IISS: Facts, analysis, influence by International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

The International Institute for Strategic Studies International in composition, perspective and reach We generate facts, produce analysis and exert influence On issues of war, power and rules, For governments, the private sector and experts

Formed: 2015 (as separate service) Personnel: 120,000+*

nationalities work in IISS offices in four regions,

IISS South Asia Programme Role

• our perspective – IISS regional research programmes provide first-class analysis on the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, South and Southeast Asia, Europe, Russia and Eurasia, North America,

PLA Army

Southern Theatre Command

PLA Navy

* = estimated; ** = unconfirmed; (-) = part of unit

PLA Air Force

‘Legacy’ refers to systems put into service by China before 1990; ‘Modern’ refers to systems put into service by China after 1990

Artillery Regiment, 4th Infantry Division

K Y R G Y Z S T A N

that our approach is dispassionate; • our reach – IISS publications are available in over 90 countries, with coverage of our work regularly appearing in national and international media outlets around the globe. Governments and companies in all regions regularly seek out IISS facts, analysis and advice.

Urban areas

22nd Regiment,

Artillery Regiment,

11th Infantry Division HQ Urumqi

Xinjiang Artillery Brigade

Xinjiang Air Defence Brigade

Artillery Regiment, 11th Infantry Division

110th Aviation Brigade

646 Missile Brigade

62nd Combine Arms Brigad

GANSU

18th SAM Brigade

Artillery Regiment, 6th Infantry Division

Armoured Regiment, 11th Infantry Division

Test and Training Base (Malan) 111th Aviation Brigade

109th Aviation Brigade

32nd Regiment, 11th Infantry Division

Armoured Regiment, 4th Infantry Division

4th Infantry Division HQ

Xinjiang Army Air Defence Regiment, Aviation Brigade 11th Infantry Division 24th Regiment, 2nd SAM Brigade 8th Infantry Division

31st Regiment, 11th Infantry Division

8th Infantry Division 8th Infantry Division Domestic Politics of ASEAN States and Foreign Policy

11th Regiment, 4th Infantry Division

8th Infantry Air Defence Regiment, Armoured Regiment, Division HQ 8th Infantry Division 8th Infantry Division

Cyber Capabilities and Future Conflict

Air Defence Regiment, 4th Infantry Division

Modernisation features  On formation, the CCG was under the co Administration, but moved to People’s Arm  The CCG has introduced into service large further afield and in higher sea states. This cutters based on PLAN frigate and corvette

Urumqi region IISS–Asia

Urumqi

12th Regiment, 4th Infantry Division

XINJIANG

18th Regiment, 6th Infantry Division

Air Defence Regiment 6th Infantry Division Armoured Regiment, 6th Infantry Division

12th Arm

W E S T E R N T H E AT R E C O M M A N D 6th Infantry Division HQ Xinjiang Special Operations Brigade

17th Regiment, 6th Infantry Division

from each of these areas to ensure that regional international analyses and assure our audiences

IISS Middle East Programme

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

Glossary: AAV: amphibious assault vehicle; AEW&C: airborne early-warning and control; ICBM: intercontinental ballistic missile; IFV: infantry fighting vehicle; IRBM: intermediate-range ballistic missile; LACM: land-attack cruise missile; MBT: main battle tank; MIRV: multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle; MRBM: medium-range ballistic missile; R&D: research and development; SRBM: short-range ballistic missile; SSBN: nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarine

Role The CCG is a maritime law-enforcement agenc considers to be its sovereign territory.

IISS–Middle East

Western Theatre Command

PLA Rocket Force

 Patrol boats: 200*

IISS Manama Dialogue

Theatre Command Headquarters Cities

IISS–NESA South Asia Security Conference

HQ Group Army Headquarters Geo-economics, Geopolitics and Strategy

LEGEND

Africa and Latin America. We engage experts perspectives are incorporated into our

Major assets  Patrol ships: 87*

 Composed of an Aerospace Systems Department and a Cyber (or Network) Systems Department. At the very least segments of 3PLA (responsible for cyber espionage) and 4PLA (responsible for cyber attack) have likely been consolidated into the SSF, as have other units responsible for space, cyber and EW.  The SSF’s tasks may include R&D and testing of certain high-technology weapons systems, and the organisation is possibly linked to a number of research institutes previously under the General Staff Department.  Responsibilities for corporate and industrial espionage have likely been moved to the Ministry of State Security.

IISS – Berlin Desk

IISS–Americas

120

Thematic  Patrolprogrammes craft: 136*

The SSF falls under the direct control of the CMC, though it is integrated into the other four service branches in order to optimally support joint operations and conduct informationised warfare. Little is publicly known about the organisation, but it is primarily responsible for cyber warfare and cyber defence, electronic warfare (EW) and military space operations.

150

Regional programmes

Personnel: 145,000* (due to scope of responsibilities across all domains and theatre commands)

IISS – Arundel House Modernisation features

and we draw additional expertise from a membership based in all continents;

maritime paramilitary forces)

Formed: 2015

Modernisation features  The PLARF is expanding in size, with several new missile brigades in the process of formation.  Most of the existing missile types in service appear to be in the process of being replaced by upgraded or new missiles. These reportedly include designs with the capability to carry multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles, or hypersonic glide vehicles.  The DF-21D medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile is now complemented by a variant of the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy longer-range DF-26.

Northern Theatre Command

• our composition – 143 IISS staff of 19 different

CHINA COAST GUARD (CCG) (中国

US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs

Eastern Theatre Command

private sector and experts across the globe to

Key events Formed: 2013 (merger of several

PLA STRATEGIC SUPPORT FORCE (SSF)

Role In 2015, the existing Second Artillery Force was elevated to full service level within the PLA and renamed the PLA Rocket Force. It continues to control the PLA’s land-based nuclear and conventional ballisticand cruise-missile arsenals, as well as the PLA’s nuclear warheads. Unlike the other services, Rocket Force units are not directly assigned to the new theatre commands.

Central Theatre Command

assess risk and advance the strategic agenda;

IISS offices

Conflict, Security and(中国人民解放军战略支援部队) Development

IISS Japan Chair

Major assets  Nuclear ICBM launchers: 70*  Nuclear/dual-capable IRBM/MRBM launchers: 110*  Conventional SRBM/MRBM launchers: 270*

The IISS operates globally. We are international in: • our partners – we work with governments, the

Defence and Military Analysis

Mongolia

PLA ARMY (PLAA) (中国人民解放军陆军) Formed: 2015 (as separate service) Personnel: 975,000* Major assets (to nearest 50)  Tanks and assault guns: 6,850*  Infantry vehicles: 9,250*  Guns/howitzers: 3,350*  Multiple-rocket launchers: 1,550*  Helicopters: 1,000

Afghanistan Real-terms defence spending (official budget) Pakistan

Armoured fighting vehicle fleet, 2018

Real-terms total military expenditure (estimate includes central and local defence budget, foreign weapons purchases, defence R&D spending and the central People’s Armed Police budget)

200 175

Modern: 7,750

Legacy: 8,350

Role The PLAA remains primarily focused on territorial defence, with a strong contingency amphibious capability retained opposite Taiwan. Modernisation features  The army’s satisfaction with the results of a decade of trans-regional exercises has allowed it to reduce its size, with five of the previous 18 group armies disbanded, and the remainder reorganised on a common template around new combined-arms brigades.  Modern equipment, such as the ZTZ-99 main battle tank and the ZBD-04 and ZBL-08 families of infantry fighting vehicles, continues to enter service, but the army lags behind the air force and navy in this regard and is still reliant on a substantial proportion of older or obsolete types.

125

Bhutan

100

Nepal

75 50 25 0 2008

2009

2010

2011

India 2012

2013

2014

Laos 2015

2016

2017 2018 Myanmar

 China’s official defence spending has more than doubled since 2008, growing from US$64.3bn to US$134.7bn, when measured in 2010 US dollars. Thailand  This strong growth has supported China’s military modernisation, as it is estimated that one-third of the official budget is dedicated to procurement,Bangladesh R&D and maintenance.  As a result, this segment of the Chinese defence budget would amount to US$44.9bn in real terms in 2018. 54th Combined Arms Brigade

Sri Lanka TIBET Destroyers and frigates, 2018

Tibet Special Operations Brigade

Singapore 6th SAM Brigade

Personnel: 250,000* Major assets  Principal surface combatants: 87

N E P A L Modern: 67

Legacy: 19

China

150

PLA NAVY (PLAN) (中国人民解放军海军) Formed: 1949

56th Combined Arms Brigade

CHINA: REAL-TERMS DEFENCE SPENDING (CONSTANT 2010 US$BN)

Constant 2010 US$bn

For 60 years, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has helped to shape the strategic agenda for governments, businesses, the media and experts across the world.

