, while votes cast by Parade attendees decide People’s Choice winners.

The much coveted “Best Interior Design” award went to Autumn flora Miklich, Bella Vita Designs, and the Ford Classic Homes team at the Preview Party, and to Stephanie Handley, Studio 36 Design, and the Legend Homes team during the People’s Choice presentations.

For a complete listing of all the winners from each of the award pre sentations, see page 15 of this issue.

A big thanks to our title sponsor Pinnacle Financial Partners for their support. Thanks also to the developers who hosted the event, CPS Land and Ford Classic Homes, and to our benefiting charity, Graceworks Ministries. n

Poolside at the Legend Homes Parade house, winner of the Best of Show award at both the Preview Party and People’s Choice Awards presentations.

Big crowds flocked to the Parade during its two-week run.

Melissa Milam and Autumnflora Miklich accept the “Best Interior Design” award for Ford Classic Homes and Bella Vita Interiors.

Rob Pease from CPS Land presents Brian Sipple with the “Best Foyer” award for Sipple Homes.

Keith Schumacher, Erica Spears, Abbey McGlashan, and Bailey Snyder accept the “Best Child’s Room” award for Schumacher Homes.

Rachel Tate and John Zelenak accept the “Best Lighting Fixtures” award for Aspen Construction.

Anna Bowlds, Paul Huff, Jim Harrison, and Julie McCoy accept the “Best Laundry Room” award for Stonegate Homes.

The Legend Homes’ team and their “Best of Show” award. Andy Ferguson, Justin Womack, Stephanie Handley, Joe Crider, and Matt Ruhle

Best Front Elevation

Legend Homes

Best Landscaping

Ford Classic Homes

Best Foyer

Sipple Homes

Best Kitchen Legend Homes

Best Primary Suite

Legend Homes

Best Floorplan Sipple Homes

Best Child’s Room Schumacher Homes

BEST OF SHOW AWARDS

Presented at the Preview Party

Best Outdoor Living Area

Ford Classic Homes

Most Livable

Ford Classic Homes

Best Home Study Stonegate Homes

Best Draperies Ford Classic Homes

Best Closets/Storage Sipple Homes

Best Living or Media Room

Schumacher Homes

Best Laundry Room Stonegate Homes

Best Wall Treatment

Stonegate Homes

Best Lighting Fixtures

Aspen Construction

Best Art Stonegate Homes

Best Craftsmanship Legend Homes

Best Interior Design

Ford Classic Homes

BEST OF SHOW Legend Homes

Best Front Elevation Legend Homes

Best Landscaping Legend Homes

Best Foyer Stonegate Homes

Best Kitchen Legend Builders

Best Primary Suite Stonegate Homes

PEOPLE’S CHOICE AWARDS

Determined by votes cast by Parade attendees

Best Floorplan Legend Builders

Best Outdoor Living Area

Ford Classic Homes

Most Livable Ford Classic Homes

Best Home Study

Aspen Construction

Best Closets/Storage Stonegate Homes

Best Living or Media Room

Ford Classic Homes

Best Laundry Room Sipple Homes

Best Craftsmanship Schumacher Homes

Best Interior Design Legend Homes

BEST OF SHOW Legend Homes

Left: Ford Classic Homes bonus room. Below: Sipple Homes laundry room.

Left: Schumacher Homes great room. Above: Stonegate Homes foyer.

Right: Legend Homes kitchen. Below: Aspen Construction study.

The

Awards Banquet SPONSORSHIPS AVAILABLE!

GENERAL SPONSOR

Installation

PLATINUM SPONSOR

- Logo on all printed material

- Two tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet

- Recognition at Banquet + Four (4) beverage tickets

- Larger logo on all printed material - Two (2) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Ten (10) beverage tickets of your choice

- Increased recognition at Banquet

- Dual logos on all printed material

$800

$1,400

RECEPTIONS SPONSOR (2 available)

TITLE SPONSOR (1 available)

- Signage at Reception and Banquet

- Four (4) tickets to Installation & Awards Banquet - Forty (40) beverage tickets of your choice

- Increased recognition at Banquet

- Headliner on all printed material with logo at Reception and Banquet

- Welcome everyone & introduce entertainment - Table at Installation & Awards Banquet (8 tickets)

- Sixty (50) beverage tickets of your choice

$6,000

$9,400

Brandon

Randall

Jim McLean

Tonya Esquibel

Steve Cates

Harry Johnson

Twenty SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruit ment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE?

SPIKES recruit new members and help the asso ciation retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of August 31, 2022.

Top 20 Big Spikes

Mitzi Spann

Terry Cobb

James Carbine

Trey Lewis

Jimmy Franks

Jennifer Earnest

David Crane

Kevin Hale

Reese Smith III

Davis Lamb

Sonny Shackelford

Nick Wisniewski

Steve Shalibo

David Hughes

Life Spikes

C.W. Bartlett 138

Jordan Clark

Michael Dillon 125

B.J. Hanson 122

Dave McGowan 122

John Zelenak 118 Justin Hicks 116 Edsel Charles

Duane Vanhook 112 Wiggs Thompson

Keith Porterfield

Jody Derrick

Sam Henley

Joe Dalton

Erin Richardson

Beth Sturm

Ron Schroeder

Nelson Bordeau

Christina James

Andrew Neuman

Ryan Meade

Rachel Holloway

Bryan

John

Jim Hysen

Rick

John Ganschow

Frank Jones

Ricky Scott

Lisa Underwood

Don Mahone

Margaret Tolbert

Kelvey Benward

Jeffrey Caruth

Maverick Green

Perry Pratt

Tammy Chambers

Danny Clawson

Eli Routh

Nicole Bird

Rob Pease

John Nehrenz

Chris Richey

Curt Haynes

Will Montgomery

Clint Mitchell

Randy Arnold

Bob Bellenfant

Matt Dryden

McClain Franks

Robert Goodall

Spikes

CHAPTERS

CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER

Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303

Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310

DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER

Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson. Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264

MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER

Chapter President - Kelly Beasley.

Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312

METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER

Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel

The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced. Price: to be announced.

RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org

ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER

Next meeting: to be announced.

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER

Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149

The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER

Chapter President - John Nehrenz

The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305

WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER

Chapter President - Margaret Tolbert

The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the Mt. Juliet Chamber of Com merce: 2055 N. Mt. Juliet Road, #200 - 37122.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

HBAMT members free pending sponsorship RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org

COUNCILS

HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL

Council President - Eli Routh.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets at varying

locations throughout the year.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Topic: to be announced.

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263 RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org

INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL

The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced. Price: to be announced. RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265.

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL

Council President - Lisa Underwood.

The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting and topic: Thursday, November 3rd.

Topic: “Looking at Today’s Changing Market,” with Kristine Smale, Senior Vice-President, Zonda.

SMC members free pending sponsorship; non-SMC members $20 w/RSVP, $25 w/o RSVP RSVP to: cnicley@hbamt.org