IISS Manama Dialogue 2023

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

IISS Manama Dialogue

19TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMIT | 17–19 NOVEMBER 2023 | BAHRAIN

The International Institute for Strategic Studies

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© March 2024 The International Institute for Strategic Studies

Executive Chairman Sir John Chipman

Editor Laith Alajlouni, Hasan Alhasan

Arabic Editor Laith Alajlouni, Hasan Alhasan

Editorial Christopher Harder, Michael Marsden

Production Alessandra Beluffi, Ravi Gopar, Jade Panganiban, James Parker, Kelly Verity

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the Institute.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute are international and its membership is drawn from over 90 countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government, any group of governments or any political or other organisation. The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new perspectives to the strategic debate.

Foreword .

Agenda

Executive summary

IISS Manama Dialogue Young Leaders’ Programme .

Press coverage

HRH Prince Salman Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa, Crown Prince, Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces and Prime Minister, Kingdom of Bahrain

Foreword

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is pleased to share this summary of the proceedings of the IISS Manama Dialogue 2023: 19th Regional Security Summit, which was held from 17 to 19 November 2023 in the Kingdom of Bahrain.

Since its inception in 2004, the IISS Manama Dialogue has become a central element in the Middle East’s security architecture. It is where national leaders and ministers from the Middle East, North America, Europe, Asia and Africa make major policy statements. Supported by senior officials, they are also offered a bespoke occasion to consult bilaterally and multilaterally on the most pressing security and foreign-policy challenges facing the Middle East.

More than 560 delegates from 56 countries participated, which included 51 government delegations. The IISS facilitated 73 bilateral meetings for government delegations. There were many more arranged directly between delegations. Bilateral and multilateral engagement is one of the Dialogue’s two core functions that contribute to fruitful policy discussion. The other is plenary sessions, which provide the opportunity for government officials publicly to explain policies that are scrutinised by experts and media delegates participating in the Dialogue.

Thirty senior journalists representing major regional and global outlets attended. Alongside them, about 70 other media

professionals provided important coverage and scrutiny. The Manama Dialogue Young Leaders’ Programme was convened for the fifth time, with 27 regional young leaders attending. The IISS thanks the United States Embassy in Bahrain for its funding support and hopes, if the programme is to continue, that regional governments will also lend their support.

The theme of the Dialogue was ‘The Risks and Rewards of Strategic Diversification’, which served to guide consideration of a variety of issues including global competition; digital technologies applied to national security; economic statecraft; and war, diplomacy and attempts at regional de-escalation. The latter was especially important because of Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack on Israel and the ensuing war in Gaza. In his opening remarks, reflecting on the theme of the Dialogue, Sir John Chipman, Executive Chairman, IISS, noted that: ‘Strategic hedging, rather like financial hedging, requires active portfolio management. Political investments can turn sour. The value of certain asset classes can shift.’

HRH Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa, Crown Prince, Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces and Prime Minister, Kingdom of Bahrain, gave the keynote address. It was delivered with passion; the content was acutely perceptive. The war in Gaza dominated: ‘Preserving this path to peace will demand strong leadership from us in the region and primarily from the great powers.’ He emphasised: ‘Military conflict or use of force cannot be the final arbiter in international disagreement. Diplomacy and international law must win.’

The IISS thanks all government and non-government participants for their active contribution to the 19th IISS Manama Dialogue. The IISS is, as always, immensely grateful to the Kingdom of Bahrain, its Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other government departments and agencies for their tireless support, and particularly for the excellent cooperation that delivered an exceptional Dialogue in an exceptional time.

Sir Tom Beckett Executive Director, IISS–Middle East

HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud, Chairman of the Board, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies; former Director of General Intelligence Directorate, Saudi Arabia

Agenda

Friday 17 November

BILATERAL MEETINGS BETWEEN MINISTERS AND OFFICIALS

SPECIAL SESSION I DETERRING AND ENGAGING IRAN

Chair: Emile Hokayem, Director of Regional Security and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS

Enrique Mora

Deputy Secretary-General for Political Affairs, European External Action Service, European Union

Hossam Zaki

Assistant Secretary-General and Chief of Cabinet, Arab League

Dr Khalid Fahad Al Khater

Director of Policy Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Qatar

Air Marshal Martin Sampson

Defence Senior Advisor to the Middle East and North Africa, United Kingdom

SPECIAL SESSION II

DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES AND NATIONAL SECURITY

Chair: Sir Tom Beckett, Executive Director, IISS–Middle East

George Barnes

Former Deputy Director, National Security Agency, United States

Sir Jeremy Fleming

Former Director, Government Communications Headquarters, UK

OPENING RECEPTION

KEYNOTE ADDRESS & OPENING DINNER

Introductory remarks by Sir John Chipman, Executive Chairman, IISS

HRH Prince Salman Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa Crown Prince, Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces and Prime Minister, Kingdom of Bahrain

Saturday 18 November

OPENING OF THE SUMMIT

Welcome remarks by Dr Bastian Giegerich,  Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

FIRST PLENARY SESSION

WAR, DIPLOMACY AND DE-ESCALATION

Chair: Dr Bastian Giegerich, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Ayman Safadi

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, Jordan

Waleed al-Khuraiji

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia

Brett McGurk

Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, National Security Council, US

Josep Borrell Fontelles

High Representative and Vice President, European Commission, EU

SECOND PLENARY SESSION

NAVIGATING GLOBAL COMPETITION

Chair: Sir John Chipman, Executive Chairman, IISS

Dr Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani

Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

Dr Anwar Gargash

Diplomatic Advisor to the President, United Arab Emirates

Dr Tobias Lindner

Minister of State, Federal Foreign Office, Germany

THIRD PLENARY SESSION

CAPABILITIES AND STRATEGY

Chair: Dr Bastian Giegerich, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Dr Khalid Al Biyari

Assistant Minister of Defense for Executive Affairs, Saudi Arabia

Admiral Rob Bauer

Chair of the Military Committee, NATO

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin

Chief of the Defence Staff, UK

FOURTH PLENARY SESSION

NEW INITIATIVES FOR REGIONAL PEACE

Chair: Sir John Chipman, Executive Chairman, IISS

HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud

Chairman of the Board, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies; former Director of General Intelligence Directorate, Saudi Arabia

Dr Ahmed Aboul Gheit

Secretary-General of the Arab League

The Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon

Minister of State for the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, Commonwealth and United Nations, UK

Sunday 19 November

FIFTH PLENARY SESSION

THE POLITICS OF ENERGY SECURITY

Chair: Dr Bastian Giegerich, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Jasem Albudaiwi

Secretary-General, Gulf Cooperation Council

Osama Mobarez

Secretary-General, East Mediterranean Gas Forum

Amos Hochstein

Deputy Assistant and Senior Advisor to the President for Energy and Investment, US

Dr Thanos Dokos

National Security Advisor, Greece

CONCLUDING PLENARY SESSION

THE FUTURE MIDDLE EAST

Chair: Dr Bastian Giegerich, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Emile Hokayem

Director of Regional Security and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS

Rym Momtaz

Consultant Research Fellow for European Foreign Policy and Security, IISS

Dr Hasan Alhasan

Research Fellow for Middle East Policy, IISS–Middle East

John Raine

Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence, IISS

GULF BAILOUT DIPLOMACY: AID AS ECONOMIC STATECRAFT IN A TURBULENT REGION

Chair: Robert Ward, Japan Chair and Director of Geo-Economics and Strategy, IISS

Dr Ryadh Alkhareif

Deputy Minister for International Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Saudi Arabia

Dr Hasan Alhasan

Research Fellow for Middle East Policy, IISS–Middle East

Dr Roberta Gatti

Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa, World Bank

Ayman Safadi, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, Jordan

Sir John Chipman, Executive Chairman, IISS

Executive summary

Introductory remarks by Sir John Chipman, Executive Chairman, IISS

Welcome to the 19th IISS Manama Dialogue in the Kingdom of Bahrain. It is an honour to open this Dialogue in my new capacity as Executive Chairman of the IISS, and it is a source of additional pride to me that my successor is Director-General and Chief Executive Dr Bastian Giegerich, who won a global competition for the role, having worked for many years in the senior management of the IISS. I can assure this audience and our many friends throughout the region who could not be with us today that there has not been regime change at the IISS. We know how to divide our labours and how to join forces. The result will be widened executive leadership at the IISS; it will ensure our unique strategic culture is maintained. We will become even more effective in generating data, producing analysis and exerting influence on the key issues of war, power and rules for our core international constituency of government, the corporate sector, and the expert and opinionforming communities. We shall do so with our international staff from an international perspective and with international reach. The IISS Middle East office in Bahrain, the Manama Dialogue, will continue as vital generators of data and ideas that contribute to

more detailed understanding of geopolitical and geo-economic issues, and therefore more astute diplomacy and international policy. It’s useful to recall the origins of this IISS Manama Dialogue and of our presence here. It start- ed with a conversation I was fortunate to have with His Highness the Crown Prince of Bahrain in London early this century. I noted that then, occasionally, leaders, foreign ministers, defence ministers and national-security advisers from the Middle East would speak in Western capitals, and sometimes Europeans, North Americans and Asians would come to the Middle East for talks. However, there was no institute in the Middle East where the voices of the region had an annual platform to project their strategic thinking to a wider audience. His answer was, ‘Great idea. Talk to our foreign minister’, who was then Sheikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khalifa. A year or so later, the IISS Gulf Dialogue that became the IISS Manama Dialogue was born. Every worthy ambition begins with a conceit. It was perhaps a conceit that we could aim to gather, in the Middle East, a security establishment of the region under our auspices. But it worked. And this Dialogue has continued to grow. Our high ambition for this summit persists, and we will be fully celebrating it at the 20th-anniversary Dialogue held here next year. This must persist as the essential platform for dynamic diplomacy on Middle East security. We live in an age of thinking tactically. This Dialogue was established to sustain the art of thinking strategically. I want to thank His Majesty King Hamad bin Isa bin Salman Al Khalifa and His Royal Highness Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister, for their vision, their trust and their un- flagging commitment to the IISS to work here in Manama to advance and support the cause of international peace and security. But how sad that this year we meet in such tragic circumstances: a horrific terror attack by Hamas on 7 October resulting in an Israeli decision to pursue a maximalist goal to eliminate Hamas that in turn may risk further escalation involving other states and other non-state actors. The Middle East moved from a process of diplomatic reconciliation, military de-escalation and new forms of eco- nomic cooperation to a dramatic revival of terror tactics,

disastrous war, humanitarian catastrophe and even new sources of rage that may have generational effects. Shuttle diplomacy by Arab states, Europeans, Asians, Africans and others has been exercised at an un- precedented pace. International communiqués are being signed, summit declarations made, United Nations resolutions debated. Meanwhile, non-state actors are overtly testing state tolerances for their narrower aims, and big states are deploying force to the region to contain a multiplicity of threats.

The United States is now in the strange strategic position of having simultaneously to deter Iran from escalating, and deter Israel from escalating; and to deter Iran, it may have to deter Israel, and to deter Israel, it must deter Iran. Dynamic diplomacy is now required to create the conditions for a more stable outcome. When multilateral organisations are too large or too slow, it is vital that a coalition of the willing be formed to address, at the speed of relevance, urgent matters. In my personal view, there’s a specific issue that key countries must address, which we should discuss at this Dialogue. There’s a need to begin, somehow, to compose an administration-in-waiting for Gaza that can assume authority once the war ends; and to end the war early, the shape and composition of that administration must be seen to be believed, and once believed, take over. All this is happening at a time when leaders in this region are assessing the risk and opportunities of strategic diversification, hence the theme of this 19th Dialogue. As I’ve said before, moving from non-alignment to multi-alignment can be wise. Better to have many friends than only a few. Depending on only one supplier of security and defence can be risky. Strategic hedging is a natural choice in an uncertain world. But strategic hedging, rather like financial hedging, requires active portfolio management. Political investments can turn sour. The value of certain asset classes can shift. Right now, Russia’s strategic currency is in freefall. Soon, some countries will realise that they are perhaps a bit overweight and will need to adjust their strategic portfolio accordingly. Others will decide that deepening trusted relationships rather than widening experimentally to others is a safer strategic investment. Small countries must be especially canny in

the management of their relationships. Therefore, it’s splendid that I can introduce the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Bahrain as our keynote speaker this evening. His Royal Highness is leading the government here, supported by Team Bahrain, a group of the best and the brightest, committed to working at speed and with sometimes stunning effect. The country’s approach to the COVID19 pandemic was exemplary, professional and efficient. Under the Fiscal Balance Programme launched in 2018 to achieve a balanced budget, Bahrain has introduced taxes, reformed subsidies and reined in spending. Bahrain’s 2023–24 budget expects a budget deficit of less than 1% of GDP in 2024. Labour reform has picked up pace. Bahrain has embarked on several strategic projects to stimulate the economy. A new airport, a state-of-the-art amphitheatre, a sixth line of production at Bahrain’s aluminium smelter, Alba, making it the largest smelter outside of China. It has embraced new technologies in all fields, including government delivery. Bahrain and the United States signed a Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement, CSIPA, on 13 September 2023. It affirmed the desire of both sides to expand their defence and security cooperation, trade and investment ties, and collaboration in science and technology. It signalled the commitment to

Sir John Chipman, Executive Chairman, IISS

work together to help deter and confront any external aggression against the territorial integrity of any of the parties. As the first agreement of its kind in the region, the CSIPA is an important milestone in US–Bahraini relations. It could constitute a model for deepening US relations across the region. These were all strategic decisions. The content of good strategy is assured by the way in which strategy is conceived. Bad strategy that is conducted with a hot head and a cold heart inevitably leads to misfortune. Good strategy can only be crafted with a cool head and a warm heart. We have such a strategist with us today. He insists that accurate data be the source of informed decisions, has made empathy his guiding principle, good governance his mission, and savvy execution the inspiration for further ambition in the service of his nation. In other words, he is a leader. Your Royal Highness, the floor is yours.

Keynote address

Crown Prince, Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces and Prime Minister, Kingdom of Bahrain, HRH Prince Salman Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa delivered the keynote speech at the opening session. HRH remarked that the international order, which had appeared to be ‘fully functioning’, has ‘suddenly, after COVID, looked a little bit shaky’. HRH noted that although he had planned to address the CSIPA that the Kingdom of Bahrain had signed with the United States in September 2023, he would instead turn his attention to the war in Gaza, which ‘must take precedence’.