PLA ROCKET FORCE (PLARF) (中国人民解放军火箭军)

Vietnam

Cambodia 55th Combined Arms Brigade Lhasa

Tibet Air Defence Brigade

Brunei

Malaysia

Tibet Army Aviation Brigade

52nd Co Arms B

Tibet Artillery Brigade 53rd Combined Arms Brigade

In I N D

国海警局)

China’s military modernisation has significantly increased pace under President Xi Jinping. The overall aim of changes announced in 2013 at the Third Plenum of the 18th Party Central Committee was to restructure the armed forces appropriate to the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) role, and to the requirements of modern warfare. Since 2015, the PLA’s power-projection capacity has visibly developed. In 2017, it formally opened a military base in Djibouti, and notwithstanding Xi’s 2015 promise to then-president Obama not to militarise the locations it occupies in the South China Sea, China has continued to fortify features in the Spratly Islands with weapons and C4ISR capabilities. The 2015 defence white paper emphasised that the PLA should be strengthened and modernised as a security guarantee for China’s ‘peaceful development’; there was emphasis also on the Communist Party’s leadership of the armed forces. Land would no longer outweigh the sea, and a military doctrine of active defence would guide the PLA’s capabilities towards fighting local wars in ‘informationized conditions’, pushing the arena of potential conflict away from China’s shores. In 2015, the PLA Army became a separate service branch, while the Second Artillery became the PLA Rocket Force, again a new service branch. Lastly, Beijing created the Strategic Support Force (SSF) which, though not itself a full service branch, is responsible for the PLA’s cyber-, space- and electronic-warfare capabilities. In 2016 China announced specific changes as part of the reforms, creating five theatre commands from the previous seven military regions. There is now a three-layer command structure: the Central Military Commission (CMC) is at the top; next come the theatre commands; and finally military units. The administrative chain of command is separate, running from the CMC to the four service headquarters and then to units. Another change after 2015 reduced administrative and non-combatant staff by around 300,000, bringing the total number of active personnel to roughly two million. The 19th Party Congress in October 2017 reorganised the CMC’s military leadership, a move that was seen as an effort to centralise power in the PLA. The CMC was reduced from 11 to seven members, with Xi as chairman, two vice-chairmen and four members. In 2016, 15 departments replaced the CMC’s previous four general departments, again to promote modernisation. The China Coast Guard in March 2018 was moved under the People’s Armed Police, which was also put under direct command of the CMC. The transfer formalised the CCG’s command and control along military lines, and allowed it to train with the PLA Navy to formally build its war-fighting functions.

PEOPLE’S ARMED POLICE (PAP) (中国人民武装警察部队) Formed: 1982

CCG vessels over 1,000 tonnes

Personnel: 660,000* Role

2010

The PAP is a paramilitary force, separate from the PLA, used primarily to deploy in the event of natural disasters, protests or hostage crises. It is tasked with safeguarding national security and social stability, and protecting strategic facilities and infrastructure, as well as important people and events. It has deployed internationally as well as on domestic tasks.

2017

cy operating in areas that China

Modernisation features  The centralisation of the Central Military Commission’s (CMC’s) power under President Xi Jinping, in 2017, triggered a set of reforms. One of these was the announcement that from 2018 the PAP would come under the direct co ntrol of the CMC. It had previously been under the dual control of the CMC and the State Council (cabinet).

ommand of the State Oceanic med Police control in 2018. er vessels capable of operating s includes ex-PLAN vessels and e designs.

 Under the previous structure, lower-level officials in central administration and local officials had some power over PAP forces. This is now no longer the case.

Beijing region 162nd Combined 23rd SAM Arms Brigade Brigade

19th Aviation Brigade

21st Aviation Brigade

6th Combined Arms Brigade

1st Beijing Guard Division

to measure cyber power. Our Conflict, Security and

72nd Aviation Brigade Tianjin

Artillery Regiment, 112th Infantry Division 82nd Army Aviation Brigade

161st Air Assault Brigade

44th Aviation Brigade Hohhot

83rd Artillery Brigade

Yinchuan

56th Aviation Brigade

149th Combined Arms Brigade

37th Regiment, 13th Transport Division

76th Group Army HQ

182nd Combined Arms Brigade

Xining

188th Combined Arms Brigade

76th Special Operations Brigade

SHANXI

18th Aviation Brigade

Hubei region

643 Missile Brigade

131st Airborne Brigade

83rd Air Defence Brigade

Operations Brigade

60th Combined Arms Brigade 131st Combined Arms Brigade

644 Missile Brigade**

SHAANXI

Airborne Helicopter Regiment

Airborne Transport Brigade(-)

Philippines

Mianyang

Chengdu

39th Regiment, 13th Transport Division

Nanchong

77th Air Defence Brigade

SICHUAN

77th Special Operations Brigade 77th Army Aviation Brigade Chengdu

Nanchong

Neijiang

Western Theatre Air Force HQ

11th SAM Brigade 12th Regiment,

80th Air Defence Brigade

653 Missile 80th Special Brigade Operations Brigade

40th Combined

39th Combined

621 Missile Brigade

CHONGQING Chongqing

Flotilla

5th SAM Brigade

K O R E A

5th Naval

Aviation Brigade(-) 12th Frigate East; and examined the foreign-policy Flotilla implications of

69th Combined Arms Brigade

S O U T H

666 Missile Brigade

Brigade

Yueyang

58th Regiment, 20th Special Mission Division

5th Marine Brigade

Northern Naval

Brigade 2nd Submarine Shangri-LaSAM Manama Dialogues. These Dialogues, 1st and Landing Xiaowan Flotilla

Shanghai region conceived

613 Missile

Missile Squadron

1st Destroyer Aircraft

and developedFlotilla by Carrier theBaseIISS, provide

the principal regional forums for annual public 72nd Air Defence Brigade

78th Aviation

Brigade as private 14th Frigate 1st Naval Aviation Regiment as well policy statements, bilateral and Flotilla HQ

86th Aviation Brigade

2nd Naval

Aviation Regiment 4th Minesweeper multilateral meetings among government officials. Squadron

179th Combined Nanjing Arms Brigade 77th Regiment, 76th Regiment, Eastern Theatre 26th Special 26th Special Air Force HQ Mission Division Mission Division 7th SAM 34th Combined Brigade Arms Brigade 72nd Army Aviation Brigade 72nd Artillery Brigade

5th Landing Engaging business leaders and key regional Ship Flotilla

72nd Special in enhancing strategists, they play a major role Operations Brigade 93rd Reconnaissance

Hangzhou

ZHEJIANG 612 Missile Brigade

Ship Squadron

30th Regiment, 235th Combined 178th Combined 29th Regiment, Arms Brigade Arms Brigade 10th Bomber Division 10th Bomber Division

E A S T E R N T H E AT R E C O M M A N D 16th SAM Brigade

40th Aviation Brigade

Brigade

5th Naval 2nd Submarine ministers and experts at our Qingdao world-renowned Aviation Regiment Base

Nanjing

28th Regiment, 10th Bomber Division

Nanchang

54th Aviation

Brigade

Shanghai

53rd Aviation Brigade

36th Aviation

Northern Theatre Navalconvene heads of state, government our ability 5th to Navy HQ Aviation Brigade(-)

4th Naval Aviation Brigade(-)

Wuhan

138th Combined Arms Brigade

203rd Combined formulation and shapes public debate Arms Brigade through 80th Artillery 15th Aviation

SHANDONG

Hefei

HUBEI

K O R E A

Qingdao

ANHUI

80th Group Army HQ

Brigade government policy Influence. The IISS informs 6th Marine 35th Aviation

Zhengzhou

C E N T R A L T H E AT R E C O M M A N D

Mianyang

139th Combined Arms Brigade

Squadron

Yantai

Jinan

80th Army Aviation Brigade

11th Combined Arms Brigade

Sichuan/Chongqing region

provided updates on conflicts from Sudan to Syria; 10th Destroyer 12th Submarine

Yantai 4th of Naval Southeast Asian states. the domestic politics Aviation Regiment

