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Table of Contents Acronyms .................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Background ............................................................................................................................................................ 4 GIS in Spatial Planning ...................................................................................................................................... 4 Project Objective ...................................................................................................................................................... 7 Criteria ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.
Proximity to Transport ......................................................................................................................... 7
2.
Healthy Neighbourhood ..................................................................................................................... 7
3.
Avoidance of Risk .................................................................................................................................. 7
4.
Proximity to Activity Centre ............................................................................................................... 7
5.
Compact Neighbourhood .................................................................................................................. 8
Data Collection and Intermediate Process ..................................................................................................... 9 Data Collection ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 Intermediate Process....................................................................................................................................... 10 1.
Proximity to Transport ...................................................................................................................... 10
2.
Healthy Neighbourhood .................................................................................................................. 10
3.
Avoidance of Risk ............................................................................................................................... 10
4.
Proximity to Activity Centre ............................................................................................................ 11
5.
Compact Neighbourhood ............................................................................................................... 11
Result and Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 23 Weighted Overlay............................................................................................................................................. 23 Final Suitability Map ........................................................................................................................................ 25 Conclusion and Recommendation ................................................................................................................. 27 Conclusion........................................................................................................................................................... 27 Recommendation ............................................................................................................................................. 27 Reference List ......................................................................................................................................................... 29
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Acronyms BCC
Bendigo City Council
BMO
Bushfire Management Overlay
DELWP
Department of Environment, Land, Water, and Planning
FOI
Features of Interest
GBHS
Greater Bendigo Housing Strategy
GBRS
Greater Bendigo Residential Strategy
GIS
Geographic Information Centre
LSIO
Land Subject to Inundation Overlay
PPRZ
Public Park and Recreation Zone
TOD
Transport-Oriented Development
UDP
Urban Development Program
UGA
Urban Growth Area
UGB
Urban Growth Boundary
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Introduction Background
Greater Bendigo (hereafter Bendigo) is located in the centre of Victoria, 150 km northwest of Melbourne, covering around 3,000 square kilometres area. Currently Bendigo hosts around 111,783 people in 2016 in which 85% of them reside in urban Bendigo making it the third largest urban area in Victoria (BCC, 2017). Historically, the first European settlement in Bendigo could be traced back to the Gold Rush era in the 1850s that triggered the migration from China, Indonesia, Japan, and Germany (Carthew & Allan, 2005). This encouraged the development in Bendigo along with the bloomed industries. However, the growth in Bendigo was unstable (Chen, 2016). During the downfall of gold deposits, the population growth slowly and the development stagnated. It was until the industries were replaced by service industry— retail, health, and education—that Bendigo started to regain its economic pulse. Currently, Bendigo has been designated as the future growth in regional Victoria. Bendigo is projected to have the third largest growth in regional Victoria from 2011 to 2031 (DELWP, 2016) with 85% of the population reside in urban Bendigo (BCC, 2017). This growth is seen as both opportunities and challenges because it can accelerate the prosperity but at the same time, if it is not managed, it will generate urban sprawl and environment degradation. Currently, through the UDP, Bendigo has adopted GBRS (BCC, 2014) and GBHS (BCC, 2016) to address the population growth issue. In both strategies, Bendigo has set four key objectives: Compact Bendigo, to avoid urban sprawl and focus on planning UGA within UGB and second-tier cities such as Marong, Heathcote, and Elmore; Connected Bendigo, to place UGA along major transport corridor and nodes; Healthy Bendigo, to ensure UGA is located close to open spaces and avoid natural hazard; and Housing Bendigo, to create accessible UGA from activity centre. All the objectives have one underlying concept, to create a 10-minute neighbourhood where people can access their daily needs by walking or cycling. Figure 1 illustrates the existing location, context, and geographical condition of Greater Bendigo that shows the current urban area and UGB; existing railway and rail station; natural features such as forest; watercourse; and water area; and towns. This project is aiming to focus on the area inside the UGB.
