GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS
EARLY POLL REVEALS SOUR ELECTORATE AND HEADWINDS FOR INCUMBENTS With less than a year away until the Midterm elections, the results of a late October Marquette University Law School poll reveal a sour electorate and troubling political headwinds mounting for statewide incumbents facing reelection in the coming year. Midterm elections historically have not been favorable for the Presidential party in power (presently controlled by Democrats) and there are signs that next year’s election could be particularly challenging for certain statewide incumbents in Wisconsin. For starters, Wisconsin Democrats are certain to feel the effects of President Joe Biden’s low job approval rating which has plummeted by double digits in the latest survey with a 43 percent approval rating, while 53 percent disapprove. These figures will surely impact federal congressional races where many political experts on both sides are already conceding that Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives are likely to lose control of the chamber. In Wisconsin, all eight house seats are up for election (currently 5 GOP and 3 DEM), but only one of them is seen as competitive and having national implications. The 3rd district in western Wisconsin is being vacated by incumbent Democrat Ron Kind who announced that he is not running for reelection. Republicans are hoping to pick up this open seat, while Democrats will have a primary 30 | DECEMBER 2021 |
wisconsin INDEPENDENT AGENT
election in August 2022 to choose their nominee. U.S. Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) is also facing a tough statewide re-election if he decides to run again, but he has yet to formally announce his plans as of this writing. Many expect Johnson to ultimately run again and he could face some strong political headwinds next year if he does decide to run. In the most recent Marquette survey, only 38 percent said they would vote for Johnson, while 52 percent said they’d support someone else. However, Johnson could benefit from the Democrats’ low popularity regardless of which candidate emerges from a 12-way primary contest. Then there is the hotly contested race for Wisconsin Governor. Democrat incumbent Tony Evers announced earlier in the year that he is running for re-election for another four-year term. The latest Marquette poll results suggest that Evers will be fighting for his political life as he faces re-election and an unhappy electorate. A year out can seem like an eternity in politics and a lot can happen, but as of right now Evers is facing a 40 percent re-elect compared with 53 percent of those in the poll who say they would vote for someone else. If these numbers hold, it will be a very difficult environment for Gov. Evers who is likely to face former Republican Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch in the general election.
