DEC. 2014 | Vol. 01
NUMBERS BEHIND GHAZIABAD 2014-15
Ghaziabad received the status of a Municipal Corporation in the year 1994
By 2011 the industrial city grew to a population of over 16 lakhs with a per capita income of `26,426
2014-15
Shipra Mall, Ghaziabad
CONTENTS About the Region ...........................................................
06
Real Estate Numbers Administrative snapshot .................................................
08
The ROI Index (Changing price trends) ..........................
10
Prominent Launches .......................................................
12
Quality of Life Index The Happiness Quotient .................................................
14
The Safety & Wellness Index ...........................................
16
Major factors to consider ................................................
17
The Proximity Chart ........................................................
18
Game Changers ..............................................................
20
The Outlook ....................................................................
21
Our Research Approach .................................................
22
Glossary ..........................................................................
24
16,36,068 Population
(As per 2011 Census)
(Includes Ghaziabad city data only)
Vaishali, Kaushambi, Indirapuram, Raj Nagar Extension and Crossing Republic
Major Residential Areas
Modi Nagar, Tronica City
Important Locations
15.97%
Planned Recreational Spaces
3,954
Population Density (Per Sq. Km.)
(Includes Ghaziabad city data only)
15,554 Land Size (in Hectares)
06
About The Region Surrounded by the city of Meerut on its north, Bulandshahar and Gautam Budh Nagar on the south and Delhi on the south west, Ghaziabad is a well developed town in the National Capital Region. The inception of the town of Ghaziabad goes as back as 1740. The town was given administrative status of a municipal corporation in the year 1994. Ghaziabad has seen rapid development and has a large population of over 16 lakhs. Kaushambi and Vaishali are the established locations of the region and boast of a larger population. The industrial town of Modi Nagar has a presence of many large scale manufacturing facilities with Tronica City too fast developing as a commercial center to reckon with in the area. This report would delve on various aspects of Ghaziabad, its past trends, administrative plans for the future, the level of happiness of their residents in its current capacity and future projections.
Happiness Quotient Our Happiness quotient showed a relatively low score for Ghaziabad with a lot to be desired. Lack of availability of amenities, high rate of crime, limited quality work opportunities in the region are a few reasons supporting this score. The Happiness Quotient of Ghaziabad gave it a score of 40.17% on the index. Read more about the views of the residents of Ghaziabad and what makes them happy staying here on page 14.
39.84%
ROI Index Looking at the investor’s outlook for the region Ghaziabad has not provided overwhelming appreciations in the past years. With focus on affordable, low-cost and mid segment housing the average rates prevailing in the real estate market of Ghaziabad are comparatively lower than other prominent parts of Delhi NCR. A higher yield is expected from properties here in the longer term. Affected by the weak economic trends, political uncertainties in the earlier part of 2014, prices saw a drop during this period like most other locations of Delhi NCR and the country as a whole. Read more about the future of Ghaziabad’s real estate on page 10.
Proximity Index Connected to East Delhi through the National Highway and having Noida and Meerut in close proximity. Ghaziabad has the presence of the Metro Line which is a big boon for the area and there are plans to further increase its stretch. The number of police stations, hospitals and malls are less than the required levels. Internal connectivity is an issue even though the area has the presence of wide multilane roads. This is primarily due to mismanagement of traffic and lack of administration. Ghaziabad’s score on the Proximity Index is 54.75%. It shows that there are avenues for improvement. Read more about Ghaziabad’s proximity and its significance in the region’s growth on page 18.
Safety & Wellness Index (SWI) The Ghaziabad District has limited quality medical facilities with only a handful of multi-specialty hospitals in the region. Law and order is a concern area with large number of petty and serious crimes recorded in the recent past. There is also a need for more police stations to cover the large area falling under the Ghaziabad district. Know more about the Safety & Wellness Index on page 16.
Quick Facts*
1 2 3 4 5
Ghaziabad Statistics: Delhi NCR Master Plan 2021, Ghaziabad Master Plan 2021 & Census 2011
A strong lower middle and middle class with a number of manufacturing facilities in the region. Maximum number of registered MSMEs as compared to other UP Sub-Regions (2009 report). New inventory supply is predominantly coming in Raj Nagar Extension, Crossing Republic and Indirapuram. Modi Nagar & Tronica City are some of the famous industrial zones in and around the area. Prominent developers like Shipra, Ansal API, Omaxe, Parsvnath etc. have projects here.
