Role of innovative and smart solutions in future urban energy systems Marko Aunedi & Goran Strbac Imperial College London 28 November 2017
Background • Context: • Decarbonisation of energy supply (RES, electrification of heat and transport) • Increased requirements for flexibility to enable cost-effective integration of low-carbon energy • Innovation and cost reduction in smart flexible technologies (e.g. energy storage)
• Key research topics: • Impact of decarbonisation on urban energy infrastructure • Use of innovative and smart technologies in delivering more cost-efficient decarbonisation • Balancing local and national energy objectives • Implications of local sources on resilience of energy supply in cities
2
Local vs. national benefits of flexibility – whole-system paradigm •
Whole-system benefits of flexibility manifested across: • Time: from years ahead (planning) to secondsahead (real-time operation) • Space: from local to national & international infrastructure
•
• •
System value of flexibility could be significant:
Split benefits occur across various segments of power system Transmission- or distribution-centric approaches miss out on part of the value
• £8bn/yr in 2030 (NIC) • £17-40bn NPV by 2050 (BEIS)
National level services
Local level services
3
Relevant projects • Low Carbon London (LCNF innovation, £28.3m, 2011-2014) • Cutting-edge trials and demonstrations of innovative smart solutions using London’s network as test bed • First UK dynamic Time-of-Use tariff trial • Large-scale trials for EVs, heat pumps and industrial and commercial DSR • Key question: how to operate and design future smart urban distribution networks?
• Sharing Cities (Horizon 2020, ongoing) • Taking advantage of digital technologies in cities to improve urban mobility, increase energy efficiency of buildings and reduce carbon emissions • Focus on 3 strategic locations: London, Lisbon and Milan
4
LCL EV trials: characterising residential and commercial EV charging demand Residential
Charging power (kW)
0.4
0.38
Weekday
Weekend
Total
Thursday
Saturday
Sunday
6
12 Hour
0.33 0.30
0.3
0.2
0.1
0 0
18
Commercial 1-phase 0.3
Commercial 3-phase
Weekday
Weekend
Total
Tuesday
Saturday
Sunday
Weekday Tuesday Sunday
3
0.24
0.2
0.18 0.15
Weekend Friday
Total Saturday 2.37
Charging power (kW)
Charging power (kW)
0.25
24
0.13
0.1 0.05
2
1.99
1.81
1.48 1
0.03 0
0 0
6
12 Hour
18
24
0
6
12 Hour
18
24
5
Vehicle usage patterns and potential for smart charging •
Average trip distance: ~6.5 km •
• •
95% of trips were below 25 km for residential and below 20 km for commercial users
User mostly charged their batteries to the full Potential for applying innovative charging schemes (incl. V2G) to support local grid and wider system
100
80
EV demand Non-‐controlled Controlled Baseline
60
Total demand (kW)
End SoC (%)
40
40
Residential EVs 20
30
40.4
30.0
20
10
0
0 0
20
40
60 Start SoC (%)
80
100
0
6
12 Hour
18
24
6
Electrification of London taxies and buses: Impact on the London electricity infrastructure
7
First UK dynamic Time of Use tariff trial
High price: 67.20 pence/kWh Base price: 11.76 pence/kWh Low price: 3.99 pence/kWh dToU: 922 households non-dToU: 3,437 households
8
LCL Dynamic Time of Use tariff trial findings Demand-supply balancing challenge: • Supply following (SF) trials: increasing or decreasing demand at various times of day to reflect variability of renewable generation.
Degradation in asset utilisation challenge • Constraint management (CM) trials: reducing peak loads – to defer or reduce distribution network reinforcement costs.
Full year mean Demand Response by settlement block
Potential conflict between network and system management 9
Industrial and commercial DSR trials
Hotel Demand Response Event 160 Data logger readings Baseline fit
140
120
Chiller load (kW)
100
80
60
40
20
0 10am
11am
12pm
1pm
2pm
3pm
4pm
Time of day
10
Impact of weather conditions on peak demand contribution from HPs E.g. average temperature of -4⁰C and a penetration level of 20% of household owning heat pumps increases peak daily load by 72% above baseline
Source: LCL Report B4*
*M. Bilton, N. E. Chike, M. Woolf, P. Djapic, M. Wilcox, G. Strbac, “Impact of low voltage – connected low carbon technologies on network utilisation”, Report B4 for the “Low Carbon London” LCNF project: Imperial College London, 2014.
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Impact of energy efficiency on daily profiles
500KVA
Winter weekday demand profiles for all interven5ons Scenario Cold efficiency Wet efficiency CFL light efficiency LED light efficiency Efficiency total
Energy reduction 5.5% 1.9% 4.8% 3.8% 16.0%
Peak reduction 2.9% 1.9% 8.6% 6.0% 18.8%
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Benefits of combined mitigation measures in London distribution grid • Measures include: • • • • •
Smart EV charging Smart HP operation I&C DSR dToU tariffs Energy Efficiency
• Potential for massive savings over the next decades
13
Resilience of urban energy supply: Can you trust smart when it comes to security? Redundancy & robustness Same Risk
D+ΔD
~
DSR
D+ΔD
• Comprehensive risk assessment of smart solutions • Conflicts between local and national objectives if the same smart asset provides reliability both locally and nationally • Use of local resources to provide flexibility and resilience: storage, DSR, CHPs, backup generators, microgrids...
independent sites required
20
overcontracting required
15
10 0.9
5
0.99 0
0.999 0
5
10
15
20
desired response (contract units)
14
Non-‐ smart EVs HPs dToU I&C DSR
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Fully smart
EV HP dToU I&C DSR
Bal. + Freq.
I&C DSR
Balancing
100%
50%
dToU
25%
75%
HP
50%
EV
25%
Fully smart
Smart/FR
80
Smart
90
Smart/FR
100
Smart
110
Bal. + Freq.
Balancing
100%
50%
25%
75%
50%
25%
Smart/FR
Smart
Smart/FR
Smart
Avoided emissions through DSR (g/kWh)
Bal. + Freq.
Balancing
100%
50%
25%
75%
50%
25%
Smart/FR
Smart
Smart/FR
Smart
System average CO2 emissions (g/kWh)
2030 GW 120
Avoided emissions through DSR (g/kWh)
Bal. + Freq.
I&C DSR
Balancing
100%
dToU
50%
25%
75%
HPs
50%
25%
Smart/FR
EVs
Smart
Non-‐ smart
Smart/FR
Smart
System average CO2 emissions (g/kWh)
2050 HR
Average system emissions and carbon benefits of smart demand 200
150
100 50 0
Fully smart
200
150
100 50 0
Fully smart
15
Impact of smart heat-electricity coupling on low-carbon heat technologies • Decoupled: • Low uptake of DH schemes, hybrid HPs dominant • Higher capacity of firm but more costly low-carbon generation (nuclear and CCS)
• Integrated: • Higher uptake of DH schemes in higher density (urban) areas • Higher volume of variable RES (wind and PV) and CHP
16
Future challenges and opportunities
• Opportunities for innovation in deriving smart energy roadmaps for cities • Understanding energy infrastructure resilience and security of supply of cities • Need for whole system approach for assessing alternative pathways • Capturing synergies and conflicts between local and national objectives 17
Role of innovative and smart solutions in future urban energy systems Marko Aunedi & Goran Strbac Imperial College London 28 November 2017