Selected Demographic Themes: Population and Job Growth, Households, and Housing Trends

Selected Demographic Themes: Population and Job Growth, Households, and Housing Trends Zoning and Platting Commission

with the Planning Commission January 30, 2018

Ryan Robinson City Demographer Planning and Zoning Department

Selected Demographic Data Themes 1. Population and Job growth.

2. Household Dynamics.

3. Housing Trends.

Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

Selected Demographic Data Themes 1. Population and Job growth.  Texas leads the nation in population gain  Urban counties are adding the most population while suburban counties are growing the fastest

 Austin’s metropolitan region continues to surge in terms of population but job growth has slowed significantly  City’s share of regional population growth at an all time low

Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

Burnet

Williamson

Georgetown Taylor

Marble Falls Leander Round Rock

Hutto

Plugerville

Travis Manor

Elgin

Austin

Bee Cave Dripping Springs

Bastrop Bastrop

Hays

Buda Kyle

Smithville

Wimberley Lockhart San Marcos

Caldwell

Total 2018 population ~ 2.15 million A net gain of roughly 450K since 2010 On track to reach and surpass the 3.0 million mark by 2030

City of Austin’s share of total annual metrowide growth

48% 33%

30%

11th

Estimated Jan 1, 2018 population = ~963,000 Should reach and surpass 1.0 million by 2020 Population growth within the City and ETJ are closely following the trajectory set forth in the Imagine Austin forecast.

750,000 population gain by 2040

Jobs and Employment

Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

Through Nov.

Courtesy of Beverly Kerr, Vice President of Research, Austin Chamber of Commerce, 2017.

Household Dynamics

Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

Selected Demographic Data Themes 1. Population and job growth.

2. Household Dynamics.  Shifting age structures  A new landscape of affluence  Continued stubborn socioeconomic separations  Rate of diversification appears to have slowed

 Geography of households with children

Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

Roughly 20% in the Urban Core

Housing

Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

Selected Demographic Data Themes 1. Population and job growth.

2. Household dynamics.

3. Housing  Steep price increases over the past seven years  Yet Austin remains relatively affordable when compared to more expensive coastal markets and other peer cities  City’s share of Regional Single Family starts around 20%  Multifamily deliveries are homogeneously suited for singles and young professionals…older vs newer stock  ADUs, lots of activity but not exactly what we intended Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

Housing Activity

Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson City Demographer City of Austin

Avery Ranch

Pearson Ranch

Landings at Wells Branch Versante

Fort Dessau

Cantarra

Pioneer Hill

The Grove at Steiner Ranch

Whisper Valley Sendero Hills

Covered Bridge Park East Colorado Crossing Easton Park Avana

Stoney Ridge

Grey Rock Goodnight Ranch Legends Way Estancia

Mueller

Franklin Grove

Canopy

Edgewick

Domain

Marc

Koenig Flats West Campus Downtown

East Austin

So. Lamar

Homestead Oaks

Net Units = 10,188

Domain Pioneer Crossing

Mueller

West Campus Downtown

East Austin

So. Lamar Lake Shore

Net Units = 10,094

Domain

Highland Mueller East Austin

Colonial Grands

Net Units = 9,378

Caliza

Austin Waters Overture

North Burnet Gateway

Bridge at Cameron

Crestview Omelettry Flora

West Campus Downtown

East Riverside

Net Units = 11,706

If Austin continues along the Imagine Austin population growth trajectory…

How much housing does Austin need into the future? Over the next 10 years?

Population Increment / Household Size = Units Needed…

(Using the Imagine Austin Population and Jobs Forecast) • City of Austin ~ 75K to 80K (roughly 180K population increment) • Imagine Austin Study Area ~ 95K to 100K (230K pop increment) • Austin—Round Rock MSA ~ 270K to 280K (700K pop increment) Caveats: • Account for fluctuations in Vacancy Rate • Enormous variation within Overall Household Size Selected Demographic Data Themes Ryan Robinson • Market conditions and Constraints City Demographer City of Austin