The Nail, October 2018 by Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee (HBAMT)

October, 2018

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We're Growing Again! We're growing our team—with the newest acquisition of Werthan Granite in the Nashville, Tennessee market! Apply online: www.Sims-Lohman.com 448 Chestnut Street, Nashville, TN 37203 • 615.503.9611 805 Airpark Commerce Drive, Nashville, TN 37217 • 615.503.4919

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NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Keith Porterfield Vice President Justin Hicks Secretary/Treasurer David Hughes Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee. SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027. Phone: (615) 377-1055.

To donate needed materials and/or labor, please contact Jimmy Franks at 615-794-7415 or franco314@aol.com; or Blake Parks at: 615-243-6373 or blake@tennesseevalleyhomes.com Visit http://www.hbamt.org/showcase_fundraiser.html for more details. 4 The NAIL

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FEATURES 9 Consumer confidence reaches 18 year high

Consumer confidence continued to rise in September, after a big increase in August.

11 First Annual HBAMT OKTOBERFEST!

The HBAMT’s First Annual Oktoberfest is set for Tuesday, October 30. Register now to participate in the event.

13 October is Careers in Construction month

Help promote NAHB’s campaign to raise public awareness about the great jobs available in home building.

DEPARTMENTS

Advertise in

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NAIL

6 News & Information 17 SPIKE Club Report 18 October Calendar 18 Chapters and Councils

Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details

ON THE COVER: October is Careers in Construction month. More on page thirteen. October, 2018

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news&info

New home sales rise 3.5 percent in August

ales of newly built, single-family homes rose 3.5 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 629,000 units after downwardly revised June and July reports, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. These downward revisions suggest softness in new home sales activity this summer. However, on a year-to-date basis, sales are up 6.9 percent from this time in 2017. “New home sales have ticked up in August, due to positive demographics and a strong overall economy,” said Randy Noel, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “However, housing affordability remains a serious concern and builders must manage supply-side costs and stiff regulatory

The solid economic expansion and firm job market should spur demand for new homes in the months ahead. 6 The NAIL

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hurdles to keep prices competitive.” “Housing affordability has taken a toll on new home sales over the summer, and there could be market volatility in the months ahead as communities grapple with the aftereffects of Hurricane Florence,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Still, we expect the overall housing market to grow this year as demand continues to increase among millennials and other newcomers.” A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the August reading of 629,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months. The inventory of new homes for sale was 318,000 in August. The median sales price was $320,200. Regionally, new home sales rose 47.8 percent in the Northeast, 9.1 percent in the West and 2.7 percent in the Midwest. Sales fell 1.7 percent in the South. n

Housing starts rise in August, builder confidence holds steady

otal housing starts increased 9.2 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.28 million units, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Commerce Department. The August reading of 1.28 million is the number of housing units builders would start if they maintained this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 1.9 percent to 876,000 units. Meanwhile, the multifamily sector—which includes apartment buildings and condos—increased 29.3 percent to a total of 408,000. “Builders remain largely confident because the economy is solid and demographics point to continued demand,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “However, affordability continues to be a concern for both builders and buyers.” While housing production rose, overall permits—which are an indicator of future housing production—dropped 5.7 percent to 1.23 million units in August. Single-family permits fell 6.1 percent to 820,000 units, and multifamily permits dropped 4.9 percent to 409,000 units. “Although we saw an increase in starts in August, we are likely to see softening in the market in the months ahead,” said

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Affordability is a particular concern because of home price gains, due in part to the high regulatory burden on new home construction. Increasing costs for building materials prompted partially by recently imposed tariffs on a wide range of products are also a concern. Moreover, interest rates are continuing their gradual upward climb.” Regionally, the West led the nation with a 19.1 percent increase in combined single-family and multifamily housing starts. Unchanged in the Northeast, starts increased 9.1 percent in the Midwest and 6.5 percent in the South. Led by a 19.2 percent decline in the Northeast, permits decreased in every region. They were down 1.7 percent in the Midwest, 2.9 percent in the South and 8.4 percent in the West. Builder confidence on solid footing Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained unchanged at a solid 67 reading in September on the NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). “Despite rising affordability concerns, builders continue to report firm demand for housing, especially as millennials and other newcomers enter the market,” said Noel. “The recent decline in lumber prices from record-high levels