Prince Salman noted the moral obligation to protect innocent lives in both Islam and Judaism, and the failure of ‘both sides in this conflict’, Hamas and Israel, to live up to it. HRH described the difficult humanitarian situation in Gaza as ‘intolerable’, adding that ‘we must do everything in our power to stop it’. HRH condemned Hamas for the 7 October attacks and capture of civilian hostages ‘unequivocally’, describing them as ‘horrific’ and ‘indiscriminate’. HRH also condemned Israel’s air campaign ‘that resulted in the death of over 11,000 people in Gaza, 4,700 of which are children’, at the time his speech was delivered. HRH described both Hamas’s and Israel’s actions as ‘reprehensible’ and called on them to stop.

HRH then suggested two courses of action to achieve ‘a break in hostilities’. Firstly, HRH called for the ‘release [of] women and children on both sides, non-combatants, innocents’. He called on Hamas to ‘release the hostages’, noting that he believed no other Arab leader had called on Hamas to do so. Secondly, HRH called on ‘international law to be fully implemented in the conduct of war’ and ‘to allow the access of humanitarian aid’. HRH underlined the need to support medical facilities and ensure the provision of basic humanitarian supplies in Gaza.

Recalling that the conflict did not begin on 7 October but that the events of that day were only the latest escalation in a longstanding conflict, HRH emphasised that ‘no real security will ever be realised until a real two-state solution is found’. This, he added, would ‘demand strong leadership from us in the region’ and the United States, which he described as ‘indispensable in leading this process’.

Prince Salman proposed several red lines ‘somewhat along the lines of the Tokyo Declaration’. He emphasised that ‘there must be no forced displacement of Palestinians in Gaza, now or ever’, ‘no reoccupation’, ‘no reduction in Gaza’s territory’, and ‘no terrorism directed from Gaza against the Israeli public’. He noted that while

HRH Prince Salman Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa, Crown Prince, Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces and Prime Minister, Kingdom of Bahrain

the Palestinian Authority is ‘the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people today’, he supported President Mahmoud Abbas’s call for elections. HRH suggested that the elections would ‘lead to a strong, unified leadership across Gaza and the West Bank’ that can act as ‘a serious interlocutor and partner in delivering a just and lasting peace with a viable and independent Palestinian state as its goal, and also deliver security and stability to its Israeli neighbour’.

Prince Salman warned that failing to find a lasting two-state solution and ‘allowing the base rules of war to govern the outcomes here in the Middle East’ would lead to the erosion of the international rules-based order. Whether in Gaza or Russia and Ukraine, he added, ‘military conflict or use of force cannot be the final arbiter in international disagreement’. HRH warned that the erosion of international institutions will lead to an international system in which powerful states impose their will on weaker states. Instability will be global, not just regional.

Prince Salman ended on a note of caution. ‘The Russian invasion of Afghanistan created al-Qaeda, the invasion of Iraq allowed ISIS (the Islamic State) to flourish in the vacuum. Think what this [current situation in Gaza] will create in the age of social media.’

HRH Prince Salman Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa giving the keynote address

Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, Jordan

First plenary session: war, diplomacy and de-escalation

The first plenary session focused on the Israel–Hamas war and how diplomacy can be used as a tool to de-escalate the conflict.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, Jordan, Ayman Safadi discussed the dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza, the high number of civilian casualties and the disproportionate impact on children. He criticised Israel’s military actions, describing them as blatant aggression and not self-defence, and highlighted the international-law violations and the global community’s insufficient response to the crisis.

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia, Waleed al-Khuraiji touched upon the crisis in Palestine, the necessity for international intervention and the broader implications of regional conflicts on international security and peace. Al-Khuraiji condemned the escalation of violence by Israeli occupation forces, the violation of international laws and the humanitarian crisis resulting from the conflict. He emphasised the Kingdom’s efforts in mobilising international support for a ceasefire, humanitarian aid and a long-term peace process based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine.

Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, National Security Council, US, Brett McGurk outlined President Joe Biden’s

Ayman Safadi, Deputy

regional strategy focusing on partnerships, diplomacy, deterrence and values to promote stability and peace. He highlighted US efforts to contain the Gaza conflict and provide humanitarian aid, and he condemned Hamas for instigating violence and taking hostages, urging their release as a path towards peace and aid delivery. McGurk stressed the need for a durable solution ensuring Israel’s security and a Palestinian state, with discussions on regional normalisation hinting at transformative deals. He proposed an immediate and long-term process for Gaza’s governance and regional security. He noted Biden’s initiatives, such as the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor, as steps toward a peaceful, integrated Middle East, with the conflict as an opportunity for positive regional change.

High Representative and Vice President of the European Commission, European Union, Josep Borrell Fontelles stressed diplomacy was key to transitioning from war to peace in the Middle East amidst a polarised geopolitical landscape. He acknowledged Bahrain’s role in promoting moderation and emphasised the conflict’s humanitarian and political aspects, advocating for comprehensive support beyond immediate aid to address underlying issues. Borrell expressed frustration over the stagnant two-state solution, citing expanding West Bank

(l-r): Ayman Safadi, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, Jordan; Waleed alKhuraiji, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia; Dr Bastian Giegerich, DirectorGeneral and Chief Executive, IISS; Brett McGurk, Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, National Security Council, US; Josep Borrell Fontelles, High Representative and Vice President, European Commission, EU

settlements and shrinking Palestinian territory. He urged for tangible steps toward this solution and greater involvement from Arab countries, the EU, and the international community in Gaza’s reconstruction. Borrell advocated for a future with Palestinian Authority control over Gaza, unified with the West Bank and East Jerusalem. He emphasised that lasting peace is achievable through collective effort and essential for regional and global stability.

Second plenary session: navigating global competition

The second plenary session concentrated on how regional developments, notably the Israel–Hamas war, risk exacerbating global geopolitical rivalries, which in turn could complicate international efforts to resolve crises and conflicts in the Middle East. Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain, Dr Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani outlined ‘two fundamental preconditions’ for achieving international cooperation rather than conflict: ‘a framework of shared principles and values’ and a ‘compelling long-term vision for our region’. High on the agenda, he added, was ‘finding a lasting resolution to the Palestinian–Israeli conflict’ through a ‘break in hostilities’ and provision of humanitarian assistance.

Dr Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

Diplomatic Advisor to the President, United Arab Emirates, Dr Anwar Gargash stated that ‘the unfolding situation in Gaza raises questions about the future of the international system’ and its core values. ‘The policy of containment, which has characterised the Palestinian issue for so long, has clearly failed,’ he said, underlining the need to move towards a ‘process of problem-solving’ instead. The UN Security Council’s failure over several weeks to adopt a unified position on the situation in Gaza, he suggested, was due to the divisions afflicting the international order. In turn, a ‘more turbulent international order’, he cautioned, would exacerbate competitive dynamics between the major powers in the Middle East.

