FEB. 2014 | Vol. 01
NUMBERS BEHIND ZONE H 2014-15
North West Delhi 1 has been in existence since independence and hence has been a part of the multiple Master Plans starting from the year 1962 and consists of both planned and unplanned areas.
Amphitheater, Dilli Haat -Pitampura
North West Delhi 1 will see one of the largest growth in population numbers as compared to other parts of Delhi, with an increase from over 15,00,000 in 2011 to more than 18,50,000 by the year 2021
2014-15
Netaji Subhash Place
CONTENTS About the Region ...........................................................
06
Real Estate Numbers Administrative snapshot .................................................
08
The ROI Index (Changing price trends) ..........................
10
Prominent Launches .......................................................
12
Quality of Life Index The Happiness Quotient .................................................
14
The Safety & Wellness Index ...........................................
16
Major factors to consider ................................................
17
The Proximity Chart ........................................................
18
Game Changers ..............................................................
20
The Outlook ....................................................................
21
Our Research Approach .................................................
22
Glossary ..........................................................................
24
About The Region
Located on the North-West side of Delhi, Zone H also known as North-West Delhi 1, counts for popular industrial zones, commercial centers and both planned and unplanned colonies. Dilly Haat, Netaji Subhash Place, Manglam Place, T.V. Tower are some of the prominent locations in the region. Zone H also boasts of popular residential colonies like Shalimar Bagh, Pitampura, Rohini Phase 1, Ashok Vihar etc. The Connaught Place, CBD zone of Delhi is within close proximity, situated along the Outer Ring Road, situated between the Grand Trunk Road with railway line to Karnal and Rohtak Road. This report would delve on various aspects of Zone H, its past trends, administrative plans for the future, the level of happiness of their residents in its current capacity and future projections.
ROI Index Looking at the historic trends in the region Zone H has traditionally been an end user market with the announcement of new inventory in Rohini and the talks of the Smart Cities the investor audience has lately been interested in this market. The more mature sections of the zone enjoy a high occupancy thereby reducing transaction levels. The newer sectors of Rohini and near by areas have large amounts of inventory available and new being developed. Though affected by the macro economic number and investor sentiments Zone H should be a region to look out for. Property prices here have shown a slow return here contrary to some of the other developed regions of NCR The ROI Index shows that the investment opportunity in medium and long term as hot and warm respectively with a faster growth expectations from the more maturer sections of the region. Read more about the future of Zone H's real estate on page 10.
06
12,26,000 Population
(As per 2001 Census)
Rohini Phase 1, Rohini Phase 2, Pitampura, Shalimar Bagh, Ashok Vihar etc. Major Residential Areas
Dilli Haat, Sheesh Mahal, T.V. Tower, Western Yamuna Canal, MRTS Corridor, Netaji Subhash Place etc.
Important Locations
15.55%
Planned Recreational Spaces
8,254
Population Density (Per Sq. Km.)
(Includes North West Delhi data)
5,677 Land Size (in Hectares)
54.10%
Happiness Quotient Our Happiness Quotient suggests, shows that the residents of the region are moderately happy with the region. With focus being on affordable housing in the area satisfactory levels of basic amenities are present here. The more affluent colonies of the region showed better results in our studies for this matrix. At the same time here was a lack of availability of quality recreational facilities like high end malls, restaurants, cafes etc. This is an area to be worked on. Large number of industrial spaces in the region did provide work opportunities close by for the residents. Read more about the views of the residents of Zone H and what makes them happy staying here on page 14.
Proximity Index Well connected to Central Delhi & West Delhi and the industrial corridors of Bawana, Mundka etc. the region is able to provide for job opportunities for a large section of its residents within its periphery. Quality roads, flyovers, public transport and the availability of the metro boost the proximity index. At the same time quality social infrastructure is still lacking here. Zone H scores moderately over this index with a lot of room for improvement. This index should surely see a spike in the mid term horizon with a lot of development planned for the area. Read more about Zone H’s proximity and its significance in the region’s growth on page 18.
Safety & Wellness Index (SWI) Green open spaces, parks etc. are an integral part of the region. Though with proximity to a number of industrial areas and unauthorized colonies crime rates have been relatively higher here Limited number of quality medical facilities and a relatively high crime rate also effects the region’s score on the SWI. Read more about the Safety & Wellness Index on page 16.
Quick Facts*
1 2 3 4
Zone H was made a part of Delhi Master Plan framework in the year 1962. Rohini 1& 2 and Mangolpuri constitute of 2,400 hectares, which is almost half of the entire zone and proposed to be built as one of the biggest residential zones in the national capital. With large number of urban villages, unorganized colonies and industrial areas there is a need for better planning and infrastructure development in the area. Proximity to Connaught Place with Netaji Subhash Place and Mangalam Place falling within the zone these make up the prominent commercial centers in and around the region.