07
Statistics
15,554 Total Area (In Hectares)
44.84%
Planned Residential Use of Land
6.38%
Planned Commercial Use of Land
12.84%
Planned Industrial Use of Land
2
Metro Stations (As per Phase 3)
Average Price Trends of Ghaziabad Plots (In Sq. Yards) Min. 9,115
Avg. 12,643
Max. 90,252
Apartments (In Sq. Ft.) Min. 2,638
08
Avg. 3,859
Max. 6,337
The Real Estate Numbers About this section The section ‘Real Estate Numbers’ focuses on the ever critical financial aspects of a region that directly impact the price trends, appreciation levels and its future projections. This report of Home Makers has tried to provide decisive data from the city master plans, population census, on-ground and online studies conducted by the team that go a miss many a time. The ‘ROI Index’, a part of this section, is a fast evolving tool being developed by the team that amalgamates multiple aspects impacting price trends and acts as a guide for investors in their decision making process. The ‘Prominent Launches’ section lines up a few of the talked about upcoming developments in the region.
Historically known for its contribution in the first war for independence in 1857, Ghaziabad is also known as the Gateway of Uttar Pradesh, due to its location and proximity to Delhi. Ghaziabad has traditionally been an industrial town with a big manufacturing base next only to Kanpur in the state of Uttar Pradesh. With a heavy concentration of manufacturing facilities in the region affordable and mid-segment housing has been an area of focus. A number of such housing societies can be seen in the Kaushambi, Vaishali and Indirapuram regions. The city of Ghaziabad had a population of 10,89,201 in the year 2001 which grew to 16,36,068 in the year 2011. While considering Ghaziabad with Loni the population for the year 2011 stood at a little over 21.48 lakhs exceeding the planned population of the region which was only 19 lakhs as per the master plan. By the year 2021 this population for this area is planned to go up to 30,19,000 (as per the Master Plan). A large percentage of its land, almost 13% has been earmarked for industrial activities with a lot of this land still to be developed. Almost 45% of this land has been planned to put to residential use with majority of this new construction coming up in the Crossing Republic region. Around 6% has been shortlisted for commercial and related use. Tronica City a well established industrial and commercial zone in the region has as much as 2,824 acres of land allocated.
Amenities: NCR Planning Board- Water report (Regional Plan 2021) Statistics: Ghaziabad Master Plan 2021, Census 2011, DMRC map, Google search, Directorate of Education & Central Board for Secondary Education data, www.expedia.com, www.cleartrip.com, www.magicbricks.com, www.99acres.com,
Over 1700 acres of this land is still to be developed. Ghaziabad houses industrial units of a number of leading enterprises such as Bharat Electricals, Dabur, Uptron, Mohan Mekins, Bhushan Steel etc. NH 58 and NH 24 connect Ghaziabad to Delhi and parts of Uttar Pradesh (UP) with the former carrying on till the Indo-Tibet Border and the latter till Lucknow. The Eastern Peripheral Expressway is proposed to connect Kundli, Ghaziabad and Palwal while bypassing Delhi from the east. The region has limited Metro connectivity with stations in Kaushambi, Anand Vihar and Vaishali, with the latter being the latest edition. Vaishali is also one of the busiest stations in Delhi NCR. The prevailing water tables in Ghaziabad are one of the best you would find in the NCR region with the average depth at which water is found at 7.2 to 8.3 meters below ground level. At the same time it is also important to keep in mind that these water tables have declined by over 1 meter every two years between 2007 – 2011, as per the data published in the Regional Plan 2021. The good ground water levels can be attributed to the proximity to the Hindon (a tributary of Yamuna) and Ganga rivers, where as the fast decline has a lot to do with the fast pace of infrastructure development and industrialization that the town has seen. The area also has very high PM10 levels in the air which is also a sign of concern. The territory has numerous small and medium sized schools, colleges and other educational institutes. IMT Ghaziabad is a prominent Business School in the region. There are only a handful of hotels and other recreational avenues such restaurants, pubs and cafes, on expected terms with the region focusing mostly on affordable housing. As the table would show you price trends in Ghaziabad are at much more affordable levels as compared to most parts of NCR. The region has been primarily focused on affordable and mid segment housing which also describes the prices to an extent. At the same time with the market now introducing projects in the luxury segment especially in Crossing Republic these averages should see an upward movement in the coming years. The population of over 21 lakhs in the year 2011 is estimated to increase to a little over 30 lakhs by 2021* which should further populate the region.
Amenities 7.2 – 8.3 Mtrs.
Average Depth at which water is available Water level signifies: Moderate
106
Prominent Schools
149
Prominent Colleges
15
Prominent Hotels
280.5
Air Pollution (PM 10 levels) for year 2013
Moderate: 65-100
Population Graph Ghaziabad - Loni 9,68,256 in 2001 (Ghaziabad City) 21,48,000* in 2011 30,19,000 estimated in 2021 *19,00,000 Holding Capacity in 2011
*For the Gaziabad-Loni region Air Pollution: Average PM10 levels for the year 2013- Uttar Pradesh Pollution Control Board-Ambient Air
09
ROI Index
Price VS Growth (Price per Sq. Ft.)
2014
INR 3,859.00
-7%
2013
INR 4,169.00
37%
2012
INR 3,038.50
-5%
2011
INR 3,186.00
3%
2010
INR 3,091.50
1%
Major Sectors with Their Price Trends 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
3,779
6,119
3,083
5,909
5,514
2,935
4,853
5,476
2,836
3,749
3,421
1,956
2009
3,325 3,200
(Area)
Indirapuram
3,344 4,101
1,675 1,702
Kaushambi
Raj Nagar Extn.