Minister of State, Federal Foreign Office, Germany, Dr Tobias Lindner stated that the ‘aggression’ and ‘terror’ seen in Russia’s war in Ukraine and Hamas’s attack on Israel are testing ‘the reason and humanity of the global community’. Lindner stated that for Germany, which ‘bears historic responsibility for the Shoah’, the existence of Israel is ‘non-negotiable’. Nevertheless, ‘the task is to fight Hamas, not the Palestinian civilian population’, he cautioned. The speakers also shared the view that countries should not lose sight of the long-term future of the region and the need to resolve

Dr Anwar Gargash, Diplomatic Advisor to the President, UAE

Minister of State, Federal Foreign Office, Germany

the Israel–Palestine conflict despite differences in their priorities. Al Zayani called for an international peace conference, led by the United States, to find a lasting solution to the Israel–Palestine conflict. He also suggested that ‘building interdependence’ between states in the region would contribute to the region’s prosperity and ‘peaceful coexistence’. Meanwhile, Lindner emphasised that the ‘historic opportunity of peace between Israel and its Arab neighbours must not be destroyed’ and acknowledged the ‘important role that the Gulf states and other member states of the Arab League are playing’ in finding a lasting solution to this conflict. Gargash, while supporting the two-state solution, warned that there should not be ambiguity about what constitutes an independent Palestinian state. He also pointed out that the process should be led by the Palestinians to ensure the legitimacy of the solution.

On the question of the UAE’s growing security cooperation with China, including the first-ever joint military drill involving the UAE Air Force in Falcon Shield 2023, Gargash stressed that his country has no intention of hedging as long as the United States’ commitment to the allies in the region is firm. Similarly, on the UAE’s participation in Chinese-led multilateral organisations such as the BRICS, he emphasised that its engagement is in line with its

Dr Tobias Lindner,

re-examined foreign policy of establishing ‘links all over’ after the Arab Spring and the COVID-19 crisis.

Third plenary session: capabilities and strategy

The third plenary session dealt with the need for defence reform and its challenges, how diversifying threats complicate matters for military planners and national security budgeting, and the need for stronger strategic partnerships.

Driving the need for change is a worsening security environment. ‘We now face an arc of instability stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf of Oman,’ Chief of Defence Staff, United Kingdom, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said.

But the events of the past few months are not occurring in isolation. They are occurring at a time of rising tension in the Western Balkans, increased confrontation in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, ever more bellicose rhetoric from Tehran and Pyongyang, and a succession of coups across Africa since the start of the decade, most notably recently in Gabon and Niger.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of Defence Staff, UK

The plenary discussion raised early lessons learned by militaries from the war in Ukraine and the reality that battlefields today are not just about high-tech systems.

The Chair of the Military Committee, NATO, Admiral Rob Bauer pointed out that ‘modern warfare is just as much about bits and bots as it is about mud and blood. Armed forces around the world need to work on finding the right balance between larger volumes of low-tech and smaller volumes of high-tech weapons.’

Ukraine is not the only conflict to shape thinking, though.

Assistant Minister of Defense for Executive Affairs, Saudi Arabia, Dr Khalid Al Biyari said the country’s war in Yemen highlighted the need for integrated air and missile defence and that Saudi Arabia is bringing together air-defence forces and the air force. Saudi defence-reform efforts are also being driven by the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, with more than 300 initiatives under way to, for instance, improve efficiency of expenditure and boost local production. To help drive effective change, Al Biyari also emphasised the importance of governance reforms in the Ministry of Defense of Saudi Arabia to ensure effective and efficient management.

Bauer also made the case for stronger international cooperation, noting that NATO is trying to do so particularly in its

Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the Military Committee, NATO

southern neighbourhood. ‘With the global security environment being as volatile as it is, I believe it is time we intensify our partnerships and take them to the next level,’ he said. NATO wants to improve cooperation in its southern neighbourhood ahead of the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington. Radakin underscored the point by noting the UK is pursing partnerships such as AUKUS but also other links, some of which should assure close ties for decades to come.

The panellists also issued challenges to the defence industry. ‘I worked in the military industry myself for almost 18 years, and I think the way the military industry is structured now will not be able to cope with the changing threat profiles that we foresee,’ Al Biyari said, urging businesses to fully embrace new technology. Bauer said ‘there are a lot of things that need to improve’ when it comes to industry, but he also called on governments to worry more about effectiveness than efficiency. A similar note was struck by Radakin, who called for better partnership between government and industry. ‘The defence industry that we have may not be as agile as we would all want, but in order to create that agility, then we are going to have to provide more certainty for them to be able to adjust, and I don’t think that can be done quickly.’

Dr Khalid Al Biyari, Assistant Minister of Defense for Executive Affairs, Saudi Arabia

(l-r): HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud, Chairman of the Board, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Saudi Arabia; Dr Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary-General of the Arab League

Fourth plenary session: new initiatives for regional peace

The fourth plenary session revisited past initiatives for achieving peace between Israelis and Palestinians and explored options for a reinvigorated peace effort amid the ongoing Israel–Hamas war. Chairman of the Board, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Saudi Arabia, HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud began by decrying the ‘failure in stopping this Israeli assault that amounts to genocide in Gaza and is also coupled with the threat of using nuclear weapons’. He suggested that the failure of previous peace initiatives and UN Security Council resolutions to bear fruit was partly due to ‘unwavering US and European backing’ of Israel. He condemned both Hamas and Israel for their conduct in the war, which he described as ‘a turning point’ in the peace process. Prince Turki cautioned that ‘the Israeli nuclear threat is an open invitation to others in the region to pursue this option’.

Secretary-General of the Arab League Dr Ahmed Aboul Gheit reiterated that the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative was the only viable pathway to a solution. ‘Principally, it is land for peace. I would claim that it should have been land for peace and equal security for both.’ He pointed out that the Israeli position has evolved over the last 15 to 20 years from seeking two states living side by side

to ‘taking and acquiring the whole of Palestine, at the same time imposing themselves on the Palestinians and considering them as second-rate people living in Israel or Palestine’.

Minister of State for the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, Commonwealth and United Nations, UK, The Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon noted that ‘Israel had the right to defend itself against Hamas, against the act of terrorism that took place on 7 October’. He added that ‘Israel must respect international humanitarian law and take every possible step to minimise harm to civilians’.

The three speakers proposed various steps as necessary for a reinvigorated peace effort among Israelis and Palestinians.

Lord Ahmad emphasised the need to support the Palestinian Authority and ‘ensure there is a horizon here for the Palestinian people themselves about what comes next’. He underscored the critical role played by ‘key regional partners’ in facilitating a lasting solution leading to ‘an independent state of Palestine next to a secure and stable Israel’.

Meanwhile, Prince Turki advocated ‘working to implement [UN Security Council] resolutions’ and imposing a ‘sanctions regime’ on Israel for failing to meet international requirements. He called for ‘guarantees by the world community not just to Israel’s security’

The Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon, Minister of State for the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, Commonwealth and United Nations, UK

Dr Ahmed Aboul Gheit,

Secretary-General of

the

Arab League

but also to that of the Palestinian people, while noting the need for the Palestinians ‘to put their house in order’ and improve governance with support from the UN, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League.

