COVID-19 Business Impact Survey August 2020
Published by The South West Research Company Ltd October 2020
Sample Summary •
This report contains a summary of the findings from the COVID-19 Business Impact Survey for the month of August 2020 undertaken by The South West Research Company Ltd. during September 2020.
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This months survey has a sample of 216 regional businesses, representing a minimum sample of approximately 370 businesses when self-catering agency properties are also considered..
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68% of businesses responding to the survey were accommodation providers, 12% were a visitor/leisure attraction and 9% a food and drink business. 3% were a self catering agency and 1% in each case were a retail business, a sports or activities-based business or a tourist information centre. 5% categorised themselves as an 'other' business type.
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Half of the accommodation businesses were serviced accommodation providers and 45% were self catering businesses (31% and 14% multiple and single unit operators respectively). 3% were a holiday park and 1% a caravan/camping site. 2% categorised themselves as an 'other' accommodation type.
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67% of businesses responding to the survey were based in Devon. 12% were based in Cornwall, 8% in Somerset and 6% in Dorset. 3% were based in Gloucestershire, 2% in Wiltshire and 1% in Bath & North East Somerset.
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14% of businesses said their business was closed for the whole of August as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, 9% had been closed for part of the month whilst 77% were open for the whole month.
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91% of businesses said they had now re-opened, 4% hadn’t re-opened but planned to in the near future and 5% still had no plans to re-open.
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Whilst the survey sample is very much biased towards Devon similar levels of impact were evident across the remainder of the sample which has been applied to calculate the regional figure.
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National tourism survey data, local areas survey data and Cambridge Model data from 2018 has been used to model the outputs in this report.
Sample Summary • This report replaces the usual monthly How’s Business survey and will continue to do so whilst the virus continues to impact business. Our thanks again go to all businesses that have taken part in the survey this month and to those organisations that have assisted us with the promotion of the survey. It’s very much appreciated. We send everyone our best wishes at this very difficult time and the best of luck for the challenging months ahead. • The content of this document is researched, verified and provided exclusively by the South West Research Company Ltd. and is for general use only and is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely. The South West Research Company do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of, or reliance on the information.
Key results – Economic Impacts Regional tourism turnover lost due to COVID-19 £1,400
£1,200
£1,200
£994
£1,000
£956
£800
£661
£600
£462
£427
£400 £200
£60
£0 February
March
April
May
June
July
August
Turnover lost (£mn)
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To the end of August it is estimated that approximately £4.8 billion of anticipated tourism business turnover has been lost in the South West region due to COVID-19 since February.
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24% of turnover was lost in August (£427 mn), 53% of July turnover (£661 mn), 96% of June turnover (£956 mn), 99% of May turnover (£994 mn), 98% of April turnover (£1.2 bn), 72% of March turnover (£462 mn) and 8% of February turnover (£60 mn).
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In August it is estimated that, as a result of the lost tourism spend, approximately £81 million that would have been spent in the supply chain by tourism related businesses on the purchase of local goods and services is unlikely to have occurred. However, tourism businesses will be stuck with some overheads that they still have to cover.
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14% of businesses were closed during August as a result of COVID-19 and 41% of those still open to some degree were operating at decreased turnover levels compared to August 2019. The overall change in turnover for all businesses trading was -12% compared to August 2019.
Key results – Economic Impacts Regional value of retained bookings by period – May, June, July & August surveys estimates £152,000,000
Oct - Dec value of bookings still in diary (staying visitors) AUGUST ESTIMATES Oct - Dec value of bookings still in diary (staying visitors) JULY ESTIMATES
£102,000,000
£273,000,000 £182,000,000
£108,000,000
Oct - Dec value of bookings still in diary (staying visitors) JUNE ESTIMATES
£96,000,000
Oct - Dec value of bookings still in diary (staying visitors) MAY ESTIMATES
£194,000,000 £172,000,000
£172,000,000
Sept value of bookings still in diary (staying visitors) AUGUST ESTIMATES £0
Accommodation spend
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£307,000,000
£500,000,000
£1,000,000,000
Other sectors spend
At the time of completing the survey an estimated £479 millions worth of staying visitor bookings for September were held by accommodation businesses (approximately 93% of the anticipated staying visitor value in the region during this period) and £425 million for the October to December period (approximately 46% of the anticipated staying visitor value in the region during this period). The breakdown of how this spend would be likely to have occurred in the accommodation and other tourism sectors (retail, food and drink, attractions/entertainment and transport) is shown in the chart above by period and compared with the same results for the May, June and July surveys where applicable.
Key results – Economic Impacts •
36% stated that their bookings for September were lower than expected with the estimated overall actual decrease calculated at -3%.
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It is estimated that as a result of the retained tourism spend during September approximately £138 million will have been spent in the supply chain by tourism related businesses on the purchase of local goods and services and £122 million during October to December.
Key results – Employment Impacts •
48% of businesses responding to the survey didn’t have any staff. The current employment impacts of those with staff are shown in the chart below.