*Closest to standard time period has been taken for the above price trends
2014
6,337
5,314
6,911
3,779
5,428
5,526
5,909
4,169
2,913
4,485
3,868
2,233
2009
3,868 3,302
3,216 2,942
2,003 1,926
(Area)
Vaishali
Vasundhara
Crossing Republic
2013 2012 2011 2010
High Return Period Signifies the percentage of real estate which has shown better returns
0.0%
33.33%
(<3 Years)
(3-7 Years)
In Short Term
In Mid Term
66.67*%
In Long Term (>7 Years)
*The figure has been taken as a projection keeping in mind the trend graph of a 7 year period
10
Predominantly established as an industrial town the Ghaziabad district is full of large and small scale manufacturing facilities. Since its inception the region has seen limited number of service sector enterprises being established here, with a few coming up in the last two years. It is for this reason that the territory has predominantly been confined to the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Low Income Groupâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;, Affordable and Mid Segment housing. The historic price trends of Ghaziabad show you a good resemblance of this fact. At the same time Ghaziabad has come up as a big town in NCR and has been growing in importance. It is for this reason that many tier two and mid segment developers have taken notice of the region and have started developing projects here. The Ghaziabad real estate market has been quite subdued with limited price movement though the inventory in the region is being added at a consistent pace. The year 2012 - 2013 has shown the highest appreciation levels in Ghaziabad in the recent years, a phenomenon in line with other prominent locations of NCR. As mentioned earlier the price appreciation graph of Ghaziabad has been quite stagnant except for the price rise of 2013. A constant flow of affordable housing projects has kept this price in check. Due to economic and political uncertainties the Ghaziabad real estate prices saw a drop just like other parts of NCR. The locations like Vaishali and Kaushambi have come up as the preferred locations in the region in the previous years and have shown a steady growth. Crossing Republic has also come up as a choice for many in the last two years, with a few luxury projects being introduced here. The dominance of industrial establishments in Sahibabad Industrial Area, proximity to the Delhi border has kept demand levels higher both in Kaushambi and Vaishali. At the same time both Indirapuram and Crossing Republic have also gained from their proximity to Noida and have been the first ones to offer luxury projects in the region. Connectivity through the NH 24 and 58 that connects Ghaziabad to East Delhi is an important zone for the region with majority of the prominent sectors & colonies established here. As you would see through the price trends shared that Raj Nagar Extension has steadily made a strong place for itself in the affordable housing segment. Some of the major locations with their price trends in the last five years are provided below.
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The ROI Index takes in to account numerous factors including past price trends, demand & supply factors, projected industry stats, consumer sentiments in the short term, planned infrastructural development and macro parameters that would shape the future of the region. As you would notice in the historic price trends mentioned in this section Ghaziabad has shown lower levels of price appreciation in the past few years as compared to other prominent regions of NCR. In the year 2014 this figure has also dropped by 7% due to political and economic scenarios. The ‘ROI Index’ graph for Ghaziabad shows a stagnant trend in the short term. Keeping in mind the projections for both gold prices and interest rates the short term projection for this region is not very bullish. With the NCR real estate market fighting from low demand and depleting prices, areas that were earlier not affordable by many are becoming affordable and hence prospective buyers in Ghaziabad may look for more convenient options. The current social infrastructure of Ghaziabad, its focus on affordable housing limits the region’s growth in the mid term. At the same time Ghaziabad has a favorable price vs rental yield ratio, where property price appreciation has been followed by adequate rise in rental rates, a phenomena that is not very popular with other parts of Delhi NCR. This would essentially mean that you would get a good rental yield that adds up to your overall appreciation of the property. The overall market scenario for Ghaziabad looks limited on the upside where average returns can be expected in the mid and long term. The ROI Index is a comparative tool and takes into account the developments of neighboring regions while estimating the region’s internal factors.
Key Factors to Consider Affordable housing has shown consistent return in the region barring the year 2014. Real Estate Prices vs Rental Yield have shown higher returns as compared to the Gurgaon and South Delhi markets. A good balance between growing supply and increasing demand has kept real estate prices under check. Highest return on investment is projected for the long term. Locations located closer to the East Delhi border have traditionally been more expensive.
Sources: www.magicbricks.com, www.99acres.com have been referred for both new bookings and resale cases.
The ROI Index Signifies the estimated trends of real estate prices.