71st Special 94th Aviation Operations 55th Aviation Brigade Brigade Brigade 13th Frigate Flotilla 2nd Combined 95th Aviation Brigade Arms Brigade HQ 57th Aviation 160th Combined Arms Brigade Brigade 71st Group Army HQ 35th Combined 71st Air 662 Missile Arms Brigade 58th Combined Defence Brigade Brigade 71st Artillery Arms Brigade Brigade 71st Army HENAN Aviation Brigade JIANGSU 663 Missile Nanyang Brigade

113th Combined Arms Brigade

11th Frigate

assessed Iran’s influence networks across the Middle N O R T H

52nd Aviation Brigade

38th Regiment, 13th Transport Division

133rd Airborne Brigade

191st Combined Arms Brigade 88th Aviation Brigade

80th Combined Arms Brigade Central Theatre 199th Army HQ Northern Combined 47th Flight Test and Training Arms Combined Theatre Centre (Jiugucheng) Arms Brigade Army HQ Brigade 34th Aviation Brigade

Wuhan

134th Airborne Brigade

LIAONING

14th SAM Brigade

Xian 108th Regiment, 107th Regiment, 661 Missile 36th Bomber Brigade 36th Bomber Division Division

106th Regiment, 36th Bomber Division

9th SAM Brigade

Taiwan Airborne Special

641 Missile Brigade 17th SAM Brigade

Dalian

1st SAM Brigade

Flotilla 6th ramifications ofNavalexpanded renewable energy in Asia; Aviation Regiment 11th Minesweeper

82nd Air Defence Brigade

Shijianzhuang

Handan

Brigade

130th Airborne Brigade

Tianjin

193rd Combined Arms Brigade

Western Theatre Army HQ

76th Air Defence Japan

South Korea

10th Regiment, 5th SAM Division

76th Army Aviation Brigade

Lanzhou

79th Air Defence Brigade Missile Brigade Initiative; examined the political651 and business

Anshan

81st Air Defence Brigade

TIANJIN HEBEI

Taiyuan

76th Artillery Brigade

QINGHAI

89th Aviation Brigade and security trajectories of China’s Belt and Road 654 Missile Brigade

48th Combined Arms Brigade

Flotilla

NINGXIA

642 Missile Brigade

46th Combined European strategic autonomy Arms Brigadeand the economic 90th Aviation Brigade

61st Aviation Brigade

Dalian

17th Combined Arms Brigade

8th SAM Brigade

Arms Brigade

strategic issues. We have evaluated the cost of

652 Missile Brigade Shenyeng

190th Combined Arms Brigade

Combined publishes clear,200th precise and timely analysis on Arms Brigade

91st Aviation Brigade

Carrier Aviation Regiment

Beijing

43rd Aviation Brigade

16th Aviation Brigade

Zhengzhou

664 Missile Brigade**

7th Combined Arms Brigade 81st Special Operations Brigade

127th Airborne Brigade 128th Airborne Brigade

79th Special Operations Brigade

79th Artillery Brigade

20th SAM Brigade(-)

ed de

Combined ms Brigade

2nd Aviation Brigade

195th Combined Arms Brigade

63rd Aviation Brigade

115th Combined Arms Brigade

Mission Division

Analysis. The IISS identifies crucial 116th Combined questions and

202nd Combined Arms Brigade

31st Aviation Brigade

118th Combined Arms Brigade

83rd Group 83rd Special Army HQ Operations Brigade

R U S S I A

204th Combined Arms Brigade

Changchun

119th Combined Arms Brigade

Henan region

Anshan

79th Army Aviation Brigade

33rd Aviation Brigade

17th Regiment, 5th SAM Division

151st Combined 127th Combined 82nd Group Army HQ Arms Brigade Arms Brigade

16th Special Mission Division

contemporary conflict. 79th Group Army HQ

78th Artillery Brigade

78th Air Defence Brigade

INNER MONGOLIA

Flight Test and Training Centre (Cangzhou)

Air Force HQ

12th SAM Brigade

47th Regiment, one place the information needed to understand 16th Special 46th Regiment,

JILIN

189th Combined Arms Brigade

334th Regiment, 112th Infantry Division

N O R T H E R N T H E AT R E C O M M A N D

20th Aviation Brigade

13th Regiment, 5th SAM Division

335th Regiment, 112th Infantry Division

Development research Northern programme assembles in Theatre

1st Aviation Brigade

3rd Beijing Guard Division

3rd Regiment, 5th SAM Division

I A

defence trends. We are developing a methodology

Harbin 8th Combined Arms Brigade

78th Special Operations Brigade

70th Aviation Brigade 81st Army Aviation Brigade

Air Defence Regiment, 112th Infantry Division

ndonesia

and employ advanced analytic tools to understand

194th Combined Arms Brigade Beijing

82nd Special Operations Brigade

77th Artillery Brigade

database allows users to produce bespoke graphics

78th Army Aviation Brigade

82nd Artillery Brigade

Central Theatre Air Force

ombined Brigade

CHINA’S ARMED FORCES

78th Group Army HQ

21st SAM Brigade

196th Combined Arms Brigade

data on 171 countries. The Military Balance Plus

Liaoning/Shandong region

3rd Aviation Brigade

70th Combined Arms Brigade

81st Artillery Brigade

Airborne Transport Brigade(-)

THE 2019 MILITARY may have an important military dimension. Our analysts continuously collect BALANCE CHARTand validate defence

HEILONGJIANG

22nd SAM Brigade

20th SAM Brigade(-)

Test and Training Base (Dingxin)

relevant data about conflict, however caused, that

68th Combined Arms Brigade

81st Group Army HQ

Armoured Regiment, 112th Infantry Division

The Facts. International Institute for Strategic Studies policyThe IISS produces independent,

10th Combined

Shanghai

Brigade Arms Brigade regional strategic transparency. 8th Aviation 72nd Group Army HQ

7th Aviation 9th Aviation Brigade Brigade

Brigade

611 Missile Brigade

84th Aviation Brigade 83rd Aviation Brigade

Hangzhou

5th Combined 124th Combined

6th Naval Aviation Brigade(-)

3rd SAM Brigade

3rd Naval Aviation Regiment 9th Minesweeper Squadron

16th Frigate Flotilla

Top 15 defence budgets 2018† US$bn 2. China

1. United States

3. Saudi Arabia

4. Russiaa

82.9

63.1

6. United Kingdom

7. France

ICT infrastructure projects Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan Lebanon

Analysis with impactICT infrastructure projects As of December 2018

Strategic studies is often narrowly

interpreted as the study of military power. While that is its fulcrum, it is not its Economic wherewithal is an essential precursor to sustainable defence

industrial base is necessary to produce weapons of sophisticated engineering at scale and incorporate new capabilities. Strategy and diplomacy either amplify or detract from the effectiveness of military force, while policies that strengthen fragile states or improve their capacity for change build a more stable international order and can foster patterns of

Romania

Estonia

168.2 5. India

Finland

Russia

SECURITY INFORMATION SYSTEM

Japan

E-GOVERNANCE

Croatia Albania

South Korea

Serbia

11. Brazil

China

Greece

Nepal

Bulgaria Egypt Niger

Hong Kong Philippines

Pakistan

Mali

Djibouti

Guinea

Malaysia

Maldives

Kenya

Benin

Seychelles

Nigeria

Comoros

E-GOVERNANCE

TELECOM

FIBRE OPTIC CABLES AND NETWORK

26.6

rich short analyses published weekly as Strategic Comments, and in-depth Strategic Dossiers that form the fact base for major policy decisions by governments and assessments of geopolitical risk by businesses.

47.3

45.7

39.2

13. Italy

14. Israelb

15. Iraq

21.6

19.6

U S

5G NETWORK TECHNOLOGY 24.9

Under NATO defence-spending definition; b Includes US Foreign Military Assistance

5G NETWORK Note: US dollar totals are calculated using average market exchange rates for 2018, derived using IMF data. The relative position of countries will vary not only as a re TECHNOLOGY SMART CITY

TELECOM

levels, but also due to exchange-rate fluctuations between domestic currencies and the US dollar. The use of average exchange rates reduces these fluctuations, but th in a number of cases.

