The International Relations Review Winter 2012

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Building the Next Financial Bubble: A Look into the Real Estate Market in China Exclusive Interview: Venezuelan Opposition Leader Henrique Capriles and His Plan for the Nation Greece’s Financial Crisis and its Implications for the International Community

Winter 2012

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GRACIELA MARIÑO, COM ’15

Henrique Capriles: A Contender’s Vision In this exclusive feature, IRR staff writer Graciela Mariùo interviewed Henrique Capriles Radonski, who commented on his campaign goals and the future he envisions for Venezuela. Page 12

7 The Power of Investment

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Winter 2012

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PHOTO CREDIT: HELENA CARPIO, CGS ’14 Europe’s highest-reaching railway system in Switzerland travels up to 3,454 meters above sea level, taking passengers to the Jungfrau ski region. People can board the train from Interlaken, Grindelwald and Wengen.

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PHOTO CREDIT: SOFIYA MAHDI, CAS ’14 Partial view of the Kremlin in Moscow. Considered a World Heritage Site by UNESCO since 1990, the Kremlin became a landmark of Russian strength and autocracy after the 1917 Revolution when the government was transferred from St. Petersburg to the Kremlin in Moscow.

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PHOTO CREDIT: SOFIYA MAHDI, CAS ’14 St. Basil Cathedral in Moscow. As a symbol of native history and culture for the Russian public, this cathedral and other monuments in Moscow stand in sharp contrast with the new wave of political uncertainty that surrounds the current administration.

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“Russia’s history does not have to determine its future. The outbreak of protests in Russia proves that perhaps theory should not be so deterministic.â€? DQG PDGH D PRFNHU\ RI WKH 5XVVLDQ V\VWHP 7KLV KDV VKRZQ WKDW SROLWLFDO FOHDYDJHV FDQ GHYHORS DQG SROLWLFDO SUHIHUHQFHV FDQ EHFRPH XQVWDEOH (YHU\ IDFWRU WKDW VKRXOG OHDG WR DXWKRULWDULDQLVP LQ 5XVVLD FDQ DOVR OHDG WR GHPRFUDF\ 7KH SRZHU RI WKH HOLWHV can  lead  to  popular  discontent,  indicating  SRODUL]DWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH UXOLQJ FODVV DQG SRSXODWLRQ WKH RSSRVLWH RI DSDWK\ $Q DXWKRULWDULDQ OHJDF\ FDQ IRVWHU HYHQ PRUH IUXVWUDWLRQ RYHU 5XVVLDÂśV IDLOXUH WR overcome  its  past,  encouraging  the  people  to  bring  about  political  participation  the  FRXQWU\ KDV QHYHU UHDOO\ VHHQ 7KH H[LVWHQFH RI H[WUD FRQVWLWXWLRQDO SRZHUV FDQ FUHDWH HQRXJK DQJHU WKDW YRWHUV ZLOO QRW PHUHO\ VXSSRUW WKH RSSRVLWLRQ EXW EHFRPH LW 5XVVLDÂśV KLVWRU\ GRHV QRW KDYH WR GHWHUPLQH LWV IXWXUH 7KH RXWEUHDN RI SURWHVWV LQ 5XVVLD SURYHV WKDW SHUKDSV theory  is  not  so  deterministic,  especially  in  UHJDUGV WR 5XVVLD %DVHG RQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO UHODWLRQV WKHRU\ 5XVVLD VKRXOG QRW KDYH EHFRPH D GHPRFUDF\ LQ WKH V 14  It  GLG KRZHYHU 5XVVLD KDV GHÂżHG DQDO\VLV DQG SUHGLFWLRQV EHIRUH ,W VKRXOG QRW EH VR VXUSULVLQJ WKDW LW KDV GRQH VR DJDLQ

All  citations  for  articles  in  the  winter  2012  issue  of  the  International  Relations  Review  can  be  found  online.  Visit  the  Boston  University  International  Affairs  Association  website  at  buiaa.org/ir-­review/  to  access  the  bibliographical  information.

