Census 2020: Expectations and Challenges for Central Texas

Census 2020: Expectations and Challenges for central Texas Imagine Austin Speaker Series June 14, 2019

Ryan Robinson City Demographer Planning and Zoning Department

Presentation Themes 1. Enormous regional population growth across central Texas 2. Race and Ethnicity 3. Importance of the decennial Census 4. Hard-to-Count populations 5. The Citizenship Question 6. New methods of data collection for the 2020 7. Conclusions and Strategies

Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

“…20% of total population growth for the entire US from 2010 to 2018 occurred in Texas.”

County-level Growth and Decline

Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

Metropolitan Austin

Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

Total 2019 population ~ 2.2 million A net gain of roughly 450K since 2010 On track to reach and surpass the 3.0 million mark by 2030 City should be at about 1.0 million by 2020

Courtesy of Chris Ramser, Director of Research, Austin Chamber of Commerce, 2019.

30%

70%

Courtesy of Chris Ramser, Director of Research, Austin Chamber of Commerce, 2019.

Courtesy of Chris Ramser, Director of Research, Austin Chamber of Commerce, 2019.

Courtesy of Chris Ramser, Director of Research, Austin Chamber of Commerce, 2019.

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ZIP Code-level Growth and Decline

Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

Race and Ethnicity

Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

Counting All of this Diverse Growth will be a Challenge

Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

• Mandated by the United States Constitution, Art. I, Section 2 • Every ten years since 1790 • Next Census: April 1, 2020 • Managed by the U.S. Census Bureau 25

The Census Is Crucial • Allocation of federal funds to state and local communities - $800 billion/year • Reapportionment of Congressional districts among the states • Texas expected to gain as many as three seats

• Redistricting of state house, senate, legislative and other districts City of Austin City Council Districts Travis County Commissioners Court

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The Census Is Crucial

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Federal Funds: $800 billion • Grants to local school districts (Title I) • SNAP • Highway and public transit programs • Emergency food and shelter programs • Head Start • Women, Infants and Children (WIC) food assistance program • Programs for the elderly • Crime Victim assistance • Substance abuse prevention and treatment 28

GAO: Census 2020 “at risk” • Reduced overall funding for Census 2020 compared to Census 2010 • Including new (largely untested) online and telephone response options plus mail out/back questionnaires • Fewer, and less well-trained, Census field workers for Nonresponse Follow-up (NRFU) • Significant reductions in budget for education and outreach • Last minute addition of an untested question for Citizenship 29

Austin – Travis County Complete Count Committee • Two groups: • Steering Committee • 12-15 members • Expertise in community outreach, marketing and communications

• Leadership Council • 25-30 members • Civic, business, religious, educational, neighborhood leaders • Activate their networks to spread the word

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Final Mail Response Rates - 2010 • Nationwide • Texas • Travis County • City of Austin

74% 71% 73% 72%

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Austin Area Populations At-Risk For An Undercount • Young children (age under 5) • College Students – some 135,000 people involved in Higher-Education in Austin • The homeless – by definition, hard to find and count • Non-English speaking –residents who may be somewhat linguistically isolated, speaking Chinese, Vietnamese, or Spanish.

• Immigrants – including the undocumented • LGBTQ persons and the Disabled • Persons who distrust the Government 37

Travis County, 2019 estimates

Immigrants, n=225K

Linguistically Isolated, n=150K

Young Children, n=85K 38

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The Citizenship Question

Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

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Xavier Becerra

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Elijah Cummings

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2017 = 13.7% City at 18.7%

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New methods of data collection

Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

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Final Comments and Challenges 1. Census 2020 has been underfunded‌this shortage will be felt most acutely in their outreach and national-scaled campaign.

Housing media Affordability 2. The last minute addition of an untested Achieving significant growth of African American Citizenship question could cause unforeseen households in challenges the future isand dependent on aattracting logistical heighten pervading families children back into the City--and yet, sensewith of fear among immigrant communities, collapsing housing affordabilityundercount. across the City will make resulting in a significant this difficult.

3. Although the new use of internet and telephone response options could prove beneficial, the logistical manifestations could prove unpredictable.

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Housing Affordability Achieving significant growth of African American households in the future is dependent on attracting families with children back into the City--and yet, collapsing housing affordability across the City will make this difficult.

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