NOV. 2014 | Vol. 01
NUMBERS BEHIND NOIDA 2014-15
Noida was initially marked as a region with 50 villages and 3,360 hectares of land. Today the district includes 81 revenue villages and 20,316 hectares of land.
In addition to employment opportunities generated through industrial activities, IT and ITES sectors play a key role in employment generation in the region; it is hence that 427.25 hectares of land has been allotted for these services.
2014-15
ATS Greens Village, Noida Sec 93
CONTENTS About the Region ...........................................................
06
Real Estate Numbers Administrative snapshot .................................................
08
The ROI Index (Changing price trends) ..........................
10
Prominent Launches .......................................................
12
Quality of Life Index The Happiness Quotient .................................................
14
The Safety & Wellness Index ...........................................
16
Major factors to consider ................................................
17
The Proximity Chart ........................................................
18
Game Changers ..............................................................
20
The Outlook ....................................................................
21
Our Research Approach .................................................
22
Glossary ..........................................................................
24
About The Region
Short for the ‘New Okhla Industrial Development Authourity’, Noida came in to administrative existence in the year 1976. It is a part of the Gautam Budh Nagar District that Greater Noida too is a part of. Sector 18, known for the Atta Market, is the largest commercial center spanning across 35 hectares of land. The region also includes SEZs, Industrial areas and an Export Promotion Zone (EPZ). Located between the Yamuna & the Hindon rivers, Noida has Delhi on the north, north-west and Ghaziabad & Delhi on the north-east. This report would delve on various aspects of Noida, touch upon Greater Noida, their past trends, administrative plans for the future, the level of happiness of their residents in its current capacity and future projections.
ROI Index Looking at the investor’s outlook for the region Noida has not provided the high returns that they may have received from South Delhi or a Gurgaon in the 19th and the 20th century respectively. With abundance of land, open spaces, green areas, better planning and infrastructure development it may be safe to say that Noida can be developed as one of the finest regions of NCR and should deliver high returns in the long term. Due to a focus on industrial production in the region affordable housing has been more in demand. Large portions of Greater Noida and the Extension have been made to meet the needs of this segment. Affected by the weak economic trends, political uncertainties in the earlier part of 2014, prices saw a drop during this period like most other locations of Delhi NCR and the country as a whole. This change in sentiments may take longer than other locations for Noida. The ROI Index shows that the investment opportunity in medium and long term as warm and warm-hot respectively and that in short term as cold - luke warm. Read more about the future of Noida’s real estate on page 10.
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7,50,057 Population
(As per 2011 Census)
Sector 15, 63, 21, Noida Expressway, Noida Extension etc.
Major Residential Areas
Atta Market, Great India Place, Pari Chowk etc. Important Locations
10.11%
Planned Recreational Spaces
1,286
Population Density (Per Sq. Km.)
(Includes Gautam Budh Nagar data)
20,316 Land Size (in Hectares)
Proximity Index
Happiness Quotient Our Happiness quotient showed mixed results with a large disparity between the well developed, older sectors of Noida and the newly developed sectors on the Expressway or Greater Noida. Though the population was happy with the good connectivity, high speed roads and green open spaces, a high crime rate, lack of high quality commercial spaces limiting job opportunities and limited connectivity through public transport systems in the newly developed areas came as negatives for the region. The Happiness Quotient of Noida gave it a score of 52.75% on the index. Read more about the views of the residents of Noida and what makes them happy staying here on page 14.
48.99%
Safety & Wellness Index (SWI) The Gautam Budh Nagar District intends to build itself as a strong Educational and Medical hub in the region. There are number of schools, colleges, medical institutes and hospitals in the area though many more are planned in the near future. A high crime rate and lack of police stations keeping in mind the size of the region are limiting factors hurting Noida in this index. Read more about Noida’s SWI and its significance in the region’s growth on page 16.
Noida Statistics: Delhi NCR Master Plan 2021, Noida Master Plan 2031, Census 2011
Well connected to South Delhi through the Mathura and Ashram road, connected with other regions of Uttar Pradesh that fall under NCR such as Ghaziabad. Noida has better road connectivity within sectors especially with the introduction of the Expressway though public conveyances are still far less than the required levels. Noida will also need to closely monitor the progress of the Metro plans as that would play a crucial role in boosting Noida’s connectivity levels. Noida’s score on the Proximity Index is 49. It shows that there is a room for a lot of improvement. Read more about Noida’s proximity and its significance in the region’s growth on page 18.
Quick Facts*
1 2 3 4
A strong middle class, high number of retired personnel and students form a large part of the region’s population. Noida Expressway is one of the fastest road connectivity points in North India. With high inventory levels and a large number of units under construction it would take time for this stock to get consumed. Greater Noida has attracted substantially lesser number of end users than what was planned for the area.
