Jan 2015 | Vol. 01
NUMBERS BEHIND ZONE G West Delhi 1
Radisson Blu Hotel Paschim Vihar
NUMBERS BEHIND ZONE G West Delhi 1
Delhi International Airport
CONTENTS About the Region ...........................................................
06
Real Estate Numbers Administrative Snapshot ....................................................
08
The ROI Index (Changing price trends) ..............................
10
New Launches ..................................................................
12
Quality of Life Index The Happiness Quotient ...................................................
14
The Safety & Wellness Index .............................................
16
Social factors to consider ..................................................
17
The Proximity Chart ..........................................................
18
Game Changers .............................................................
20
The Outlook ....................................................................
21
Our Research Approach ...............................................
22
Glossary .........................................................................
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About
The Region Located on the West side of Delhi, Zone G, also known as West Delhi 1, counts for some of the most popular industrial zones, urban colonies and connectivity points in NCR. The airport, cantonment area or the Tihar Jail are some of the prominent locations in the region. Zone G also boasts of popular residential colonies like Punjabi Bagh (West), Rajouri Garden, Janakpuri, Raja Garden etc. With good connectivity through roads, ample flyovers, presence of the metro rail Zone G has developed as a prominent area of the National Capital Region (NCR). This report would delve on various aspects of Zone G, its past trends, administrative plans for the future, the level of happiness of their residents in its current capacity and future projections.
ROI Index Looking at the historic trends in the region Zone G has traditionally been an end user market though the newer areas in the region do also have good demand for rentals. The more mature sections of the zone enjoy a high occupancy thereby reducing transaction levels. These sections predominantly come across as a seller’s market. Though affected by the macro economic number and investor sentiments Zone G has been a secure bet for real estate transactions. Property prices here have shown a steady return but might not be as high as some of the other developed regions of NCR. The ROI Index shows that the investment opportunity in medium and long term as luke warm and hot respectively with a special inclination towards the newly developed locations here.
ZONE-G 17,17,000
Population as per 2001 Census
Paschim Vihar, Janakpuri, Raja Garden etc.
Major Residential Sectors
26.53%
Planned Recreational Space
Quick Facts*
1
The Rohtak Road, Najafgarh Road, NH8, Ring Road all fall under it.
2
The Indira Gandhi International Airport and the Domestic airport that fall under the G-15 section of the zone are estimated to have a footfall of over 66 million by 2021.
Read more about the future of Zone G’s real estate on page 10.
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STATISTICS 11,060
Population Per Sq. Km.
Indira Gandhi International Airport, NH8, Tihar Jail, Cantonment Area Important Locations
11,865
Land Size in Hectares
3
With limited number of hospitals there is a need for more medical infrastructure in the zone.
4
Redevelopment plans should have an impact in the near future with planned development that can increase the projected population of the region.
Happiness Quotient Our Happiness quotient suggests that the residents of the region are moderately happy with the region though there is a room for a lot of improvement in this matrix. There are several facilities that the region offers to its residents both in terms of recreation, utilities and the availability of basic amenities etc. though they lack the standard and quality offered by some of the other regions of NCR such as South Delhi or Gurgaon. Limited number of quality commercial spaces also force a section of the population to travel further away, though a large section of the society also gets its employment opportunities from the markets and malls in close vicinity. Read more about the views of the residents of Zone G and what makes them happy staying here on page 14.
51.54%
Safety & Wellness Index (SWI) Green open spaces provide a healthy environment for the residents in many residential areas of Zone G though nearby industrial areas also do raise pollution levels at select locations. Limited number of quality medical facilities and a relatively high crime rate also effects the region’s score on the SWI. Read more about the Safety & Wellness Index on page 16.
Proximity Index Well connected to Central & North West Delhi and Gurgaon the region also includes the domestic and international airport which increases the zone’s importance manifold. With the presence of the metro rail in prominent locations and ample flyovers the zone is well connected with other parts of NCR. At the same time limited availability of social amenities such as multi-specialty hospitals, quality malls, schools etc. give Zone G a modest 41.86% on the Proximity Index. Read more about the Proximity Index on page 18.
* Zone G is a part of West Delhi region, which is approximately 130 sq. kms. in size, and is collectively represented in the Census 2011 data.
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The Real Estate Numbers About this section About the Section: The section ‘Real Estate Numbers’ focuses on the ever critical financial aspects of a region that directly impact the price trends, appreciation levels and its future projections. This report of Home Makers’ has tried to provide decisive data from the city master plans, population census, on-ground and online studies conducted by the team that go a miss many a time. The ‘ROI Index’, a part of this section, is a fast evolving tool being developed by the team that amalgamates multiple aspects impacting price trends and acts as a guide for investors in their decision making process. The ‘Prominent Projects’ section lines up a few of the talked about upcoming developments in the region.