PHOTO CREDIT: ALESSANDRA HARTKOPF, CAS ’12

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PHOTO CREDIT: MOLLY MASTERSON, CAS ’13 View of the coastal Chinese megacity of Shanghai, one of the fastest growing metropolises in the last two decades and the most populous city in the world.

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PHOTO CREDIT: AMRITA SINGH, CAS ’15 Above: children in Ghana play outside of their school. Below: young girl walks down path carrying materials. One of the most important resources a country can use for its development is human capital. By investing in sectors such as education, Ghana is getting ahead in the race toward economic development.

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PHOTO CREDIT: MOLLY MASTERSON, CAS ’13

PHOTO CREDIT: MOLLY MASTERSON, CAS ’13 Street views of Shanghai. In a city of over 23 million inhabitants, where owning property has become a new form to acquire social status and security, a bubble in the real estate market could be disastrous.

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IWHU PRUH WKDQ \HDUV RI DXWRFUDWLF UXOH economic  deterioration,  rising  crime  rates  and  increasing  poverty,  Venezuelans  may  have  D IDLU FKDQFH WR GHWHUPLQH WKHLU SROLWLFDO IXWXUH 2Q 2FW WKH SHRSOH ZLOO FKRRVH EHWZHHQ WKH VRFLDOLVW RULHQWHG JRYHUQPHQW RI President  Hugo  Chåvez  and  the  IUHH PDUNHW GHPRFUDWLF LGHDOV RI WKH RSSRVLWLRQ FDQGLGDWH 7KH 0HVD GH OD 8QLGDG 'HPRFUDWLFD WKH SODWIRUP IRU democratic  unity,  is  campaigning  IRU +HQULTXH &DSULOHV 5DGRQVNL ZKR ZRQ 08'œV SULPDU\ HOHFWLRQV RQ )HE 5DGRQVNL competed  against   several  political  OHDGHUV LQFOXGLQJ IRUPHU &DUDFDV *RY 'LHJR $UULD 1DWLRQDO $VVHPEO\ 0LUDQGD VWDWH 5HS 0DUtD &RULQD 0DFKDGR IRUPHU 9HQH]XHODQ &RQJUHVV 6HQ 3DEOR 0HGLQD DQG =XOLD *RY 3DEOR 3pUH] &DSULOHV JRYHUQRU RI Miranda  and  arguably  the  most  SRSXODU FDQGLGDWH ZDV DOVR ZHOO NQRZQ DV WKH IRUPHU PD\RU RI %DUXWD DQG UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RI WKH 9HQH]XHODQ &RQJUHVV &DSULOHV ZRQ WKH PDMRULW\ YRWH ZLWK SHUFHQW 3pUH] FDPH LQ VHFRQG ZLWK SHUFHQW RI WKH YRWH KDOI DV PXFK DV &DSULOHV 0DFKDGR IROORZHG ZLWK SHUFHQW $UULD ZLWK SHUFHQW DQG 0HGLQD ZLWK

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PHOTO CREDIT: HELENA CARPIO, CGS ’12 Plaza Altamira, located in the Chacao district of Caracas. In the past, this plaza has served as a hub for political demonstrations for both the Chavistas and opposition. In 2002, three citizens were massacred while protesting against Hugo Chavez, and, in 2004, an opposition protester was shot down by government supporters while protesting the presidential referendum results.

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the  trained  personnel  and  technology  to  LPSURYH WKH DFDGHPLF GHYHORSPHQW RI VWXGHQWV :KDW LV \RXU SODQ WR LPSURYH WKH education  system  in  Venezuela?