Luke Warm
In Short Term (< 3 Years)
Luke Warm
In Mid Term (3-7 Years)
Warm
In Long Term ( > 7 Years)
Economical for End User Signifies the percentage of real estate which would have been more economical on rent or as a purchase
50% vs
Rent
50%
Purchase
Insights Focus on affordable housing for the lower-middle and middle class. Expectations of stable interest rates without much change in the near term and falling gold prices. With a larger portion of land planned for industrial facilities Ghaziabad may not find many takers for luxury and uber-luxury projects. Good rental yields as compared to South Delhi and Gurgaon. Metro is one of the life lines of the region; further extension of metro connectivity should have a positive impact on real estate prices. Limited availability of quality commercial spaces may keep a check on real estate demand by both investors and end users. Price appreciation in the East Delhi region and adjacent sectors of Noida will play a vital role to determine real estate prices in Ghaziabad in the longer term. 11
Prominent Launches With the development of Ghaziabad at fast pace there are a number of prominent developers that are launching and completing their projects here. Some of the areas where these developments are taking place are provided; The table on your right highlights some of the relatively new and upcoming projects, in Ghaziabad. The above list is not an exhaustive list by itself and does not mention the projects in any order of preference. Home Makers does not, at any level, promote or holds preference for any of the above mentioned projects and this list of projects has been added for information only. In order to cover the vast territory of Ghaziabad and its developments we have tried to include projects by prominent developers equally covering the Indirapuram, Crossing Republic, NH 24, Raj Nagar Extension etc. regions. The old well established sectors of Kaushambi and Vaishali have not been added to the above list.
12
While evaluating any project or locality we would urge you to study the following aspects closely The current status and planned administrative development of the location including its connectivity, amenities, social infrastructure etc. The nature of the project being evaluated and whether all the aspects of a township are being culminated in that region / pocket. Developer background and delivery of past projects both from the angle of time taken and quality of construction. The construction agency and other stakeholders involved with the project. The legal status of the land on which the project is being developed and whether or not the same is clear.
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Indirapuram Ghaziabad Indirapuram Ghaziabad Indirapuram Ghaziabad Raj Nagar Extn. Ghaziabad Raj Nagar Extn. Ghaziabad Raj Nagar Extn. Ghaziabad GT Road Ghaziabad NH 24 Ghaziabad NH 24 Ghaziabad Crossing Ripublic Ghaziabad Sources: www.99acres.com
Shipra Sky City Developer: Shipra
Estimated Completion: Complete
Gaur Valero
Developer: Gaursons
Estimated Completion: Complete
ATS Advantage Developer: ATS
Estimated Completion: Complete
Gaur Cascade
Developer: Gaursons Estimated Completion: 2017
KM Residency Developer: KM Group Estimated Completion: 2017
VVIP Addresses Developer: VVIP
Estimated Completion: 2015
Regila
Developer: Parsvnath
Estimated Completion: Complete
Gen-X
Developer: Ajnara
Estimated Completion: Complete
Wave Aranyam Valley Developer: Wave Infratech Estimated Completion: 2016
Paramount Symphony Developer: Paramount Estimated Completion: 2015
Quality Of Life
Scores
32.90%
Amenities Available
39.14%
Feeling of Security
49.37%
Proximity to Work
53.90%
Availability of Recreation Facilities
14
Disclaimer: In order to increase the accuracy of the above numbers the Happiness Quotient index has been appropriately molded and hence may have variations compared to the earlier reports.
About the Section â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Quality of Lifeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; index evaluates the equally important social aspects of a region. These aspects go beyond the traditional demand & supply numbers; price trends etc. and actually give you an insight on the quality of life in the geography being referred to. It is important to keep in mind that it is this quality that attracts a person to make the critical decision of whether to settle in one location or the other. There are many regions that have seen the initial rise in real estate and have been much talked about but never really developed as a choice to consider for the enduser. We at Home Makers believe that it is extremely important to keep an eye on this index for evaluating the development of the region in the medium and long term.
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Happiness Quotient
Highlights
(Higher percentages are considered better)
Ghaziabad was established as a district in the year 1976. Predominantly covered with industrial towns and housing a large population from these units, Ghaziabad has not traditionally scored well in regards to social amenities available in the region which is quite evident from the Happiness Quotient scores of this study. Almost 16% of the land in the district has been earmarked for parks, open spaces or recreational zones and with large tracts of land that still need to be delivered Ghaziabadâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s score in this regard is quite balanced. The Happiness Quotient of Ghaziabad came out as 40.17% which is much lower than most prominent areas of Delhi NCR. A few of the factors that went against the region are the limited social infrastructure in region like recreational facilities such as quality hotels, restaurants, cafes and related avenues, high crime rate much like other parts of NCR falling under the state of Uttar Pradesh and lack of quality commercial spaces. Due to the limited supply of high end commercial spaces in the region many residents of Ghaziabad travel long distances to Delhi, Gurgaon or Noida every day. It also limits the interest levels of end users who would be working in these spaces. Even after having wide roads, haphazard traffic management results in jams on frequent basis. Water logging, uneven roads with pot holes and mosquitoes also drop the rating of Ghaziabad on the Happiness Quotient. The feeling of security in the district, amongst the residents, is lower than Noida and Gurgaon with chain snatching and similar petty crimes common in the area. There is a lot to be desired in Ghaziabad in regards to the Quality of Life the region offers; one of the reasons why luxury and uber-luxury projects have not yet been popular in Ghaziabad. At the same time with the development of Crossing Republic that also offers a few luxury projects, rising prices in the Kaushambi and Vaishali sectors Ghaziabad is bound to make an improvement on this index.