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Statistics
11,865 Total Area (In Hectares)
402
Air Pollution (Hazardous Level)
1.77%
31.44%
3.07%
10
Planned Commercial Use of Land
Planned Industrial Use of Land
Planned Residential Use of Land
Metro Stations Planned (Including Planned in Phase 3)
Population Graph 16,29,000 in the year 2001 19,40,000 in the year 2011
(taken in approximate comparing previous trends)
19,55,000 estimated in the year 2021
Zone G or popularly known as West Delhi- 1 is earmarked with the Delhi-Rohtak Railway Line in the North, National Highway 8 in the South – East and the Najafgarh drain and Pankha road in the South – West. It has Dwarka, Bahadurgarh & Gurgaon in close proximity. The zone has been divided into 18 sub-zones, Ramesh Nagar, Janakpuri Area and Jwalaheri / Paschim Vihar are the approved zones in this region. The zone includes a large cantonment area and the airport area within its boundaries which gives Zone G a lot of importance. Due to the presence of the airport there is a heavy traffic flow in the zone which is estimated to be over 66 million by the year 2021. There is hence a presence of a large number of budget, 3 star hotels in the zone. Being one of the older zones of the city Zone G has been a part of the master plans since the MPD 1962 and boasts of some of the highly priced colonies of Delhi NCR. www.homemakers.co.in
Amenities
4.1- 9.2
Mtrs.
Average Depth at which water is available (Over Exposed)
11.43 -12.49 Mtrs. Overall Delhi
8
Prominent Hotels
233
Prominent Schools
9
Prominent Colleges
Average Price Trends of the Zone G Plots
(In Sq. Yards)
Min 91,917
Apartments Min 4,364
Avg. 2,98,512
Max 5,96,187
(In Sq. Ft.)
Avg. 11,200
Max 16,773
With a land size of over 11,000 hectares about 1/3rd of the size of the Gurgaon district the zone had a population of over 19 lakhs as per 2011 Census. There were a number of rehabilitation colonies set up in this zone post independence for displaced families such as Kirti Nagar, Moti Nagar, Punjabi Bagh East, Ramesh Nagar, Subhash Nagar etc. Najafgarh road industrial area, Karam Pura industrial area, Kirti Nagar industrial area, Lakkad Mandi, Mayapuri Phase 1-2, DSIDC Rohtak Road etc. are some of the prominent industrial zones in the region employing a large section of the work force for Zone G. There are also many well known wholesale and retail markets in the region in Paschim Vihar, Janak Puri areas which also work as district centers. The region is also connected by the metro with the presence of 10 metro stations. (including phase 3 plans). In fact some of the metro connectivity lines in the region are one of the busiest in NCR and are a great help for residents. With a large part of the land planned for industrial use the region is bound to see a lot more development.
The west area of NH 8 (G 18) covers 1475 hectares of land and includes 605 hectares of urbanisable area which should see a large amount of development in the coming years. Close proximity to Gurgaon, presence of large industrial areas and the airport are a great boon for the region. Zone G (falling under the West Delhi region) has an average ground water level of 4.1 – 9.2 meters which is better off than many regions of NCR. The region has seen an average decline in ground water levels of 0.1 to 0.2 meters annually. With large concentration of industrial units and a large urban population there is always a pressure on the water tables in the zone. The air pollution levels here are also a concern. Due to heavy industrialization there is high amount of pollution in the air with average PM 2.5 levels at 402. Keeping in mind the high pollution levels and the presence of a large urban population the administration has prohibited the presence of select industries in the region. Restricted activities in the household industries, up-gradation of old industries etc. are a few of the initiatives taken in this regard. Being one of the older settlements of NCR Zone G boasts of a healthy social infrastructure with good number of schools and other educational institutes present in the zone, which also has sports complexes developed in Paschim Vihar, Maya Puri and Hari Nagar. Colleges and vocational training centers are also available in the region. With the presence of the airport there are a number of luxury and budget hotels in the region, commonly used by both international and domestic travellers to Delhi. Zone G has accommodated a large population of business owners and refugees since its inception. There are many home grown family enterprises that have come up from here. Even though there is economic disparity in the region with a number of economically weaker urban villages present here locations such as Punjabi Bagh (West), Janakpuri and Rajouri Garden do hold high real estate price trends and accommodate the affluent class. With the Delhi re-development plans in the making it would be interesting to see the additional population that Zone G would accommodate in the coming years and the development of its unused / lesser used zones.
* Zone G is a part of West Delhi region in the Census 2011 and the population of the complete West Delhi region was 25,43,243 in 2011.