Bangladesh

FIBRE OPTIC CABLES 2018 AND NETWORK

Singapore Thailand

Mauritius

Oman

Saudi Afghanistan Iraq Arabia

11.0%

10.8%

Myanmar

top 15 defence and security budgets as a % of GDP*

Israel

Algeria

Jordan

Iran

Kuwait

Mali

5.9%

5.3%

4.7%

4.6%

4.3%

4.1%

Armenia Russia

Zimbabwe South Africa

10.1%

7.5%

4.0%

* Analysis only includes countries for which sufficient comparable data is available. Notable exceptions include Cuba, Eritrea, Libya, North Ko

Planned global defence expenditure by region 2018† Latin America and the Caribbean 3.6%

Planned defence expendit Latin America and the Caribbean, 3.6%

Asia and Australasia 24.3%

North America 39.2%

Other

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0% Other Eurasia, 0.5% Other Middle East and North Africa, 5.8% Other Asia, 5.8% South Korea, 2.3%

Survival, which brings leading scholarly publications programme includes fact-

53.4 10. South Korea

Papua New Guinea

Equatorial Guinea Cameroon

12. Australia

DIGITAL IGITAL FREE TRADE ZONE

28.0

Vietnam

Cambodia

Somalia

Ghana

SECURITY INFORMATION SYSTEM

Taiwan 5G

With that wide perspective, the IISS

voices to bear on security issues. Our

56.1 9. Germany

SMART CITY

produces some of the world’s most affairs, epitomised by our flagship journal

57.9

8. Japan

Kyrgyzstan

France Austria x 2

cooperation among states.

influential analysis in international

DIGITAL FREE TRADE ZONE

643.3

Tajikistan

Czech Republic 5G

spending; technological prowess powers innovation and disruption; a defence-

Armenia

Poland

totality.

Ukraine

Lithuania

Hungary

Middle East and North Africa 10.7% Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0% Russia and Eurasia 4.2% Figures do not sum due to rounding effects † At current prices and exchange rates

Europe 16.9%

Germany, 2.7% Japan, 2.8% France, 3.2% United Kingdom, 3.3%

India, 3.4% Russia Sa 3.7% Ar 4

These independent analyses and unique insights have played a significant part in understanding and resolving conflict. Our 2011 FARC Files dossier analysed over 1.6 million pieces of captured

By ratifying the COP-21 agreement in October 2016, the European Union reaffirmed its intent to limit the effects of climate change. Between 1990 and 2015, the EU28 reduced greenhouse-gas emissions by 22%, largely by replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources of energy. It is on track to meet its goal of ensuring that, by 2020, at least 30% of the electricity supply comes from renewables.

rebel information. The facts that we

Some EU countries invested billions of euros in wind and solar energy, acquiring almost enough installed renewables capacity to meet peak demand. Indeed, in good conditions, these countries covered a huge share of their power needs with wind and solar energy. Yet average utilisation rates remained low, indicating a disconnect between the scale of the investment and its effects. Nonetheless, beyond its environmental impact, the shift towards renewables reduced the EU’s reliance on energy imports, a potentially important consideration in an unstable political and security environment.

Europe

15.0–19.9

peace talks and thus paved the way to

Percentage-point increase since 2006

20.0–24.9 25.0–29.9

ending Colombia’s civil war in 2016.

13.6

30.0–34.9 35.0–39.9

United States

China

Ecuador to encourage the rebels to join

10.0–14.9

NEW INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE POWER AND FUELS, 2006–15 (US$BN) 150

independently revealed led Venezuela and

SHARE OF RENEWABLES ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION, 2015 (%)*

SWEDEN

40.0–44.9

120

Nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines (SSBN), nuclear-powered guided-missile submarines (SSGN) and nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN)

90 60

60.0–64.9 65.0–69.9

NORWAY

RUSSIA

13 EU COUNTRIES WITH HIGHEST INSTALLED WIND AND SOLAR CAPACITY, 2015 (GW) UK

FRANCE

Bioenergy

400

45 9.1

14.3

10.2

Russia (Pacific Fleet)

6,000 5,000 4,000

UNITED KINGDOM

GERMANY

LUXEMBOURG

AUSTRIA

2.5

SLOVENIA

FRANCE

TEMPERATURE AND FLOODING CHANGES IN EUROPE Number of severe floods** **2011–15 No Data

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0.0

7.0

9.3

4.9

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

ITALY

14.4 PORTUGAL

17.4

Minister of India, and Shinzo Abe, Prime 6.8

Our ability to facilitate unprecedented

6.4

MOLDOVA

10.2

CROATIA

dialogue and diplomacy is highlighted by many other smaller events, including the

ROMANIA SERBIA

IISS-led South Asia Security Conference

8.5

MONTENEGRO

KOSOVO BULGARIA (FYR) MACEDONIA ALBANIA

16.0

SPAIN

Minister of Japan.

UKRAINE

HUNGARY

BOSNIAHERZEGOVINA

22.4

leaders such as Shri Narendra Modi, Prime

POLAND

CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVAKIA

SWITZERLAND

Temperature rise above pre-industrial levels (°C)* *Annual average over land areas

Middle East respectively, hosting world BELARUS

11.1

17.8

NETHERLANDS

17.1 BELGIUM

2015

2014

6.8

2013

0 2012

0 2011

2,000 1,000

RUSSIA

6.0 REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

defence summits in the Asia-Pacific and

LITHUANIA

20.0

3,000

100

30.7

DENMARK

18.7

300

2010

9.2

are recognised as the most important

LATVIA

200

18.9

The IISS Shangri-La and Manama Dialogues

45.2

Greenhouse-gas emissions (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent)

Solar

2009

7.2

Hydropower

Wind Nuclear-powered 500 submarines

SOLAR 39.8

1 Electricity capacity (GW)

2008

USA WIND (Pacific theatre/ 44.7West Coast) 23.0

ITALY

2007

SPAIN

2006

GERMANY

ESTONIA

EU RENEWABLES ELECTRICITY CAPACITY AND India 2006–15 GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS,

in Oman where intelligence chiefs from TURKEY

MOROCCO

TUNISIA

Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan have met to discuss how to

GREECE

ALGERIA

and its capacity to shape agendas directly make it a strategic actor in its own right.

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

The unrivalled convening power of the IISS

*Select EU countries

China 2006

FINLAND

70.0–74.9

30 0

Influence for dialogue and diplomacy

17.2

45.0–49.9

counter the expansion of the Islamic State

MALTA CYPRUS

in South Asia.

Providing answers to the questions on the minds of policymakers today EU strategic autonomy. Existing analysis on European defence has focused mainly on its prospective institutional arrangements and overlooked the actual costs of European strategic autonomy. Using its proprietary Military Balance Plus database and developing scenarios, the IISS measured European defence capability gaps and the price of closing them. It assessed that European NATO members would have to invest between US$288 billion and US$357bn to fill the capability gaps needed to defend European NATO territory against a state-level military attack and prevail in a

IRAQ

limited regional war in Europe against a

Poland, 2%

JORDAN

peer adversary. This IISS study provided a

Germany, 10%

fully costed analysis to support intelligent

Spain, 2%

Other, 4%

Netherlands, 3%

IRAN

Sweden, 3%

KUWAIT

debate on European defence. 14 May 2019: UAV attacks on Saudi Aramco pump stations 8 and 9

Iran. In the Middle East, there has been heightened concern around the activities

EGYPT

of Iranian proxies and partners operating

Yanbu

in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, the Gulf

Eastâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;West

pipeline

Abu Dhabiâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Fujairah Research and QATAR development pipeline UAE

States and beyond. However, no one SAUDI ARABIA France, 41%

has published a proper taxonomy of the various influence networks operated by Iran, an analysis of their command-andcontrol mechanisms, how they achieve

given, or the capacities of different

Research and technology

12 May 2019: Four vessels sabotaged off Fujairah UK 5%

UK 18%

OMAN

SUDAN

their initial purchase in foreign societies, the nature of the strategic directions

France, 39%

United Kingdom, Strait of Hormuz 43%

BAHRAIN

Riyadh

UK 50%

United Kingdom, 25%

EU-27 95%

YEMEN

Other, 3%

EU-27 82% Main battle tanks

Vehicle-launched bridges

UK 53%

EU-27 50% Nuclear attack submarines

UK 38%

BRICS cable In development since 2011, and due to go live in mid-2015, the 34,000km-long BRICS cable is an initiative of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. It will circumvent North American and European telecommunications hubs. Spurred on by the Snowden revelations that her own communications had been intercepted, in September 2013 Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff highlighted the project’s promise for greater online independence and security.

ional Security Agency (NSA) ctices, encouraged efforts by n hubs, and left Washington

include the contents of a call, text r investigators. Under Section 215 alls made into and within the ned up by Washington.