Southern states posts single-family permits growth

ver the first seven months of 2018, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 521,438. On a year-over-year basis, this is a 7.0% increase over the July 2017 level of 487,495. The preliminary results from the New Residential Construction Survey are similar, year-to-date single-family permits over the first seven months of 2018 was, 522,200 which is 7.5% ahead of its level over the same period of 2017, 485,900. Year-to-date, single-family permits grew in the Southern and the Western regions of the country, while the Midwest reported no change and Northeast declined by 1.6% compared to July 2017 YTD. Western re-

gion had the highest growth in single-family (14.3%) while South recorded the highest multifamily permits growth (15.2%) during the last 12 months. Between July 2017 YTD and July 2018 YTD, 34 states saw growth in single-family permits issued while 16 states and the District of Columbia registered a decline. Colorado recorded the highest growth rate during this time at 27.6% while single-family permits in the District of Columbia declined by 69.6%, from 217 in 2017 to 66 in 2018. In the single-family sector, Texas led with 76,144 permits issued year-to-date in July 2018 and Florida came in second with 56,939 during this time. Meanwhile the

earlier this summer is also welcome relief, although builders still need to manage construction costs to keep homes competitively priced.” “A growing economy and rising incomes combined with increasing household formations should boost demand for new single-family homes moving forward,” said Dietz. “However, housing affordability is becoming a challenge, as builders face overly burdensome regulations and rising material costs exacerbated by an escalating trade skirmish. Interest rates are also forecasted to keep rising.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. The HMI index measuring current sales conditions rose one point to 74 and the component gauging expectations in the next six months increased two points to 74. Meanwhile, the metric charting buyer traffic held steady at 49. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose one point to 54 and the South remained unchanged at 70. The West edged down a single point to 73 and the Midwest fell three points to 59. n

lowest number came from the District of Columbia with 66 permits. The 10 states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 60.6% of the single-family permits issued. Year-to-date, ending in July 2018, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 263,897. This is 6.7% ahead of its level over the first seven months of 2017, 247,391. The preliminary results from the New Residential Construction Survey show an increase of 5.5% in multifamily permits over the first seven months of 2018, 265,400 compared to the same period of 2017, 251,500. Between July 2017 YTD and July 2018 YTD, 32 states recorded growth while 18 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline in multifamily permits. Rhode Island lead the way with a growth rate of 468.0%, from 25 to 142, while Mississippi had the largest decline of 76.2% from 917 to 218. n October, 2018

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Consumer confidence reaches 18 year high

onsumer confidence continued to rise in September, after a big increase in August. Currently, consumers are quite optimistic about both the current situation and the near-term outlook. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, increased to 138.4 in September, from 134.7 in August. It has surpassed the 2007 peak of 111.9 and spiked to the highest level since October 2000. Both the present situation index and the expectations index rose in September. The present situation index rose by 0.3 point from 172.8 to 173.1 and the expectations index jumped by 6.0 points from 109.3 to 115.3. The September increase in consumer confidence was mainly generated by an increase in the expectations index. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions improved. The shares of respondents rating business conditions “good” increased by 0.9 percentage point from 40.5% to 41.4%, while the shares of respondents

reporting business conditions “bad” and “normal” declined by 0.2 percentage point and 0.7 percentage point, respectively. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessments of current employment conditions were mixed. As the share of respondents reporting that jobs were “plentiful” increased from 42.3% to 45.7%, and those reporting jobs were “not so plentiful” decreased from 45.6% to 41.1%, those reporting jobs were “hard to get” increased from 12.1% to 13.2%. Expectations of business conditions over the next six months improved. In September, 27.6% of respondents expecting future business conditions to be better, increasing by 3.2 percentage points from 24.4%, while the share of respondents expecting business conditions to worsen declined by 1.9 percentage points from 9.9% to 8.0%. Expectations of employment over the next six months were more upbeat than in August. The share of respondents expecting “more

jobs” in the coming six months increased by 1 percentage point from 21.5% to 22.5%, while the share of respondents expecting fewer jobs decreased by 2.2 percentage points from 13.2% to 11.0%. The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home increased from 6.3% in August to 6.6% in September, perhaps offsetting some market concerns about declining housing affordability. The share of respondents planning to buy a newly constructed home and an existing home increased to 1.4% and 4.3%, respectively; the share of respondents who were “uncertain” whether they would buy a newly constructed or an existing home declined by 0.5 percentage point to 0.9%. Despite the monthly volatility, the trend in the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months has been rising. n

Conference Board Consumer Confidence - Respondents Planning to Buy a Home

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REGISTRATION TO PARTICIPATE

CHILI OFF COOK

So you think you make the world’s best chili (or soup)? Then put your chili-pot where your mouth isl

$50 per team entry. All chill/soup must be made from scratch at the HBAMT (you may cut and pack ingredients prior to arriving). Each team will be given an 8’x8’ space. Each chef must supply all their ingredients & cooking source. Chef’s can start cooking at 10 AM and must be ready for judging by 3 PM. You must cook at least 2 gallons.