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ROI Index West Delhi 1 has traditionally been a strong micro market for real estate with high price levels maintained by many sections. The well known areas of Punjabi Bagh (West), Janakpuri, Paschim Vihar etc. have maintained high price levels over a period of time and were one of the first areas to develop in the city. With a large refugee population entering post the independence period these localities were developed by the administration to cater to this new population of Delhi. It has hence maintained a traditional strong hold in the real estate arena with newer localities developing in close vicinity in the past couple of decades. Areas such as Mahavir Enclave, Mohan Garden etc. are the newer additions to West Delhi 1’s inventory. Being a mature real estate market West Delhi 1 does not invite large transactional volumes as compared to the newer regions of NCR such as Gurgaon or Noida. With the re-development plans coming into place for Delhi the well known plotted colonies of West Delhi 1 should be able to add more area (FSI) which could catalyze the transaction number in the near future. With fresh inventory made available there should be a spurt in demand in the mid term. At the same time the newer developments in the region are sure to see higher upward corrections in the mid and the long term as demand levels would be higher here keeping in mind affordability of the real estate asset. West Delhi 1 has provided moderate returns in the last few years with sporadic growth in the year 2011 when other NCR sectors also saw a steep rise. Owing to the economic downturn and political uncertainties the Zone G market like other markets around saw a steep fall in demand levels leading to drop in prices in the year 2013 & 2014. With the recent price corrections across the Delhi NCR market it would be interesting to see which areas would attract maximum demand levels in the short term. At the same time with good connectivity, proximity to all amenities availability of quality infrastructure many parts of West Delhi 1 would find takers in the market. At the same time it is pivotal to see how the newer regions of NCR develop in the coming years and the share of audience that they would get. Development of Gurgaon, located in close proximity to West Delhi or Noida would have an impact on the demand levels in the longer term. The price trends in this region have had a high correlation with prevailing investment sentiments in the market. Price of gold and manufacturing numbers have shown a high positive correlation with real estate prices in Zone G. It is hence not a surprise with the falling gold prices and
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Price VS Growth (Price per Sq. Ft.)
2014
INR 11,200
-13%
2013
INR 12,831.50
-6%
2012
INR 13,658.50
20%
2011
INR 11,414
80%
2010
INR 6,333
-21%
2009
INR 7,978
Major Sectors with Their Price Trends (Price per Sq. Yards) 16,247
5,822
13,415
17,215
4,931
NA
15,287
3,950
13,003
9,006 8,722
4,143 NA
8,819 7,978
Janakpuri
Mahavir Enclave 1
Paschim Vihar
12,727
12,936
NA
NA
12,239
6,096
11,021
11,807
3,385
9,308 9,697
6,755 6,910
4,214 NA
Rajouri
Vikas Puri
Uttam Nagar
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
*The figure has been taken as a projection keeping in mind the trend graph of a 7 year period
High Return Period Signifies the percentage of real estate which has shown better returns
33%
In Short Term (< 3 Years)
17%
In Mid Term (< 7 Years)
50%
In Long Term (> 7 Years)
*The above table only considers price trends and rental yields with 2009 as base year.
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Key Factors to Consider
The ROI Index
The nature of property being purchased and whether it is in the mid segment or luxury segment.
Signifies the estimated trends of real estate prices.
Plots have shown better returns in Zone G with builder floors garnering higher transaction levels.
Luke Warm
In Short Term (< 3 Years)
Luke Warm
In Mid Term (3-7 Years)
Hot
Traditionally the highest return on investment has been achieved in West Delhi 1 in the long term with a spurt in 2011-12. Though due to economic and political uncertainties 2013 and 2014 have seen a drastic drop in the region.
In Long Term ( > 7 Years)
Signifies the percentage of real estate which would have been more economical on rent or as a purchase
Rent
With the increased FAR levels, new inventory is bound to be added to this zone which should have an impact on the demand – supply dynamics.
low manufacturing numbers in the recent past that real estate prices here have also shown a similar trend.
Economical for End User
67% vs
Well connected region with the airport, metro and other conveniences available in the zone
33%
Purchase
Insights Low inventory levels with no major new development. Expectations of a fall in gold prices, moderate interest rates in the near term would keep demand levels under check. With the manufacturing numbers and other economic indicators set to improve over a couple of years it should have a positive impact on real estate prices here in the mid term. Leasing has remained a more reasonable option over the past decade and this trend should continue atleast over the next few years. Connectivity through the metro and other public conveyances is strong in the region. The new metro connectivity lines should have a positive impact on real estate prices. The newer additions to Zone G such as Mahavir Enclave should see higher returns in the mid and long term as compared to other parts of the zone. *The table only considers price trends and rental yields with 2009 as base year. *The figure has been taken as a projection keeping in mind the trend graph of a 7 year period.