Aboul Gheit pointed to efforts stemming from the Islamic Arab Summit held in Jeddah in November 2023 to persuade permanent members of the UN Security Council to push for a ceasefire in Gaza. This, he admitted, required the support of the US, which has ‘been standing with the Israelis over the last 40 days or so in a manner unprecedented’. He warned that the transfer of Palestinians from Gaza ‘is a recipe to create havoc in the Middle East, a recipe for a continuous instability and possibly military confrontations’. He recalled that Jordan’s prime minister had said that the move would constitute ‘a declaration of war’ and Gheit cautioned that pushing Palestinians to the Egyptian side of the border would raise the risk of triggering a confrontation between the Israeli and Egyptian armies.

Fifth plenary: the politics of energy security

The fifth plenary session addressed the implications of conflict for energy supplies, management of the energy transition and the possibilities of cooperation through energy connectivity.

Secretary-General, Gulf Cooperation Council, Jasem Albudaiwi underlined the Gulf states’ long-standing role as ‘reliable energy partners’. He emphasised the need to ensure ‘the security of waterways’ and warned that any disruption to them could threaten energy markets. Albudaiwi noted that the Gulf states have embraced renewable energy and announced various adoption targets for themselves. He suggested nonetheless that ‘the world needs oil and gas for the foreseeable future to meet expanding demand’. He added that, according to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2023, global energy demand will expand by 23% by 2045 and over half of global energy needs would be met by oil and gas, emphasising the need to address declining investments in the oil and gas sector.

Secretary General, East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), Osama Mobarez discussed the EMGF’s potential in fostering the collaboration needed to address the energy trilemma of security, sustainability and affordability in the region. Founded three years ago to develop gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean, the EMGF comprises eight member states, three observers and nearly 40 member companies through its Gas Industry Advisory Committee. Its work rests on three pillars: regional integration, climate change and climate action, and positioning the EMGF as a low-carbon, low-cost gas supplier.

Jasem Albudaiwi, Secretary-General, Gulf Cooperation Council

Amos Hochstein, Deputy Assistant and Senior Advisor to the President for Energy and Investment, US

Mobarez noted that since the start of the Russia–Ukraine war, the Eastern Mediterranean has increased gas supplies to Europe by 30%. Last year the EMGF launched a decarbonisation initiative to reduce emissions through harmonisation of policies, technology aggregation, financing and carbon certification. EMGF seeks to become an accredited carbon certifier and will present these plans at COP 28.

Deputy Assistant and Senior Advisor to the President for Energy and Investment, US, Amos Hochstein identified two priorities: to accelerate the energy transition as aggressively as possible, and to manage this transition to ensure continuous security of energy supply. Even after demand for fossil fuels peaks and begins to decline, significant supplies will continue to be needed. Energysupply and price shocks must be avoided, he stated.

Hochstein noted that recent US legislation to encourage investment in the transition has proved more effective than expected. The US now seeks to work with traditional oil and gas partners in the Middle East on supporting the transition. But the issue of energy justice must be addressed, since developing and middle-income countries are falling behind in investment in the energy transition. Greater cooperation and

connectivity in the energy transition in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean can support diplomatic and security cooperation, he argued.

National Security Advisor, Greece, Dr Thanos Dokos noted the mixed record of energy in supporting cooperation. He suggested nevertheless that energy could still contribute to regional security, even if this was a ‘Herculean task’ that required a shift from a zero-sum to a win-win mentality. Several elements would facilitate this: flagship projects, especially in connecting countries and regions; greater resilience of land and subsea connectivity against threats from states and non-state actors; an effective regional security architecture for the Eastern Mediterranean; and, above all, moderate and visionary leadership in the region of the kind that created the Oslo peace process.

Concluding plenary: the future Middle East

During the concluding plenary session, four IISS experts reflected on the preceding plenary sessions and offered their views on the Middle East’s trajectory. Echoing the preceding sessions, the consequences of the Israel–Hamas war on the future of the region featured prominently.

Dr Thanos Dokos, National Security Advisor, Greece

Research Fellow for Middle East Policy, IISS–Middle East, Dr Hasan Alhasan began by addressing the threat posed by the Israel–Hamas war to Saudi Arabia’s and the UAE’s ‘shared prosperity agenda’ which aims to create common interests among states as a conduit to peace in the region. He suggested that the war meant that geo-economic connectivity initiatives such as the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor have become more difficult to accomplish. He added that US reputation in the region was at an ‘all-time low’ due to its position on the Israel–Hamas war.

Consultant Research Fellow for European Foreign Policy and Security, IISS–Europe, Rym Momtaz pointed to the fact that the region ‘is the southern flank of the European Union and NATO’. She noted, however, that there was ‘almost no expectations of the EU … to play any kind of real role in the management of this war’ despite the interconnected nature of EU and regional security. ‘The offer of a geopolitical EU is in deep trouble’, she added. Momtaz also noted that despite Arab normalisation efforts last year, ‘Syria has become definitely a narco-state’ contributing to a ‘trail of drugs getting into Europe’.

Director of Regional Security and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS, Emile Hokayem noted the risk posed by

Dr Hasan Alhasan, Research Fellow for Middle East Policy, IISS–Middle East

frozen conflicts in the region, notably Libya, Syria, Yemen, Israel and Palestine, as these ‘have a tendency to explode in our faces’. On Gaza, he suggested that predominately Western-led calls for governance frameworks post-war should not distract from the immediate priority of how to achieve a ceasefire. The discussions around Gaza and the West Bank also illustrated the analytical and policy challenge of Palestine, where there is often a misconception that the two territories are fundamentally different and can be dealt with in isolation.

Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence, IISS, John Raine suggested that Israel was facing a ‘constitutional crisis’ with real questions about what the country wants on the other side of the conflict.

Questioning the assertion by the Jordanian deputy prime minister, earlier in the Dialogue, that Israel should be the only country to ‘own and solve’ the ‘mess’ it has made in Gaza, Executive Chairman, IISS, Sir John Chipman stated that ‘the problem with that attitude of mind is that if you invite a Netanyahu solution to a problem, you will get a Netanyahu solution.’ Sir John offered the example of the contact group formed to manage the Yugoslav crisis as one which could be replicated for the Israel–Hamas war

Rym Momtaz, Consultant Research Fellow for European Foreign Policy and Security, IISS–Europe

and could be composed of Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Turning to Iran, Raine said the Islamic Republic appears to be approaching the end of the influence of the 1979 revolution as its ageing leadership struggles to convince younger generations of Iranians who no longer buy into the regime’s political agenda and governance model. Meanwhile, Hokayem argued that the Israel–Hamas war has not posed ‘an existential challenge for the Iranian leadership’, nor has it led to a worsening in its relations with other regional countries. He argued that Iran was a ‘net beneficiary’ of the conflict, as it allowed Iran to escalate in a number of places – Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen – ‘without … paying a direct price’. In a similar vein, Alhasan stated that repeated attacks by pro-Iranian militias against US bases in Iraq and Syria reinforced regional perceptions of ‘US deterrence failure’ against Iran below the threshold of ‘an all-out war’.