Impacts on those employed 0%
10%
My staff have worked throughout the lockdown
20%
30%
7%
30%
All of my staff are now back to work Some of my staff are back to work, some remain furloughed
23% 3%
All of my staff are still furloughed
13%
Some of my staff are on reduced working hours I have had to lay off some of my staff
11%
I have/will be hiring additional seasonal staff I have/will be hiring additional permanent staff Don't know/unsure
8% 3% 2%
% of businesses •
30% of businesses said all of their staff were back to work and 23% that some of their staff were back to work but some remained furloughed. 13% said some of their staff were on reduced working hours and 11% that they had laid off some of their staff. 3% said all of their staff were still furloughed. 7% said their staff had worked throughout the lockdown period.
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8% of all businesses said they would be hiring additional seasonal staff now their business had re-opened and 3% that they would be hiring additional permanent staff.
Key results – Feedback on reopening (Sample of re-opened businesses) •
91% of businesses said they had now re-opened, 4% hadn’t re-opened but planned to in the near future and 5% still had no plans to re-open. A selection of comments from businesses who had re-opened are shown below. Opening has been OK, if a bit strange for example serving breakfast with a mask etc. Cleaning has been more labour intensive. No problems with visitors at all. Got used to using Virusclean on everything that has high touch points.
The level of business for this year is now above last year for this month and the remainder of the year and the number of advance bookings for 2021 is up on the same point in 2019. Most aspects of the business and its operations are functioning normally.
We opened again on 4th July with both July and August seeing a 40-45% decrease in visitor numbers.
The re-opening went very well, we have not had any negative issues from any guests only positive, they were happy to comply with all our requests, temp/checks info given freely for contacting them etc.
September very busy with older couples now coming out after months of lockdown. Unfortunately, the increasing Covid numbers are now starting to frighten people off from their October holiday so they are beginning to cancel.
We have found it easy to stay open as most of our attraction is a historic site and therefore outside and easy to distance.
It is taking much longer to clean and is unpleasant wearing PPE all day on 4 change over days. Majority of our guests are social distancing but complain some do not while they are out and have come out of eateries that are not wearing masks and gloves. In the main are happier than perhaps other years!
No problems. Everyone is provided with Health and Safety advice before they arrive and have followed the rules as set.
August was no different in numbers staying because we are small and are always full, however the phone was ringing constantly and it would have been fantastic to have been able to take those extra bookings. September is busier towards the end, more than usual but the bookings do slow down considerably from 3rd October.
Key results – The Future Impacts on the future of tourism businesses 31% 29% 27%
29%29%
32% 26% 21%
18%
16% 11%
10%
34% 30% 26%
8%
10%
13% 11%
9%
15% 12%
14%
3% May
June
July
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
August
Without further/better assistance my business will not survive. The current assistance being offered will help but the future of my business is still doubtful. My business may manage to survive but only by cutting back. The current levels of assistance being offered should be enough to get my business through this. My business is currently strong enough to survive without any assistance. Don't know/unsure •
35% of businesses were doubtful about surviving the coming months (including 14% who said without further/better assistance their business will not survive) compared with 35%, 43% and 40% of businesses saying the same during the July, June and May surveys respectively.
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41% of businesses were confident of surviving the coming months (43% July, 39% June and 21% May) and 32% felt making cut backs would be their only way to survive (34%, 31% and 29% during the July, June and May surveys respectively).
Key results – Sample of other comments on impacts
Stress and worry as owners on whether there will be local lockdowns or curfews and whether we will make enough money to pay employees, suppliers and survive.
We have had a reasonable summer season but lost March, April, May and June. The season now slows and is extremely quiet from November to March. We will have a very difficult time surviving the long winter and just hope that we can be open from Easter next year for a full season.
Apart from the initial lockdown period my business has been booked solid and is so into and through November. So Covid has actually had a positive effect on bookings as people refrain from going abroad at this time.
It is giving us more work because of the deep cleaning we are having to do but it is necessary to keep our guests and ourselves safe.
While visitor satisfaction is extremely high reflecting the high standards that have been put into effect to ensure that everyone is kept safe while visiting the site, changing government guidelines and the continuing hysterical interpretation of COVID information by ill-informed 'journalists' is likely to affect the confidence of potential visitors when considering visiting places.
We have been badly hit by the 6 person cap. Bookings are being cancelled as our property sleeps up to 12 and groups cannot reduce their numbers to fit the criteria. The cap is having an impact on future bookings too. The coming months look bleak.
Many older guests desperately in need of a holiday are still very frightened of Covid and are reluctant to commit to coming especially when Government advice and measures seem to change every few days.
Forward bookings are slow for October half term and nothing for Xmas as yet! Next year unknown.
We have attracted several customers who would have been going abroad but for Covid and many have been enlightened by what a staycation can offer. Hopefully this may improve visitor numbers in the future...
The South West Research Company Ltd. – About Us Business partners Paul Haydon and Diane Goffey have gathered over thirty years research experience in the tourism industry and offer an extensive knowledge of tourism and research and statistics built up over many years with an established network of contacts in the industry. Based in the South West, we are proud to be part of and contribute to one of the major industries in our region. This report is not funded or sponsored and is provided by us for the benefit of those working in the regions’ tourism industry. We offer a full range of research services tailored specifically to meet our clients needs and available budgets. For further information on the services we offer or to register for the How’s Business survey please contact info@tswrc.co.uk
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