Majority of the properties in Zone G should show a better return in the longer term horizon. This trend is in line with many other mature real estate markets in Delhi NCR. Some of the major locations with their price trends in the last six years are provided in this section. The ROI Index takes in to account numerous factors including past price trends, demand & supply factors, projected industry stats, consumer sentiments in the short term, planned infrastructural development and macro parameters that would shape the future of the region. The ‘ROI Index’ graph for Zone G shows limited scope for high appreciation levels in the short term due to the recent drop in the real estate prices in the last couple of years. The market would take a natural course of recovery as the market sentiments and economic numbers improve over the course of time. The historically high price trends in the more mature sections of this region have seen a correction which have made the real estate assets here more affordable and should attract the eyes of the investors. At the same time there may be a further fall in prices in the near term which would make the real estate price recovery even slower. A sporadic growth trend can be expected in the mid term as the economy comes out from its current challenges. The newer sections of this zone that are more reasonably priced at this point of time should see the maximum appreciation levels in the longer term. Like many developed zones of Delhi NCR there is a huge disparity between real estate asset prices and the rental levels. From an end user point of view leasing has remained a cheaper option. This has also lead to a big rental demand for real estate here. The ROI Index is a comparative tool and takes into account the developments of neighbouring regions in addition to the region’s internal factors.
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Prominent Projects With Zone G being a well developed region of Delhi NCR there are only a limited number of new offerings. The locations of Punjabi Bagh and Rajouri Garden hardly have any inventory left. Some of the areas where these developments are taking place are provided in this section. The table highlights some of the relatively new / upcoming localities and projects in West Delhi 1. The list is not exhaustive by itself and does not mention the projects in any order of preference. Home Makers does not, at any level, promote or holds preference for any of the mentioned projects and this list of projects has been added for information only. In order to cover the vast territory of West Delhi and its developments we have included some of the upcoming localities and initiatives of Delhi Development Authority (DDA) and mid segment housing units in the region. The premium segment units of the old and well established colonies have not been added to the above list due to low transaction levels.
While evaluating any project we would urge you to study the following aspects closely: The current status and planned administrative development of the location including its connectivity, amenities, social infrastructure etc. The nature of the project being evaluated and whether all the aspects of a township are being culminated in that region / pocket. Developer background and delivery of past projects both from the angle of time taken and quality of construction. The construction agency and other stakeholders involved with the project. The legal status of the land on which the project is being developed and whether or not the same is clear.
SOURCES: www.99acres.com
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DLF Capital Greens Developer: DLF
Moti Nagar
Estimated Completion: 2016
Parsvnath Paramount Developer: Paramount
Subhash Nagar
Estimated Completion: 2016
Paschim Vihar North Developer: Private Developers
Paschim Vihar
Estimated Completion: Complete
A1 Block
Janakpuri
Developer: Private Developers Estimated Completion: Complete
Sunder Vihar
Developer: Private Developers
Paschim Vihar
Reserve Bank Enclave
Paschim Vihar
Estimated Completion: Complete
Developer: Private Developers Estimated Completion: Complete
B Block
Developer: PP Buildwell Estimated Completion: 2017
Janakpuri
Quality Of Life About the Section ‘Quality of Life’ index evaluates the equally important social aspects of a region. These aspects go beyond the traditional demand & supply numbers; price trends etc. and actually give you an insight on the quality of life in the geography being referred to. It is important to keep in mind that it is this quality that attracts a person to make the critical decision of whether to settle in one location or the other. There are many regions that have seen the initial rise in real estate and have been much talked about but never really developed as a choice to consider for the end-user. We at Home Makers believe that it is extremely important to keep an eye on this index for evaluating the development of the region in the medium and long term.
Happiness Quotient (Higher percentages are considered better)
Zone G has traditionally supported a large number of population with most of its territories well established. ‘Home Makers’ started with the task to understand the ‘Happiness Levels’ of people in Zone G, what the issues prevalent are and what makes Zone G the location of choice for many. The zone has faired moderately across most sub parameters including availability of amenities, recreational facilities, proximity to work etc. Even though security levels came out as a concern from our on-ground studies the numbers did prove better than many other regions of Delhi NCR. A green cover, consistent supply of electricity and a centralized position enhancing connectivity were some of the highlights of the region. Water availability and quality of ground water was raised as a concern at a few locations. Zone G has been developed with many parks and other green spaces forming a good environment for its residents. It is important to keep in mind the diverse, geographic spread of Zone G with both old traditionally well settled areas and some relatively new sections. Here areas such as Janakpuri, Tilak Nagar, Punjabi Bagh (West), Paschim Vihar, Moti Nagar have been considered for the on ground surveys. A good number of malls and a bustling local market adds to the flavor that Zone G brings to the table. The areas like Punjabi Bagh, Rajouri Garden etc. have traditionally strong local shopping markets that also provide livelihood opportunities for many of its residents. Malls and arcades are also a plenty here though not comparable to the high street malls of Vasant Kunj or a Saket in South Delhi. There is a shortage of quality commercial spaces in the region which should continue to remain a challenge with the lack of availability of land. Even though West Delhi 1 brings with it a lot of history it would have to work on many aspects to offer the quality of life that its residents expect.