GIS in Spatial Planning
Land suitability mapping and analysis has become one of the most useful functions of GIS operation in planning (Collins et al., 2001; Malczewski, 2004; Brail & Klosterman, 2001). Steiner defines it as “the process of determining the fitness, or the appropriateness, of a given tract of a given tract of land for a specified use” (2008, p.188). In other word, it is the analysis to select area based on specific spatial requirement. Malczewski (2004) argues that GIS has become substantial components in urban, regional, and environmental planning, such as for environmental impact assessment, agricultural land suitability, and most appropriate site for future growth. Steiner (2008) articulates the use of GIS for planning for future rural housing development in Whitman County, Washington, USA. In that area, agricultural lands and family farms are highly valuable and vital for the community. As a result, criteria are made to provide
5 low-density housing by restricting them from encroaching the farmlands. Hence, GIS-based analysis can be an effective tool for selecting future growth area. Selecting suitable land for future residential area cannot rely on one requirement, it uses multicriteria evaluation. On each criterion, specific requirements are set based on the project objectives. Jankowski and Richard (1994) points out that weighted overlay can be used for multi-criteria evaluation because it combines all the factors from each criterion into single composite map. Moreover, weighted overlay allow planners to control the influence of each criterion, thus, the same requirements could generate different maps due to different weighing (Lewis et al., 2004). Chen (2016) demonstrates the use of weighted overlay to determine the most suitable land for future residential area in Greater Bendigo. He uses weighted overlay to align with the key priorities set by local government for the future growth of Bendigo. Therefore, weighted overlay is appropriate for multi-criteria suitability analysis.
6 Figure 2. Map of Greater Bendigo
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Project Objective There are two objectives of this project. Firstly, to conduct land suitability analysis using GIS and its tools. Secondly, to select suitable land for future residential area in Bendigo. BCC (2016) estimates that the population in Bendigo will grow by 46,000 to 156,000 in 2036. Therefore, Bendigo needs to supply approximately 18,000 houses for the next twenty years which is equivalent to providing 1,800 ha residential area. This project will address the four key objectives in GBRS and GBRS—Compact, Connected, Healthy, and Housing Bendigo—as the main objective because such suitability analysis needs thorough and integrated approach. However, this project will emphasises GBRS’ main vision which is to promote a compact development within the UGB and encourage well-connected small towns, particularly Marong, Elmore, and Heathcote. The compactness and connectedness will be addressed by focusing on proximity to activity centre, transport corridors and nodes, and open spaces. Moreover, some future activity centres are proposed in the satellite towns, making it another objective for this project. Based on the objectives, five criteria are established to achieve the compactness of Bendigo.
Criteria 1. Proximity to Transport
Distance to transport corridors, such as major road, and transport nodes, such as rail station and bus stop, is critical for the compactness and connectedness in Bendigo. Having proximity to transport infrastructures not only can prevent the urban sprawl growth but increase the connectivity and mobility. Another benefit is to promote more sustainable mode of transport and discourage automobility use. Moreover, GBHS (2016) has set TOD and 10-minute neighbourhood as its main implementation theme and rail station is designated as the primary activity centre in the future.
2. Healthy Neighbourhood
As one of the key objectives, Bendigo needs to ensure the wellbeing of its future residents. Open space has long been observed to improve not only physical but mental wellbeing. Bendigo already has the existing green corridor served as public park and recreation area. Thus, having proximity to PPRZ is pivotal. Another sub-criteria is by locating future residential area close to sport facility, such as training track, swimming pool, sports ground, and sports court.
3. Avoidance of Risk
Out of the whole criteria, this is the most critical aspect that should be considered by planners and local governments. This criterion will recognise area affected by natural hazard, such as flood-prone and bushfire-prone land, as restricted area for future housing development. Data from LSIO and BMO were chosen because they already consider the projected risk-prone area in the future.
4. Proximity to Activity Centre
Hospital and education centre, particularly Bendigo Hospital and La Trobe University, have become both activity centre and employment hub in Bendigo. Moreover, most of the health
8 and education centres are located in the established area, specifically inside the UGB. Therefore, having close distance to activity centre could not only increase the opportunity to jobs but create more compact development.
5. Compact Neighbourhood
The main goal is to locate future residential area in the closest proximity to urban area and established towns—Marong, Elmore, and Heathcote—as specified in GBRS vision. Area around biggest urban area, in City of Bendigo, will ensure the future residential land to be within the UGB. Development close to Marong, Elmore, and Heathcote to achieve the connectedness of Bendigo and distribute the development intensity.