Complete this form and return it to (fax) 377-1077 or (email) cnicley@hbamt.net to register*.

Your name: _______________________________________ Company: ________________________________________ Contact - Email: ____________________________________ Cell phone: _______________________________________ Team name: _______________________________________________________________________________________ Past team names have included“Road Kill Chili Team,” “Heartburn Connection” and the “Rootin’ Tootin’ Chili Peppers.”

*All team entries and chefs must be members of your company or the HBAMT. Companies may enter multiple teams and are allowed to merge with other HBAMT members to form teams.

SILENT AUCTION

Silent Auction items needed! Nothing is too small or too big. Donate by returning the form below today!

Donate products & services: lamps, sinks, faucets, windows, grills, tile, carpet, gift certificates, landscaping, decorating or cleaning services or other professional services, etc. Or other items: celebrity/sports autographs, event tickets, week at your condo, personal donation (cash), etc.

Complete this form and return it to (fax) 377-1077 or (email) cnicley@hbamt.net to register. Please give name, description, and estimated value of each donated item. Your name: _______________________________________ Company: ________________________________________ Contact - Email: ____________________________________ Cell phone: _______________________________________ Item Donated: ___________________________________________________________ Value: _____________________ ___________________________________________________________ Value: _____________________ ___________________________________________________________ Value: _____________________

Return form(s) to HBAMT today. Additional forms and info available at: www.hbamt.org/member_events.html 12 The NAIL

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Careers in Construction month!

ctober is Careers in Construction Month, when NAHB members and state and local HBAs participate in a national campaign to raise public awareness about the great jobs available in home building and related trade professions. The NAHB Careers in the Construction Trades page highlights the opportunities in six popular trades that are tailor-made to share with teachers, career counselors, students and their parents. The home building industry offers more

than just another job — you can find a rewarding career and earn a great salary. The top 25% in most construction trades professions earn at least $60,000 annually. And you don’t need to follow the traditional college path to get there. NAHB is your connection to the educators, industry members, and local home builder associations who can help you get started on your career path. Learn more about the opportunities to start building your career in six of the most popular trades; carpentry, electrical, masonry, painting, HVACR, and

plumbing. Be sure to mark Monday, Oct. 15 on your calendars for a social media day of action in support of Careers in Construction Day 2018. We’re encouraging all NAHB members to share the positive aspects of their chosen careers on social media using pictures, text, videos or however else you choose to express yourself. Just tag your post #CICDAY2018 to participate. To offer new ideas and ask questions, contact NAHB’s Greg Zick at 202-266-8493. Learn more at nahb.org/trades. n

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Exhibitor Agreement - January 11-13, 2019 FAIRGROUNDS NASHVILLE - NASHVILLE, TN Exhibitor application & contract for exhibit space

Return this completed form to the HBAMT to reserve your space at the 2019 Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee HOME SHOW. Return to: HBAMT - 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027 Phone: (615) 377-1055 Fax: (615) 377-1077 For more information please visit: www.thehomeshow.org

Name ___________________________________________________ Company _________________________________________________ Address ________________________________________________ City ________________________________ St. _____ Zip __________ Phone _______________________________ Mobile ________________________________ Email ________________________________ PLEASE LIST ALL PRODUCTS & SERVICES YOU WISH TO EXHIBIT - This is mandatory (please see rule #1 in show regulations) ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Do you have something new to the market? r Yes; please describe ___________________________________________________________ Estimated time you will need to set up your display ______ Will your display require special needs? r Yes; please describe ____________ ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Would you be interested in doing a seminar? r Yes; what subject _____________________________________________________________

SELECT YOUR BOOTH SPACE & REQUIRED ELECTRICAL CONNECTIONS

for Custom Space Size price, contact HBAMT offices with your dimensions; booth preference choices not guaranteed

Custom Space Insert Size

Exhibit Space Fairgrounds

10x10 Booth Space

10x20 Booth Space

20x20 Booth Space

Member Rate

r $595

r $1090

r $2000

r $______

Non-Member Rate

r $795

r $1490

r $2800

r $______

____ x ____

Standard Electrical Connection (110v) = $125.00* x ___ number of connections = $______ Electricity Industrial Electrical Connection (220v) = $250.00* x ___ number of connections = $______ Your total based on booth space & electrical connections $ ___________ (please pay this amount below)

YOUR TOTAL

A 50% deposit holds your booth; full amount must be paid before the move in date/time assigned by the HBAMT.