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The Real Estate Numbers
Statistics
20,316 Total Area (In Hectares)
35.65%
Planned Residential Use of Land
About this section The section ‘Real Estate Numbers’ focuses on the ever critical financial aspects of a region that directly impact the price trends, appreciation levels and its future projections. This report of Home Makers has tried to provide decisive data from the city master plans, population census, on-ground and online studies conducted by the team that go a miss many a time. The ‘ROI Index’, a part of this section, is a fast evolving tool being developed by the team that amalgamates multiple aspects impacting price trends and acts as a guide for investors in their decision making process. The ‘Prominent Launches’ section lines up a few of the talked about upcoming developments in the region.
The New Okhla Industrial Development Authority (NOIDA) area came into existence in the year 1976 as a combination of a few villages on the Uttar Pradesh border of the National Capital Territory of Delhi, under the UP Industrial Area Development Act. Noida and its extension Greater Noida boasts of a population of 7,50,057 (as per the 2011 Census). A little over 1,00,000 of this population can be attributed to the Greater Noida region. With a focus on industrialization Noida provided ready area for industrial activities in close proximity to Delhi. With a planned allocation of land for industrial use in the year 1997 for the year 2011 (Plan), at little over 13% this has increased to 20.05% in the 2021 Regional Plan. A proposed area of 3001 hectares of land is planned to be put to industrial use in Noida. As per 2010 figures, 1267 hectares of land had already been brought under industrial use, till the end of the year. With rapid industrialization expected to take place and foreign inflow of funds on the rise, this region should become a favorable place for setting up of these new units. With industries being set up in Noida at a good pace the same cannot be said for the commercial sector. As much as 3.77% of land has been planned for commercial use as per the 2031 master plan though only a little over 1% had been developed by the year 2010. It is here that the authorities need more focus. As per plans land equivalent of 98.59 hectares has been earmarked
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3.77%
Planned Commercial Use of Land
20.05%
Planned Industrial Use of Land
6
Metro Stations (Existing)
Average Price Trends of Noida Plots (In Sq. Yards) Min. 13,015
Avg. 89,590
Max. 2,09,851
Appartments (In Sq. Ft.) Min. 3,191
Avg. 5,373
Max. 11,353
Amenities: NCR Planning Board- Water report (Regional Plan 2021) Statistics: Noida Master Plan 2031, Census 2011, DMRC map, Google search, Directorate of Education & Central Board for Secondary Education data, www.expedia.com, www. cleartrip.com, www.magicbricks.com, www.99acres.com,
Amenities
7.75Mtrs.
Average Depth at which water is available (Moderate)
80
Prominent Schools
89
Prominent Colleges
36
Prominent Hotels
134.6
Microgram/m3 (Residential)
Air Pollution (PM10 levels)
Moderate: 65-100
Population Graph Noida 1,46,514 in 1991 3,05,058 in 2001 6,42,381* in 2011 12,00,000 estimated in 2021
Greater Noida
*6,00,000 Holding Capacity in 2011
1,07,676* in 2011 12,00,000 estimated in 2021
*7,00,000 Holding Capacity in 2011
in Sector 32 and 25A for building of a City Center. 2,35,000 square meters of land had been allotted for development of commercial centers in the years 2010 – 2011. In addition to employment opportunities generated through industrial activities, IT and ITES sectors play a key role in employment generation in the region; it is hence that 427.25 hectares of land has been allotted for these services. Transportation and connectivity has been an issue for the Noida & Greater Noida regions. With limited linkages to Delhi, where a vast majority of its traffic comes from, a bottle neck scenario is quite evident. Even though the introduction of the Delhi Noida Delhi (DND) route and the extension of the old bridge connecting the two locations has helped matters, it is still not enough keeping in mind the future requirements of the area. The connectivity of Noida to other major locations of NCR such as Gurgaon and Faridabad are also the need of the hour. The proposed Faridabad, Noida, Gurgaon Expressway should ease the pressure in this regard. Noida also does not have a full-fledged railway station of its own for which there is also an urgent need. As per the 2031 Master Plan Noida is proposed to have its own railway station that would not only boost connectivity to other parts of NCR but also India. A glaring disparity between the macro and micro road-transport systems is also evident here. The road connectivity and available public transport avenues is limited within the city especially in Greater Noida. Metro connectivity though present in Noida is no where close to what is required. It is important for Noida’s metro connectivity to increase from the current 6 stations and for Greater Noida to get introduced to the Metro Rail at the earliest to boost demand in the area. From the tables we would like to bring to your notice that the prevailing water tables in Gautam Budh Nagar, that Noida and Greater Noida are a part of, is one of the highest in the NCR region. With good ground water levels due to close proximity to the Yamuna river, Noida also uses the Ganga water to mix it with the ground water prevalent in its territory in order to make it usable. This dependence on water from the Ganga, nonavailability of the same for 3-4 weeks in a year due to cleansing activities is important to keep in mind. Noida also aspires to become an important center for medical & healthcare facilities, with a thrust on both educational and multi-specialty units. There are plans for numerous schools and universities to focus on healthcare facilities, Research & Development and IT education in an even bigger manner. It would be pivotal to keep an eye on how the administration executes the development plans, quality of commercial infrastructure that will be laid out and the kind of audience it would attract from the corporate sector. This would play a key role in Noida’s real estate trends in the coming years. At the same time Greater Noida that was planned for a population of 7,00,000 by 2011 had only a little over 1,00,000 people living here as per the 2011 Census. A large number of legal land issues, lack of transportation avenues and slow demand were the reasons for the same keeping its prices on a check. Air Pollution: Average PM10 levels for the year 2013- Uttar Pradesh Pollution Control Board-Ambient Air,
