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Sea Level Rise Could Significantly Affect Property Insurance A greater threat of flooding will lead to higher rates of property damage. By Susan Rupe
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new report predicts an alarming rise in sea level between now and 2050, bringing with it a greater threat of flooding and related property damage. The interagency report, led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, forecast that U.S. sea levels will rise at the same rate in the next 30 years as they did in the previous 100 years, sparking fears of more frequent high-tide flooding, extreme storm surges and saltwater infiltrating coastal infrastructure. The NOAA report said scientists are confident U.S. coasts will see between 10 and 12 inches of sea level rise by 2050. But not all coasts will experience the same level of rise. Over the next three decades, sea level rise is predicted to be an average of 10-14 inches for the East Coast, 14-18 42
InsuranceNewsNet Magazine » April 2022
inches for the Gulf Coast, 4-8 inches for the West Coast, 8-10 inches for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, 6-8 inches for the Hawaiian Islands, and 8-10 inches for northern Alaska. Sea level rise will create a profound shift in coastal flooding over the next 30 years by causing tide and storm surge heights to increase and reach farther inland, the report said. By 2050, “moderate” (typically damaging) flooding is expected to occur, on average, more than 10 times as often as it does today, and it can be intensified by local factors. The report described moderate flooding as currently happening about once every three years but expected to increase to about four times a year, with minor flooding (mostly disruptive or nuisance flooding) increasing from three times a year to 10 events per year. Occurrences of major flooding are predicted to happen five times more frequently in 2050 than they do in 2022. However, the report said, coastal flooding can be exacerbated by many factors that aren’t directly related to sea level rise,
such as rainfall, river discharge and coastal erosion. Rising ocean temperatures are behind this predicted rise in sea level, the report said. And with 40% of the U.S. population living within 60 miles of its coastlines, rising sea levels will impact a significant number of people. Sea level rise combined with warming ocean temperatures already made tropical cyclones and hurricanes more deadly and more destructive, a United Nations report revealed. Storm surge can now spread farther inland because of higher baseline sea level, and extreme rain events are predicted to intensify by about 7%. Flooding will be a hazard even on sunny days, the report said. The frequency of high-tide flood events in coastal cities such as New York, Washington and Miami has already doubled since 2000. Researchers said this increase in high-tide flooding has moved from what was a “rare event” into a “disruptive problem.”
How Does This Impact Insurance?
Two “macro-dynamics” are affecting