* Zone H is a part of North West Delhi region, which is approximately 25,000 hectares in size, and is collectively represented in the Census 2011 data.
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The Real Estate Numbers
Statistics
20,316 Total Area (In Hectares)
51.24%
Planned Residential Use of Land
About this section The section ‘Real Estate Numbers’ focuses on the ever critical financial aspects of a region that directly impact the price trends, appreciation levels and its future projections. This report of Home Makers’ has tried to provide decisive data from the city master plans, population census, on-ground and online studies conducted by the team that go a miss many a time. The ‘ROI Index’, a part of this section, is a fast evolving tool being developed by the team that amalgamates multiple aspects impacting price trends and acts as a guide for investors in their decision making process. The ‘New Launches’ section lines up a few of the talked about upcoming developments in the region.
Zone H or popularly known as North West Delhi- 1 falls right between the railway line to Ambala in North East and the other to Rohtak in the South West. The region is in existence since independence and hence has been a part of the multiple Master Plans starting from the year 1962 and consists of both planned and unplanned areas. There are nine (9) sub-zones that the region is divided in for development purposes as per the 2021 MPD. In addition to Dilli Haat, T.V. Tower, Netaji Subhash Place complex the region also has Shalimar Marg- A historical garden with the Sheesh Mahal in the center, district courts in Rohini and the MRTS Corridor. As mentioned earlier the major residential colonies include Pitampura, Wazirpur, Rohini and Shalimar Bagh. With a large presence of industrial units in industrial areas the zone has both planned and unplanned industrial areas. The unplanned industrial areas include Shalimar Village, Haider pur and Rithala village. The industrial belt is proposed to provide employment opportunities to over 7,00,000 people by the year 2021. Rohini a prominent part of this zone falls in the sub-zone of H-7,8 & 9 where residential area is being planned for a population of 8,50,000 people by the year 2021. Rohini is going to be planned as the modern sub-city and will be
08
4.49%
Planned Commercial Use of Land
5.72%
Planned Industrial Use of Land
09
Metro Stations
(Including Planned in Phase 3)
Average Price Trends of Zone H Appartments (In Sq. Ft.) Min. 6,563
Avg. 12,195
Max. 18,058
* Zone H is a part of North West Delhi region in the Census 2011 and the population of the complete North West Delhi region was 36, 56, 539 in 2011
Amenities
4.1- 9.2Mtrs.
Average Depth at which water is available (Over Exposed)
183
Prominent Schools
06
Prominent Colleges
01
Prominent Hotels
615
Microgram/m3
Air Pollution (PM10 levels)
Moderate: 65-100
Population Graph
12,26,000 in 2001* 15,66,000 in 2011 18,65,000 estimated in 2021
*18,65,000 Holding Capacity in 2001
adequately built with fast transport systems, employment area for about 3,00,000 workers by the year 2021. Currently the Rohini area provides residential facilities to a population of approximately 60,000 people across 1413 hectares of land. Rohini also has 108 hectares of land earmarked for commercial use. Plotted residential colonies such as Pitampura, Ashok Vihar, Kotak Enclave, Sainik VIhar etc. also form a part of the zone. Large Corporate Group- Housing societies can be found in Rohini and Pitampura. The region is also connected by the metro with the presence of 9 metro stations. (including phase 3 plans). This number is set to increase in the near future with the talks of the 4th phase. A large part of the land planned for industrial use the region is bound to see a lot more development. Rohini, both phase 1 & 2 are projected to be developed as one of the largest residential communities in the country. Zone H has an average ground water level of 4.1 – 9.2 meters, which is better off than many regions of NCR. With the heavy pace of industrialization this water table has taken a toll in the last few years. The region has seen an average decline in ground water levels of 0.1 to 0.2 meters annually. With large concentration of industrial units, large urban population there is always a pressure on the water tables in the zone. The air pollution levels here are also a concern. Even though zone H has been a part of Delhi’s map for some time there is only a limited amount of quality social infrastructure prevalent here. A large number of unplanned / unauthorized colonies have added to this issue increasing the scope of redevelopment in the area. Keeping this reality in mind Zone H has been identified as a priority zone to house a large number of Delhi’s new population in the coming years. Rohini would see a large amount of development in the affordable housing segment with some of DDA’s new allotments already declared. In order to provide adequate social capital to support this rise in population increase in the number of quality educational and medical facilities in the zone should also remain a priority. With a large cover of industrial facilities in the region there is a heavy presence of the lower-middle and middle class families who work in the nearby units. With modest income groups there are only a limited number of quality recreational facilities in the region as compared to the more developed parts of South Delhi or Gurgaon. Pitampura and Shalimar Bagh, in zone H accommodate the wealthier sections of the region and hence have the presence of shopping arcades, malls and other recreational facilities. With the zone having both development plans and political importance it would be interesting to see the shape these locations take in the coming years.