09
ROI Index Greater Noida, Noida Expressway, Noida Extension and now the Taj Expressway there have been sweeping changes in Noida’s real estate horizon in the past decade or so. These new territories have not only added fresh inventory into Noida and the adjoining areas but have also lead to the expansion of the NCR region and impacted real estate trends across this whole spectrum. Fast development, good transport and distribution networks, connectivity to other locations of Uttar Pradesh that fall under NCR, proximity to South Delhi, good availability of ground water have been some of the reasons making real estate development conducive in Noida. Though the micro-city might not have received the high attention Gurgaon has received in the yester years, it has still remained a safe investment option for many. The years 2011 to 2012 have shown the highest appreciation levels in Noida in the recent years, a phenomenon in line with other prominent locations of NCR. At the same time with inventory in abundance across Greater Noida, Noida Expressway and the Extension areas this pace of growth could not be sustained for long. A price correction in the year 2014 due to the economic and political uncertainties has brought the Noida market like many others in NCR to a standstill. Lack of commercial office spaces has limited Noida’s growth prospects in the previous decade or so. This is where Gurgaon has scored over Noida and attracted a large corporate audience base. Moving forward Noida and its newly developed adjoining areas are bound to show good numbers in the longer term with good roads and infrastructure, ample green spaces and quality administrative planning. Traditionally Noida was developed with a focus on manufacturing and industrialization which has resulted in a high demand for affordable housing in the region. Lack of quality job opportunities in the high end services sector has limited Noida’s luxury housing market. This trend is now seeing a correction with quality commercial units coming up on the Noida Expressway, city center and other areas. Price affordability when compared to Delhi and Gurgaon is a vital factor for this changing trend. Some of the major locations with their price trends in the last five years are provided below.
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The ROI Index Signifies the estimated trends of real estate prices.
ColdLuke Warm
In Short Term (< 3 Years)
Warm Hot
Warm
In Mid Term (3-7 Years)
In Long Term ( > 7 Years)
High Return Period Signifies the percentage of real estate which has shown better returns
21.43%
50.00%
(<3 Years)
(3-7 Years)
In Short Term
In Mid Term
28.57*%
In Long Term (>7 Years)
*The figure has been taken as a projection keeping in mind the trend graph of a 7 year period
Economical for End User Signifies the percentage of real estate which would have been more economical on rent or as a purchase
47.06% Rent
vs
52.94% Purchase
Major Sectors With Their Price Trends 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
(Area
7,709
7,580
7,090
8,187
6,891
7,295
6,821
5,669
6,749
5,677
4,920
5,700
5,945 5,075
2009
)
(Price per Sq. Feet)
Sector 29
4,208 4,095
6,106 5,119
Sector 34
Sector 37
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Price VS Growth (Price per Sq. Ft.)
2014
INR 5,373
2%
2013
INR 5,275
17%
2012
INR 4,509
28%
2011
INR 3,525
-8%
2010
INR 3,819
-
Insights High inventory levels and under construction projects with further expansions taking place on most sides. Expectations of stable interest rates without much change in the near term and falling gold prices. With low quality commercial space availability the luxury and uber-luxury segments are bound to see slow / lackluster demand. Good demand for rental properties in the region and better rental yields as compared to South Delhi & Gurgaon. Connectivity through the metro and other public conveyances is a must to boost internal transport systems and long term success of the region. Good ground water levels should help support a large population base in the long term unlike other locations of NCR.
The ROI Index takes in to account numerous factors including past price trends, demand & supply factors, projected industry stats, consumer sentiments in the short term, planned infrastructural development and macro parameters that would shape the future of the region. The ‘ROI Index’ graph for Noida shows correction and slow growth levels in the short term. At the same time due to availability of land, better quality of infrastructure and connectivity the region should be set to do well in the long term with a stable growth cycle in the mid term. The recent drop in real estate prices across the country, especially NCR, lack of push in the demand cycle is bound to keep the market sluggish in the short term. At the same time with Noida and its adjoining extensions expanding at a fast pace it would take a longer time for these extensions to reap major rewards to its investors. The overall market scenario for Noida looks more stable than its neighbors with high rental yields as compared to asset values, higher end use and occupancy rates and stable growth charts in the past. Locations in close proximity to South Delhi should see faster growth trends for obvious reasons. The ROI Index is a comparative tool and takes into account the developments of neighboring regions while estimating the region’s internal factors.