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Data Collection and Intermediate Process Data Collection
Some of the input data and layers are provided by the subject coordinator while some are collected from Victorian Government Data Directory as outsourced data. Value from outsourced data need to be selected as needed to create extracted data, for example ‘PPRZ’ value from ‘Zone’ layer needs to be extracted and exported into new data or layer (Table 1). Table 1. Input data for land suitability analysis Criteria
Sub-criteria
Input Data/Layers Initial Data Extracted Data Proximity to Proximity to Bus Bus Stop Transport Stop Proximity to Major Major Road Road Proximity to Rail Rail Station Station Healthy Proximity to PPRZ Zone PPRZ Neighbourhood Proximity to Sport FOI Facility
Avoidance Risk
of Avoid Bushfire- Overlay Prone Area Avoid Flood-Prone Overlay Area
Proximity to Proximity to FOI Activity Centre Education Centre Proximity Hospital
to FOI
Compact Proximity to Towns Neighbourhood Established Towns
Sport Facility
BMO
Data Source Data provided through LMS Data provided through LMS Data provided through LMS Victorian Government Data Directory (data.vic.gov.au) Victorian Government Data Directory (data.vic.gov.au)
Victorian Government Data Directory (data.vic.gov.au) LSIO Victorian Government Data Directory (data.vic.gov.au) Education Centre Victorian Government Data Directory (data.vic.gov.au) Hospital Victorian Government Data Directory (data.vic.gov.au) Marong, Elmore, Victorian Heathcote Government Data Directory (data.vic.gov.au)
10 Proximity to Urban Urban Area
-
Data provided through LMS
Intermediate Process
This section mainly presents the raster data of proximity to the sub-criteria except for BMO and LSIO that are used to produce suitability range in the Reclassify map. BMO and LSIO map shows the restricted and suitable area. The proximity to sub-criteria used Euclidean distance for the analysis and were divided into equal range. Euclidean distance was chosen because it measures desired distance from any points to the closest source thus it is suitable for creating proximity map. Euclidean distance also considers the number and the distribution or the actual distance between sources. The Euclidean distance was classified into ten classes and the measurement number was rounded up into equal interval to create even calculation. This is because in multi-criteria analysis, the number of source data varies, as well as the distribution. For example, the number of hospital and sport centre in the analysis are different. Therefore, having equal interval will be equal to all the criteria. The Euclidean distance analysis then was reclassified into new value ranging from 1 to 10 following the class made in Euclidean distance. Number 1 is for the distance closest to source while number 10 is for the furthest. Since proximity to source is the focus in the analysis, the closer distance was more suitable. Therefore, number 1 means the most suitable area, while 10 the least suitable one. It is important to be consistent in numbering each new value because the Reclassify map will be then used for further analysis when all the criteria were overlaid and evaluated.
1. Proximity to Transport
Bendigo has high capacity of public transport, such as bus (Figure 3) and train service (Figure 4). Buses and trains primarily operate within urban centre and along the major road corridor (Figure 5). This shows that major road, trains, and buses have already complement each other which can create better connectedness in the region. Furthermore, proximity to transport indicates that the development close to urban area is more desirable to achieve more compact development
2. Healthy Neighbourhood
Figure 6 shows that PPRZ is also concentrated in the urban area with some small patches in outer towns. Meanwhile, the sport facility has extensive range in the region but still indicates the high concentration in urban area and a few established towns. The figures illustrate how Euclidean distance differs based on the number and distribution of the source point. Moreover, still, the Reclassify maps depict that the development closer to urban area is more desirable.
3. Avoidance of Risk
This criteria do not use Euclidean distance and do not have the same class for the Reclassify map in the analysis because BMO and LSIO map only shows which area is allowed and not allowed. The area where BMO and LSIO lay on is restricted to avoid the risk of natural hazard. Figure 7 shows that urban area is encircled by bushfire-prone area, while in Figure 8, LSIO also is concentrated close to urban area. This indicates that, although development closer to urban
11 area is desirable, it encounters threat from natural disaster. The Reclassify map shows which area is restricted and which is allowed.
4. Proximity to Activity Centre
As the main employment hub, education centre are quiet well distributed although Figure 9 indicates the concentration around urban area. Meanwhile, hospital are only located in the urban area of Bendigo and Heathcote (Figure 10) indicating that development closer to urban area are more suitable for future residents. The Euclidean distance map illustrates how the distance changes according to the distribution of the source. Hospital has bigger distance as it is only located in two points while the education centre has much smaller distance due its distribution.
