F EAT U R ES
LNG outlook for 2020 After a record year in 2019, how will the global LNG market develop in 2020? In the run-up to the release of IGU’s latest World LNG Report, we give a brief overview of where new capacity is coming from and likely to go. By Mark Blacklock IGU’s 2020 World LNG Report will be
Osaka Gas, announced the start of
FLNG Satu (2017), Cameroon FLNG
published in late April/early May and,
commercial operations for Train 2 in
(2018), Prelude and Tango (both 2019).
while the details are embargoed until
January and Train 3 will follow. Cameron
then, it will show that 2019 was a
LNG (Sempra LNG, Total, Mitsui and
Corporation’s (EWC) delayed Sengkang
record year for global trade. IGU’s
Mitsubishi/NYK) is starting up Train 3.
LNG project is now scheduled for 2020
World LNG Report Task Force working
And Elba Island LNG, owned by Kinder
start-up bringing the total increase
with consultants Rystad Energy
Morgan and EIG Global Energy
to 21.33 mt.
prepared the report, which is
Partners, is starting up Trains 4-10.
sponsored by Shell and KOGAS.
Russia is in the number two
In Indonesia, Energy World
Demand
position with the start-up of Gazprom’s
As the projects inaugurated in 2019
Supply
Portovaya LNG and Train 4 of Yamal
ramp up to full capacity and are joined
Most of this year’s new supply capacity
LNG (Novatek, Total, CNPC and the
by the 2020 crop, the big question
is coming from the USA. Freeport LNG,
Silk Road Fund), followed by Malaysia
is what will happen in the second
whose limited partnership interests are
with Petronas FLNG Dua. This will be
biggest market for LNG, China. The
ultimately held by Michael Smith,
the world’s fifth floating liquefaction
growth of the country’s LNG imports
Global Infrastructure Partners and
project to enter service after Petronas
was already set to be slowed by the start of pipeline imports from Russia and now there is the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Chinese economy. Hong Kong’s start of LNG imports, expected at the end of the year, will make little difference and LNG that would have flowed to China will need to find other markets. While the pace of nuclear power plant restarts in Japan, the world’s biggest LNG market, is uncertain (there were none last year) there certainly isn’t any growth prospect and new nuclear capacity in Korea is impacting LNG demand there. The swing markets
Petronas FLNG Dua sailed from the Samsung Heavy Industries yard in Gohyeon Geoje, Korea in February. Operations will start later this year.
48 LNG outlook for 2020
are in Europe where there is ample regasification and pipeline capacity