Key Factors to Consider Affordable housing has provided good returns in the region with the trend set to continue in the future. Real Estate Prices vs Rental Yield have shown higher returns from the Gurgaon and South Delhi markets.
11755
8,144
4,433
4,605
11956
7,936
4,745
11021
3,879
7,058
3,415
4,495
7091
5,700
3,250
5,818
6057
5,144
6605
4,966
2,468 2,859
3,117 2,155
Sector 44
Sector 50
Sector Chi Pi
Pari Chowk
(Greater Noida)
Region is fast expanding adding new sectors and inventory to the supply. Highest return on investment has been achieved in the mid term with a positive outlook towards the long term.
(Greater Noida)
Sources: www.magicbricks.com, www.99acres.com have been referred for both new bookings and resale cases.
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Prominent Launches With the development of Noida and its off shoots such as Greater Noida, Noida Extension taking place at fast pace there are a number of prominent developers that are launching and completing their projects here. Some of the areas where these developments are taking place are provided below; The table on your right highlights some of the relatively new and upcoming projects, in Noida and Greater Noida region. The list is not an exhaustive list by itself and does not mention the projects in any order of preference. Home Makers does not, at any level, promote or holds preference for any of the above mentioned projects and this list of projects has been added for information only. In order to cover the vast territory of Noida & Greater Noida and its developments we have tried to include projects by prominent developers equally covering the Noida, Expressway, Great Noida including Noida Extension region. The old well established sectors of Noida have not been added to the above list due to relatively low transaction levels.
While evaluating any project we would urge you to study the following aspects closely The current status and planned administrative development of the location including its connectivity, amenities, social infrastructure etc. The nature of the project being evaluated and whether all the aspects of a township are being culminated in that region / pocket. Developer background and delivery of past projects both from the angle of time taken and quality of construction. The construction agency and other stakeholders involved with the project. The legal status of the land on which the project is being developed and whether or not the same is clear.
12
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Noida Sec - 93 A Noida Sec - 32 Noida Sec - 128 Noida Sec - 117 Noida Sec - 92 Sarjapur Kasna Road, Greater Noida Noida Extension Noida Sec - 129 Greater Noida Sec Omicrom
Greater Noida Chi 4 Sources: www.99acres.com
ATS Greens Village
Developer: ATS
Estimated Completion: Complete
Wave City
Developer: Wave Infratech Estimated Completion: 2016
Pavillion Court
Developer: Jaypee Greens Estimated Completion: 2014
Unitech Unihomes
Developer: Unitech Estimated Completion: 2014
Forest
Developer: Omaxe
Estimated Completion: Complete
Japyee Greens Golf & Country Spa Developer: Jaypee Greens Estimated Completion: Complete
Gaur City
Developer: Gaursons Estimated Completion: 2014
Jaypee Kasa Isles Developer: Jaypee Greens
Estimated Completion: 2015
Aurum
Developer: Eldeco
Estimated Completion: Complete
ATS Paradiso Developer: ATS
Estimated Completion: Complete
Quality Of Life About the Section ‘Quality of Life’ index evaluates the equally important social aspects of a region. These aspects go beyond the traditional demand & supply numbers; price trends etc. and actually give you an insight on the quality of life in the geography being referred to. It is important to keep in mind that it is this quality that attracts a person to make the critical decision of whether to settle in one location or the other. There are many regions that have seen the initial rise in real estate and have been much talked about but never really developed as a choice to consider for the enduser. We at Home Makers believe that it is extremely important to keep an eye on this index for evaluating the development of the region in the medium and long term.
Happiness Quotient (Higher percentages are considered better)
Noida over the last two decades has developed into a large micro-city accommodating a diverse group of people. Initially a large number of ex-Defence, retired officers and students inhabited the place in the late 1990s and early part of the 2000s. The team at Home Makers started with the task to actually understand ‘How Happy’ people are in Noida, what the issues prevalent are and what makes Noida the preferred location for many. The biggest positive that came out of the study was the availability of wide open roads and infrastructure in the region as they added to the connectivity of Noida. Quality green open spaces and large tracts of land enhanced the environment and improved the overall score for Noida on this index. Safety came out to be a major concern in Gautam Budh District especially the new areas of Greater Noida, Noida Extension and the Expressway with a number of smaller villages surrounding these areas and lack of connectivity to these places. Noida would also need to work on its social infrastructure such as schools, colleges, hospitals, police stations etc. as the current numbers are inadequate to meet the requirements of the entire district. Moreover there are only a handful of these facilities when you go into the newer sectors of this region. A large part of work opportunities in Noida focuses on IT and ITES services. A large section of Noida’s working population still travels to Delhi & Gurgaon for work. It is hence important for Noida to build on the work opportunities that it offers to its residents in the near future. Centrally located sectors such as Sector 18 and 27 scored much better than the newly developed areas in Noida Extension or Greater Noida with better connectivity and amenities available here.
