Selected Demographic Themes: Population and Job Growth, Households, and Housing Trends Zoning and Platting Commission
with the Planning Commission January 30, 2018
Ryan Robinson City Demographer Planning and Zoning Department
Selected Demographic Data Themes 1. Population and Job growth.
2. Household Dynamics. 3. Housing Trends.
Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin
Selected Demographic Data Themes 1. Population and Job growth. Texas leads the nation in population gain Urban counties are adding the most population while suburban counties are growing the fastest
Austin’s metropolitan region continues to surge in terms of population but job growth has slowed significantly City’s share of regional population growth at an all time low
Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin
Burnet
Williamson
Georgetown Taylor
Marble Falls Leander Round Rock
Hutto
Plugerville
Travis Manor
Elgin
Austin
Bee Cave Dripping Springs
Bastrop Bastrop
Hays
Buda Kyle
Smithville
Wimberley Lockhart San Marcos
Caldwell
Total 2018 population ~ 2.15 million A net gain of roughly 450K since 2010 On track to reach and surpass the 3.0 million mark by 2030
City of Austin’s share of total annual metrowide growth
48% 33%
30%
11th
Estimated Jan 1, 2018 population = ~963,000 Should reach and surpass 1.0 million by 2020 Population growth within the City and ETJ are closely following the trajectory set forth in the Imagine Austin forecast. 750,000 population gain by 2040
Jobs and Employment
Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin
Through Nov.
Courtesy of Beverly Kerr, Vice President of Research, Austin Chamber of Commerce, 2017.
Household Dynamics
Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin
Selected Demographic Data Themes 1. Population and job growth. 2. Household Dynamics. Shifting age structures A new landscape of affluence Continued stubborn socioeconomic separations Rate of diversification appears to have slowed
Geography of households with children
Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin
Roughly 20% in the Urban Core
Housing
Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin
Selected Demographic Data Themes 1. Population and job growth. 2. Household dynamics. 3. Housing Steep price increases over the past seven years Yet Austin remains relatively affordable when compared to more expensive coastal markets and other peer cities City’s share of Regional Single Family starts around 20% Multifamily deliveries are homogeneously suited for singles and young professionals…older vs newer stock ADUs, lots of activity but not exactly what we intended Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin
Housing Activity
Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin
Avery Ranch
Pearson Ranch
Landings at Wells Branch Versante
Fort Dessau
Cantarra
Pioneer Hill
The Grove at Steiner Ranch
Whisper Valley Sendero Hills
Covered Bridge Park East Colorado Crossing Easton Park Avana
Stoney Ridge
Grey Rock Goodnight Ranch Legends Way Estancia
Mueller
Franklin Grove
Canopy
Edgewick
Domain
Marc
Koenig Flats West Campus Downtown
East Austin
So. Lamar
Homestead Oaks
Net Units = 10,188
Domain Pioneer Crossing
Mueller
West Campus Downtown
East Austin
So. Lamar Lake Shore
Net Units = 10,094
Domain
Highland Mueller East Austin
Colonial Grands
Net Units = 9,378
Caliza
Austin Waters Overture
North Burnet Gateway
Bridge at Cameron
Crestview Omelettry Flora
West Campus Downtown
East Riverside
Net Units = 11,706
If Austin continues along the Imagine Austin population growth trajectory… How much housing does Austin need into the future? Over the next 10 years? Population Increment / Household Size = Units Needed… (Using the Imagine Austin Population and Jobs Forecast) • City of Austin ~ 75K to 80K (roughly 180K population increment) • Imagine Austin Study Area ~ 95K to 100K (230K pop increment) • Austin—Round Rock MSA ~ 270K to 280K (700K pop increment) Caveats: • Account for fluctuations in Vacancy Rate • Enormous variation within Overall Household Size Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson • Market conditions and Constraints City Demographer City of Austin