09
ROI Index
The ROI Index Signifies the estimated trends of real estate prices.
Housing the middle and the upper middle segments of the city barring select regions of Pitampura, Rohini and Shalimar Bagh the real estate prices of Zone H have been below the more developed sections of Delhi NCR such as South Delhi, Central Delhi or a Gurgaon. The prices here have shown a modest return in the previous few years with a spurt in the year 2011, in line with other neighboring zones. In fact Zone H has shown a lot of similarities in its nature and price trends to Zone G (West Delhi 1) where prices have been a few percentages higher than this zone. With the redevelopment plans in place for the region, a substantial amount of activity planned for Rohini and talks about revamp of unauthorized colonies into authorized should have a lot of eyes on the lesser developed areas of Zone H. The lack of quality recreational facilities, quality commercial centers providing good work opportunities and questionable security levels in some of the areas would continue to challenge growth in the near term for the region. A recovering economy and low sentiments in the real estate market will add to the troubles here. These facts put together coupled with past trends of the zone should keep growth under control.
Luke Warm
In Short Term
In Mid Term
(< 3 Years)
(3-7 Years)
Warm
In Long Term ( > 7 Years)
High Return Period Signifies the percentage of real estate which has shown better returns
33%
17%
In Short Term
In Mid Term
(<3 Years)
(3-7 Years)
50*%
In Long Term (>7 Years)
*The figure has been taken as a projection keeping in mind the trend graph of a 7 year period
Economical for End User
The Delhi NCR market has seen a sharp correction since 2013 with fall in prices to the tune of 20% to 30% and even more in some areas. With economic uncertainties in the pre-election period and a recovering industry the real estate market for the national capital may see further corrections in the near term which should further increase the recovery period for this zone. Keeping in mind the micro realities of the region, the relatively affordable prices, good connectivity, robust development plans and focus on affordable housing a stable return should be expected from this zone with a spurt in the mid term. At the same time it will be important for the region to develop its social capital which is lagging behind. Improving the number and quality of educational facilities, healthcare infrastructure and security levels will be important. As the landscape of Delhi NCR is changing with the territory fast expanding and epicenters shifting from one place of importance to the other it would be pivotal to see how the newer regions of NCR develop in the coming years. What would be the shape
HOT
Signifies the percentage of real estate which would have been more economical on rent or as a purchase
67% vs 33%
Rent
Purchase
Major Sectors With Their Price Trends 2014
18,058
12,195
16,217
15,277
14,146
13,362
13,061
12,664
2009
8,091 7,246
(Area)
Rohini Sec 9
2013 2012 2011 2010
(Price per Sq. Feet)
12,447
-
13,091
9,771
12,438
11,355
10,609
11,480
8,444 6,867
6,240
12,727 -
Rohini Sec 13
Pitampura
Shalimar Bagh
*The figure has been taken as a projection keeping in mind the trend graph of a 7 year period.
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Price VS Growth (Price per Sq. Ft.)
2014
INR 12,195
-12%
2013
INR 13,834
7%
2012
INR 12,900
7%
2011
INR 12,072
46%
2010
INR 8,267.50
20%
2009
INR 6,867
Insights New developments in the near term with DDA announcing its new projects in the Rohini region. Expectations of a fall in gold prices and corrections in interest rates in the near term would keep demand levels balanced. With Rohini and adjoining areas proposed to be a part of the smart city in Delhi should increase interests in the market in the near term and should give returns in the mid term. Leasing has remained a more reasonable option over the past decade and this trend should continue atleast over the next few years. With new highways / speedways proposed by the administration and the metro connectivity planned to be enhanced the same should have a positive impact on select locations in the short and medium term.
that Gurgaon would take? How will Noidaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s real estate pan out? Will Ghaziabad and Faridabad see more attraction? Will remain important questions to answer and define the fate of Zone H and many other zones of Delhi. The historic price trends of Zone H have shown a strong positive correlation with gold and the interest rate trends. This can be anticipated keeping in mind the traditional importance of gold for investment purposes and the lending behavioral trends for the affordable housing market. The ROI Index takes in to account numerous factors including past price trends, demand & supply factors, projected industry stats, consumer sentiments in the short term, planned infrastructural development and macro parameters that would shape the future of the region. Sources: www.magicbricks.com, www.99acres.com have been referred for both new bookings and resale cases.