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Scores
Highlights
47.47%
Amenities Available
50.50%
Feeling of Security
58.90%
Proximity to Work
63.36%
Lack of quality commercial spaces and jobs with a large section of the population traveling to Gurgaon and Delhi for work Safety levels in the area are a concern, especially in the new sectors. Good ground water availability though electricity supply shortage is a reality in some sectors.
Availability of Recreation Facilities
Disclaimer: In order to increase the accuracy of the above numbers the Happiness Quotient index has been appropriately molded and hence may have variations compared to the earlier reports.
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48.99%
Safety & Wellness Index
Scores The below data is indicative and represents a comparison with other regions of Delhi NCR.
(Higher percentages are considered better)
Ample open, green spaces, good township planning, focus on educational and medical facilities / centers helps Noida score moderately on the SWI. At the same time keeping in mind the large size of the region there is lot that still can be done in this regard. The availability of quality hospitals and police stations is low on the outskirts and newly developed areas of Noida. With the rigorous plans of the administration the score on this index is bound to improve in the coming years. With some of the largest medical institutions present in Noida such as Max Healthcare, Fortis, Jaypee Medical Center you are bound to find sound medical treatment in the region. When it comes to crime rates the story for Noida is similar to the other parts of Uttar Pradesh that fall under the NCR region. With a low score of 35.70% for crime in the area, Noida needs to pull its socks up in this regard. Noida also has a small number of police stations as compared to the sheer size of the region which limits the control over law and order in the territory. While interacting with the residents here the feeling of security was higher in the more established sectors. The administration though would need to increase their efforts in this regard for the Greater Noida region as with large tracts of land still pending development this area would need robust social infrastructure to improve on the security concerns. The population was moderately happy with the quality of air and noise pollution levels in the region which is a reality due to the large number of industrial units functioning in this territory. At the same time with quality planning, segregation of industrial and residential sectors, open spaces this issue has been dealt with appropriately. There was a stark difference between cleanliness levels in the old established sectors of Noida such as Sector 18, 26, 44 and the newly developed Extension & Expressway areas, where the new areas were found to be a lot cleaner. Connectivity came out to be an aspect that 16
59.31% Air Pollution
35.70%
Crimes Under IPC
28.37%
Connectivity to Police Stations
22.16% Connectivity to Hospitals Only Multi-Speciality
Highlights Crime rate levels in Noida have been higher as compared to other prominent locations of Delhi NCR The availability of police stations keeping in mind the size of Noida is also low. As compared to other micro-cities of NCR, Noida has a high availability of quality multi-specialty hospitals but there is a need for more work to be done here keeping in mind the large size of Noida. Being in the low lying area and due to the close proximity to river Yamuna, the Noida region is highly vulnerable to floods
Interesting Facts The statment show the top responses and the respective percentages
Noida scores extremely high on connectivity to all amenities and providing a green & quality environment to its residents Connectivity to amenities & Market Places
59.80%
Green Environment
32.66%
Commercial spaces
7.54%
Close to 40% of the respondents were service (employed) people with retired or non-working people being as high as 33%. Service
38.14%
Retired / Others
32.99%
Business
28.87%
Close to 40% of the respondents had their work areas more than 8 kms away from their residence. Under 3 kms
40.36%
3 - 8 kms
23.32%
8 - 15 kms
13.45%
More than 15 kms
22.87%
Cleanliness and safety issues is a concern for Noida with pollution being the third. Cleaniness
41.41%
Safety
34.38%
Pollution
24.22%
the new regions will have to work on as with no Metro presence and lack of public conveyances this will be an area to improve upon. The Safety & Wellness Index shows an accurate picture of the region and appropriately shares the views of its residents. The overall rating of Noida in the Safety & Wellness Index has scope for improvement. As Noida plans on building the micro-city as a destination for the education and health care industry there are many plans waiting to be implemented in this regard. This index is bound to show some interesting results in the coming years and would play an integral part in Noidaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s development.
Social Factors to Consider A quick survey undertaken by the Home Makers team in the region showed some eye opening facts about the region and should surely be considered while making a decision on whether or not stay or invest in the region. The results are part of a sample survey conducted in Noida in the regions of Sector 18, 26, 27, 29, 44, Noida Extension and Noida Expressway . The survey equally covered residents of all ages, men & women, working professionals and non-working population, employed people and businessmen. A sample size of over 400 respondents has been put together for this study. The above trends may not cover the entire population of this region but do give an indication to the current scenarios prevailing here. 17
Proximity Index The below chart highlights Noidaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s proximity score to various prominent locations, landmarks, connectivity zones of Delhi NCR and nearest amenities within the region. It is important to keep in mind that a critical aspect for development or appreciation of any region is its location and proximity to all important parts of the city and amenities / services.