Lack of quality commercial spaces and heavy dependency on industrial jobs in close vicinity Safety levels in the area are a concern, and worse off than the other prominent zones of Delhi NCR Lack of quality social infrastructure such as schools, hotels, hospitals, restaurants and cafes. Lack of management of amenities such as electricity supply, water and roads. Receiving inflated electricity bills is a common practice in the area.
15
39.84%
Scores The below data is indicative and represents a comparison with other regions of Delhi NCR.
Safety & Wellness Index (Higher percentages are considered better)
51.97% Air Pollution
16.54%
Crimes Under IPC
2.26%
Connectivity/ Reach of Police Stations
2.03%
Connectivity/ Reach of Hospitals Only Multi-Speciality
Highlights Crime rate levels in Ghaziabad have been higher as compared to other prominent locations of Delhi NCR. The availability of police stations and multi-specialty hospitals keeping in mind the size of Ghaziabad is low. Moderate quality of air, open drainage systems and sewage negatively impact the rankings of the system. Petty crimes are popular in the area and the administration is making plans to tackle the same.
16
Limited medical facilities to meet the requirements of over 15,000 hectares of land, a high rate of crime and low number of police stations / related infrastructure to keep a check on crime levels is the reality that Ghaziabad currently faces. It is for this reason that it scores only 39.84% in the SWI. As is quite evident through these numbers Ghaziabad has a lot of room for improvement when it comes to making its residents secure. In fact this is one of the glaring issues that came out of the on ground studies Home Makers conducted in the region. There are only a handful of multispecialty hospitals in the region. Some of the more popular ones like Yashoda Hospital, Rama Super Specialty Hospital & Research Center, Arogya Hospital are present here though there is a need for many more. Ghaziabad has been notoriously known for a high crime rate. Incidents of petty thefts are very common here with crime against women also prevalent. Many incidents of chain snatching and eave teasing have been recorded in the recent past. Though steps are being taken by the administration in this regard a lot more needs to be done. In fact the crime rates have been quite high across the NCR territories that fall under the state of Uttar Pradesh. This fact was clearly visible from our on-ground discussions with the residents of Ghaziabad. Air quality in Ghaziabad was in line with other parts of NCR and scored a modest 51.97%. Surrounded by industrial towns and possessing a number of manufacturing facilities within its own territory pollution has been an issue that Ghaziabad had to tackle with. Though they have maintained a reasonable environment around. It is important to keep in mind that with the population of Ghaziabad & Loni set to increase to over 3,000,000 by 2021, the maintenance of law and order and providing the basic amenities to the public would become even more challenging.
Interesting Facts It is hence pivotal for the administration to start taking steps in this regard. Another area that needs to be taken into account is the drainage and sewage systems in the sectors which are cause of a lot of distress amongst residents. Water logging at multiple locations has lead to a high presence of mosquitoes and related health issues. The SWI shows an accurate picture of the region and appropriately shares the views of its residents. The overall rating of Ghaziabad in the Safety & Wellness Index has scope for improvement. This index is bound to show some interesting results in the coming years and would play an integral part in Ghaziabadâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s development.
Social Factors to Consider A quick survey undertaken by the Home Makers team in the region showed some eye opening facts about the region and should surely be considered while making a decision on whether or not to stay or invest in the region. The results are part of a sample survey conducted in Ghaziabad in the regions of
Vaishali, Vaishali Extn., Vaibhav Khand, Shipra Suncity, Shakti Khand & Kaushambi. The survey
equally covered residents of all ages, men & women, working professionals and non-working population, employed people and businessmen. A sample size of over 400 respondents has been put together for this study. The above trends may not cover the entire population of this region but do give an indication to the current scenarios prevailing here.
The statements show the top responses and the respective percentages
Ghaziabad scores well in regards to malls & market places with accessibility as its other highlight. Connectivity to amenities & Market Places
44.13%
Accessibility to basic amenities
40.22%
Greenery & Open Spaces
15.64%
A higher percentage of service class and employed personnel formed a majority of the respondents whereas the self employed category had a 27% coverage. Service
41.96%
Retired / Others
30.59%
Business
27.45%
Ghaziabad had a balanced number when it came to its respondents' work areas with a little over 50% working less than 8 kms away from their residence. Under 3 kms
41.94%
3 - 8 kms
12.44%
8 - 15 kms
18.43%
More than 15 kms
27.19%
Safety and cleanliness have been glaring issues concerning the area with frequent power cuts also a reality. Safety Concern
41.71%
Cleanliness Issues
36.00%
Power Cuts & Water Supply
22.29%
17
Proximity Index The chart highlights Ghaziabadâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s proximity score to various prominent locations, landmarks, connectivity zones and nearest amenities within the region. It is important to keep in mind that a critical aspect for development or appreciation of any region is its location and proximity to all important parts of the city and amenities / services.