The â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;ROI Indexâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; graph for Zone H shows limited scope for high appreciation levels in the short term due to the recent drop in the real estate prices in the last couple of years, the delivery of pending infrastructural initiatives and questionable social capital of the region. The market would take a natural course of recovery as the market sentiments and economic numbers improve over the course of time. The historically high price trends in the more mature sections of Rohini with Pitampura in a close second. A sporadic growth trend can be expected in the mid term as the economy comes out from its current challenges. The shape that the region takes with the new development plans, talks of smart cities and focus on affordable housing with addition of a large amount of inventory will be crucial to look out for. The newer sections of this zone that are more reasonably priced at this point of time should see the maximum appreciation levels in the longer term. There is a large inventory of units in unauthorized colonies which in case authorized by the new government should see a spurt in prices in the short term. Like many developed zones of Delhi NCR there is a huge disparity between real estate asset prices and the rental levels. From an end user point of view leasing has remained a cheaper option. This has also lead to a big rental demand for real estate here.
Key Factors to Consider The nature of property being purchased and whether it is in the mid segment or luxury segment. Plots have shown better returns in Zone H with builder floors garnering higher transaction levels. A large number of unauthorized colonies increase price level disparity in the zone and with re-development plans could see sporadic price shifts in the short term. Traditionally the highest return on investment has been achieved in North West Delhi 1 in the long term with a spurt in 2011-12. Though due to economic and political uncertainties 2013 and 2014 have seen a drastic drop in the region. Connectivity and quality of infrastructure should be given priority while selecting a location in the zone.
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Prominent Launches With Zone H being a fast developing region of Delhi NCR there are many new offerings and existing projects that can be looked into. The locations of Shalimar Bagh and Pitampura have low amount of new inventory left. Some of the areas where these developments are taking place are provided. The above table highlights some of the relatively new / upcoming localities and projects in North West Delhi 1. The above list is not an exhaustive list by itself and does not mention the projects in any order of preference. Home Makers does not, at any level, promote or holds preference for any of the above mentioned projects and this list of projects has been added for information only. In order to cover the vast territory of West Delhi and its developments we have included some of the upcoming localities and initiatives of Delhi Development Authority (DDA) and mid segment housing units in the region. The premium segment units of the old and well established colonies have not been added to the above list due to low transaction levels.
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While evaluating any project we would urge you to study the following aspects closely The current status and planned administrative development of the location including its connectivity, amenities, social infrastructure etc. The nature of the project being evaluated and whether all the aspects of a township are being culminated in that region / pocket. Developer background and delivery of past projects both from the angle of time taken and quality of construction. The construction agency and other stakeholders involved with the project. The legal status of the land on which the project is being developed and whether or not the same is clear.
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Rohini Sec - 9
Rohini Sec - 28
Shalimar Bagh
Pitampura
Cosmic Saraswati Enclave
Developer: Cosmic Group Estimated Completion: Complete
Sanskriti Apartments Developer: Private Developers Estimated Completion: 2016
Sheesh Mahal, DA Block Developer: Private Developers Estimated Completion: Complete
Mayura Enclave
Developer: Private Developers Estimated Completion: Complete
Rohini Sec - 13
Rohini Sec - 9
Pitampura
Neelkanth Apartments Developer: Private Developers Estimated Completion: Complete
Kadambari Apartments Developer: Private Developers Estimated Completion: Complete
Tower Height Apartment Developer: Private Developers Estimated Completion: Complete
Rohini Group B
Sources: www.99acres.com
Odeon Multi Storied Houses Developer: Odeon Builders
Estimated Completion: Complete
Quality Of Life About the Section ‘Quality of Life’ index evaluates the equally important social aspects of a region. These aspects go beyond the traditional demand & supply numbers; price trends etc. to actually give you an insight on the quality of life in the geography being referred to. It is important to keep in mind that it is this quality that attracts a person to make the critical decision of whether to settle in one location or the other. There are many regions that have seen the initial rise in real estate and have been much talked about but never really developed as a choice to consider for the enduser. We at Home Makers’ believe that it is extremely important to keep an eye on this index for evaluating the development of the region in the medium and long term.
Happiness Quotient (Higher percentages are considered better)
Zone H has a mix of both traditionally strong affluent localities and a spree of affordable housing projects. ‘Home Makers’ started with the task to understand the ‘Happiness Levels’ of people in Zone H, what the issues prevalent are and what makes Zone H the location of choice for many. Apart from select localities in the older sectors of Rohini, Pitampura etc. the zone has a strong focus on affordable housing and amenities have been planned accordingly. The zone has faired above average on the Happiness Quotient, with an above average score on amenities available and a moderate scoring across other parameters such as safety, proximity to work and recreational facilities. Our on-ground studies showed a concern over availability of parking with less than adequate arrangements made for the same both within residential societies and public places. Security and cleanliness issues were the other negatives that came out from these studies even though the number of FIRs registered in the area was relatively lesser. A number of petty crimes and hurdles have been noticed here. A handful of unorganized colonies and urban villages also came out as a possible reason that could add to the safety issues. With the industrial areas and some commercial centers the region saw a large part of its working population having their work places close by. A number of malls and market places help in meeting the daily needs of the population though limited recreational facilities are available in the region. The ones that are present also lack quality as compared to other prominent zones of Delhi NCR. Zone H has been developed with many parks and other green spaces forming a calm environment around. It will be important to see the holistic development of Zone H’s infrastructure in the coming years keeping in mind the new population that the zone is estimated to hold by 2020, as per the master plans.