Proximity Chart
Connectivity This shows representative figures and not the actual proximity to a location. The higher the amenity or location/ zone on the above scale the closer it is estimated to be in the region.
59.5%
Critical Transportation Points
65.0%
Prominent Junctions
36.9%
Amenities & Public Conveniences
49%
Proximity Index
58%
Distance from work place score
71%
Market Connectivity Score
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Closest
farthest
90%
Avg. distance from nearest
70%
Avg. distance from nearest ISBT
Metro station Sector 84, Noida
Avg. distance Avg. distance from from
DND
36 Hotels
Ring Road
50%
30%
10%
Avg. distance from nearest
Avg. Distance from
Airport
Railway Station
Avg. distance
Avg. distance from
from Noida
Kundli Manesar Palwal Expressway
Greater Noida Expressway
15
Multi-Speciality Hospitals
12 Malls
9
Police Stations
19
Game Changers A balanced growth, relatively higher rental value as compared to other prominent regions of NCR and a strong development plan on ground should place Noida & Greater Noida well in the coming years. Noida has seen both investor and end user attention in the last decade or so and the trend is likely to continue. A few of the factors that could impact the market and should be kept in mind in case you are investing in this area are;
Macro Factors Co-Related to Noida’s Growth Gold Prices
The ROI Index study shows a high correlation between gold price trends and real estate prices in Noida. A stagnant growth trend is expected for Gold in the coming quarters.
Interest Rates
The ROI Index study for Noida showed a moderately high positive correlation with the bank’s lending rates. In case interest rates see a fall to encourage liquidity in the markets in the short term it could have a positive impact on demand levels.
High Inventory Levels
The Gautam Budh District especially Greater Noida and Expressway areas have high inventory levels, with the lack of demand and transaction levels in the current scenario this inventory will see a slow consumption cycle.
Key Factors Focus on Commercial Centers
As per the 2031 Noida Master Plan 3.77% of the land is to be put to commercial use. Till 2010 only a little over 1% had been accomplished for this purpose. A faster pace of movement from the authorities, would enhance job creation and there by demand in the area. Learning from the Gurgaon model this single handedly would be the key catalyst for real estate appreciation.
Be an area of choice for new entrant MNCs
In addition to industrial spaces, most commercial offices in Noida have been established in the IT and the Services sector with the back end support teams located here. Most corporate offices and high end support centers are still getting established in Gurgaon and Delhi. It would be vital for Noida to change this trend and become the first choice for new companies entering India for their headquarters.
Build on Improving Internal Connectivity Noida authorities need to work hard on improving internal connectivity, especially within its relatively newer sectors, Noida Extension and the Greater Noida region. Pubic transport systems such as buses, taxis and auto rickshaws are still inadequate making many areas largely inaccessible. The Metro Rail plan that proposes to connect Noida City Center with Greater Noida, sector 147, 143, 101, 85, 50, Pari Chowk, Botanical Garden amongst others could prove to be a game changer in this regard.
Providing a clean access
The recent order from the National Green Tribunal has proved as a setback for a number projects which are now getting clearances for offering possession. The earlier Noida Extension row also marred Noida’s reputation in providing an investor friendly and clean environment for real estate development in the region. The authorities will have to take serious steps in order to avoid such blemishes in the future which could cause considerable damage to Noida’s real estate ambitions.
Development of the new Areas
The real estate market of the Gautam Budh District would depend a lot on the development of CBD zones within its territory. How a Greater Noida develops in terms of availability quality job opportunities or Noida City Center develops in terms of commercial offerings and life after work opportunities is going to play a vital role.
Crime rate and Safety Index
High crime rate levels, low connectivity to police stations, quality hospitals, schools and lack of other public conveniences especially in the newly developed areas pose road blocks to the quality of life that Noida intends to offer. The social infrastructure of these regions will have to be developed at a quick pace to facilitate rapid consumption of inventories available here.
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The Outlook Noidaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s real estate sector has seen a big drop in transaction levels in the last few quarters. This drop in demand has also resulted in price corrections in some sectors where as price growth in the other sectors has also been much lower than earlier trends. A weak economy and political uncertainties in the first half of 2014 has had a similar effect on real estate across most parts of the country and Noida is no exception. The future of Noida would now be dependent on how its administration is able to attract and provide an investor friendly environment and create high quality jobs in the city. In comparison to prominent parts of Delhi and Gurgaon, Noida provides more reasonable real estate options which are attracting more and more corporates lately. It is going to be critical to see how the administration and other major stakeholders of Noida are going to play a catalyst in facilitating this growth in Noidaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s commercial real estate segment. Will Noida be able to achieve this turn around in the long term? Home Makers would keep a close eye on these developments. Noida and the Greater Noida region will be seeing one of the highest numbers of real estate project launches and completions in the coming year which is going to continue to keep its inventory levels high. Due to high inventory levels, no expectations of drop in interest rates in the next couple of quarters, a cautious market, Noida & Greater Noida may not give the highest returns in the short term. With large tracts of land under development and the micro-city with its extensions quickly expanding in a planned manner the potential for Noida is immense. Quality roads, connectivity, open green spaces are some of the highlights that place Noida in a good position for the future. Sectors in close proximity to South Delhi would see sharper increase in prices in the medium term. Greater Noida and Noida Expressway should become attractive options over a long term dependent on the quality of commercial infrastructure that comes up in these areas. Would Noida be able to pull off a high price appreciation trend for its real estate would be hugely dependent on the number of jobs and nature of jobs it creates in the coming years. Availability of ground water, planned infrastructure and large open spaces provide an opportunity to create world class townships in this region. It is imperative that the authorities make the most of these and also create a legally strong investment friendly environment that has been lacking in the territory for long.