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Scores
Highlights
45.97%
Amenities Available
60.17%
Feeling of Security
48.57%
Proximity to Work
45.36 %
Availability of Recreation Facilities
Availability of basic amenities with market areas in close proximity, connectivity to Gurgaon & the Central Business District- Connaught Place and South Delhi. Safety levels have shown better numbers than many other parts of NCR. Lack of commercial and high end retail spaces does force its residents to travel further to other parts of NCR.
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53.67%
Safety & Wellness Index (Higher percentages are considered better)
Zone G offers green open spaces and show controlled statistics which gives it a balanced score on the SWI.
Scores The below data is indicative and represents a comparison with other regions of Delhi NCR.
Some of the well known medical facilities of the region include Anand Hospital, Ansari Hospital, Sanchet Hospital, Central Hospital etc. though keeping in mind the size of the region and the population it covers there is a need for more such facilities to be developed in the coming years.
32.73%
Zone Gâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s scores in regards to number of FIRs registered in the region may not show such a poor picture but this region has had its share of trouble in this regard. Our on-ground surveys showed security concerns being amongst the first three negatives in most of the localities especially in Rajouri Garden, Kirti Nagar or Punjabi Bagh. At the same time it is important to keep in mind that with better connectivity to police stations higher percentage of crimes get registered with the police and hence this score should be considered accordingly. Fresh air, open spaces and green surroundings in many of its known residential colonies helps in building a calm and healthy environment around. At the same time the localities and areas falling under or close to the industrial belts do show high degree of pollutants in the atmosphere.
55.10%
Even though the population was happy with the quality of air around pollution levels in this zone are on the higher side and the administration has also taken steps in this regard by limiting the nature of manufacturing facilities that can be run from Zone G. With narrow roads and heavy traffic the region is also prone to a number of road accidents especially high traffic areas in Punjabi Bagh which came out as having some of the most accidents in the recent past in the Delhi NCT region. Questionable efforts of the local administration also came out as a feedback from the Janakpuri area of West Delhi 1. The SWI shows an accurate picture of the region and appropriately shares the views of its residents. The overall rating of Zone F in the SWI is higher than most other regions of NCR and is well balanced with almost all aspects well represented. A moderate score on the SWI, gives a lot of room for improvement for West Delhi- 1, especially keeping in mind the newer population that it is set to hold by the year 2021.
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Air Pollution
Crimes Under IPC
90.00%
Connectivity to Police Stations
13.27% Connectivity to Hospitals
Highlights Crime levels have been relatively higher as compared to zones A, B & C and in line with zone F of Delhi. Residents have raised many concerns over this rising trend. There is a need to develop many more multispecialty hospitals in the region keeping in mind the area and the population the zone covers. www.homemakers.co.in
Interesting Facts The statements show the top responses and their respective percentages
Zone G scores well in terms of connectivity whether to the local markets, malls or the metro stations. Connectivity & Market Places
66.18%
Metro Connectivity
11.76%
Greenery & Open Spaces
22.06%
A balanced population with almost an equal divide between the service and business segment Service
50.68%
Business
49.32%
Zone G had a balanced number when it came to its respondentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; work areas with a little over 50% working less than 8 kms away from their residence. Under 3 kms
28.38%
3 - 8 kms
23.58%
8 - 15 kms
18.34%
More than 15 kms
29.79%
Social Factors to Consider A quick survey undertaken by the Home Makersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; team in the region showed some eye opening facts about the region and should surely be considered while making a decision on whether or not to stay or invest in the region. The above results are part of a sample survey conducted in Zone G in the regions of Paschim Vihar, Kirti Nagar, Tilak Nagar, Rajouri Garden and Punjabi Bagh. The survey equally covered residents of all ages, men & women, working professionals and non-working population, employed people and businessmen. A sample size of over 400 respondents has been put together for this study. The above trends may not cover the entire population of this region but do give an indication to the current scenarios prevailing here.
Safety, cleanliness and the management of roads are issues that need to be worked on. Cleanliness & Drainage/ Sewage
21.62%
Quality of Roads
32.43%
Safety
45.95%
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Proximity Index The chart highlights Zone Gâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s proximity score to various prominent locations, landmarks, connectivity zones of Delhi NCR and nearest amenities within the region. It is important to keep in mind that a critical aspect for development of any region is its location and proximity to all important parts of the city and amenities.