 Capriles 2XU SURSRVDOœV PDLQ REMHFWLYH is  to  protect  and  guarantee  the  right  to  OLIH WKH SHUVRQDO LQWHJULW\ DQG SURSHUWLHV RI DOO 9HQH]XHODQV 7KHUH LV DQ DUUD\ RI measures  that  can  be  taken,  both  in  the  Capriles 2XU JRYHUQPHQW SODQ VKRUW DQG ORQJ UXQ ZLWKRXW GLVFULPLQDWLQJ contemplates  substantially  increasing  the  WKH DUHD RU VRFLDO FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH FLWL]HQV DFFHVV SHUPDQHQFH DQG SHUVHFXWLRQ RI VWXGHQWV LQ DOO WKH GLIIHUHQW HGXFDWLRQDO :H GRQœW ZDQW PRUH GHDWKV EHFDXVH RI SURJUDPV RI WKH 9HQH]XHODQ V\VWHP 7KH lost  bullets,  or  any  procedural  delays  that  TXDOLW\ RI FXUUHQW HGXFDWLRQDO SODQV ZLOO YLWLDWH WKH OHJDO V\VWHP ,Q RUGHU WR DFKLHYH EH VLJQL¿FDQWO\ LPSURYHG WKLV ZH ZLOO FRRUGLQDWH DQG VROLGLI\ D XQLIRUP YLVLRQ RI FRXUVH DOZD\V WDNLQJ :H ZLOO DOVR HQFRXUDJH VWUDWHJLHV WKDW into  consideration  the  particular  realities  DUH LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKH VRFLDO UHDOLWLHV RI HYHU\ ORFDOLW\ UHJDUGLQJ VHFXULW\ DQG IDFHG LQ 9HQH]XHOD DQG WKDW DUH OLQNHG involving  every  responsible  institution  in  ZLWK WKH QDWLRQœV GHYHORSPHQW SODQV WKH ¿JKW DJDLQVW FULPH 7KLV ZLOO EH SRVVLEOH WKURXJK LQWHJUDO SURJUDPV ZKHUH WKH VWXGHQWV DUH WKH IRFXV *RYHUQRUV PDMRUV PHPEHUV DQG RI WKH OHDUQLQJ SURFHVV IURP SUHVFKRRO LQVWLWXWLRQV RI WKH MXGLFLDO EUDQFK DQG education  to  college-­level  education;͞  and  GLVWULFW DWWRUQH\V ZLOO H[HUFLVH WKHLU WDVNV WKURXJK WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI VWUDWHJLHV LQ D FRRUGLQDWHG PDQQHU WKURXJK XQL¿HG WKDW ZLOO GLUHFWO\ LPSDFW WKH UHGXFWLRQ DFWLRQV $IWHU LGHQWLI\LQJ WKH GLIIHUHQW RI YLROHQFH GUXJ FRQVXPSWLRQ WKH RUJDQL]HG FULPH JURXSV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU SUHYHQWLRQ RI WHHQDJH SUHJQDQF\ DQG WKH PDMRU FULPLQDO RSHUDWLRQV WKH\ ZLOO EH LQFLGHQFH RI VH[XDOO\ WUDQVPLWWHG GLVHDVHV LPPHGLDWHO\ GLVPDQWOHG 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ QXWULWLRQ DQG VFKRODUVKLS SURJUDPV ZLOO DOVR EH LPSURYHG LQ TXDOLW\ To the right: Petroleums De Venezuela DQG FRYHUDJH

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headquarters displays a banner of incumbent Hugo Chavez, which reads in Spanish “Move forward, commander.â€? The banner is meant to show the company’s support for Chavez as he battles cancer. 7KLV H[HPSOLĂ€HV WKH VWDWHŇ‹V XVH RI public resources to promote Chavez’s candidacy, which is the largest challenge Capriles faces in the election. PHOTO CREDIT/HELENA CARPIO, CGS ’12

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Steps toward Intervention in Syria August 2011

PHOTO CREDIT: HELENA CARPIO, CGS ’12 The national headquarters of Capriles’s campaign, known as the Comando Tricolor (the tri-color command). This building houses representatives from all of the opposition parties involved in the MUD.

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After months of protests and military backlash, U.S. President Barack Obama and allies call for Syrian President Assad to step down.

October 2011 Russia and China veto the U.N. resolution condemning Syria. Meanwhile, internal and exiled opposition activists form Syrian National Council.

November 2011 Army defectors target a military base near Damascus in what is considered the Free Syrian $UP\ҋV PRVW KLJK SURÀOH DWWDFN since the start of protests. Government supporters attack foreign embassies.