Attempts at reform by the United States • In December 2013, Presidential Review Group publishes report, Liberty and Security in a Changing World, making 46 recommendations for reform. • In January 2014, US President Barack Obama announces that, with immediate effect, the NSA will restrict itself to examining data only two ‘hops’ away from a specific target and only query the database of metadata after obtaining judicial authorisation or in a genuine emergency. • In May, the House of Representatives passes legislation designed to end the NSA’s bulk data-collection programme. The data will instead be stored by phone companies for 18 months, and the NSA will need to obtain a warrant to probe the records of a given suspect. • The US will, however, continue to collect intelligence on the policies of foreign governments – which are themselves engaged in collecting intelligence on the US.

Undersea fibre-optic cables More than 550,000 miles of flexible undersea cables carry all the world’s emails, Internet searches and tweets. The cables connect to landing stations that route the traffic they carry to domestic networks or forward it on to another undersea cable network. The first intercontinental submarine cable ran between Europe and North America and became operational in 1958. Cross-section of an undersea cable, diameter 69mm Galvanised armour wires Tar-soaked nylon yarn

types of proxy actors linked to Iran for independent action. Without such a refined

Optical fibres

analysis, it is unlikely that sound policies Silicon gel

can be developed. The IISS seeks to provide that independent assessment in the form

Buffering material (Plastic/steel)

of a strategic dossier on Iran’s influence networks.

Nylon yarn bedding

Cyber security. The increasing proclivity

Ultra-high strength steel wires

of states to blend cyber capacity into their

RUSSIA

military operations features constantly in

Copper sheath

strategic discussions. Yet no serious effort has been made to measure or properly

GERMANY ITALY

define cyber power. The IISS is developing

FRANCE

a methodology prudently to measure

Figure 5.1: Notable Chinese cyber developments February 2013

December 2015

Report by US cyber security firm Mandiant identifies APT1 group, responsible for extensive cyber espionage since 2006, as linked to Second Bureau of PLA General Staff Department Third Department

Establishment of the PLA Strategic Support Force (PLASSF), incorporating the Third Department of the former General Staff Department

cyber power, not only to assess where

CHINA

countries stand, but also to determine what a country might need to do in order to move from, for example, a tier-three

INDIA

to a tier-two status, or even to aspire to be a cyber power of the first order. We will deploy that methodology to develop

November 2016 February 2014 Establishment of the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), China’s primary internet regulator

June 2017 ca

March 2014 ble Hack of the US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) discovered, later attributed to Chinese hackers

national assessments, to be published in

China’s Cyber Security Law passed by Standing Committee of National People’s Congress

China’s Cyber Security Law comes into force

The Military Balance.

AUSTRALIA

November 2017

May 2014

US charges three Chinese hackers with targeting US corporations for commercial advantage

US indicts five Chinese military 2 August 2013:espionage Major telecommunicahackers for cyber against , similar tions companies including BT, Vodafone

5 September 2013: NSA is involved with major technical companies in

16 September 2013: A special department within NSA known as

30 September 2013: NSA stores metadata including web searches,

4 December 2013: NSA gathers five million records per day on the

Germany

EXXON/ROSNEFT

Finland Czech Republic

KALININGRAD Latvia Estonia SPECIAL REGION Kaliningrad Poland

War. Fear, honour and interest. Politics by other means. Whether one prefers the approach of Thucydides or Clausewitz, the motivations for war have been constant over time.

Slovakia Hungary

Lithuania

Belarus

Pe c Se hor a a

GENERAL STRIKE Autoworkers, 2015 St Petersburg

Kara Sea SHELL/GAZPROM NEFT

SCHLUMBERGER & BAKER HUGHES Western subsidiary company

WESTERN MILITARY DISTRICT (Western Strategic Command) EXXON/ROSNEFT Bazhenov Formation

Romania Moldova Bulgaria

Ukraine

TOTAL/LUKOIL Galyanovski deposit

WORK-TO-RULE STRIKE Metallurgical plant, March 2015

SHELL/GAZPROM NEFT Salym oil fields Black Ukrainian territory Kachkanarsk Crimea illegally Sea under separatist CENTRAL MILITARY DISTRICT annexed by control (Central Strategic Command) have pro Russia in 2014 In recent years, armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have proliferated, despite US eﬀorts to limit theirChelyabinsk sale. Domestic developments, and imports, ENI/ROSNEFT EXXON/ROSNEFT an increasing number of countries with the Turkey ability to operate weaponised systems. The most signiﬁcant producers of armed UAVs are the US and China. Th SOUTHERN MILITARY DISTRICT WORKERS SENT ONE DAY A WEEK the armed variant however, has so far pursued a cautious approach to the export of armed systems,(South while China has been less restrained. TheHOME US has supplied Strategic Command) Tractor factory, 2015

MQ-9 Reaper to the United Kingdom, a close ally, but declined to do so to other partners such as Saudi Arabia. China has grasped this opportunity, and ha THE BALTIC REGION, 2015–16 supplied armed UAVs to a number of countries, including Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, among others. The increased in 2015 Around half of NATO’s exercises take placeIndia in the East in such systems has also led other states to pursue their own programmes (Russia, Iran, and South Africa, for example) or to consider arming systems alrea service. Israel operates a variety of armed UAVs, but as yet therebegins are no identiﬁeddrive exports of new such systems, although Israel has widely exported intelligence, survei  Poland recapitalisation delivering capabilities and reconnaissance UAVs. in advanced defence and air-launched cruise missiles and submarines

tactical innovation is the ability of states to mount and sustain conflict, and the capacity of societies to recover from its effects. IISS research explores the emergent technologies that are entering state and

BELARUSmilitary personnel – top 10 Active (25,000 per unit)

US VOLYNSKA RIVNENSKA 3,002 ZHYTOMYRSKA 3,065

Feb 2015

 NATO Force Integration Units (NFIUs) are activated in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania [smaller units planned for Hungary and Slovakia]

Sep 2015

 US distributes assets from its ‘European Activities Set’ to maintenance bases in Eastern Europe in the form of equipment to support an armoured brigade combat team (ABCT)

Feb 2016

 Lithuania announces reintroduction of conscription

CHERNIHIVSKA 6,991

SUMSKA

 US announces fourfold increase in funding for its ‘European Reassurance Initiative’ allowing for a continuous Geographic reach of Boko rotation of US-based RUSSIAABCTs and army predispositioned stocks

Russia: Inokhodets APPROVAL RATINGS: Prime developer: VLADIMIR PUTIN AND DMITRY MEDVEDEV Kronstadt Technologies 90 Percent