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Scores
Highlights
60.90%
Amenities Available
58.98%
Feeling of Security
54.08%
Proximity to Work
Availability of basic amenities with market areas in close proximity add to the Happiness Quotient. Adequate facilities to meet the lower mid and mid income group needs. A large part of the zoneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s working population has their work places in close proximity.
52.78%
Availability of Recreation Facilities
Disclaimer: In order to increase the accuracy of the above numbers the Happiness Quotient index has been appropriately molded and hence may have variations compared to the earlier reports.
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54.10%
Safety & Wellness Index
Scores The below data is indicative and represents a comparison with other regions of Delhi NCR.
(Higher percentages are considered better)
With green open spaces, some prominent multi-specialty hospitals the SWI show an above average score on the index. Some of the well known medical facilities of the region include Sunrise Hospital, Bhagwati Hospital, World Brain Center, New Rohini Hospital, Altius Hemraj Jain Hospital etc. giving the region an adequate spread of medical facilities to cater to its current population. At the same time this may not remain the case with the anticipated growth in population in the coming years. Hence there is a need for more medical infrastructure to be developed in the coming years. Zone Hâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s scores in regards to number of FIRs registered in the region may not be as dismal as the feedback received from its residents. Safety, the lack of it, was a prominent fixture in the feedback received from the people here. Petty crimes, crime against women were common in the area and with the industrial zones and urban villages falling in the region these numbers have been further affected. With large number of police stations as compared to area that is covered within the zone there is a higher degree of crimes being registered. Zone H would need to build on its social infrastructure to meet the needs of its future population. Out of the localities covered in the survey Rohini sector 3 and 15 showed higher safety concerns as compared to some of the other developed areas. With a number of parks and green areas the environment in the zone has been relatively calm in nature. Though with close proximity to industrial areas some sections of the region have had there share of problems in terms of quality of air. Pitampura and Shalimar Bagh though have received a thumbs up from its residents in this regard. It is pivotal that the administration works on building both the social capital and infrastructure in the region to put it in the right stead to cater to the planned population. With Rohini all set to become a part of Delhiâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s very own Smart City all the eyes would be on the region on how it delivers on this index for its population.
16
32.44% Air Pollution
45.58%
Crimes Under IPC
90.00%
Connectivity to Police Stations
43.59% Connectivity to Hospitals Only Multi-Speciality
Highlights Crime levels have been relatively high as compared to other zones like A, B, C and even neighboring pockets like Zone G or Dwarka region. There is a need to develop on the social infrastructure to cater to the growing population and plans for the Smart City.
Interesting Facts The statement show the top responses and the respective percentages
Zone H scores well in terms of market connectivity with many budget malls and shopping areas. Green open spaces also add to the environment Connectivity malls & market places
51.79%
Connectivity & Transportation Points
14.29%
Greenery & Open Spaces
33.93%
Self employed people trumped over the employed respondents in the region. Service
42.67%
Business
57.33%
Zone H had a large section of its respondents having their work places in close proximity with commercial, retail and industrial centers in and around the region. 19% of the respondents travelled more than 15 kilometers. Under 3 kms
41.49%
3 - 8 kms
24.48%
8 - 15 kms
14.94%
More than 15 kms
19.09%
Social Factors to Consider A quick survey undertaken by the Home Makersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; team in the region showed some eye opening facts about the region and should surely be considered while making a decision. The results are part of a sample survey conducted in Zone H in the regions of Pirampura, Shalimar Bagh, Rohini Sector 3, 7, 8, 13 & 15. The survey equally covered residents of all ages, men & women, working professionals and non-working population, employed people and businessmen. A sample size of over 400 respondents has been put together for this study. The above trends may not cover the entire population of this region but do give an indication to the current scenarios prevailing here.
Safety and lack of parking spaces came out as major issues to be worked on. Safety
38.35%
Lack of Parking Spaces / Traffic Jams
39.10%
Cleanliness, Drainage / Sewage Systems
22.56%
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Proximity Index The chart highlights Zone Hâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s proximity score to various prominent locations, landmarks, connectivity zones of Delhi NCR and nearest amenities within the region. It is important to keep in mind that a critical aspect for development of any region is its location and proximity to all important parts of the city and amenities.
Connectivity The table shows representative figures and not the actual proximity to a location. The higher the amenity or location / zone on the above scale the closer it is estimated to be in the region.