Proximity Chart
Connectivity This shows representative figures and not the actual proximity to a location. The higher the amenity or location/ zone on the above scale the closer it is estimated to be in the region.
63.0%
Critical Transportation Points
62.1%
Prominent Junctions
46.9%
Amenities & Public Conveniences
54.75% Proximity Index
49.37%
Distance from work place score
70.7% Market Connectivity Score
18
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Closest
farthest
90%
70%
Avg. distance from nearest
Avg. distance from nearest
Metro station Railway Station
Avg. distance Avg. distance from from
NH 24
23
NH 58
Multi-Specialty Hospitals
50%
30%
Avg. distance from nearest
10%
Avg. Distance from
Airport
ISBT Anand Vihar
Avg. distance from
Avg. distance from
Ring Road, Delhi
Kundli Manesar Palwal Expressway
16 15
Police Stations
Hotels
10 Malls
19
Key Factors Focus on Commercial Centers
As per the 2021 Ghaziabad Master Plan more than 900 hectares of land needs to be put to commercial and office use. A large part of this development is still to take place. It would be important to keep an eye on the speed and nature of development that takes place in this regard. It is obvious that more employment opportunities will lead to a higher real estate demand in the region.
Be an area of choice for new entrant MNCs
Even though there is a big thrust on industrial operations in the region it is pivotal that more service sector opportunities are introduced here. It is only then that the takers for this large inventory of residential units, that are being constructed, increase.
Development of Surrounding Micro Cities Noida, Greater Noida, Meerut & Industrial pockets such as Modi Nagar, Loni would play a key role in driving the residential demands for Ghaziabad. With the real estate prices still lower than most prominent parts of NCR Ghaziabad could be the residence of choice for people working in these areas. The plans for Meerut’s development have been on the fast track since its inclusion in the NCR map. The development of Meerut in the next decade would have an impact on Ghaziabad’s demand.
Development of Social Capital
The prevailing scenario of Ghaziabad, in terms of maintenance of its infrastructure, cleanliness, high crime levels etc. is a major deterrent towards holistic development of the region. There are numerous traffic jams, lack of discipline when it comes to following of traffic rules, mismanagement that leads to long delays. It is pivotal that this social capital in the region can be developed further for Ghaziabad to become a location of choice for many.
Availability of Basic Amenities
The availability of basic amenities such as electricity and water, smooth road traffic, quality schools, colleges, restaurants, hotels etc. is still a concern in Ghaziabad. It would be extremely difficult for the region to compete with other neighboring locations in case access to these amenities is not worked upon. Long power lay offs, questionable water quality, over flowing drainage systems are a reality in Ghaziabad.
Crime rate and Safety Index
Known as one of the most notorious areas amongst the prominent parts of NCR, Ghaziabad will have to work on its law and order situation. There are growing numbers of crimes against women, chain snatching and other petty crimes that need to be controlled. There is also a need to build on the infrastructure with more police stations in the area.
Game Changers Increasing number of work opportunities in the service sector, push on manufacturing and infrastructure development should put Ghaziabad at the right stead for the future. What would be the pace of this development and growth? What will be the demographic and economic scenarios present in the future? A few of the factors that could impact this and should be kept in mind in case you are investing in this area are;
Macro Factors Co-Related to Ghaziabad’s Growth Gold Prices
The ROI Index study shows a high correlation between gold price trends and real estate prices in Ghaziabad. A stagnant growth trend is expected for Gold in the coming quarters
Interest Rates
The ROI Index study for Ghaziabad showed a relatively high positive correlation with interest rates. In case interest rates see a fall to encourage liquidity in the markets in the short term it could have a positive impact on demand levels.
High Inventory Levels
Ghaziabad’s residential real estate is dominated with affordable and midsegment housing with only a handful of luxury projects being introduced in areas like Crossing Republic.