What changes with technological and

Putin

70 60

ADAMAWA

Jan 16

Sep 15

May 15

Jan 15

Sep 14

May 14

Jan 14

DIFFA Haram’s factions Medvedev 50 Russia non-state arsenals and how these arePOLAND CHINA  Anakonda exercise in Poland involving 31,000 personnel Selected violent incidents 11,307Jun 2016 Question: Do you approve of the activities of Putin/Medvedev? 900,000 from 24 NATO and partner states NIGER 40 Selected violent incidents changing both the character and prospects CHAD 6,923 Jul 2016 Kiev CHERKASKA POLTAVSKA (more than 20 fatalities)  NATO announces it will deploy, on a rotational basis, four LVIVSKA Kharkiv KYIVSKA of conflict. We are examining the changing KHMELNYTSKA multinational battalions in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland Diffa Ukraine 209,000 Nigerian refugees TERNOPIL 10,520 Lake Chad 53,989 22,568 11,095 5,273 126,096 balances of power and how these affect Sources: NATO; Al-Jazeera; Royal Dutch Shell; Greenpeace; Telegraph; Financial Times; New York Times; Reuters; Guardian; Trading Economics; 2,090 14,894 World Bank; Yuri Levada Analytic Center; LUHANSKA VINNYTSKA IVANOKHARKIVSKA Estonian Foreign Policy Institute; The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies; UpNorth; IISS 118,781 269,483 Azerbaijan 66,950 defence calculations. The IISS is looking FRANKIVSKA KIROVOHRADSKA DNIPROPETROVSKA 10,180 487,674 Luhansk at the increasing place of influence TRANSCARPATHIA 3,170 2,415 India: Rustom DONETSKA 6,604 Uzbekistan 48,000 CHERNIVETSKA Armed UAV sales MH17 Prime developer: Donetsk operations in statecraft. We analyse the 67,717 crash site MYKOLAIVSKA UAVs approved to Defence Research and ZAPORIZKA armed after deliv Belarus 45,350 YOBE changing patterns of defence-industry JIGAWA ODESKA Development BORNO 8,005 MOLDOVA KHERSONSKA Mariupol States currently N’Djamena producing a Organisation (DRDO) economics and how these will affect force South Africa: Killing of Aleksandr 53,234 operating armed UAVs: Chin 34,871 12,749 Maiduguri Armed insurgency Seeker 400 Damaturu Israel, Turkey, United States Zakharchenko modernisation and alliance relationships. Odessa 136,399 Controlled by Russia Prime developer: States that have acquired ar The aim of our work on armed conflict isRegions under martial law KANO UAVs: Egypt, Iraq, Kazakhsta Denel Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, IDPs (total) CRIMEA to provide data that will assist the work of FAR NORTH Arabia, Turkmenistan, United Selected combat-capable UAVs and manufacturers ROMANIA Major violent events Emirates, United Kingdom governments and the expert community in CH-3 – China Aerospace Shahed 129Incident – Aerospace MQ-9 Reaper – General CH-4 - China Aerospace Science NIGERIA Sevastapol Kerch Strait Sources: Government of Ukraine, Ministry of Social Policy; States that have acquired U Science and Technology Industries Atomics Aeronautical CAMEROON analysing the causes, course and potential UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission Ukraine; IISS and Technology and have been given US app Corp. (CASC) BAUCHI Organization Systems Inc. arm them: France, Italy Corp. (CASC) consequences of conflict. Maroua (GA-ASI) States that currently have GOMBE development programmes fo UAVs: India, Russia, South A

139,670 KIEV

XXON/ROSNEFT

shale-oil reserves (subsidiaries of Western companies in Russia permitted to continue ongoing work on oil deposits).

SEA OF OKHOTSK Sanctions do not apply to areas where the sea depth is under 150 metres EASTERN MILITARY DISTRICT (East Strategic Command, OSK-Vostok)

FINANCE: travel bans and asset freezes on several Russian entities; ban on credit lasting more than 30 days to state banks and energy companies, including Rosneft, Transneft (EU only), Gazprom Neft, Sberbank, VTB Bank, Gazprombank, Vnesheconombank, Rosselkhozbank and Bank of Moscow (US only).

Sea of Okhotsk STATOIL/ROSNEFT

DEFENCE: ban on future EU–Russia arms deals; ban on the export of dual-use technology to Russia; restrictions on export licences for defence equipment made, or intended for use, in Russia.

EXXON/ROSNEFT SHELL/GAZPROM NEFT

U S S I A HUNGER STRIKE (UNPAID WAGES) National Space Centre, April 2015

Defence industry. The IISS has evaluated

FALLING OIL PRICES: JAN 2012–APRIL 2016 Vostochny Cosmodrome

US$ price per barrel

Jul 15

in the tools, methodologies and metrics

Jan 16

Jan 15

Jul 14

Jan 14

Jul 13

Jul 12

Jan 13

the arms trade; provides major advances Jan 12

that can be brought to bear to assess current and future trends in military

–6 –8

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

–10

Defence revenue, US$bn (2017)

–0.2

–0.4 2015

Real Forecast

–4

products.

0.2

2014

–2

and visualisation tools to provide online

0.4

2013

power; and leverages predictive analytics

0.6

2012

global defence-industrial landscape and

2011

Percentage contribution to growth

2011

examines the drivers of change in the

HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION

2010

ANNUAL GDP GROWTH

2009

companies. Its groundbreaking research

100

TEACHERS’ STRIKE April 2015 Zabaikal

Percent

the growing prominence of China’s defence

120

1. Lockheed Martin Corp. 2. Boeing 3. Raytheon 4. BAE Systems 5. AVIC 6. Northrop Grumman Corp. 7. General Dynamics Corp. 8. NORINCO 9. CSGC 10. Airbus Group 11. CASIC 12. CETC 13. CSIC 14. Thales 15. Leonardo 16. Almaz-Antey 17. United Technologies Corp. 18. L-3 Communications 19. CASC 20. Huntington Ingalls Industries 21. United Aircraft Corp. 22. United Shipbuilding Corp. 23. CSSC 24. Honeywell International 25. Rolls-Royce

40 44.9

26.9 23.9 22.9 22.4 22.4 19.5 13.9 13.8 11.3 11.0 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.6 7.8 7.8 7.3 6.5 6.4 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4

Percentage share of defence

Sources: SIPRI Top 100 Arms-producing and Military Services Companies

Power. Geopolitical risk is back in fashion as competition heats up among great powers.

Geo-economic shifts and geotechnological disruption have dramatic geopolitical consequences. The strategic arrival of a diversity of new actors on the global stage is complicating assessments of power and influence. Strategic competition between

Middle East oil exports, 1985–2017

democratic and non-democratic states is

becoming more overt and the maps of being strikingly redrawn in ways that affect governments and businesses. IISS work in this area draws on the research strength that we are building

20 Million barrels per day (mb/d)

international commerce and alliances are

in geo-economics, with the core of our

forms of economic competition.

term project examines the implications and impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, bringing together researchers from across the IISS to: explore economic and debt

20%

3.2bn

Middle East exports asEGYPT share of global oil consumption (%)

Tel Afar

Red Sea

Deir ez-Zor

1990 Iranians1985 who visited Damascus’s Sayyida Zeinab shrine, prior Damascus to the outbreak of the Syrian conflict

1995

G 10%

OMAN

Shirqat

SUDAN Mayadin 2000ERITREA 2005 6.1bn

SYRIA

DAMASCUS 416,000 p/a

Persian Gulf UAE

SAUDI ARABIA

0% 2010

YEMEN

2015

Baquba IRAQ

KARBALA 64,000 p/a

IRAN’S MILITARY PRESENCE AZERBAIJAN

DJIBOUTI

Iranians who visited Karbala’s Imam Husayn shrine in 2016

ETHIOPIA

JORDAN SYRIA AFGHANISTAN LEBANON 2,000

SOMALIA

IRAN IRAQ

Belt and Road Initiative. A large, long-

IRAN

TURKEY

sharpened for great-power competition geopolitical challenges thrown up by new

30% AZERBAIJAN

ARMENIA

Latakia

research exploring how economic tools are and how businesses need to navigate the

40%

Oil exports from the Middle East (mb/d)

KUWAIT

QATARI–IRANIAN

EGYPT

Claimed fatalities of Iranian/Iranian-backed forces in Syria, 2011–17

PAKISTAN

KENYA NATURAL-GAS PROJECT

South Pars

US strikes on Iranian-backed forces Iranian-backed militant groups

Recruitment of fighters for Syrian conflict

TANZANIA

Hizbullah

Hashd al-Shaabi (some constituent groups)

YEMEN Deployments of Iranian forces

Houthis

North Dome Claimed natural-gas production, 2017 570m cubic metres per day Estimated reserves of natural gas 14trn cubic metres

DJIBOUTI

MECCA 80,000 p/a Iranians participating in the hajj in 2017*

Estimated reserves of

condensates MOZAMBIQUEgas 8bn barrels

MADAGASCAR

QATAR

SEYCHELLES (Assum MAURITI SAUDI ARABIA

–6 GDP

GDP

4.4

3.1

–3.9 Venezuela

JUN 2016 POLITICAL CHANGE: centre-right Pablo Kuczynski wins election, defeating right-wing opponent Keiko Fujimori

Colombia

Peru

Brazil

GDP

3.3

GDP

–3.8

GDP

1.2% REGIONAL GDP GROWTH

0.5

Note: 2015 estimate, and 2016/2017 projections

MAY 2016 POLITICAL CHANGE: socialist President Dilma Rousseff is suspended from office, with approval ratings of less than 10%, and replaced by Michel Temer, her centrist vice-president

Colombia

0.1

GDP GROWTH

–8

Venezuela

GDP

2.4

–5.7

Peru

Brazil

GDP

–5.7

–7

GDP

ARGENTINA

BRAZIL

questions; assess the trade and investment BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: US$ –58.905bn (2015) impact; examine energy security issues; UNEMPLOYMENT: 6.9% (2015) assess the development and outcomes TOP EXPORT COMMODITIES: Iron ore, soya beans, crudeDigital Silk Road; and analyse the of the petroleum, raw sugar and poultry meat geopolitical implications. TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS: China, United States, Argentina

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: US$ –15.9bn (2015) UNEMPLOYMENT: 6.3% (2015) TOP EXPORT COMMODITIES: Vegetable-oil products, lorries and trucks, soya beans and soya-bean products, motor vehicles and oil TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS: Brazil, China, United States

Energy. The IISS has evaluated sustainable

COLOMBIA

1.2

energy projects across Asia to determine

MEXICO

the future effects on security relationships.