5. Compact Neighbourhood
Both Figure 11 and Figure 12 show the attempt to avoid more urban sprawl by selecting area closer to urban Bendigo, Marong, Elmore, and Heathcote as more suitable area for future residential development. Urban sprawl will generate increase in traffic flow, traffic congestion, environmental degradation, and biodiversity loss (Chen, 2016).
12 Figure 2. Proximity to Bus Stop
13 Figure 3. Proximity to Major Road
14 Figure 4. Proximity to Rail Station
15 Figure 5. Proximity to PPRZ
16 Figure 6. Proximity to Sport Facility
17 Figure 7. Avoid Bushfire-Prone Area
18 Figure 8. Avoid Flood-Prone Area
19 Figure 9. Proximity to Education Centre
20 Figure 10. Proximity to Hospital
21 Figure 11. Proximity to Established Towns
22 Figure 12. Proximity to Urban Area
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Result and Analysis Weighted Overlay
Based on the reclassified input layers and the multi-criteria analysis literature review, a weighted overlay analysis was conducted using ESRI ArcGIS version 10.6.1. Table 2 illustrates the weighing of each criteria and sub-criteria based on the importance, priority, and influence that have been drawn in GBRS and GBHS. Avoiding risk-prone area is the most critical for future residential area that weighs 40%. This is because safety has become the main concern for residents and living in safe area from natural hazard can reduce the impact on property damage, property loss, and social problem such as illness, disease, or fatality due to flood and bushfire. The second highest criteria is Proximity to Transport that weighs 30%. Since transport service in Bendigo can address both compactness and connectedness, therefore it has a huge contribution. The other three criteria have equal percentage of 10%. Most of the sources from these three criteria focus on compactness, moreover the vast majority of them are already located in urban area making the combination of them creates strong contribution on overall compactness. The percentage of each sub-criterion is equally distributed because each has the same level of importance. Table 2. Contribution of criteria in weighted overlay analysis Criteria Proximity to Transport
Healthy Neighbourhood Avoidance of Risk
Percentage (%) 30
10 40
Proximity to Activity 10 Centre Compact 10 Neighbourhood Total
100
Sub-criteria
Percentage (%) Proximity to Bus Stop 10 Proximity to Major Road 10 Proximity to Rail Station 10 Proximity to PPRZ 5 Proximity to Sport Facility 5 Avoid Bushfire-Prone Area 20 Avoid Flood-Prone Area 20 Proximity to Education Centre 5 Proximity to Hospital 5 Proximity to Established 5 Towns Proximity to Urban Area 5 100
Figure 13 shows the final result of weighted overlay analysis. It indicates that the most suitable land for future residential development is primarily located within the UGB. There is large piece of area that is located outside the UGB but very close to urban area and UGB which is in Marong. There is no most suitable area located in both Elmore and Heathcote.
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Figure 13. Weighted Overlay Result
25 Final Suitability Map
The weighted overlay map then was converted into polygon and erased with urban area because urban area is already well-established. Thus, by avoiding urban area, the future residential area could be the new suburb where a room for growth is more possible. The remaining area was exploded into single part to select the two biggest area to accommodate 18,000 houses. There are two biggest area, one is outside the UGB and the other is inside, indicated by UGA 1 and UGA 2 respectively (Figure 14). Consequently, since some of the UGA 2 area crossed the UGB, it was then clipped by UGB to ensure all the area was inside UGB. UGA 1 is located in Marong and has the area of around thirteen square kilometres while UGA 2 has the area of around ten square kilometres. Thus, the total suitability area will have approximately additional seven square kilometres. This extra area is seen needed to prevent the unpredicted occurrence if the growth rate is much higher that what has been projected. The two UGAs are selected to achieve the main vision of GBRS, which is to locate the future residential area “inside the existing defines Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) area and encourage and provide for further residential development of the City’s townships, in particular Marong, Elmore, Axedale, and Heathcote” (BCC, 2014, p.7). Therefore, it is logical to have the suitability area inside the UGB and in Marong. Moreover, Marong is one of the most important locations in Bendigo because, although it is outside the UGB, it lays really close to it and the urban area. Marong also has an existing railway, green corridor and a proposed rail station which is designated as the new TOD area and main activity centre (BCC, 2014). In other words, the new development in Marong will encourage the demand of better public transport services and basic amenities, thus will even trigger the development of new rail station and activity centre that will improve the connectivity between Marong and the rest of Bendigo. As a result, having selected both UGAs will achieve the compactness and connectedness of future development of Bendigo.