The Outlook Ghaziabad’s real estate has been providing affordable housing solutions for the lower-middle and middle class families for past few decades. The lack of investor interest has kept the prices under check and should continue to do so in the near term. It is going to be pivotal for Ghaziabad to build on its social capital and infrastructure to deliver on the quality of life that its residents and prospects expect. In case you are looking at Ghaziabad you should expect, Stagnant speed of growth in price trends in the short term with delivery of projects scheduled in the mid term which should provide a spurt in transaction levels. End user based demand to stay with limited short term investor interest. Social infrastructure will be the challenge that Ghaziabad needs to overcome. This reality would keep the upper middle class and HNI audience away from the region to a large extent in the short and medium term. Sectors in Kaushambi and Vaishali should remain the drivers of growth in the region with higher demand. Crossing Republic and Raj Nagar Extension should see more interest in the longer term horizon. Growth trends in East Delhi will have a rub-off on the region’s prices. Locations closer to Delhi and Noida should see steeper growth charts in the medium term. Increasing employment opportunities and growth of the service sector should remain a focus area. The development of Meerut’s economy and its involvement in NCR would play a pivotal role. Industrial growth with the new government’s focus on increasing manufacturing capacities may have a positive impact. Improvement in cleanliness levels, existing drainage systems, haphazard traffic & jams, safety levels would be key areas to improve upon for long term prospects of the region. Proper sensitization of the existing population and nurturing discipline would also be important. How much of a long term investor interest can Ghaziabad garner? Will investors start looking at adding more of affordable housing inventory in their portfolios, keeping in mind the ‘Housing for All’ focus of the government? How much of that interest would have a positive rub over on Ghaziabad? All this will get clearer in the coming years, though any substantial movement in Ghaziabad’s real estate will be dependent on the
Live Wire > A slow moving market with a large
thrust on affordable housing and end user demand. > Need for more quality
infrastructural development and planning in the area for building both economic and social capital. > Expectations for a constant
organic demand based trend to prevail in the mid term closely linked to the micro factors. > There should be limited takers
for luxury and ultra luxury projects in the region and supply of such units should also remain limited as compared to other parts of NCR. > The access to the Metro Rail in
the prominent areas of Ghaziabad should remain a strong driver for demand. With more stations planned this should only get stronger. > Lack of quality commercial
areas may keep the region’s growth under check and should be a focus for the administration in the longer term.
Qualify of Life that the administration here can offer. Good water levels, locational advantage should provide adequate resources to build on the future infrastructure. Higher returns can be expected in the Longer Term.
*Any epicenter in context of this report is a location/ micro region with a definitive boundary where all amenities of livelihood are available such as a micro township.
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About Home Makers Home Makers is the real-estate research and services arm of NNA Consultancy Services and aims at helping both endusers and investors make informed decisions pertaining to their housing/ investment requirements. Unlike the current options in the market Home Makers focuses on conducting customized research for its client keeping in line with their needs and the macro real estate environment. Adding to that Home Makers offers the option of research solutions that can be availed for large projects, investment decisions or development strategies. Home Makers â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Regional Reportsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; are an amalgamation of standard real estate and township planning data collated from in-house research and varied sources clubbed with an insight on the social capital of the region. The reports do not only provide you an insight into historic, current and future numeric trends but also a feedback from the residents of the region on the quality of life, availability of amenities and other important aspects impacting life in the region.
The Research Brief At Home Makers we believe that it is imperative to have a holistic approach to research of any kind and that scientific data mining tools should be used to collect and collate data. With this in mind Home Makers has carefully carved its approach for research in the real estate sector which effectively amalgamates both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the industry and its assets.
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Quality Check Mechanism Undertaking such a large study can be a challenge for any organization and error percentages could also be high in case the study is not undertaken in the right manner. In order to minimize on the possibilities of errors throughout the study cycle, check mechanisms have been placed at various steps.
Validating data from authorized governmental & non-governmental sources. A three level check system for all data before it is published. On-ground surveys of a region to understand the gap between planned and real development. Sample checks on price trends and inventory levels from regional brokers and consultants. Sample check on questionnaires filled by residents by making direct calls. Use of standard models and correlation studies to evaluate financial data. The above steps are some of the many checks that have been placed for the accuracy of the information being provided.
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The Process Flow
1
Decoding Administrative Plans
Here the team adequately studies the city/ state master plans in detail and decodes the relevant information such as historic population trends, projected capacity building, planned infrastructure such as roads, markets, petrol pumps, schools, colleges, commercial spaces, hospitals etc. and any other major planned development.
2
Phase wise studyof the region
3
Conducting a specific online/ on-ground research on the region
In order to understand the quality of infrastructure/ amenities available in the region the team systematically divides the region into sub parts for implementing a phased study of the whole region. Essentially this would mean that in a region has 100 sectors, ten critical sectors might be studied in the first phase of the study, another ten in the second phase and so on. This would essentially mean that post reaching the third or fourth phase of Home Makerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s study of a given region there may be a few developments that change the overall view of the region as our exposure to the region increases.
Here the team goes on ground to interact with the residents of the region (specific pockets) and understand their views on the region, its quality of life, infrastructure, connectivity, easy availability of amenities, work opportunities, safety etc. It is through this study that one is able to understand the actual delivery of the plan that had been proposed by the administration. A single phase for a region being researched on would have a sample size of 300 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 500 responents.
4
Studying the Planned Projects / Dwelling Units in the region A thorough check from both online and on-ground sources is conducted to monitor the new/upcoming residential and infrastructure projects in the region etc.
5
Using Home Makers models
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Collation & Representation
The team is undertaking pilots and developing standard quantitative & qualitative, SMART models, for estimating price projections, social development and safety wellness trends. Each region is plotted on these indexes so that a comparative ranking process can be implemented. This enables Home Makers to have an apple to apple comparison between two regions or zones of a territory.