Live Wire > A sluggish market in the short
term with limited demand and transaction levels. Price levels should remain stagnant to a large extent. > Infrastructural developments
such as the metro rail, use of commercial spaces, new entrants from the corporate sector etc. would play a key role in determining Noidaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future. > Expectation of normalization of
growth in the medium term and good returns in the long term with a close eye on job creation within the territory. > Affordable housing would see
better returns and acceptance in Noida & Greater Noida in the longer term. Top of the line, superluxury projects may remain limited in number due to the current market dynamics. > The absence of an airport and
lack of public conveyances in the newer sectors will hurt Noida in the short and mid term and limit the speed of absorption of its high inventory levels. >Noida City Center may come up
as an important commercial point for the NCR region in the longer term horizon.
*Any epicenter in context of this report is a location/ micro region with a definitive boundary where all amenities of livelihood are available such as a micro township.
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About Home Makers Home Makers is the real-estate research and services arm of NNA Consultancy Services and aims at helping both endusers and investors make informed decisions pertaining to their housing / investment requirements. Unlike the current options in the market Home Makers focuses on conducting customized research for its client keeping in line with their needs and the macro real estate environment. Adding to that Home Makers offers the option of research solutions that can be availed for large projects, investment decisions or development strategies. Home Makers ‘Regional Reports’ are an amalgamation of standard real estate and township planning data collated from in-house research and varied sources clubbed with an insight on the social capital of the region. The reports do not only provide you an insight into historic, current and future numeric trends but also a feedback from the residents of the region on the quality of life, availability of amenities and other important aspects impacting life in the region.
The Research Brief At Home Makers we believe that it is imperative to have a holistic approach to research of any kind and that scientific data mining tools should be used to collect and collate data. With this in mind Home Makers has carefully carved its approach for research in the real estate sector which effectively amalgamates both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the industry and its assets.
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The Process Flow
1
Decoding Administrative Plans
2
Phase wise study of the region
3
Conducting a specific online/ on-ground research on the region
Here the team adequately studies the city/ state master plans in detail and decodes the relevant information such as historic population trends, projected capacity building, planned infrastructure such as roads, markets, petrol pumps, schools, colleges, commercial spaces, hospitals etc. and any other major planned development.
In order to understand the quality of infrastructure / amenities available in the region the team systematically divides the region into sub parts for implementing a phased study of the whole region. Essentially this would mean that in a region has 100 sectors, ten critical sectors might be studied in the first phase of the study, another ten in the second phase and so on. This would essentially mean that post reaching the third or fourth phase of Home Maker’s study of a given region there may be a few developments that change the overall view of the region as our exposure to the region increases.
Here the team goes on ground to interact with the residents of the region (specific pockets) and understand their views on the region, its quality of life, infrastructure, connectivity, easy availability of amenities, work opportunities, safety etc. It is through this study that one is able to understand the actual delivery of the plan that had been proposed by the administration. A single phase for a region being researched on would have a sample size of 300 – 500 respondents.
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Quality Check Mechanism
4
Studying the Planned Projects / Dwelling Units in the region
5
Using Home Makers models
6
A thorough check from both online and onground sources is conducted to monitor the new/upcoming residential and infrastructure projects in the region etc.
The team is undertaking pilots and developing standard quantitative & qualitative, SMART models, for estimating price projections, social development and safety wellness trends. Each region is plotted on these indexes so that a comparative ranking process can be implemented. This enables Home Makers to have an apple to apple comparison between two regions or zones of a territory.
Collation & Representation Finally all the above study is collated and presented in front of the audience in an easy to understand and user friendly manner for them to make their own inferences of a given region. The use of infographics, visuals and quantifiable data are some of the key ingredients of a Home Makers report that helps you take with you a clear picture of a region.
Undertaking such a large study can be a challenge for any organization and error percentages could also be high in case the study is not undertaken in the right manner. In order to minimize on the possibilities of errors throughout the study cycle, check mechanisms have been placed at various steps.