26 Figure 14. Final suitability map
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Conclusion and Recommendation Conclusion
This project presents some of the strengths of GIS-based application for land suitability analysis. Firstly, GIS is a good tool to assess land suitability analysis because it allow multicriteria evaluation based on the spatial reference and attributes. GIS also allow planners to adjust the process flexibly and efficiently by having an organised procedure in model builder (Figure 15). GIS can communicate the result quite well by creating maps with appropriate information directly. Secondly, Euclidean distance can be used for criteria that focus on proximity to source points because the distance will consider the number and distribution of source points. This is seen appropriate because it generates more even distance distribution. Thirdly, weighted overlay can effectively be used for project with multiple criteria. Chen (2016) argue that it can manipulate and adjust the influence and percentage of each criterion, therefore the process will be more flexible and faster. Fourthly, selecting criteria is the most critical steps foe land suitability analysis as it will determine how the final result will be. Criteria must be selected carefully based on the need of the area. Since GBHS and GBRS are two overarching documents for future housing strategy, it is imperative to follow the goals and objectives of both documents. Weighing the criteria is pivotal as well. Thus, justification shall be made in weighing the criteria, therefore the ‘most suitable’ land is the real most needed and suitable area for future residents. Lastly, focusing on development inside the UGB is essential, but improving connectivity between towns is important as well. Therefore, choosing Marong as one of the main area for future growth is justified because not only it is closed to UGB and urban area, it is designated as one of the main activity centres in Bendigo.
Recommendation
Based on the analysis, several recommendations are made to improve the process for land suitability analysis. 1. Since Euclidean distance only focuses on distance and proximity but not accessibility, a network analysis can be further conducted to assess the accessibility to source point. Accessibility considers the barriers to approach source point, therefore it will be more accurate. Moreover, one of the key implementation plans of Bendigo is 10-minute neighbourhood. By having network analysis, it will be possible to calculate ten-minute walking distance to source point that includes the barriers. 2. This project is to supply housings in the next twenty years. It is important to integrate other Bendigo’s strategic plan such as Greening Greater Bendigo, Plan Greater Bendigo, Commercial Land and Activity Centre Strategy 2015, and Greater Bendigo Health and Wellbeing Plan 2017-2021. Therefore, future activity centres, green corridors, hospitals, and other feature of interests could be considered in the process to generate more integrated result for long-term plan.
28 Figure 15. Flowchart
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Reference List Bendigo City Council (BCC). (2017). City of Greater Bendigo Annual Report 2016-2017. Retrieved from https://www.bendigo.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/201710/Annual%20Report_A4%20Single%20Pages%20for%20Web.pdf Brail, R. K., & Klosterman, R. E. (2001). Planning support systems: Integrating geographic information systems, models, and visualization tools. ESRI, Inc.. Carthew S, Allan M (2005). Strategic Planning in Regional Cities - New Conceptions. State of Australian Cities, pp. 1-12. Carthew, S., & Allan, M. (2005). Strategic planning in regional cities-new conceptions. State of Australian Cities, 1-12. Chen, S. (2016). Land-use suitability analysis for urban development in Regional Victoria: a case study of Bendigo. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning, 9(4), 47-58. Collins, M. G., Steiner, F. R., & Rushman, M. J. (2001). Land-use suitability analysis in the United States: historical development and promising technological achievements. Environmental management, 28(5), 611-621. Data.vic.gov.au Department of Environment, Land, Water, and Planning (DELWP). (2016). Victoria in Future 2016: Population and household projections to 2051. Retrieved from https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0030/97608/Victoria-in-Future-2016FINAL-web.pdf Jankowski, P., & Richard, L. (1994). Integration of GIS-based suitability analysis and multicriteria evaluation in a spatial decision support system for route selection. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 21(3), 323-340. Lewis, S. M., Fitts, G., Kelly, M., & Dale, L. (2014). A fuzzy logic-based spatial suitability model for drought-tolerant switchgrass in the United States. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 103, 39-47. Malczewski, J. (2004). GIS-based land-use suitability analysis: a critical overview. Progress in planning, 62(1), 3-65. Steiner, Frederick. 2008. The Living Landscape: an Ecological Approach to Landscape Planning (2nd Ed). McGraw-Hill, New York.
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