41.86%
Connectivity The table shows representative scores and not the actual proximity to a location. The higher the amenity or location/ zone on the above scale the closer it is estimated to be in the region. The map highlights Zone Gâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s area on the map of the Delhi NCT (National Capital Territory), the prominent junctions and critical transportation points. The number of amenities / infrastructure available in the region in terms of prominent multi-specialty hospitals, hotels, malls and police stations are also mentioned an marked on the proximity scale.
Centre Point | Tilak Nagar Metro
34.5%
Critical Transportation Points
66.7%
Prominent Junctions
33.1%
Amenities & Public Conveniences
Proximity Index
48.57% Distance from work place
68.86% Market Connectivity
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Delhi Zone Map
Reference Grid
ZONE G
Refers to Delhi NCT map Refers to Critical Transportation Points in the zone Refers to Prominent Junctions in the zone Highlights the area covered under Zone G on the map 0 to 100 Refers to proximity level in the zone, with 0 standing for least proximity and 100 for maximum proximity.
Outer Ring Road
ZONE G 90
80
100
70
Ring Road
Tilak Nagar Metro Station
Railway Station ISBT
Kashmiri Gate
60 50 40 30 20
NH 8
Airport
10
Kundli Manesar Palwal Expressway
7
8
Multi-Specialty Hotels Hospitals
Map not to scale
10 Malls
33
Police Stations
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Game Changers What would be the fate of Zone G? Will it be able to out shine the Delhi real estate sector in the near term or will it also go into a phase of limited demand? Looking at the recent developments and the overall decline of the real estate sector in India and especially in Delhi NCR, majority of Zone G has taken a hit in terms of real estate prices. Low demand levels and a recovering economy may not be able to give much impetus to this market in the near term. Some factors that could impact the market and should be kept in mind in case you are investing in this area are;
Key Factors Development of Newer Pockets of Zone G
As per the 2021 Master Plan of Delhi (MPD 2021) FAR levels have been increased to a height of 17.5 meters. This would have a positive impact on available floor space which essentially should add to the supply levels.
Connectivity of the Metro Rail
One of the big positives for Zone G has been its connectivity through quality roads, public conveyances and the metro rail. With the metro connectivity set to enhance in the near term with an interchange station in Janakpuri West, which will also see connectivity to the Botanical Garden and a new station in Mayapuri should positively impact real estate prices in these areas.
Long awaited projects to be delivered
Macro Factors With a High Co-relation to Zone Gâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Growth Gold Prices:
The ROI Index study for Zone G showed a high positive correlation with the gold prices. Traditionally with a financially strong population investment in one asset has lead to a flow of investments into the other asset.
SENSEX:
In line with the above observation strong performance of the Sensex has also lead to a following rise in demand in the near term for the real estate sector.
Low Inventory Levels:
Much like other well developed zones of Delhi NCR Zone G too has had limited inventory levels available in the past few years. Barring a few upcoming regions the zone has limited availability. This trend is set to continue to a large extent in the coming years which should give a steady growth to investors.
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West Delhi 1 has traditionally had plotted colonies and apartment buildings (built by DDA). Over the years these plotted houses have been converted into builder floors. This rising trend in the region should impact both inventory levels and prices. A few prominent developers of NCR will also be delivering on there long awaited luxury projects such as DLF & Parsvnath that should increase transaction levels here in the mid term.
Lack of Commercial Spaces
Zone G has not had many commercial zones in its vicinity with the ones present being quite old and outdated. Lack of quality work opportunities has impacted and should impact the real estate prices in the future as compared to some other emerging micro markets in the national capital region.
The Fast Growing Suburbs
Growth of Zone G is equally dependent on the speed and quality at which the residential development of Gurgaon and Noida takes place. With ample land available in these districts and modern constructions being offered at lesser prices, fast development of social infrastructure in Gurgaon and Noida would challenge the demand trends of Zone G.
Upcoming Areas of Zone G
Locations like Mahavir Enclave 1 or Uttam Nagar that are relatively less expensive as compared to other locations of the zone should see a higher growth trend in the short and medium term. www.homemakers.co.in
The Outlook Zone G’s real estate sector has seen a fall in its prices, almost across all areas, in the last two years the current market sentiment has not changed much. Being a traditionally strong real estate market West Delhi 1 should see a revival over a next few quarters with demand levels back to normalcy. The zone’s outlook may look strong in the mid and long term though it does have its share of ups and downs that are going to have an impact. It is important that the above mentioned ‘Game Changers’ are closely watched to project the demand of Zone G. Over the years a strong economic position with affluent families and proximity to key areas of Delhi have given the edge to West Delhi 1 much like South Delhi. With the real estate landscape of Delhi NCR fast changing with the emergence of new micro markets from the early 2000s it is important to see the development that West Delhi’s market sees over the next decade.