NOV 2015 POLITICAL CHANGE: centre-right BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: Mauricio Macri defeats leftist US$ –18.926bn (2015) US$ –32.381bn (2015) Cristina Fernández in national By ratifying the COP-21 agreement in October 2016, the European Union reaffirmed its intent to limit the effects of climate change. UNEMPLOYMENT: UNEMPLOYMENT: elections

It has also produced original research

Argentina

–8.0

the interaction of markets and sources 9.6%the (2015) 5.1% (April 2014)byon Between 1990 and 2015, EU28 reduced greenhouse-gas emissions 22%, largely by replacing fossil fuels with renewable TOPtoEXPORT TOP of energy. It is on track meet itsCOMMODITIES: goal of ensuring that, byEXPORT 2020, at COMMODITIES: least 30% of the electricity comes from renewables. governments insupply securing Asia’s maritime

Crude petroleum (48.4% of

CONSUMER PRICES INDICATOR (END OF PERIOD PERCENTAGE CHANGE)

2014

6.41%

BRAZIL

GERMANY

WIND

MALAYSIA SINGAPORE

five-year interval: 1992–97, 1993–98, etc., until 2012–17

Bay of Bengal

0 -100

0 INDONESIA

100

200

AURITIUS

44.7

300

400

23.0

500

9.1

14.3

600

10.2

700

China coal consumption change (Mtoe)

SOLAR Indian Ocean

39.8 Indian presence

7.2

18.9

9.2

Wind

Bioenergy

18.7 6,000 5,000

500

4,000

300 800

3,000

100

2,000 1,000

200

6.8

TEMPERATURE AND FLOODING CHANGES IN EUROPE Naval base

Temperature rise above pre-industrial levels (°C)*

*Selec

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Solar

Chinese presence

Ports/refuelling stations

Greenhouse-gas emissions (million tonnes of CO2 equivalent)

Hydropower

400

mption Island)

IUS (Agalega Islands)

Electricity capacity (GW)

2015

1,000

FRANCE ITALYEach dotUK represents a

SPAIN

2014

2012–2017

2013

BRUNEI

2,000

2012

VIETNAM

2011

MALDIVES

Port Blair

2010

Colombo

Kankesanthurai Trincomalee SRI LANKA Hambantota

EU RENEWABLES ELECTRICITY CAPACITY AND GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS, 2006–15

2009

CAMBODIA

Kochi

EU COUNTRIES WITH HIGHEST INSTALLED WIND AND SOLAR CAPACITY, 2015 (GW)

PHILIPPINES

2008

THAILAND

Karwar

3,000

programme of research.

2007

LAOS

Visakhapatnam

4,000

2006

Mumbai

MYANMAR Sittwe

Zhanjiang

topic that will be examined in depth in our

2009

Chinese South Sea Fleet HQ

2008

BHUTAN

Street Journal; ILO; OEC; Inter-American Development Bank; BBC; Telegraph; Reuters; IISS BANGLADESH

Arabian Sea

Chile Arge ntina

VENEZUELA

Chittagong

Colombia Ecuador 150

2007

NEPAL

Venezuela

2006

INDIA

CHINA

World CO2 emissions change (MtCO2)

68.54%

Gwadar Karachi

PAKISTAN

statecraft; the durability of global financial BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: Since 1992, change in Chinese coal consumption US$ –8.430bn (2015)China US$United –1.711bn (2015) States Europe governance; the global energy transition; has correlated with change CO2 emissions Brazilin global UNEMPLOYMENT: UNEMPLOYMENT: 120 6.5% (2015) 7% (April 2014) and the rise of data power. The IISS 10.67% (7.15%) 6,000 Bolivia Negative growth TOP EXPORT COMMODITIES: TOP EXPORT COMMODITIES: 90 Paraguay 2002–2007 Positive growth; Copper ore, refined copper, Crude petroleum (85% of programme in geo-economics seeks to below historical animal meal, zinc, lead, total exports), methyl alcohol, 4.23% (3.42%) average natural gas iron ore, steel, fertilisers 60 narrow each of these five categories into Uruguay 5,000 Positive growth; TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS: above historical a well-defined, manageable research China, United States, United States, India, 30 average 180.87% (720.04%) Switzerland China n.k. (24.95%)

PERU

3.22%

ARGENTINA

SHA IN TO

increased use of economic tools in PERU NEW Suriname INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE POWER VENEZUELA AND FUELS, 2006–15 (US$BN)

2015 (2016 forecast)

23.92%

Crude petroleum, motor

exports), coal, vehicle parts, lorries almost enough installed renewables capacity Some EU countries total invested billions of euros in windvehicles, and solar energy, acquiring energy trade. coffee, flowers, products of and trucks, statisticalPROJECTED GROWTH to meet peak demand. Indeed, in good conditions, these countries covered a huge share of their power needs with wind and polymerisation, bananas machine cards, televisionOUTLOOK: LATIN AMERICA, 2016 receivers TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS: solar energy. Yet average utilisation rates remainedbroadcast low, indicating a disconnect between the scale of the investment and its United States, China, TOP the EXPORT DESTINATIONS: Geo-economics and strategy. effects. Nonetheless, beyond its environmental impact, shift towards renewables reduced the EU’s reliance onExploring energy Panama United States, Canada, imports, a potentially important consideration in an China unstable politicalthe and trajectory security environment. Mexico of globalisation; the

Number of severe floods**

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

Rules. The term ‘rules-based order’ entered the English lexicon in the late 1990s when Western governments lobbied for China to be included in the institutions formed by Western powers after the Second World War. Now, with the US in a more transactional mood and more inwardly focused, and with China intent on writing some rules of its own and strong enough to challenge those devised by others, the rules-based

17 RUSSIA

order is under strain. Many other powers, in other regions, are also pursuing a form of ‘strategic self-determination’ that has unsettled the previous Western-based international consensus. IISS research seeks to provide greater clarity on how rules, alliances and institutions will develop, and how these will affect the current order, and shape future relationships.

External backers: Qatar Sudan Turkey

order of some 50 states require adjustment

Conventions and other international rules remain pertinent in light of changes in the character of conflict and the diversity of its protagonists. We are also examining

KARAMA OPERATION

External backers: BruneiArabia, UAE 1 Saudi Egypt,

Government of National Salvation (GNS)

2015 LIBYAN POLITICAL AGREEMENT (LPA)

General National Congress (GNC)

12 CHINA

Defence budget: US$788m*

Libyan National 3 Indonesia Army (LNA)

Defence budget: US$8.98bn

13 INDIA

4 Laos President

HIGH COUNCIL OF STATE (HCOS)

Part of GNC members

Defence budget: US$324m

2 Cambodia

Chairman: Khaled Mishri

for the current one, encompassing more than 195 states, and whether the Geneva

FAJR LIBYA OPERATION

Misrata militias, lslamist and revolutionary groups

International law. We are exploring whether laws designed for an international

General Khalifa Haftar

GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL ACCORD (GNA)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES (HoR)

Rivalries Alliance/support

Interim Government

Presidency Council (PC)

CAMBODIA 2

VIETNAM 10

MALAYSIA 1 BRU 5 8 SINGAPORE

Prime budget: Minister Defence US$3.48bn Abdullah al Thinni

6 Myanmar

Justice and Construction Party (JCP, Muslim Brotherhood) Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj

THAILAND 9

Agila Saleh Defence budget: n.k.