Booth preferences

Please list your top 3 booth locations (see brochure at www.thehomeshow.org): ______

______

*Electrical fees are subject to change if requirements ARE NOT requested by January 1, 2019.

Are you interested in an HBAMT membership? r Yes (Members receive reduced Home Show rates & other benefits; visit www.hbamt.org for more) Amount Enclosed __________

Payment: r Check; Check #______________________

r Visa/Mastercard

r AMEX

r Discover

Card Number __________________________________________________________ Exp. _____________________ V-Code _____________ Name on Card (please print) ____________________________________ Signature _____________________________________________ I HAVE READ AND AGREE TO ABIDE BY ALL SHOW RULES AND REGULATIONS - complete list found at www.hbamt.org/home_show.html Applicants signature: _______________________________________________________ Date: ____________________________________ 16 The NAIL

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SPIKE REPORT

Nineteen SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of August 31, 2018. Top 20 Big Spikes Virgil Ray Mitzi Spann Terry Cobb Jim Fischer John Whitaker Trey Lewis James Carbine Jennifer Earnest David Crane Kevin Hale James Franks Reese Smith III Steve Moody Davis Lamb Jackson Downey Tim Ferguson

821 763 570 566 556 415 390 363 313 300 267 261 219 205 182 177

Jim McLean Louise Stark Harry Johnson Steve Cates

164 163 146 142

Life Spikes C.W. Bartlett Tonya Esquibel Sam Carbine B.J. Hanson Steve Hewlett Jordan Clark Carmen Ryan Randall Smith John Zelenak Dave McGowan Edsel Charles Wiggs Thompson Duane Vanhook David Hughes Michael Dillon Justin Hicks Christina Cunningham Erin Richardson Beth Sturm Lori Fisk-Conners Don Bruce Keith Porterfield Joe Morgan Marty Maitland Ron Schroeder Nick Wisniewski John Broderick

138 136 135 119 119 117 117 117 109 107 105 101 99 97 95 89 81 77 71 69 62 61 60 59 59 56 55

Jody Derrick Andrew Neuman Derenda Sircy John Ganschow Bryan Edwards Phillip Smith Ashley Crews Ricky Scott Steve Shalibo Rick Olszewski Don Mahone Frank Tyree Christina James

50 50 50 49 44 43 42 42 39 36 29 28 25

Spikes Brandon Rickman 20 Jay Elisar 19 Frank Jones 18 John Burns 16 Perry Pratt 12 Kenny Burd 10 Will Montgomery 10 Rob Pease 10 Tammy Chambers 9 Bob Bellenfant 8 Eric DeBerry 8 Kim Carman 7 Stacy DeSoto 7 Joe Dalton 6 McClain Franks 6 Curt Haynes 6 Jim McCann 6 Ryan Meade 6

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OCTOber Calendar Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sales & Marketing Council meeting

Dickson County Chapter meeting

Remodelers Council meeting

Metro/Nashville Chapter meeting

HBAMT OKTOBERFEST!

Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873. The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at the Ponderosa Restaurant in Dickson. Next meeting: Monday, October 15. Topic: to be announced. Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - John Whitaker: 615/843-3300. The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: Monday, October 22. Topic: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER

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Next meeting: to be announced. Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o). Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262

HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - Ricky Scott. The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations. Next meeting: Wednesday, October 17, 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. at a location to be determined. Topic: to be announced. Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - B.J. Hanson: 615/884-4935. The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorship. Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon. Next meeting: to be announced. Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526. The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m. Next meeting: to be announced. Price: free for Green Building Council members pending

INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced. Price: to be announced. RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265. MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Ashley Crews. The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices. Next meeting: Thursday, October 4, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT. Topic: “Communicating with Cross-Generational Home Buyers.” SMC members free thanks to DeBerry Insurance and Regent Homes; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.

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