39.8%
90%
Closest
70%
50%
30%
10%
Farthest
Critical Transportation Points
48.35%
Proximity Index
54.09% Distance from work place
63.6%
90%
Closest
70%
50%
30%
10%
Farthest
Prominent Junctions
72.33% Market Connectivity
45.0%
90%
Closest
70%
50%
30%
Amenities & Public Conveniences 18
10%
Farthest
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Reference Grid
Delhi Zone Map
Refers to Delhi NCT map
ZONE H
Refers to Critical Transportation Points in the zone Refers to Prominent Junctions in the zone Highlights the area covered under Zone H on the map 0 - 100
Refers to proximity level in the zone, with 0 standing for least proximity and 100 for maximum proximity.
Rithala Metro Station M2K Rohini Outer Ring Road
80
90
Netaji Subhash Place
100
70
Ring Road
60
50
ISBT
Kashmiri Gate
40
New Delhi Railway Station
30 20
10
NH 8 Airport
Kundli Manesar Palwal Expressway
01 Hotels
06 11
Malls Multi-Specialty Hospitals
21
Police Stations
19
Game Changers How will Zone Hâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future pan out? Would the talks of it being a part of the first proposed smart city have any short term impact on the real estate prices? Will it be able to out shine the Delhi real estate sector in the near term or will it also go into a phase of limited demand? Looking at the recent developments and the overall decline of the real estate sector in India and especially in Delhi NCR, Zone H too has taken a hit in terms of real estate prices. Macro economic factors have been clubbed together with slow pace of infrastructure development and political uncertainties have kept a check on the growth of the region in the last couple of years. It is hard to say whether the real estate markets here have bottomed out as there could be further fall in prices especially in the newer sectors of Rohini which have seen a slow pace of infrastructure growth. Some factors that could impact the market and should be kept in mind in case you are investing in this area are;
Macro Factors With a High Co-relation to Zone Hâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Growth Gold Prices
The ROI Index study for Zone H showed a high positive correlation with the gold prices. Traditionally within the financially strong population of the zone investment in one asset has lead to a flow of investments into the other asset.
Interest Rates
Zone Hâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s price trends have shown a high correlation with the changing interest rates with affordable housing and borrowings being a common trend.
High Inventory Levels
With a number of initiatives and new lifelines planned for the zone the new inventory to be released in the zone should keep average property prices in check.
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Key Factors Development of Newer Pockets of Zone H
Rohini is planned to see a large part of the new development in the region. Many new sectors such as 27, 28, 30 & 31 are already a reality and should see increasing importance in the mid term.
Connectivity of the Metro Rail
The zone currently has 9 metro stations including two in Rohini, one each in Rithala, Pitampura, Subhash Place etc. with further extension of the metro in other parts of the zone this would have an impact on price trends.
DDA to deliver high number of units in Rohini
With a few thousand units proposed to be allotted in the recently launched scheme there are also many plots in the newer sections of Rohini that have recently been given or are being handed over by the DDA. The new burst in supply in the region is going to hamper its numbers in the short term.
Limiting the role of Industrial Centers
Many of the well known industrial centers of Zone H have seen a drastic change in the land use with industrial plots getting converted to retail, commercial centers and also residential options. This has had and will continue to have an impact on the nature of work opportunities that the region would offer.
The Fast Growing Suburbs
Growth of Zone H is equally dependent on the speed and quality at which the residential development of Gurgaon and Noida takes place. With ample land available in these districts and modern constructions being offered at lesser prices. Fast development of social infrastructure in Gurgaon and Noida would challenge the demand trends of Zone H.
Development of Social Capital
The social infrastructure of Zone H continues to be in question. With a large amount of population present here and the number only to increase in the coming years it would be important to work on this parameter. With Rohini included in the Smart City plans this index should also see a positive impact.
The Outlook In line with other areas Zone H’s real estate sector has seen a drop in its prices, across most localities, in the last two years the current market sentiment has not changed much. With both old and developed colonies and upcoming societies the zone is going to have a mixed trend in the short and medium term. The zone’s outlook is closely dependent on the delivery of infrastructure projects- roadways, connectivity of the metro rail, availability of basic amenities in the new areas being developed and the promise of the Smart City. It is important that the above mentioned ‘Game Changers’ are closely watched to project the demand of Zone H. Localities that have been in prominence for many decades such as Pitampura and older sectors of Rohini should gain the most from the proposed development. With the real estate landscape of Delhi NCR fast changing with the plans for a Smart City encompassing Rohini, Dwarka and Narela areas would be a key catalyst, development of the neighboring sub-cities in the NCR region will also hold an important role in determining demand shifts. The proposition of a Smart City encompassing the Rohini region would certainly have a long term impact not only on the Rohini region but also on the prominent localities on the borders. In the short term with a recovering economy and a questionable demand cycle renting would remain a more economical proposition for the end users. Improving the quality of social infrastructure use of existing amenities and commercial centers and development of the same in the new sectors would remain the key in the mid term. The zone already has good connectivity with the metro rail, proposed roadways and proximity to the CBDConnaught Place. The locations which will get metro connectivity in the near term should see a spurt in price levels in the short and mid term horizon.