Validating data from authorized governmental and nongovernmental sources. A three level check system for all data before it is published. On-ground surveys of a region to understand the gap between planned and real development. Sample checks on price trends and inventory levels from regional brokers and consultants. Sample check on questionnaires filled by residents by making direct calls. Use of standard models and correlation studies to evaluate financial data. The above steps are some of the many checks that have been placed for the accuracy of the information being provided.
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Glossary Parameters
Sources
Average Distances between two locations
Google Maps
Historical Price Trends
www.magicbricks.com, www.99acres.com have been referred for both new bookings and resale cases.
Current Price Trends
www.magicbricks.com, www.allcheckdeals.com have been referred for new booking rates and sample checked for prevailing prices on ground.
Existing and Estimated Population Trends
Census of India 2011, Delhi NCR MPD 2021, Noida Master Plan-2031
No. of Metro Stations, Sub Stations
Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) data, on ground visits and google maps.
No. of Metro Stations planned after Phase 3 DMRC phase 3 Hospitals
On ground visits and google maps.
Fire Stations
Noida Master Paln-2031, google maps and on ground visits
Malls
On ground visits, Expedia, Ixigo and google maps
Prominent Marketplace
On ground visits, google maps.
Police Stations
Noida Police Data, State Government data for police and google maps
Avg Water Table
NCR Planning Board-Water report (Regional Plan 2021)
Crime Rate
Government records for Crime in India 2012
No. of Hotels
On ground visits, Expedia, Cleartrip and google maps data
Cinemas
On ground visits and google maps
Avg Air Pollution
Uttar Pradesh Pollution Control Board-Ambient Air Quality(PM10 levels have been referred to) for the calendar year 2013
Sports Complex
On ground visits and google maps.
Proposed area used for commercial spaces MPD 2021 Zonal Master Plans, Noida 2031 Master plan
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Parameters
Sources
Prominent Flyovers
On ground visits, google maps and report â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Skyscrapers in the city
No. of Schools
Directorate Of Education and Central Board for Secondary Education data.
No. of Colleges
Government Data for affiliations from Uttar Pradesh Technical University and Uttar Pradesh University, on-ground visits and google maps
No. of Creches
Google maps.
Distances & Connectivity
Sample Survey of Home Makers.
Quality of Basic Amenities
Sample Survey of Home Makers.
Sense of safety & wellness
Sample Survey of Home Makers.
The following tools and models have been utilized while preparing the inferences shared in this report Indexes
Coverage
ROI Index
Industrial IIP numbers, VIX, SENSEX trends, State GDP, Inflation, REPO rates, Gold rates etc. have been considered while formulating the index.
Happiness Quotient
Sample Survey of Home Makers, Infrastructure development numbers, proximity and quality of amenities have been considered
Safety & Wellness
Sample survey of Home Makers, government data and weighted average across these parameters have been considered.
Proximity Index
On ground research, google maps for connectivity and weighted average of these parameters have been considered.
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The Report This is a periodic report prepared for the first half of the year 2014 specifically for the region of Noida. Readers should use the information in this report for guidance purposes only and should conduct their own study before taking a decision in regards to this market. NNA Consultancy Services does not take responsibility of the accuracy of the data in the report and that which has been collated from third party sources.
Disclaimers The market data and information contained herein (â&#x20AC;&#x153;Informationâ&#x20AC;?) is the product or service of multiple parties that may or may not be affiliated to NNA Consultancy Services Pvt. Ltd. (NCS). None of the Information represents the opinion of, counsel from, recommendation or endorsement by NCS, or its Affiliates, Officers, Employees or Agents. The properties/projects that are indicated/ mentioned herein above have been selected randomly for the purpose of this report only and that such mention/indication of the same does not, in anyway whatsoever indicate any preference or promotion by NCS of the same. NCS does not intend to suggest or promote any specific area, builder, developer or construction company that may have been mentioned / indicated in this report. You may not use the Information for any unlawful purpose or any purpose not expressly permitted hereby. Reproduction of the Information in any form is prohibited. Users are requested to use the Information at their sole risk. NCS or its Affiliates, Officers, Employees or Agents shall not be liable and expressly disclaim liability for any error or omission in the content of the Information, or for any actions taken by any one directly or indirectly, in reliance thereon. The Information is not guaranteed to be errorfree, or to be relied upon for investment purposes, and NCS or its Affiliates, Officers, Employees or Agents make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, truth, adequacy, timeliness or completeness, fitness for purpose, title, non infringement of third party rights or continued availability of the Information.
No Warranty In no event shall NCS or its Affiliates, officers, employees or agents be liable for loss or damage of any kind whatsoever (including, without limitation, any special, consequential, incidental or indirect damages, or damages for loss of profits, business interruption, and any and all forms of loss or damage) to any one under any circumstances. All queries can be directed towards Divyanshu Nagpal Director, NNA Consultancy Services Pvt. Ltd +91 - 9818300327 divyanshunagpal@nnaindia.com
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