The various challenges to Europe, NATO and the US in the region prompted several questions about China’s role and influence in the Gulf. Alhasan described China’s relationship with the Gulf as ‘multilayered’: trade and energy laid the foundation for this, followed by investment by China in the region – in particular

Emile Hokayem, Director of Regional Security and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS

the Digital Silk Road and wider Belt and Road Initiative. These were then bolstered by Chinese political and diplomatic efforts to play a visible influential role, albeit in an opportunistic fashion, while the region itself also sought to use China as a hedge and means of luring back US interest in the region. China’s emerging military relationships with the region, while concerning to the US, were nevertheless nascent and of a secondary preference in the region to US security and military partnerships.

John Raine, Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence, IISS

The concluding plenary panel at the 2023 IISS Manama Dialogue

IISS Manama Dialogue 2023

Dr

Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Bastian Giegerich,

IISS Manama Dialogue Young Leaders’ Programme

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) hosted the fifth IISS Manama Dialogue Young Leaders’ Programme (MDYLP) at the 19th IISS Manama Dialogue, which was held in Bahrain from 17 to 19 November 2023.

The MDYLP brings some of the Middle East’s brightest young strategic thinkers and leaders to the IISS Manama Dialogue to involve them in high-level debate about the current security and political challenges facing the Middle East. Twenty-seven MDYLP delegates attended the Dialogue this year. The group comprised government practitioners, academics and energy-sector leaders from Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and, for the first time, Qatar. Slightly over half of them were women. The delegates took part in activities including discussions with senior thinkers and policymakers on the margins of the IISS Manama Dialogue and a visit to the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF). They also had the opportunity to attend all elements of the IISS Manama Dialogue and to contribute actively to the debate through questions and interventions during the plenary sessions. The 2023 MDYLP programme

was made possible with the generous support of the United States Embassy in Bahrain.

Off-site visit: the CMF

The delegates took part in an opening dinner on Thursday 16 November attended by Deputy Chief of Mission, US Embassy in Bahrain, David Brownstein. They then participated in a full day of exclusive events on Friday 17 November. The delegates started their programme on Friday morning with an off-site visit to the CMF Naval Base. They were briefed by Commander, US Naval Forces Central Command, US 5th Fleet and CMF, Vice-Admiral Brad Cooper. Commodore Peter Laughton of the United Kingdom briefed the delegates on the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC). These briefings gave insights into the mandates and daily work of the CMF, which is headquartered in Bahrain. The organisers ensured that there were high-level regional representatives reflecting the home countries of the delegates. Indeed, Senior National Representatives from most of the delegates’ home countries were present at the briefing. Two of these, Commodore Rasheed AlHarbi of Saudi Arabia and Commodore Sheikh Mubarak AlSabah of Kuwait, joined their Western counter-

(l-r): Luigi di Maio, Special Representative to the Gulf, EU; Emile Hokayem, Director of Regional Security and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS

parts, including Commodore Laughton and Commodore Phillip Dennis of the UK, at a roundtable discussion to explain the CMF mandate and answer related questions from the delegates.

The discussions highlighted the evolution of maritime security threats in the region and the actions of the CMF to adapt to these new challenges. The delegates asked questions about the role of new technologies in the hands of non-state actors and the effects they have on maritime security, the geopolitical dynamics of AUKUS, and the difference in mandates between the CMF and the IMSC. The briefings were followed by a tour of Task Force 59’s uncrewed vessels.

Private roundtable discussions

After the CMF visit, the young leaders headed back to the site of the IISS Manama Dialogue, the Ritz-Carlton, where they were welcomed by the IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Dr Bastian Giegerich.

The young leaders engaged in roundtable discussions on themes related to European Union–Arab relations and ‘Great Power Competition’ in the Middle East. Special Representative to the Gulf, EU, Luigi di Maio discussed the EU policy in the region

(l-r): John Raine, Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence, IISS; Dr Hasan Alhasan, Research Fellow for Middle East Policy, IISS–Middle East

(l-r): Dr Hasan Alhasan, Research Fellow for Middle East Policy, IISS–Middle East; Emile Hokayem, Director of Regional Security and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS; Dr Bastian Giegerich, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS; Luigi di Maio, Special Representative to the Gulf, EU; Amnah Ibraheem, Research Analyst, IISS–Middle East; Laith Alajlouni, Research Associate for the Middle East Programme, IISS

and EU–GCC diplomatic and economic cooperation. Director of Regional Security and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS, Emile Hokayem followed up on Di Maio’s remarks by sharing insights into the policymaking challenges that exist in the Middle East, which make it difficult to align as a negotiating group. During a roundtable discussion on great-power competition in the Middle East, the waning role of great powers and the growing role of middle powers was highlighted by Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence, IISS, John Raine. The discussion was chaired by the Research Fellow for Middle East Policy, IISS–Middle East, Dr Hasan Alhasan and focused on GCC countries’ efforts to diversify their foreign relations to strategically hedge against the conflicting interests of the competing great powers. Assistant Director of Policy Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia, HH Prince Dr Abdulla Al Saud discussed Saudi foreign policy and how the Kingdom is interested in cooperating positively with its partners to achieve its development goals. Two young leaders delivered opening remarks. Researcher, Space Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, Rana Al Shaeri discussed international cooperation and competition in the space and sciences

fields and how that affects space-industry governance. S01 Plans Officer, Kuwait Armed Forces, Ministry of Defence, Colonel Sheikh Sabah AlSabah highlighted the need for Gulf states to develop their own capabilities and move beyond a security dependency that, although it is needed in the region to protect the free flow of energy exported to the global market, has hindered the development of Gulf states’ domestic capability to protect themselves.

Private dinner and lunch

On Saturday 18 November, the young leaders attended a private dinner to build their networks and to share their thoughts and remarks on the IISS Manama Dialogue in an informal atmosphere. The dinner featured as guest of honour Managing Director, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Michael Singh. He was joined by Ambassador to Bahrain, US, Steven Bondy. Mr Singh discussed the Israel–Hamas war with the young leaders, focusing on the US role and policy and the feasibility of a twostate solution.

On Sunday 19 November, the 2023 young leaders’ programme closed with a private lunch addressed by Minister of

The second roundtable, Manama Dialogue Young Leaders' Programme

State, Federal Foreign Office, Germany, Dr Tobias Lindner. The minister focused on leadership and balancing between planning ahead and taking a leap of faith when pursuing a career in policy and government.

Conclusion

The MDYLP delegates participated actively in private discussions but also played a part in the IISS Manama Dialogue by engaging with panel speakers. They often distinguished themselves with sharp questions and remarks during the plenary sessions, which strongly contributed to the general debate.

The 2023 edition of the MDYLP received overwhelmingly positive feedback and enthusiastic engagement from both the young leaders and the senior policymakers involved.

The young leaders praised the opportunity that the MDYLP offered for their career development, were keen to participate in an alumni network and hoped to maintain their engagement with the MDYLP in the future.

Dr Tobias Lindner, Minister of State, Federal Foreign Office, Germany

Delegates at the 2023 IISS Manama Dialogue

IISS Manama Dialogue 2023

Press coverage

Guardian

18 November 2023

Arab forces will not go to Gaza, says Jordanian minister in rebuke of Israel

Ayman Safadi says credibility of international law at stake as he clashes with senior US official over terms for humanitarian pause.

Jordan’s foreign minister has said Arab troops will not go to Gaza as he delivered a blistering criticism of Israel’s war on Hamas.