Live Wire > A sluggish market in the short term with limited demand and transaction levels. Price levels may further see corrections in the ultra-short term and slow speed of growth. > Infrastructural developments and social capital development will remain a key and lack of delivery would hurt the region in the short term. > Expectation of normalization of growth in the longer mid term with a close eye on the economic scenarios of the country and delivery of infrastructural projects in the region. The progress made on the (micro-city) Smart City program for Delhi should show high positive correlation in the long term with Rohini proposed to be a part of this Smart City. > The prominent up-market localities of Zone H should see faster appreciation levels in the mid term with the delivery of the planned infrastructure development to further enhance quality of life in these areas.
With the government’s focus on affordable housing and housing for all by 2022 it would be difficult for many low and mid income group sections of the region to see big spurts in price trends in the mid and medium-long term. Zone H’s real estate should show a sluggish growth pattern in the short term continuing towards a large part of mid term with long term numbers largely dependent on infrastructural and social capital to be developed in the area. The developed sectors should see a stronger trend line in the mid term.
*Any epicenter in context of this report is a location/ micro region with a definitive boundary where all amenities of livelihood are available such as a micro township.
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About Home Makers Home Makers is the real-estate research and services arm of NNA Consultancy Services and aims at helping both endusers and investors make informed decisions pertaining to their housing / investment requirements. Unlike the current options in the market Home Makers focuses on conducting customized research for its client keeping in line with their needs and the macro real estate environment. Adding to that Home Makers offers the option of research solutions that can be availed for large projects, investment decisions or development strategies. Home Makers ‘Regional Reports’ are an amalgamation of standard real estate and township planning data collated from in-house research and varied sources clubbed with an insight on the social capital of the region. The reports do not only provide you an insight into historic, current and future numeric trends but also a feedback from the residents of the region on the quality of life, availability of amenities and other important aspects impacting life in the region.
The Research Brief At Home Makers we believe that it is imperative to have a holistic approach to research of any kind and that scientific data mining tools should be used to collect and collate data. With this in mind Home Makers has carefully carved its approach for research in the real estate sector which effectively amalgamates both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the industry and its assets.
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The Process Flow
1
Decoding Administrative Plans
2
Phase wise study of the region
3
Conducting a specific online/ on-ground research on the region
Here the team adequately studies the city/ state master plans in detail and decodes the relevant information such as historic population trends, projected capacity building, planned infrastructure such as roads, markets, petrol pumps, schools, colleges, commercial spaces, hospitals etc. and any other major planned development.
In order to understand the quality of infrastructure / amenities available in the region the team systematically divides the region into sub parts for implementing a phased study of the whole region. Essentially this would mean that in a region has 100 sectors, ten critical sectors might be studied in the first phase of the study, another ten in the second phase and so on. This would essentially mean that post reaching the third or fourth phase of Home Maker’s study of a given region there may be a few developments that change the overall view of the region as our exposure to the region increases.
Here the team goes on ground to interact with the residents of the region (specific pockets) and understand their views on the region, its quality of life, infrastructure, connectivity, easy availability of amenities, work opportunities, safety etc. It is through this study that one is able to understand the actual delivery of the plan that had been proposed by the administration. A single phase for a region being researched on would have a sample size of 300 – 500 respondents.
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Quality Check Mechanism
4
Studying the Planned Projects / Dwelling Units in the region
5
Using Home Makers models
6
A thorough check from both online and onground sources is conducted to monitor the new/upcoming residential and infrastructure projects in the region etc.
The team is undertaking pilots and developing standard quantitative & qualitative, SMART models, for estimating price projections, social development and safety wellness trends. Each region is plotted on these indexes so that a comparative ranking process can be implemented. This enables Home Makers to have an apple to apple comparison between two regions or zones of a territory.
Collation & Representation Finally all the above study is collated and presented in front of the audience in an easy to understand and user friendly manner for them to make their own inferences of a given region. The use of infographics, visuals and quantifiable data are some of the key ingredients of a Home Makers report that helps you take with you a clear picture of a region.
Undertaking such a large study can be a challenge for any organization and error percentages could also be high in case the study is not undertaken in the right manner. In order to minimize on the possibilities of errors throughout the study cycle, check mechanisms have been placed at various steps.