5 Malaysia

MYANMAR 6 LAOS 4

Western branches of the National Oil Corporation (NOC), Central Bank of Libya (CBL), Libyan Investment Authority (LIA)

Eastern branches of the

3 INDONESI

Defence budget: US$2.10bn National Oil Corporation

(NOC), Central Bank of Libya (CBL), Libyan 7 Philippines Investment Authority (LIA)

Defence budget: US$2.78bn

8 Singapore

Indian Ocean

the consequences of the expansion of international law over the past 25 years, and to what extent statecraft as practised, and international law as developed, are in conflict. International alliances. The IISS is examining how regional and international political and economic alliances are shifting, and what role middle powers may choose to play in the competition over the present and future rules of the international order. The US is in the process of reappraising its alliance relationships; CHINA

whether China chooses to acquire allies

TAIWAN

as the US did remains an open question, while other ad hoc coalitions need to

LAOS

be assessed.

South China Sea

Althea (Bosnia Herzegovina) Launched December 2004

EUBAM Moldova and Ukraine *

THAILAND

EUAM Ukraine (from Nov 2014)

EUMM Georgia (from Oct 2008)

Subic Bay

CAMBODIA VIETNAM

Laem Chabang Sattahip

MALAYSIA

Johor

MALACCA STRAIT

EUBAM Libya (from May 2013)

Dumai Jambi

EUPOL COPPS/ SINGAPORE Teliu Palestian Territories Bayur (from Nov 2005) Banten

Jakarta

EUAM Iraq SUNDA STRAIT (from Oct 2017)

Sunda Kelepa

EUCAP Sahel Mali (from Jan 2015)

BRUNEI

MALAYSIA Pontianak

Lahad Datu

Tawau

in the domain of arms control and

Cebu

proliferation, as they have in others. The IISS is exploring how new and evolving

Davao

technologies may be subject to armscontrol negotiations and agreement.

General Santos

Our work will also explore how emergent technologies will challenge existing

Balikpapan

INDONESIA

verification of arms-control agreements

Major shipping routes

Banjarmasin Cirebon Tanjung Emas

and how, on the other hand, they may

Medium-sized ports MakassarLarge ports Tri-border area

enable new kinds. It will also examine the implications of new conventional

Tanjung Tanjung Intan Priok

systems with strategic effects hitherto only LOMBOK STRAIT

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) – in force from 2018

Economic Partnership (RCEP) – negotiations ongoing Laos

Zamboanga Sandakan

Kota Kinabalu Labuan

Gresik Surabaya

Ports: Sekupang,EU Batu Ampar and Tanjung Uban NAVFOR Somalia EUCAP Sahel Niger Launched December 2008 (from July 2012) Regional Comprehensive Japan

China

advances promise to disrupt old certainties

PHILIPPINES

Iloilo

Cai Mep

EUBAMLumut Rafah Tanjung Belawan (from NovKlang 2005)Pelepas

EUNAVFOR MED Operation Sophia Launched June 2015

EUTM RCA (preceeded by EUFOR RCA and EUMAM

Batangas

Sepangar Bay Penang

Arms control. Rapid technological

Manila

Ho Chi Minh City

Map Ta Phut

EULEX Kosovo (Launched June 2016)

EUTM Mali Launched February 2013

Da Nang

Bangkok

EUCAP Somalia

Philippines Australia (launched July 2012

as EUCAP NESTOR)

Singapore

Chile

Peru

possessed by nuclear weapons.

spending has also risen, along with gross national income. The US remains the highest spender in R&D, but has found itself in growing competition with China over the past few years, which is quickly closing the gap in R&D spending – the backbone of innovation.

‘For 60 years, the International Institute PATENT APPLICATIONS, 2004−16 for Strategic Studies has helped to shape the international agenda on the most pressing security issues.’ Number of applications

JAPAN

CHINA

1,500,000

1,200,000

2011

OF PATENTS: China’s total number of patent applications in 2016 represents more than the US, Japan, Republic of Korea and the European Patent Office combined (42.8% of total applications worldwide).

Brazil 28,010 Russian Federation 41,587

India 45,057

China overtakes the United States in patent applications

TOTAL PATENT APPLICATIONS 2016

900,000 600,000

US 605,571

2009

European Patent Office 159,358

in patent applications

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

300,000 China overtakes Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Japan 0

China 1,338,503

The IISS is committed to promoting free, transparent and respectful strategic R&D SPENDING, 2004−16 debate in both public and private forums, Million US$ CHINA

JAPAN

and to extending the values and principles 500,000

2013

China overtakes the European Union in R&D sp spending

of original and well-reasoned strategic

400,000

discussion and policy innovation

300,000

internationally with our three key

200,000 audiences, namely: governments, the

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

The Trustees of the IISS ensure that all

CHINA IS THE LEADING COUNTRY IN TERMS OF HIGH-TECHNOLOGY EXPORTS IN THE WORLD: In 2016, Chinese high-tech exports were three times higher than those of the US in current US dollars. In descending order, the top five high-tech exporters in 2016 were: China, Germany, US, Singapore and the Republic of Korea. High-tech exports are products with high R&D intensity, such as computers, aerospace materials and equipment, scientific instruments, electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals.

2008

private sector, and the expert and 100,000 opinion-forming communities. 0

Japan 318,381

Republic of Korea 208,830

Brazil US$9.78bn

China overtakes Japan in R&D spending

India US$13.34bn

Euro area US$501.89bn

fundraising by the IISS with governments, private companies, foundations and high GROSS NATIONAL INCOME, 2004−16 net worth individuals is consistent with Million US$ the Institute’s

values ofCHINA independence JAPAN

2014

25,000,000 and excellence. The Trustees’ oversight

Japan US$92.88bn

We earn our

China overtakes the EU in revenue from the sale gross national income

20,000,000 of fundraising is maintained with the

our databases and publications, host-

twin aims of guaranteeing the Institute’s 15,000,000

nation support for conferences, corporate

independence of thought and analysis, as

2013 sponsorship, research work, consultancy,

well as the Institute’s effectiveness as a

and donations from private individuals the US in

10,000,000 5,000,000

2016

2015

2014

income

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

produces analysis and exerts influence.

2007

0 environment.

2006

gross national and foundations. The IISS generates facts,

2005

China US$496bn

Republic of Korea US$118.36bn

China overtakes

strategic actor in a complex international 2004

HIGHTECHNOLOGY EXPORTS 2004−16

*No 2016 data available for China

Singapore US$126.32bn

US$153.12bn

‘ As an ardent follower of the work of this Institution, I have watched with keen interest and great admiration how it has gained worldwide recognition as a fountain of objective, balanced knowledge and analysis of global issues. I can confidently state that this Institution has contributed enormously to the development of the body of knowledge in international affairs, as well as in researching on global, political and military conflicts.’ Mokgweetsi Masisi, President of Botswana

‘ The IISS always proves itself a strategic asset when it’s time for rigorous thinking.’ James Mattis, former US Secretary of Defense NICARAGUA

Norte de Santander

COSTA RICA

Tibu El Tarra Sardinita 13,686 4,301 4,112

International forces Operation Barkhane MINUSMA FC-G5S

CÓRDOBA

PANAMA

NORTE DE SANTANDER

VENEZUELA

ARAUCA

ANTIOQUIA

Cauca El Tambo 6,661

Bogotá

Algiers Accord Signatories

Nariño CAUCA Tumaco

19,517

El Charco Barbacoas

4,631

4,590

NARIÑO

BRAZIL

CAQUETÁ Putumayo Puesto Valle del Asis Guamuez 9,665 4,123

Extremist groups JNIM ISIS–GS

ECUADOR PUTUMAYO

Orito 3,970

Government of Mali

Coca cultivation (ha), by municipality, 2017 10 most violent municipalities, 2015–18 Most violent departments, 2018

PERU

Coordination of Movements for the Azawad (CMA, separatist groups)

T-15 IFV T-16 ARV

Ford Foundation

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T-14 MBT

Platform (Pro-government groups)

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Supports Targets

Self-defence groups

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