Ayman Safadi clashed with Joe Biden’s senior Middle East adviser on Saturday, saying a humanitarian pause should not be conditional on the release of hostages held by Hamas. The US envoy, Brett McGurk, said the onus was on Hamas to release hostages as a pathway

to humanitarian aid increasing and a pause in the fighting.

The pair were addressing the IISS Manama Dialogue security summit in Bahrain, where Arab anger towards Israel’s refusal to negotiate a two-state solution was repeatedly voiced.

Speaker after speaker advised Israel that it would not find security through force.

At the same event, the EU foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, indicated he believed Israel could face charges at the international criminal court, adding: ‘One horror does not justify another.’

Safadi, in a no-holds-barred attack on Israel and the cover being provided by the US, said faith in peaceful negotiation and international law was being destroyed by the west’s refusal to rein in Israel.

The credibility of international law had fallen victim to its selective application, he said. ‘If any other country in the world did a fragment of what Israel did, it would have sanctions imposed on it from every corner of the world.’

He said even those who accepted Israel was acting in self-defence ‘keep telling Israel to act within international law. It is not, so where do we go from here? Keep telling them to do it? They keep refusing to do it. People are being killed day in and day out.’

He said: ‘International law has to apply to all. The message seems to be that Israel can do whatever it wants. That is what the world is seeing, [that] Israel is above the law.’

He also disagreed with McGurk over the terms for a humanitarian ceasefire, after the latter said the release of hostages held by Hamas would lead to a surge in the delivery of humanitarian aid.

McGurk said the pathway to a significant pause in fighting was through the release of hostages. ‘If the hostages are released, you will see a significant, significant change. The onus here is on Hamas. This is the path. The surge in humanitarian aid will come when the hostages are released,’ he said.

Safadi urged Hamas to release the hostages, but said no preconditions should be set for a humanitarian pause, arguing that 2.4 million Palestinians were being held hostage by Israel in Gaza.

He refused to join the calls to liken Hamas to Islamic State. ‘Hamas did not create the conflict. The conflict created Hamas,’ he said, adding: ‘You cannot bomb an idea out of existence.

‘There will be no Arab troops going to Gaza. None. We are not going to be seen as the enemy.’

He said all Arab governments were agreed on this, and that any discussion of Gaza’s future now was impossible. ‘By

entertaining that, we are telling the Israeli government: “Do whatever you want. Go destroy Gaza. No one is stopping you and once you are done we will clean up your mess.” No, we will not.’

He said Jordan would do ‘whatever it takes to stop’ the displacement of Palestinians. ‘We will never allow that to happen; in addition to it being a war crime, it would be a direct threat to our national security.

‘All of us have to speak loud and clear about the catastrophe that the Israeli war is bringing, not just on Gaza, but on the region in general. This is not a time for mincing words. This is a time to state facts as they are.

‘Denial of food, medicine and fuel to Gazans is a war crime and we have to call it out.’

Bahrain’s crown prince, speaking at the summit on Friday, called on Hamas to release Israeli women and children held hostage and for Israel in exchange to release from its prisons Palestinian women and children who he said were non-combatants. He said there should be Palestinian elections, but did not specify a date.

Borrell said only the Palestinian Authority could be in control of Gaza after the war. Israel has insisted the authority will have no role for some years and, in a demonstration of its dislike, barred the authority’s foreign minister from travelling to Bahrain to speak.

©Guardian

Reprinted with permission

November 2023

Gulf Arab state Bahrain calls for Hamas-Israel ‘hostage trade’

The crown prince of Gulf Arab state Bahrain on Friday called for a ‘hostage trade’ between Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel in order to achieve a break in hostilities that he said could lead to an end to the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.

Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa also said that security would not be realised without a two-state solution, in which he described the United States as ‘indispensable’ in achieving.

‘It is a time for straight talking,’ he said, urging Hamas to release Israeli women and children held hostage in Gaza and for Israel in exchange to release from its prisons Palestinian women and children, who he described as non-combatants.

‘The intention is to break so people can take stock, can bury their dead, people can finally start to grieve and maybe people can start to ask themselves about the intelligence failure that led to this crisis in the first place,’ he said.

Fellow Gulf Arab state Qatar has been leading mediation efforts between the Islamist militant group and Israeli officials for the release of more than 240 hostages.

Sunni-ruled Bahrain established ties with Israel in 2020 under the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords, driven in part by shared concerns over regional power Shi’ite-majority Iran. Bahrain is an impor-

tant security partner of the United States, hosting the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet.

Bahrain’s parliament this month said, amid outrage in the Arab world over Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, that Israel’s ambassador had left the country, while its own envoy had left Israel, although it remains unclear if the Israel diplomat was expelled.

Prince Salman described the situation in Gaza as ‘intolerable’ and condemned both Hamas for its Oct. 7 attack and Israel for the ‘air campaign’ it launched in response.

He outlined what he said were red lines in the conflict, including the forced displacement of Palestinians, ‘now or ever’, an Israeli reoccupation of Gaza, and a military threat from Gaza towards Israel.

Prince Salman, speaking at the IISS Manama Dialogue, also called for Palestinian elections, once the war ends, that would lead to a ‘just and lasting peace’ that he described as the establishment of a Palestinian state which he said would also lead to security and stability for Israel.

‘This conflict has been an ongoing, open wound in the Middle East for the past 80 years,’ he said.

More than 12,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s assault on the coastal strip, according to Gaza health officials. Israeli authorities say 1,200 were killed on Oct. 7 and over 200 Israelis and foreign citizens taken hostage.

An exchange of hostages was the only way to achieve a necessary break in violence so that humanitarian aid like medicine, fuel to power medical machines, and food could be provided to the Palestinians in Gaza, Prince Salman said.

©Reuters

Reprinted with permission

Associated Press

18 November 2023

Jordan’s foreign minister offers blistering criticism of Israel as its war on Hamas rages on

Jordan’s foreign minister offered blistering criticism Saturday of Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip, describing it as ‘blatant aggression’ against Palestinian civilians that threatens to engulf the wider Middle East.

Ayman Safadi’s harsh assessment, alleging Israel was committing ‘war crimes’ by besieging the Gaza Strip and cutting off food, medicine and fuel shipments, shows how strained relations have become between Israel and Jordan – which reached a peace deal in 1994.

‘All of us have to speak loud and clear about the catastrophe that the Israeli war is bringing, not just on Gaza, but on the region in general,’ Safadi told the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Manama Dialogue summit in Bahrain. ‘This is not a time for mincing words. This is a time to state facts as they are.’

Israel did not immediately respond to Safadi’s comments, which included a call for an immediate cease-fire and end to the fighting. However, on hand was Brett McGurk, the White House’s National Security Council coordinator for the Middle East, who said that ‘a release of a large number of hostages would result in a

significant pause in fighting ... and a massive surge of humanitarian relief.’

‘There’s no returning to Oct. 6. That’s true for Israel. It’s true for Palestinians,’ McGurk said. ‘No country can live with the threats of terror like what we saw from Hamas unleashed on Oct. 7 on their border. And at the same time, Palestinians deserve, need and require safety and self-determination.’

The European Union’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, added: ‘It’s quite understandable that without the freedom of the hostages, nothing can be solved.’

Safadi later offered a sharp retort to that: ‘Israel is taking 2.3 million Palestinians hostage.’