Validating data from authorized governmental and nongovernmental sources. A three level check system for all data before it is published. On-ground surveys of a region to understand the gap between planned and real development. Sample checks on price trends and inventory levels from regional brokers and consultants. Sample check on questionnaires filled by residents by making direct calls. Use of standard models and correlation studies to evaluate financial data. The above steps are some of the many checks that have been placed for the accuracy of the information being provided.
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Glossary Parameters
Sources
Average Distances between two locations
Google Maps
Historical Price Trends
www.magicbricks.com, www.99acres.com have been referred for both new bookings and resale cases.
Current Price Trends
www.magicbricks.com, www.allcheckdeals.com have been referred for new booking rates and sample checked for prevailing prices on ground.
Existing and Estimated Population Trends
Census of India 2011, Delhi NCR MPD 2021
No. of Metro Stations, Sub Stations
Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) data, on ground visits and google maps.
No. of Metro Stations planned after Phase 3 DMRC phase 3. Hospitals
On ground visits and google maps.
Fire Stations
Google maps and on ground visits.
Malls
On ground visits, Expedia; Ixigo and google maps.
Prominent Marketplace
On ground visits, google maps.
Police Stations
Delhi Police Data, State Government data for police and google maps
Avg Water Table
NCR Planning Board-Water report (Regional Plan 2021).
Crime Rate
Government records for Crime in India 2012.
No. of Hotels
On ground visits, Expedia, Cleartrip and google maps data.
Cinemas
On ground visits and google maps.
Avg Air Pollution
Air Pollution in India (aqicn.org/map/india/delhi) - Ambient Air Quality (PM2.5 levels have been referred to)
Sports Complex
On ground visits and google maps.
Proposed area used for commercial spaces MPD 2021 Zonal Master Plans, 2021 Master plan and NCR Master Plans.
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Parameters
Sources
Prominent Flyovers
On ground visits, google maps and report â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Skyscrapers in the city.
No. of Schools
Directorate Of Education and Central Board for Secondary Education data.
No. of Colleges
Government Data, on-ground visits and google maps.
Distances & Connectivity
Sample Survey of Home Makers.
Quality of Basic Amenities
Sample Survey of Home Makers.
Sense of safety & wellness
Sample Survey of Home Makers.
The following tools and models have been utilized while preparing the inferences shared in this report Indexes
Coverage
ROI Index
Industrial IIP numbers, VIX, SENSEX trends, State GDP, Inflation, REPO rates, Gold rates etc. have been considered while formulating the index.
Happiness Quotient
Sample Survey of Home Makers, Infrastructure development numbers, proximity and quality of amenities have been considered
Safety & Wellness
Sample survey of Home Makers, government data and weighted average across these parameters have been considered.
Proximity Index
On ground research, google maps for connectivity and weighted average of these parameters have been considered.
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The Report This is a periodic report prepared for the first half of the year 2014 specifically for the region of Zone H. Readers should use the information in this report for guidance purposes only and should conduct their own study before taking a decision in regards to this market. NNA Consultancy Services does not take responsibility of the accuracy of the data in the report and that which has been collated from third party sources.
Disclaimers The market data and information contained herein (â&#x20AC;&#x153;Informationâ&#x20AC;?) is the product or service of multiple parties that may or may not be affiliated to NNA Consultancy Services Pvt. Ltd. (NCS). None of the Information represents the opinion of, counsel from, recommendation or endorsement by NCS, or its Affiliates, Officers, Employees or Agents. The properties/projects that are indicated/ mentioned herein above have been selected randomly for the purpose of this report only and that such mention/indication of the same does not, in anyway whatsoever indicate any preference or promotion by NCS of the same. NCS does not intend to suggest or promote any specific area, builder, developer or construction company that may have been mentioned / indicated in this report. You may not use the Information for any unlawful purpose or any purpose not expressly permitted hereby. Reproduction of the Information in any form is prohibited. Users are requested to use the Information at their sole risk. NCS or its Affiliates, Officers, Employees or Agents shall not be liable and expressly disclaim liability for any error or omission in the content of the Information, or for any actions taken by any one directly or indirectly, in reliance thereon. The Information is not guaranteed to be errorfree, or to be relied upon for investment purposes, and NCS or its Affiliates, Officers, Employees or Agents make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, truth, adequacy, timeliness or completeness, fitness for purpose, title, non infringement of third party rights or continued availability of the Information.
No Warranty In no event shall NCS or its Affiliates, officers, employees or agents be liable for loss or damage of any kind whatsoever (including, without limitation, any special, consequential, incidental or indirect damages, or damages for loss of profits, business interruption, and any and all forms of loss or damage) to any one under any circumstances. All queries can be directed towards Divyanshu Nagpal Director, NNA Consultancy Services Pvt. Ltd +91 - 9818300327 divyanshunagpal@nnaindia.com
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