Already burdened with a large population only a limited growth in numbers is expected in this zone as per the 2021 Master Plan. In the short term with a recovering economy and a lackluster demand cycle renting a house would remain a more economical proposition for the end users. Improving the quality of social infrastructure, amenities especially market places and commercial centers will be a key for the longer term keeping in mind the quality of developments in other zones. The zone already has good connectivity with the metro rail, roadways and proximity to the CBD- Connaught Place. The locations which will get metro connectivity in the near term should see a spurt in price levels in the short and mid time horizon.
Live Wire > A sluggish market in the short term
with limited demand and transaction levels. Price levels may further see corrections in the short term and slow speed of growth. > Infrastructural developments
such as the metro rail, new office / commercial spaces, new road connections etc. should show quick reactions in price levels in select locations. > Expectation of normalization of
growth in the medium & long term with a close eye on the economic scenarios of the country. Due to limited inventory levels, lesser transactions, the zone will not receive as much attention from the investor audience as compared to Gurgaon & Noida. > Plotted houses should continue
to give better returns and hold an advantage in the market with the new luxury projects also joining the band wagon.
Luxury projects to be delivered by prominent builders in the mid term should raise the bar of luxury housing in the region and increase demand levels in select pockets Zone G’s real estate should show a stable growth pattern in the mid term with a spurt in the long term keeping in mind the relatively lower price levels as compared to South and North Delhi regions. How will the zone provide a high end living experience to its elite residential population with high end recreational and infrastructure facilities will be a key to look out for. *Any epicenter in context of this report is a location/ micro region with a definitive boundary where all amenities of livelihood are available such as a micro township.
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About Home Makers Home Makers is the real-estate research and services arm of NNA Consultancy Services and aims at helping both end-users and investors make informed decisions pertaining to their housing/ investment requirements. Unlike the current options in the market Home Makers focuses on conducting customized research for its client keeping in line with their needs and the macro real estate environment. Adding to that Home Makers offers the option of research solutions that can be availed for large projects, investment decisions or development strategies. Home Makers â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Regional Reportsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; are an amalgamation of standard real estate and township planning data collated from in-house research and varied sources clubbed with an insight on the social capital of the region. The reports do not only provide you an insight into historic, current and future numeric trends but also a feedback from the residents of the region on the quality of life, availability of amenities and other important aspects impacting life in the region.
The Research Brief At Home Makers we believe that it is imperative to have a holistic approach to research of any kind and that scientific data mining tools should be used to collect and collate data. With this in mind Home Makers has carefully carved its approach for research in the real estate sector which effectively amalgamates both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the industry and its assets.
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Quality Check Mechanism Undertaking such a large study can be a challenge for any organization and error percentages could also be high in case the study is not undertaken in the right manner. In order to minimize on the possibilities of errors throughout the study cycle, check mechanisms have been placed at various steps.
Validating data from authorized governmental & non-governmental sources. A three level check system for all data before it is published. On-ground surveys of a region to understand the gap between planned and real development. Sample checks on price trends and inventory levels from regional brokers and consultants. Sample check on questionnaires filled by residents by making direct calls. Use of standard models and correlation studies to evaluate financial data. The above steps are some of the many checks that have been placed for the accuracy of the information being provided.
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The Process Flow
1
Decoding Administrative Plans
Here the team adequately studies the city/ state master plans in detail and decodes the relevant information such as historic population trends, projected capacity building, planned infrastructure such as roads, markets, petrol pumps, schools, colleges, commercial spaces, hospitals etc. and any other major planned development.
2
Phase wise study of the region
3
Conducting a specific online/ on-ground research on the region
In order to understand the quality of infrastructure/ amenities available in the region the team systematically divides the region into sub parts for implementing a phased study of the whole region. Essentially this would mean that in a region has 100 sectors, ten critical sectors might be studied in the first phase of the study, another ten in the second phase and so on. This would essentially mean that post reaching the third or fourth phase of Home Makerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s study of a given region there may be a few developments that change the overall view of the region as our exposure to the region increases.
Here the team goes on ground to interact with the residents of the region (specific pockets) and understand their views on the region, its quality of life, infrastructure, connectivity, easy availability of amenities, work opportunities, safety etc. It is through this study that one is able to understand the actual delivery of the plan that had been proposed by the administration. A single phase for a region being researched on would have a sample size of 300 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 500 respondents.
4
Studying the Planned Projects / Dwelling Units in the region A thorough check from both online and on-ground sources is conducted to monitor the new/upcoming residential and infrastructure projects in the region etc.
5
Using Home Makers models
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Collation & Representation
The team is undertaking pilots and developing standard quantitative & qualitative, SMART models, for estimating price projections, social development and safety wellness trends. Each region is plotted on these indexes so that a comparative ranking process can be implemented. This enables Home Makers to have an apple to apple comparison between two regions or zones of a territory.