Finally all the above study is collated and presented in front of the audience in an easy to understand and user friendly manner for them to make their own inferences of a given region. The use of info-graphics, visuals and quantifiable data are some of the key ingredients of a Home Makers report that helps you take with you a clear picture of a region.
Glossary Parameters
Sources
Average Distances between two locations
Google Maps
Historical Price Trends
www.magicbricks.com, www.99acres.com have been referred for both new bookings and resale cases.
Current Price Trends
www.magicbricks.com, www.allcheckdeals.com have been referred for new booking rates and sample checked for prevailing prices on ground.
Existing and Estimated Population Trends
Census of India 2011, Delhi NCR MPD 2021, Ghaziabad Master plan 2021
No. of Metro Stations, Sub Stations
Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) data, on ground visits and google maps.
No. of Metro Stations planned after Phase 3 DMRC phase 3 Hospitals
On ground visits and google maps.
Fire Stations
Ghaziabad Master Paln-2021, google maps and on ground visits
Malls
On ground visits, Expedia, Ixigo and google maps
Prominent Marketplace
On ground visits, google maps.
Police Stations
Ghaziabad Police Data, State Government data for police and google maps
Avg Water Table
NCR Planning Board-Water report (Regional Plan 2021)
Crime Rate
Government records for Crime in India 2012
No. of Hotels
On ground visits, Expedia, Cleartrip and google maps data
Cinemas
On ground visits and google maps
Avg Air Pollution
Uttar Pradesh Pollution Control Board-Ambient Air Quality (PM10 levels have been referred to) for the calendar year 2013
Sports Complex
On ground visits and google maps.
Proposed area used for commercial spaces MPD 2021 Zonal Master Plans, Ghaziabad Master plan 2021
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Parameters
Sources
Prominent Flyovers
On ground visits, google maps and report â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Skyscrapers in the city
No. of Schools
Directorate Of Education and Central Board for Secondary Education data.
No. of Colleges
Government Data for affiliations from Uttar Pradesh Technical University and Uttar Pradesh University, on-ground visits and google maps
No. of Creches
Google maps.
Distances & Connectivity
Sample Survey of Home Makers.
Quality of Basic Amenities
Sample Survey of Home Makers.
Sense of safety & wellness
Sample Survey of Home Makers.
The following tools and models have been utilized while preparing the inferences shared in this report Indexes
Coverage
ROI Index
Industrial IIP numbers, VIX, SENSEX trends, State GDP, Inflation, REPO rates, Gold rates etc. have been considered while formulating the index.
Happiness Quotient
Sample Survey of Home Makers, Infrastructure development numbers, proximity and quality of amenities have been considered
Safety & Wellness
Sample survey of Home Makers, government data and weighted average across these parameters has been considered.
Proximity Index
On ground research, google maps for connectivity and weighted average of these parameters have been considered.
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The Report This is a periodic report prepared for the first half of the year 2014 specifically for the region of Ghaziabad (district). Readers should use the information in this report for guidance purposes only and should conduct their own study before taking a decision in regards to this market. NNA Consultancy Services does not take responsibility of the accuracy of the data in the report and that which has been collated from third party sources.
Disclaimers The market data and information contained herein (â&#x20AC;&#x153;Informationâ&#x20AC;?) is the product or service of multiple parties that may or may not be affiliated to NNA Consultancy Services Pvt. Ltd. (NCS). None of the Information represents the opinion of, counsel from, recommendation or endorsement by NCS, or its Affiliates, Officers, Employees or Agents. The properties/projects that are indicated/ mentioned herein above have been selected randomly for the purpose of this report only and that such mention/indication of the same does not, in anyway whatsoever indicate any preference or promotion by NCS of the same. NCS does not intend to suggest or promote any specific area, builder, developer or construction company that may have been mentioned / indicated in this report. You may not use the Information for any unlawful purpose or any purpose not expressly permitted hereby. Reproduction of the Information in any form is prohibited. Users are requested to use the Information at their sole risk. NCS or its Affiliates, Officers, Employees or Agents shall not be liable and expressly disclaim liability for any error or omission in the content of the Information, or for any actions taken by any one directly or indirectly, in reliance thereon. The Information is not guaranteed to be errorfree, or to be relied upon for investment purposes, and NCS or its Affiliates, Officers, Employees or Agents make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, truth, adequacy, timeliness or completeness, fitness for purpose, title, non infringement of third party rights or continued availability of the Information.
No Warranty In no event shall NCS or its Affiliates, officers, employees or agents be liable for loss or damage of any kind whatsoever (including, without limitation, any special, consequential, incidental or indirect damages, or damages for loss of profits, business interruption, and any and all forms of loss or damage) to any one under any circumstances. All queries can be directed towards Divyanshu Nagpal Director, NNA Consultancy Services Pvt. Ltd +91-9818300327 divyanshunagpal@nnaindia.com
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