The South African economy has also struggled to create jobs. Figure 7 below compares the changes in the working-age cohort to the changes in total employment. The solid blue line shows that the working-age population has been increasing, with on average 600,000 people added to this cohort annually between 1990 and 2021. However, it is increasing at a lower and lower rate each year; this rate is shown by the grey dashed line which has declined from 3.4% growth in the working-age cohort in 1993 to 1.4% growth in 2021.26 This decline in growth is projected to continue to the furthest projection of 0.3% in 2050.26 This is in line with declining fertility rates, and increasing life expectancy, therefore fewer people are being added to this cohort over time relative to the people that are living past the age of retirement and graduating out of this cohort. The solid green line in Figure 7 represents the year-on-year increase or decrease in the total number of people employed and the dashed blue line reflects what this means in terms of the percentage year on year change in total employment. Statistics South Africa’s (Stats SA) quarterly employment statistics from 2007 to 2019 show that the number of people employed increased by just under 2 million (from 8.2 to 10.2 million), million) 34 however the working-age population increased by 6.5 million5 over the same period.26 It should also be noted that during the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic downturn, 594,000 jobs were lost in 2020, as shown by the sharp drop in the number of net annual change in employment in Figure 7.33
Figure 7: Changes in working-age population compared to total employment in South Africa
The South African economy has not been able to create enough jobs to keep up with the growing working-age population. The number of people employed increased by just under 2 million between 2007 and 2019, but the working-age population increased by 6.5 million over the same period. Source: Stats SA, 2008-2022. Quarterly employment statistics; The World Bank, 2022
Although it should be noted that South Africa’s labour force participation rate has averaged about 50% for the last 30 years,35 the economy has only been able to create jobs for about half of its economically active adults. More so, this jobs shortfall has only deepened pre-existing inequalities, concentrating unemployment among young, Black women (in particular). Even when they are employed, this cohort of workers is less secure, earns less, and often remain stuck in the unskilled labour bracket.36
5
This number is calculated by subtracting the total number of people who left the working-age cohort (those aged 65 or older) between 2007 and 2019 from the total number of people who entered the working-age cohort (those aged 15 to 64).
12
INEQUALITY AND DEMOGRAPHY