December 2011 The uprising’s death toll exceeds 5,000. In addition, two suicide bombs outside security buildings in Damascus kill 44 people. The opposition suspects the government. $UDE /HDJXH RIÀFLDOV DUULYH DV part of Assad’s agreement to allow the organization monitor Syria. Thousands of protesters gather in Homs to greet them.

January 2012 A suicide bomber kills 26 in Damascus, to which the government responds by FODLPLQJ DQ ´LURQ ÀVWµ DSSURDFK The Arab League suspends its monitoring after violence increases.

February 2012 Russia and China block a U.N. Security Council draft resolution on Syria, as the government increases bombing of Homs and other cities.

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Winter 2012

Staff Editorial: $O 4DHGD·V $OOLDQFH ZLWK $O 6KDEDE *URZWK LQ 0LOLWDQF\ RU ,QFUHDVHG 0HGLD ([SRVXUH" Al-Qaeda, a global terrorist network, announced on Feb. 10 in a video released to the public that it had added more than 14,000 new troops by merging with Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahideen, more commonly known as al-Shabab. The video featured al-Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri. He stated, “I give you good news today that will make the faithful happy and the Crusaders cringe: al Shabab in Somalia has joined al Qaeda,” ABC news reported. Al-Shabab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane responded to this announcement, by “pledging obedience” to his leadership. Al-Shabab, a Somalia-based terrorist group, controls most southern and central areas of Somalia. The organization faced pressure from African Union troops concerning their supposed claims to territory within Somalia, resulting in the organization joining forces with al-Qaeda. Another probable cause for the merge was Kenya and Ethiopia’s attempts to push back Islamists in the short term by sending aid and forces into Somalia along the Kenyan and Ethiopian borders. AlShabab’s decline in resources gave them another incentive to make this move, as members have not received any financial aid or support from other nations or organizations. A number of Somali citizens marched through Mogadishu on Feb. 15 in

response to the terrorist union. “Al-Qaeda should stop meddling with Somalia's affairs and leave our country," protestor Suleiman Mumin said to African news source Magharebia. Mumin stated Somalia is ready to fight back against “al-Qaeda and al-Shabab’s 'no to life' in Somalia.” Somali Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, president of Somalia, also announced to the protestors that people residing in the country no longer tolerate al-Qaeda’s violence. These citizen-organized protests were a glimpse of hope for the infamous “failed-state” that has struggled to unite. Mainstream media outlets such as BBC, ABC and The Telegraph, have shed light on the importance of alQaeda infiltrating deeper into the African continent. However, multiple African and Middle-Eastern news sources conveyed that al-Qaeda’s presence in the region is nothing new. These sources reported that al-Qaeda and al-Shabab have been historically tied and that the recent merge announcement seemed like a clever ploy to get a weakened al-Qaeda back into the headlines. Despite what major news outlets have expressed, the announcement may be nothing more than a desperate act to make al-Qaeda appear more relevant in the global arena. Al-Qaeda’s leadership has died down since Osama bin Laden’s demise last May. With Syria and the Arab spring dominating

recent news coverage in the Middle East and Africa, there has been little room for alQaeda to stir fear. The publicity stunt may have gotten the press members wanted, but it has not gained the same attention it did in previous years. That, if anything, should prove the weakness of the organization. Al-Qaeda’s support from international allies also declined. BBC reported that Hamas and Hezbollah, have begun sever ties with al-Qaeda. As a result of the decrease in leadership and media exposure, there has also been a corresponding decrease in militancy. By forming an alliance with al-Shabab, alQaeda has not only increased its militant base, but also gained much-needed media attention. The Western world’s concerns involving terrorism may have prevented the media from identifying the merge as a strategic response to low numbers, rather than a sign of growth. Nevertheless, al-Qaeda’s next step remains unclear, as does its future. As the mainstream media continues to highlight the significance of this recent merge, it is now essential to analyze the motives behind this recent alliance. Perhaps they might reflect alQaeda’s search for a boost in its morale or an increase in its exposure. As of today, the effects this alliance will have on Somalis or al-Shabab occupied territories remains uncertain.

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