Finally all the above study is collated and presented in front of the audience in an easy to understand and user friendly manner for them to make their own inferences of a given region. The use of info-graphics, visuals and quantifiable data are some of the key ingredients of a Home Makers report that helps you take with you a clear picture of a region.
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Glossary Parameters
Sources
Average Distances between two locations
Google Maps
Historical Price Trends
www.magicbricks.com, www.99acres.com have been referred for both new bookings and resale cases.
Current Price Trends
www.magicbricks.com, www.allcheckdeals.com have been referred for new booking rates and sample checked for prevailing prices on ground.
Existing and Estimated Population Trends
Census of India 2011, Delhi NCR MPD 2021
No. of Metro Stations, Sub Stations
Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) data, on ground visits and google maps.
No. of Metro Stations planned after Phase 3 DMRC phase 3. Hospitals
On ground visits and google maps.
Fire Stations
Google maps and on ground visits.
Malls
On ground visits, Expedia; Ixigo and google maps.
Prominent Marketplace
On ground visits, google maps.
Police Stations
Delhi Police Data, State Government data for police and google maps
Avg Water Table
NCR Planning Board-Water report (Regional Plan 2021).
Crime Rate
Government records for Crime in India 2012.
No. of Hotels
On ground visits, Expedia, Cleartrip and google maps data.
Cinemas
On ground visits and google maps.
Avg Air Pollution
Air Pollution in India (aqicn.org/map/india/delhi) - Ambient Air Quality (PM2.5 levels have been referred to)
Sports Complex
On ground visits and google maps.
Proposed area used for commercial spaces MPD 2021 Zonal Master Plans, 2021 Master plan and NCR Master Plans.
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Parameters
Sources
Prominent Flyovers
On ground visits, google maps and report â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Skyscrapers in the city.
No. of Schools
Directorate Of Education and Central Board for Secondary Education data.
No. of Colleges
Government Data, on-ground visits and google maps.
Distances & Connectivity
Sample Survey of Home Makers.
Quality of Basic Amenities
Sample Survey of Home Makers.
Sense of safety & wellness
Sample Survey of Home Makers.
The following tools and models have been utilized while preparing the inferences shared in this report Indexes
Coverage
ROI Index
Industrial IIP numbers, VIX, SENSEX trends, State GDP, Inflation, REPO rates, Gold rates etc. have been considered while formulating the index.
Happiness Quotient
Sample Survey of Home Makers, Infrastructure development numbers, proximity and quality of amenities have been considered
Safety & Wellness
Sample survey of Home Makers, government data and weighted average across these parameters have been considered.
Proximity Index
On ground research, google maps for connectivity and weighted average of these parameters have been considered.
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The Report This is a periodic report prepared for the first half of the year 2014 specifically for the region of Zone G (West Delhi 1). Readers should use the information in this report for guidance purposes only and should conduct their own study before taking a decision in regards to this market. NNA Consultancy Services does not take responsibility of the accuracy of the data in the report and that which has been collated from third party sources.
Disclaimers The market data and information contained herein (â&#x20AC;&#x153;Informationâ&#x20AC;?) is the product or service of multiple parties that may or may not be affiliated to NNA Consultancy Services Pvt. Ltd. (NCS). None of the Information represents the opinion of, counsel from, recommendation or endorsement by NCS, or its Affiliates, Officers, Employees or Agents. The properties/ projects that are indicated/ mentioned herein above have been selected randomly for the purpose of this report only and that such mention/indication of the same does not, in anyway whatsoever indicate any preference or promotion by NCS of the same. NCS does not intend to suggest or promote any specific area, builder, developer or construction company that may have been mentioned / indicated in this report. You may not use the Information for any unlawful purpose or any purpose not expressly permitted hereby. Reproduction of the Information in any form is prohibited. Users are requested to use the Information at their sole risk. NCS or its Affiliates, Officers, Employees or Agents shall not be liable and expressly disclaim liability for any error or omission in the content of the Information, or for any actions taken by any one directly or indirectly, in reliance thereon. The Information is not guaranteed to be error-free, or to be relied upon for investment purposes, and NCS or its Affiliates, Officers, Employees or Agents make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, truth, adequacy, timeliness or completeness, fitness for purpose, title, non infringement of third party rights or continued availability of the Information.
No Warranty In no event shall NCS or its Affiliates, officers, employees or agents be liable for loss or damage of any kind whatsoever (including, without limitation, any special, consequential, incidental or indirect damages, or damages for loss of profits, business interruption, and any and all forms of loss or damage) to any one under any circumstances. All queries can be directed towards Divyanshu Nagpal Director, NNA Consultancy Services Pvt. Ltd M: +91 - 9818300327 E: divyanshunagpal@nnaindia.com
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