The war began with Hamas’ unprecedented Oct. 7 attack in southern Israel. Hamas militants killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted some 240 men, women and children, taking them back into the Gaza Strip.

Israel responded with a pounding campaign of airstrikes, then a ground offensive that surrounded Gaza City to the Gaza Strip’s north. More than 11,400 Palestinians have been killed in the war, two-thirds of them women and minors, according to Palestinian health authorities. Another 2,700 have been reported missing, believed buried under rubble. The count does not differentiate between civilians and militants, and Israel says it has killed thousands of militants.

The annual Manama Dialogue in Bahrain typically focuses on Gulf Arab nations’ fears about Iran in the region, something Borrell even joked about during his remarks. This year, however, the Israel-Hamas war has taken center stage, in part as Bahrain and

the United Arab Emirates reached diplomatic recognition deals with Israel in 2020.

Friday night, Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa opened the summit with a call for a swap between Hamas and Israel for the hostages and a halt in the bloodshed.

‘You want to call it a cease-fire. You want to call it a pause. You can call it whatever you want,’ the prince said. ‘The intention is a break so people can take stock. People can bury their dead. People can finally start to grieve. And maybe people can start to ask themselves about the intelligence failure that led to this crisis in the first place.’

Speaking before the summit Saturday, Safadi described the Israeli government now led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the hardest-right coalition ever to govern the country, as apparently aiming to dislodge Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. He said that ‘will be a direct threat to our national security’ in Jordan and Egypt.

‘They all for years have been saying the only way to move forward is to kick the Palestinians out of their ancestral land and wipe the Palestinians out of the face of the Earth,’ Safadi said.

After the war, Safadi said Arab countries also would not ‘come and clean the mess after Israel.’

‘Let me be very clear. I know speaking on behalf of Jordan but having discussed this issue with many, with almost all our brethren, there’ll be no Arab troops going to Gaza. None. We’re not going to be seen as the enemy,’ he said. ‘How could anybody talk about the future of Gaza when we do not know what kind of Gaza will be left once this aggression ends?’

Safadi insisted the only way forward would be a two-state solution for the Israelis and Palestinians, even though the peace process has been moribund for years.

McGurk also offered what he described as ‘five no’s’ for the war: ‘No forced displacement, no reoccupation, no reduction in territory, no threats to Israel, no besiegement.’

Meanwhile, efforts for Israel to reach new diplomatic recognition deals with Arab nations – particularly Saudi Arabia –appear frozen.

‘We’ve been saying that the fallacy of assuming that you can parachute over the Palestinian issue to create regional peace is wrong,’ he said. ‘It will only bring disaster. And here we are. Show me who’s talking about any regional project at this war, at this point, who’s talking about integration? It’s all about war.’

McGurk, however, insisted that the Palestinians had a crucial place in any possible diplomatic deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

‘In this case, what was true before Oct. 7 is even truer now,’ he said. ‘That central issue must be addressed. And as Hamas is degraded, we are determined to help address it.’

©Associated Press

Reprinted with permission

Selected IISS publications

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, the Institute’s bimonthly journal, is a leading forum for analysis and debate of international and strategic affairs. Recent articles of interest include:

Lons, Camille and Benjamin Petrini, ‘The Crowded Red Sea’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 1, February–March 2023, pp. 57–67.

Kamil, Aya, Zuha Noor and Daniel Serwer, ‘Assessing Proliferation Risks in the Middle East’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 2, April–May 2023, pp. 141–64.

Sobelman, Daniel, ‘Houthis in the Footsteps of Hizbullah’, Survival , vol. 65, no. 3, June–July 2023, pp. 129–44.

Jenkins, John, ‘The US in the Middle East: Stupid or Merely Fallible?’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4, August–September 2023, pp. 139–52.

Cowan, James M., ‘Calibrating Engagement with the Taliban’,

Survival, vol. 65, no. 5, October–November 2023, pp. 37–41.

Simon, Steven and Jonathan Stevenson, ‘The Gaza Horror and US Policy’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 6, December 2023–January 2024, pp. 37–56.

Hokayem, Emile, ‘The Gaza War and the Region’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 6, December 2023–January 2024, pp. 57–66.

Freilich, Chuck, ‘Israel and the Palestinians: the Day After’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 6, December 2023–January 2024, pp. 67–73.

Allin, Dana, ‘Applying History: Gaza and the Twentieth Century’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 6, December 2023–January 2024, pp. 223–30.

Strategic Comments is the Institute’s online source of analysis of international security and politico-military issues. Recent articles of interest include: ‘Syria’s Frozen Conflict and a Wave of

Earthquake-related Diplomacy’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 7, April 2023.

‘The Severe Political Storm in Israel’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 8, April 2023.

‘Erdogan’s Election Victory’, Strategic Comments , vol. 29, no. 13, June 2023.

‘The State of De-dollarisation in the Gulf Region’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 14, July 2023.

‘The Domestic Political Climate in Iran’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 15, July 2023.

‘The Rising Tension Between Iraqi Kurdistan’s Two Major Parties’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 20, August 2023.

‘High Tension Between Algeria and Morocco’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 34, November 2023.

‘Egypt’s Economic Crisis and Uneasy Position in the Middle East’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 37, December 2023.

‘Azerbaijan’s Offensive in NagornoKarabakh and the Evolution of its Dispute with Armenia’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 10, December 2023.

‘Greater Consensus on Improving the Middle Corridor’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 39, December 2023.

The Armed Conflict Survey is the Institute’s annual review of political, military and humanitarian trends in active conflicts worldwide. Recent sections of interest include: Middle East and North Africa section,

including specific chapters on Egypt, Iraq, Israel–Palestinian Territories, Libya, Syria, Turkiye and Yemen, a regional analysis and a regional spotlight (focusing on the converging climate, political and food crises in North Africa).

The Armed Conflict Survey 2023 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023), pp. 96–147.

The Military Balance is the Institute’s annual assessment of military capabilities and defence economics worldwide. Region-byregion analyses cover the major military and economic trends and developments affecting security policy and the trade in weapons and other military equipment. Comprehensive tables portray key data on weapons and defence economics. Defence-expenditure trends over a ten-year period are also shown.

IISS, The Military Balance 2023 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023).

The Strategic Dossier series harnesses the Institute’s technical expertise to present detailed information on key strategic issues. Recent publications include:

IISS, Preview: Turbulence in the Eastern Mediterranean: Geopolitical, Security and Energy Dynamics (London: IISS, 2023).

IISS, China’s Belt and Road Initiative: A Geopolitical and Geo-economic Assessment (London: IISS, 2022).

IISS, Missile Dialogue Initiative (London: IISS, 2023).

The Institute’s research team also publishes free reports and assessments. These extended pieces of analysis are an indispensable resource for those who wish to understand key strategic questions in much greater depth. Recent publications include:

Kévin Thievon, New Ambitions at Sea: Naval Modernisation in the Gulf States (London: IISS, 2023).

Alberque, William et al. Mitigating the Risks of an Unconstrained Iranian Nuclear Programme (London: IISS, 2023).

Alhasan, Hasan and Camille Lons, Gulf Bailout Diplomacy: Aid as Economic Statecraft in a Turbulent Region (London: IISS, 2023).

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